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Higher low, lower high system

  • #6,521
  • Edited 8:02am Aug 1, 2013 7:58am | Edited 8:02am
Hi Dave,

Is it Déjà vu for EA. A 15 minute 2B, 3 Bar reversal.

I took it for 1/2 R. Not confident due to large retrace.

Regards

edit: Indeed it is, took some off just before 1.48. These EA reversals can be powerful.
  • #6,522
  • Aug 1, 2013 8:58am Aug 1, 2013 8:58am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Missed out badly, first 200 pips or so did come on Aussie interest rate news so not a lot could be done there. Also missed out on the US session 1hr hl yesterday. There was also a nice 2b 3 bar reversal yesterday also, 15 min. {image}
Hi Vantage, would you be so kind to post the EURAUD template? Thanks. ayour2a
  • #6,523
  • Aug 1, 2013 11:28pm Aug 1, 2013 11:28pm
Quoting ayour2a
{quote} Hi Vantage, would you be so kind to post the EURAUD template? Thanks. ayour2a
It will be the same as eur on 1st post with switch of RSI for W's%R. There you go.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 20 50 ma's w%r.tpl   1.1 MB | 492 downloads
  • #6,524
  • Aug 1, 2013 11:43pm Aug 1, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting mt2
Hi Dave, Is it Déjà vu for EA. A 15 minute 2B, 3 Bar reversal. I took it for 1/2 R. Not confident due to large retrace. Regards edit: Indeed it is, took some off just before 1.48. These EA reversals can be powerful.
Yes I never looked at EUEAUD before, thanks pgdave I think it was for pointing that one out. When she trends she trends really well.

My gu trade ended at BE, yes I managed that one about as poorly as is possible. Perhaps being too critical, left stop and only put to BE after the first challenge on news. So the second spike hit it. Still had a decently positive month but no major fireworks. I expect to be back to exiting at 2nd critical level after entry (likely S/R and W pivot combos) as a rule but we'll still try the odd swing trade. Mrs V was out of action yesterday and I expect today also. I have month ends to get out of the way at the office but definitely have now time to look for trades as you may have noticed this last week or so. With NFP that might be a no trade day for us. With our aversion to trading Fri mornings and unless something is really jumping out Monday mornings also.
  • #6,525
  • Aug 2, 2013 12:05am Aug 2, 2013 12:05am
2 Aug 2013
Click on date for D charts.

General comments: NFP today so there is always the chance of an early move and then erratic/sideways price action.


EUR - The move above 1.3300 that was immediately rejected on 31 July did result in a negative close 3 bar reversal day as discussed yesterday. RSI crossed lower and below 8lwma. There is potential for Apr/May body highs/11 July high/W M2 1.3205 to act as support. 4hr has made a low, 1hr on a lower high. Bias down, potential to bounce on support.

GU - D closed negative after a big spike up on news. 4hr is showing positive divergence, almost no reaction high in Asian session so they to not seem to be betting against down side continuing. Bias down, next target the resistance area 1.5000/5040 the Apr/May lows.

EJ - D closed positive in line with D bias and the 4hr higher low morning star close. Bias up.

EURAUD - D closed a doji. 4hr still on a higher low with an upper range at 1.4850, whilst this may hold/start fall am viewing as a pause in uptrend. Bias up.

AUD - D negative close, 4hr lower high lower low. Bias down.
  • #6,526
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:34am Aug 3, 2013 9:34am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} It will be the same as eur on 1st post with switch of RSI for W's%R. There you go. {file}
Thank you
  • #6,527
  • Aug 3, 2013 9:04pm Aug 3, 2013 9:04pm
Quoting Vantage
HUnter 123 forgot to mention the small losing trades that obviously do happen are heavily outweighed by the good entries that this system gives for the long runs that these currencies have most of the time. Cheers.






To:-Dear Vantage, Sorry to pardon you, regarding the AU H1 CHART, may I know the EMAs , yellow (5), Red ( ), Pink ( ) & RSI 2 or 8 , not clear from the lop-top, even if I enlarge it. As for Chart H1, what is the yellow EMA? and the indicator used, is it STO 833, or RSI 2, pls clarify, thanks...Happy & Success trade to you..Bye
  • #6,528
  • Aug 4, 2013 2:46am Aug 4, 2013 2:46am
Quoting francis3388
{quote} To:-Dear Vantage, Sorry to pardon you, regarding the AU H1 CHART, may I know the EMAs , yellow (5), Red ( ), Pink ( ) & RSI 2 or 8 , not clear from the lop-top, even if I enlarge it. As for Chart H1, what is the yellow EMA? and the indicator used, is it STO 833, or RSI 2, pls clarify, thanks...Happy & Success trade to you..Bye
I'll be quite honest I play around with the ema's a lot because they are not that important in the grand scheme of things.

I currently use a gold 8lwma on close on all time frames. Trading above/below that is a good easy visual rule of thumb. Also if a seemingly good candle cannot break the other side of a tight ma like 8lwma it needs to be treated with caution and a decision made. So if a move cannot break the 8lwma I'd have more faith with a candle thats reverting to trend than a candle that is counter trend. Like I said both would be treated with caution.

In addition to the 8lwma 15 min has a 200 ema, 1hr 50 ema, 4hr 21 ema. D currently 20 + 50 ema as I am looking at a thread from 100pipsaday in terms of his trend definition.

Bottom line I can no longer remember the longer ema from post 1's aud chart.

The RSI is an 8 with 8 sma, see the 1hr template on 1st post.
  • #6,529
  • Aug 4, 2013 11:52pm Aug 4, 2013 11:52pm
5 Aug 2013
As expected most pairs did very little until NFP numbers came out of Friday. There were some big reactions then, as usual we'll need to see if these moves follow through or re-race back to their starting points.

Click on date for 1hr charts.

EUR - D closed positive RSI above 50 level but could not cross its signal line. The 1.3300 resistance level held. 4hr evening star pattern. 1hr showing that Asian session could not even move 30 pips up to challenge the tops of Fri's range. Conflicting information , we can go either way no bias.

GU - D closed stronger than EUR, higher than the previous 2 closes. The 4hr lower high lower low now broken. 4hr also on an evening star pattern. The D close suggests up but there is always the chance Fri's move higher was a news reaction and not a change in trend. No bias.

EJ - D closed a doji, could not cross RSI lower or below the 8lwma. 4hr RSI crossed lower and now appears to be heading towards a lower high negative close. 1hr showing divergence at the 1.3200 highs and possible support at 1.3100. No bias.

EURAUD - D closed positive, 4hr higher high higher low in tact. Bias up.

AUD - D closed a large body doji, 4hr still on lower high lower low, positive divergence now showing. Bias down.
  • #6,530
  • Aug 5, 2013 3:47am Aug 5, 2013 3:47am
GU long. 40 pips+.
As dave stated, It could be either sell or buy day. As the price broke friday's high and H1 showing bullish momentum I got into long position.

Let me know if the entry was right or should I keep anything in mind before executing these type of trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm15.png Size: 41 KB
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,531
  • Aug 5, 2013 6:45am Aug 5, 2013 6:45am
Quoting money89
GU long. 40 pips+. As dave stated, It could be either sell or buy day. As the price broke friday's high and H1 showing bullish momentum I got into long position. Let me know if the entry was right or should I keep anything in mind before executing these type of trades. {image}

I think you did really well there great trade.

D was engulfing positive close. The 4hr evening star didn't really play out as the red hammer was followed by an inside candle that could not cross below its 8lwma or cause RSI cross. The GU 4hr negative closes every bit as weak as the EURAUD D closes we commented on here http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/07/29-july-2013.html i.e. different pair different TF but same kind of weak pattern.

When the 1hr went closed positive (3 bar reversal that broke above its immediate range around London open) it certainly cleared up any doubts. Like I said nice one.

Things to watch out for, if you didn't have such a strong D set up candle and this was counter trend. If you look at GU D chart just from middle June until now, you'll see many examples of weak D closes that could not cause RSI to cross or price to cross 8lwma. They pretty much all failed to follow through, 20 and 24 June are just 2 of many examples. Any reversal candle that cannot cross the 8lwma must be treated with some care.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 40 KB
  • #6,532
  • Aug 5, 2013 6:50am Aug 5, 2013 6:50am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} I think you did really well there great trade. D was engulfing positive close. The 4hr evening star didn't really play out as the red hammer was followed by an inside candle that could not cross below its 8lwma or cause RSI cross. The GU 4hr negative closes every bit as weak as the EURAUD D closes we commented on here http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/07/29-july-2013.html i.e. different pair different TF but same kind of weak pattern. When the 1hr went closed positive (3 bar reversal that broke above its immediate...
Whilst I'm on GU daily. You'll see again how many turns take 3-7 days to play out. Of course Fri was an exception as it was news - NFP - that caused the turn. That can happen but news shocks apart the above chart shows again that 1 candle on 1 TF no matter how good it seems must be treated with care. So if you have 1 candle that cannot cause a cross of 8lwma, RSI or 3 bar reversal you have to have at least some pause to think its just a CT rally.

NB HL/LH's, dble tops/bottoms, 3 bar reversals are by their definition not 1 candle patterns.
  • #6,533
  • Aug 5, 2013 6:57am Aug 5, 2013 6:57am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} The 4hr evening star didn't really play out as the red hammer was followed by an inside candle that could not cross below its 8lwma or cause RSI cross. The GU 4hr negative closes every bit as weak as the EURAUD D closes we commented on here http://vantagefx.blogspot.com/2013/07/29-july-2013.html i.e. different pair different TF but same kind of weak pattern. Any reversal candle that cannot cross the 8lwma must be treated with some care. {image}
See the x where the weak 4hr closes could not cross 8lwma/cause RSI cross.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.png Size: 43 KB
  • #6,534
  • Aug 5, 2013 11:41pm Aug 5, 2013 11:41pm
6 Aug 2013
Click on date for 4hr charts.

EUR - D closed negative with a small range. The 1 attempt above 1.3300 last week was quickly rejected. The 4hr chart shows the sideways mess. Whilst I suspect down chances are won't be watching this pair too closely, no bias.

GU - D closed positive but no follow through in the US session and Asian session. After such a strong move up that is an immediate warning sign. The D close should be bias up with at least some space to the 1.5400 resistance area and the next W pivot W R1 1.5435. Should the open 4hr candle close negative it looks like we will have a double top, sell divergence and RSI cross lower. Bias down.

EJ - D closed negative, Asian session has almost had a decent move up rejecting the move below 1.3000. 4hr is still on a lower high lower low, bias down.

EURAUD - D closed a shooting star rejecting an identified resistance level 1.4900, after the strong close on 31 July we have struggled to go higher. 4hr negative divergence and we have had 1hr lower highs following divergence yesterday. RBA interest rate news just out it looks like we are going lower.

AUD - D closed a hammer rejecting the move below 0.8900. 4hr positive divergence and we have had 1hr higher lows following this. It looks like the RBA news is trying to continue the push up.
  • #6,535
  • Aug 6, 2013 6:42am Aug 6, 2013 6:42am
Seems like no much setups today.
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,536
  • Aug 6, 2013 7:00am Aug 6, 2013 7:00am
Quoting money89
Seems like no much setups today.
GU looks like its flipping over. We'll see.
  • #6,537
  • Aug 6, 2013 11:49am Aug 6, 2013 11:49am
choppy market all day..
My Mantra - Go with the flow until a key level is hit
  • #6,538
  • Aug 6, 2013 11:46pm Aug 6, 2013 11:46pm
Quoting money89
choppy market all day..

It happens.
  • #6,539
  • Aug 6, 2013 11:47pm Aug 6, 2013 11:47pm
7 Aug 2013
Click on date for D charts.

EUR - D closed positive, 4hr several upper wicks rejecting the move above 1.3300 again. The bounces lower from this key area are getting smaller suggesting it may fail and we move up. If I was to buy and take that chance I'd be looking for space between entry and the highs and to get stop to break even quickly. No way of knowing, no bias.

GU - D closed a small range shooting star rejecting the identified resistance level, no RSI cross lower, no cross below 8lwma. 4hr showing negative divergence and the struggle at this level for 2 days, RSI has crossed lower for a scalp sell. We have had 1hr lower highs late in US session/early Asian session following the 4hr divergence. Can go either way, no bias.

EJ - D closed negative, 4hr on lower high lower low. A strong move down already during Asian session. Bias down.

EURAUD - D closed a hammer, 4hr reverted to higher low. Bias up.

AUD - D closed positive, RSI crossed up but below 50 level. 4hr stalled below W pivot 0.9019, RSI crossed lower. Might be shaping up that the 2 day move up is a counter trend rally. A 1hr lower high would suggest a sell and bias down.
  • #6,540
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:30am Aug 7, 2013 3:30am
I am in a CAD buy from yesterday after the engulfing 1hr close. We are testing the 29 May highs 1.0420 area. Just over 50 pips up at the moment we'll see how it works out.
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