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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #8,281
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:43pm Aug 1, 2013 2:43pm
Nope...No, Chubbly...I want you to use your friendly voice from now on...cool
  • #8,282
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:49pm Aug 1, 2013 2:49pm
The tiger by the tail was tame last night...telegraphed it's move from the get go....a trained monkey could trade that session or two. did you know one can put 48% of the account on a trade allottment with a 6 pip stoploss.
  • #8,283
  • Aug 1, 2013 3:26pm Aug 1, 2013 3:26pm
gj continuing up in a few hours
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #8,284
  • Aug 1, 2013 3:38pm Aug 1, 2013 3:38pm
Hey all... got stopped out of my shorts last night for +50. I didn't take any longs because I was out having ridiculously good sushi, sake, beer, and later some Macallan 15. Our friend took us out to let us know he wanted us all to be groomsmen at his wedding this March. So it was a good time.

The rally in GBP/JPY has been interesting, but looking at the overall picture... I'm not convinced. I'm currently flat, but considering a short position. Here's a look at the daily:

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Basically, the daily trend channel was obviously broken, and this could be little more than a retest of that support turned resistance. If so, a logical target would be ~147; if we break lower than that... watch out!

NFP tomorrow, so hopefully we'll get an indication of whether she wants to go higher or crap out on us.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #8,285
  • Edited 3:59pm Aug 1, 2013 3:44pm | Edited 3:59pm
Quoting Geppy
Hey all... got stopped out of my shorts last night for +50. I didn't take any longs because I was out having ridiculously good sushi, sake, beer, and later some Macallan 15. Our friend took us out to let us know he wanted us all to be groomsmen at his wedding this March. So it was a good time. The rally in GBP/JPY has been interesting, but looking at the overall picture... I'm not convinced. I'm currently flat, but considering a short position. Here's a look at the daily: {image} Basically, the daily trend channel was obviously broken, and this...

Sounds like a fun night

I'm expecting some take profit this session on UJ. Might go down to 98.84 tonight. Hell of a rally after 97.55 base held!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,286
  • Aug 1, 2013 3:51pm Aug 1, 2013 3:51pm
Quoting KillerWhale
gj continuing up in a few hours {image}
Or not
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #8,287
  • Edited 4:33pm Aug 1, 2013 4:21pm | Edited 4:33pm
Quoting Chubbly
Losing more money I see. Keep up the good work. You are making my wallet fat. Like I said earlier, I just trade the opposite of why you recommend and I win.
No, actually. I'm not losing, I'm coming back. But way to assume you know what you're talking about. I have yet to see a single decent post or analysis from you, but... I guess I'll keep waiting for that.

I wish we could ban schmucks like these. And pardon my language, but I feel I have good reason to say that this time... but I'd prefer not to have to say that at all.

However, I'm glad that you are finding my analysis so useful
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,288
  • Aug 1, 2013 4:44pm Aug 1, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} No, actually. I'm not losing, I'm coming back. But way to assume you know what you're talking about. I have yet to see a single decent post or analysis from you, but... I guess I'll keep waiting for that. I wish we could ban schmucks like these. And pardon my language, but I feel I have good reason to say that this time... but I'd prefer not to have to say that at all. However, I'm glad that you are finding my analysis so useful

I can ban schmucks... just sayin'
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #8,289
  • Aug 1, 2013 5:03pm Aug 1, 2013 5:03pm
signal say down this time....
  • #8,290
  • Edited 7:04pm Aug 1, 2013 6:34pm | Edited 7:04pm
Hey, have a looky at a 12H chart.....g/j....big time....MT-4 has the ability to change charts to any time frame you could want....
...
there is a huge frikkin tweezers bottom...the size of New York City
  • #8,291
  • Edited 6:53pm Aug 1, 2013 6:41pm | Edited 6:53pm
So, GJ sits exactly on its lower channel rising TL, having risen to retest it. There may be new resistance about 20 pips higher.

GU appears to be resuming its downtrend.

UJ has been looking bullish, but sits now at its daily gann and (I think) has new resistance about 15 pips above it. UJ is somewhat in the same situation as GJ was about a week ago today. When UJ support at the 98 level broke by about 20 pips a couple of days ago, I suspect that it signalled the support line was no longer valid (or needed??)

All up, I still think we're heading down soon for the next wave of the downtrend correction into the low/mid 140's, but if the nominal TL does break and hold, it's obviously a different story.

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  • #8,292
  • Aug 1, 2013 9:10pm Aug 1, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting Geppy
Hey all... got stopped out of my shorts last night for +50. I didn't take any longs because I was out having ridiculously good sushi, sake, beer, and later some Macallan 15. Our friend took us out to let us know he wanted us all to be groomsmen at his wedding this March. So it was a good time. The rally in GBP/JPY has been interesting, but looking at the overall picture... I'm not convinced. I'm currently flat, but considering a short position. Here's a look at the daily: {image} Basically, the daily trend channel was obviously broken, and this...
I agree 100% with your post, however I think that the market has a bullish bias for (GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY) at this point and it is obvious.

But, like you said tomorrow will give us a clearer picture.

I am lucky to currently be in both AUD/USD and GBP/USD shorts that are in profit at the moment so if we get good numbers tomorrow it will only give those positions more momentum and if not I can always exit those positions right away and then possibly re-enter at better prices.
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  • #8,293
  • Edited 10:49pm Aug 1, 2013 9:47pm | Edited 10:49pm
Quoting Geppy
I can ban schmucks... just sayin'
Haha, thanks Geppy! That gave me a good laugh. I think I'll be nice though and give him the benefit of the doubt. I still would like to hear some fruitful analysis from him though, as that is the only way he could possibly redeem himself in my eyes. An apology wouldn't be so bad either, but I know enough to know not to expect that.

My bet is that Chubbly is not a profitable trader like he says and if he were, I would be the first one here to congratulate him and give him credit for that... because I know just how hard it can be. But as of now, I have my doubts. All of us here know that successful trading is NOT an easy skill to learn (especially on GJ), and I do not look to hide the fact that I have made more than my fair share of mistakes, because that is what forces you to learn and, even more importantly, change.

Let me just be clear while I have a minute: if you think this is about disagreement, it is not. I'm all for people disagreeing with me... or anyone for that matter... I think disagreements can actually be very healthy. But there are ways of expressing things that do not have to be so violent, immature, and hostile, and personal attacks should always be checked at the front door. There is no room or place for it here, and that is why I hope to never have to confront this issue again.

Ok, moving on...
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Hey, have a looky at a 12H chart.....g/j....big time....MT-4 has the ability to change charts to any time frame you could want.... ... there is a huge frikkin tweezers bottom...the size of New York City
I was always pretty sure MT4 only has the 9 time frames that are built-in. I've looked at ALL of the settings and have never seen a 12H chart. Could you please explain how to do this because it would be a very powerful feature if it is true. And, are you sure you're not confusing MT4 with MT5?
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,294
  • Edited 11:21pm Aug 1, 2013 11:10pm | Edited 11:21pm
Quoting Mpt
So, GJ sits exactly on its lower channel rising TL, having risen to retest it. There may be new resistance about 20 pips higher. GU appears to be resuming its downtrend. UJ has been looking bullish, but sits now at its daily gann and (I think) has new resistance about 15 pips above it. UJ is somewhat in the same situation as GJ was about a week ago today. When UJ support at the 98 level broke by about 20 pips a couple of days ago, I suspect that it signalled the support line was no longer valid (or needed??) All up, I still think we're heading down...
I understand your points Mpt, but I'm with Fx3422271 on this one. I personally feel like the correction is now over with (I am referring to GJ specifically, but it probably would relate to all yen pairs too), and I feel like the sharp move up from 148.25 and also the double bottom that was created right after Bernanke spoke (you can see it on shorter TF's) was the giveaway. I am long now (and in profit... what, Chubbly? Did I hear something? ) from about 150.40 (semi-resistance and break of TL) and although I could have easily gotten a better entry by 20 pips, it's hard to complain when ur in the green it feels nice for a change! and next week should be even better!

I just wanted to respond to this post because after looking at the Daily chart (below) from yesterday, I find it kinda hard to think that we would retrace even just half of that move. I now think 147 is out of the question... and I think there's even a chance 150.00 may be too!

Attached Image
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  • #8,295
  • Aug 1, 2013 11:19pm Aug 1, 2013 11:19pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I understand your points Mpt, but I'm with Fx3422271 on this one. I personally feel like the correction is now over with (I am referring to GJ specifically, but it probably would relate to all yen pairs too), and I feel like the sharp move up from 148.25 and also the double bottom that was created right after Bernanke spoke (you can see it on shorter TF's) was the giveaway. I am long now (and in profit... what, Chubbly? Did I hear something? ) from about 150.40 (semi-resistance and break of TL) and although I could have easily gotten a...
You all may well be right. But, right here there exists the very real possibility of the renewal of the downtrend in a much larger correction to 142 or below. In fact, at this point, as outrageous as it may seem, there is the possibility of the start of a complete and total reversal.

Above about 151 and it goes north. Below about 150 and it tracks south.
  • #8,296
  • Aug 1, 2013 11:21pm Aug 1, 2013 11:21pm
Hey dudes

I've been sitting on the sidelines with this pair since I take profit on my longs yesterday at 150.4.

Not much happening yet but IMO I think this pair will break 150.87 and then would like a slight retrace and I would be looking to long again and hold to 152.6.

Not willing to short this pair unless we take out the current bottom.
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,297
  • Aug 2, 2013 12:23am Aug 2, 2013 12:23am
a lot of bad discipline resulted in me being down 300 odd pips (i was long)
decided to cleanse my soul and close them
was it the right move?
probably not given the recent movement
but it was a bad trade so i had to cut it at some stage rather than wish and wait.
  • #8,298
  • Aug 2, 2013 2:01am Aug 2, 2013 2:01am
Should have held on til after the news !
  • #8,299
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:23am Aug 2, 2013 4:23am
Hey smash...search mt-4 time frame and get the file for changing the time....it's real common...
..

nfp may send the stock market up to a new high again, that would bury the usd deeply. send the gbp/usd up....maybe draging the gbp/jpy with it, while the usd/jpy hits it's cycle low. I'm all short term...usd/jpy just hit it's elliott target of 99.80~~~down hill from there with a stop close. 12 hour tweezers are so big, they swamp the candles they're attached to. then the massive up candles from there say yes.
... oanda has a 12 H.....
  • #8,300
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:45am Aug 2, 2013 4:45am
Hi everyone. I am new here. i have a LONG GBP/JPY. i think currently it's consolidating under the 151.25 resistance before he will break above it. anyone agrees?
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