AUD/USD

Australia expects 2013-2014 deficit of A$30.1Billion versus May estimate of A$18Billion - Bloomberg

i dont see bull anytime soon...

This is not typical price action for a reversal, or even a strong retracement anytime soon (IMO). If you've got deep pockets you best hedge you way out of your longs losses until hit hits terrafirma. At least you will reduce your overall loss if you've hung on for too long already. Getting out of doodoo like this is a part of the skill set required for Forex trading. It's a steep learning curve.

=)) it will be boolish today, market makers want you think it is still bearish

Really trying hard to convince yourself. May you should try USDCHF lol

Is that your analysis, or hope talking?

Short at 0.891 tp at 0.885

just simple nad obvious things, good bye

The bear was amazing, isn't it!

Exactly. Just as obvious as Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, twice on Thursday. Maybe Friday is the meal ticket.

Gold looking poised for another leg down? Strong NFP manana and we might see 0.87 by close on friday

Think you're right! 4H got major MA crosses to the downside. 1269 than lower IMO. 1269 is confirmed, or at least possible on 4H and daily

It's looking to me like only the news later can really drag this pair down much further.

Time for the bull to wake up

Justed wanted to pop into the thread and share my thoughts.

I trade purely technical, but I always enjoy seeing fundamentals play out what the technicals already show.

AUD/USD has been obeying a descending trendline like clock work. This trendline is fuel for the fire for nearly every drop. In general if you've been playing with this pair the last week or so, you may have noticed that this week in particular the pair was looking for almost any reason to go down. We all know the market prices things in, which is why I only trade technicals, even 'surprise' news isn't really surprising from where I sit, it all makes sense. That being said....this is what I picked up on and why I think most traders should be careful as we approach Friday's USD News Releases.

.9 Acted as a support, until it was broken and then it was made resistance.

.89 Served as a strong support after .9 and for more than a day the market tried to move lower, every attempt it made failed. It maintained the downtrend, but failed to really see new ground.

Then came the AUD PPI announcement earlier this evening, and although it did 'break' .89....theres no debating that the level isn't truly out of the picture. Nor is there any debating that the market is still well within its means to be Bearish or Down trending.

The Primary trendline moving down is currently resting at ~.8915. However a Secondary Trendline emerged from the .93 drop and is currently resting ~.8944. If we manage to move past .8915, expect easy selling opportunities near .8950 for quick scalping opportunities. If a trendline is drawn connecting the recent lows of the last couple days, something interesting is clearly beginning to form, and its a Descending Wedge. If you're unfamiliar with the pattern, its 'usually' an excellent reversal trade, however in rare circumstances they can serve for explosive breakouts.

What am I saying in this long winded post and what does it all mean?

1. I think Bearish traders need to alert with caution and be ready for a potential move to .91 should the Wedge play out like they typically do.
2. Currently for Scalp Traders there are excellent selling opportunities from ~.8915 and ~.8950
3. Price action around .89 felt very restricted this evening, like it wanted to go down, but something was keeping it up. USD News is coming out in several hours, its possible that AUD/USD will more/less range or stay within the wedges' confines until that statement is released.
4. There are more and more technical indicators lining up via support/resistance that are suggesting at least a temporary move up for the Aud/Usd pair.

If you insist on buying the Aud/Usd right now you're going to have to be very careful, descending wedges create lower lows while ultimately and 'usually' produce the temporary reversal. Nothing is confirmed yet for you Bulls, but theres some stew possibly brewing.

Trade Safe.

that's fine, i already calculate margin of safety. i'm happier if i go down further more

Moving down great now. I don't normally trade breakouts but this one was pretty easy as long term downtrend is intact. I expect to get a bounce in the 8660 area so I will close out shorts around 8688 and try to reload at higher price on a bounce. But I will not hold out. If we don't get my expected bounce, I will just continue to add from 8640'ish area all the way down to my target price of 8077.

Entry price was 9090, moved stops to 9060 so trade is now safe. NFP can't take my profits, yessaa!

Thanks nice pickup syntrader

And 25-08-2010 bounce of from 200ma in day time frame. like double bottom


cheers

Nice. Can you post a chart?

Sorry was being lazy, but you demanded it

let see how the market rection in few minute!!!