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Technical Analysis Fallacy

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  • Post #41,801
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  • Aug 1, 2013 3:54am Aug 1, 2013 3:54am
  •  khanderoo
  • | Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Bored Trader | 201 Posts
Hello FTI,
Thanks for your wonderful thread, dedication and sharing decades of knowledge on how to trade properly with us. its a piece of art for day traders.

I've been a member of FF for some time now but only recently I have found out about this thread!! I must admit some of what is said here I knew before BUT when reading it, its like making all pieces together. Its like you are in a dark place and there are some lights here and there BUT sudenly someone turn all the lights on. Now you could see the beast; Market and yourself!!!! I believe this could ONLY be achieved from longtime experience. Some thing that you have shared with us.

I would like to once again share one of your posts with everyone:

Regards,

Quoting fti
Disliked
Hi alexfot, In trading, it is quite impossible to KNOW if a trader is trading a market that runs. As professionals we have to be trading it all the time when we come on board. For traders too, many must be able to trade the markets whenever they come on board, otherwise the productivity is lost to opportunity cost.

So in essence , whenever a trader comes to battle station, he should trade. But sometimes his form is bad and his timing is bad. It is these times that the trader should be wary that is he should over stay a bad entry. During the initial stages of his entry, he would be able to begin to graps the flow of the market. That is why a quick snap shot of the daily chart is necessary for him to determine the undertone of the market. It is from this analysis that he must determine the relationship of the 3 kingdoms and the general volatility , ie the gradient of the footprints of the market would highlight , what the MM should be required.

If volatility was high then the MM should not be aggressive and the tolerance of reverse swing to his position should be re-active. Under low vol conditions his MM must be strong and non riding. His stay would be protracted. AND it would require him to spend much time to carve out his profits. If time was a factor against him for whatsoever reasons, then the trader should not attempt to begin anything that he may not be able to finish. Generally the text from Sun Zi highlights that protracted battles uses lots of energy, therefore should not be attempted unless the charisma was strong And afforded.

Side note: This is what killed the kerviel and leeson, etc. Overstaying bad positions. This is why I trade the short charts. because a protracted battle in 5 min charts can cause a trader to be involved in active battle for up to 24 hours. Just imagine if such was attempted on hourly or 4 hourly charts . The tenure of protracted battle could last for up to a week+. Any thing that last more than 3 days would have totally drained the alertness and nimbleness of the trader. And this can disturb the careful natured behavior of the best traders. When a trader is not proactive in his managing his positions, chances are that HOPE and numbness have stepped in to his mindset.

Mostly , traders gets killed not because of MO but on MM. Which is clearly the case. When positions get large , its basically cos/ the trader is timed out. If trader was against trend , he can definitely feel that his exposure was already dead in the water. Then the decision of whether to rescue comes into play. If such was attempted , it would be an exercise to book damage control, overstaying the trade would only work to his disadvantage. And if the damage increased, it would be fool hardy to increase stake. If stake was increased and the situation for recovery does not surface then it is clear that he's on the wrong side of the fence. Then if rescue was attempted again, surely over staying that rescue would only show his ego at work. And if a trader continue to attempt rescue after rescue without improving book bottom line. It is clear that the trader is disillusioned.

Rule of thumb: Rescues must be strong and swiftly executed. Only profitable trades should be protracted in tenure of attempt, and even that must be limited in strength, for defensive options to be available. regards
Ignored
Manage probability while following the TREND.
Dragon EA Pips This Month: na
 
 
  • Post #41,802
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  • Aug 1, 2013 6:39am Aug 1, 2013 6:39am
  •  PulseRes
  • | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 6 Posts
Very interesting thread. I think it was George Soros who once stated that technical analysis can predict probabilities but not the actual course of events. The general market environment determines whether technical analysis will succeed or not, for example when interest rates are on a downward path and markets are rising, using all kinds of technical indicators in the trend will obviously result in a net positive outcome, but that does not necessarily mean that you made all that money due to your specific technical analysis skills!
 
 
  • Post #41,803
  • Quote
  • Edited at 12:40pm Aug 1, 2013 10:03am | Edited at 12:40pm
  •  indianguyinny24
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,993 Posts
edit read it wrong
V
 
 
  • Post #41,804
  • Quote
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:21am Aug 1, 2013 10:21am
  •  -Michael-
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 494 Posts
Quoting PulseRes
Disliked
Very interesting thread. I think it was George Soros who once stated that technical analysis can predict probabilities but not the actual course of events. The general market environment determines whether technical analysis will succeed or not, for example when interest rates are on a downward path and markets are rising, using all kinds of technical indicators in the trend will obviously result in a net positive outcome, but that does not necessarily mean that you made all that money due to your specific technical analysis skills!
Ignored

Hey PulseRes
My opinion that bottom line it is not important how did you do it.
As long you are on green Territory long time means that you on a right path
and your decision process is very good together with trading skills
As FTI said you are as god as your last trade
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
 
 
  • Post #41,805
  • Quote
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:28pm Aug 1, 2013 12:28pm
  •  PulseRes
  • | Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 6 Posts
I agree 100% with fti, I don't know what indianguyinny24 comment is about, but for about 6 years I studied most probably every technical indicator out there, I wrote programs with TradeStation's EasyLanguage to put all the rules into mechanical format and what I found on back testing the data was that there are these long periods where these technical systems are actually profitable, even some for years.

For arguments sake let's say a newbie starts trading and finds that he is successfully with such a system, he starts to believe that he has found the holy grail, but that may not be the case. In 2003 when the United States went to war with Iraq I thought I had such a holy grail technical break out strategy, I was really raking it in big time until the markets gave me a rude awakening.

For the past 7 years, I focused mainly on fundamental analysis, studying the same data that the central bankers study and I have been net profitable for the past 5 years. I still use technical analysis but in the framework of my fundamental analysis.

"Technical analysis fallacy" is well said, I mean just imagine Bernanke would be doing solely technical analysis to predict the economy and the markets!
 
 
  • Post #41,806
  • Quote
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:39pm Aug 1, 2013 12:39pm
  •  indianguyinny24
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,993 Posts
edit read it wrong..... V
 
 
  • Post #41,807
  • Quote
  • Aug 1, 2013 1:14pm Aug 1, 2013 1:14pm
  •  -Michael-
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 494 Posts
Quoting PulseRes
Disliked
I agree 100% with fti, I don't know what indianguyinny24 comment is about, but for about 6 years I studied most probably every technical indicator out there, I wrote programs with TradeStation's EasyLanguage to put all the rules into mechanical format and what I found on back testing the data was that there are these long periods where these technical systems are actually profitable, even some for years. For arguments sake let's say a newbie starts trading and finds that he is successfully with such a system, he starts to believe that he has found...
Ignored

Hey PulseRes
To reinforce what you saing with FTI words Read following Links it is FTI posts about Automation in trading
Link 1
Link 2
Link 3
About The Technical analysis part FTI always talked of the compound patterns
The fallacy doesnt mean that you dont do the technical analysis is just that when you do you have to keep in mind that some formation can change into another formations and you have to be nimble and not with rigid mind
That how i understand it
Regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
 
 
  • Post #41,808
  • Quote
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:05pm Aug 1, 2013 10:05pm
  •  pipfarming
  • | Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Member with Patience | 121 Posts
Quoting tubguy
Disliked
{quote} Pipfarm, my friend...I can't even call myself a "winner" yet. Been here a long time. But, I know without doubt, this is the way it all works. You do not have to trade like master Fti, you just have to win. Take what is here and make it work for you. I know you can. Welcome to TAF. Friend. It ain't easy, but worth it.
Ignored
My friend tubguy,
Yes, I want to win.
I love this game. This might be the only place where people who are not allowed to print money have a very slim chance of grab money from the ones that are printing money.
 
 
  • Post #41,809
  • Quote
  • Aug 1, 2013 10:45pm Aug 1, 2013 10:45pm
  •  pipfarming
  • | Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Member with Patience | 121 Posts
My observation:

1. Fundamentally
people wait for news while money printers make news.

2. Technically
people guess where next bar might go while money printers have some if not total control of next bar.

So, people lose money to money printers.

I admire those who are able to slap the market bitch. And I hope I'll be able to manage myself good enough to grab one dollar or two persistently.
 
 
  • Post #41,810
  • Quote
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:07am Aug 2, 2013 3:07am
  •  phil13
  • Joined Jul 2011 | Status: an ant working the structure | 2,267 Posts
Something I read a while ago that may be of interest for others, I think it explains very well how the market works and how it should be viewed from a trading perspective.

I am not suggesting you buy the book, just read the extract here.

http://www.dacharts.com/articles/_bandwagon.htm

regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
 
 
  • Post #41,811
  • Quote
  • Aug 4, 2013 3:39pm Aug 4, 2013 3:39pm
  •  -Michael-
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 494 Posts
Hey Guys
Since so quiet in here lets remember some interesting post of FTI on market struckture
Link 1
Link 2
Link 3
Link 4
Link 5
Link 6
Link 7
Link 8
Link 9
Link 10
Good reading to everybody
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
 
 
  • Post #41,812
  • Quote
  • Edited Aug 5, 2013 3:02pm Aug 4, 2013 10:41pm | Edited Aug 5, 2013 3:02pm
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 19,876 Posts
Quoting -Michael-
Disliked
Hey Guys Since so quiet in here lets remember some interesting post of FTI on market struckture Link 1 Link 2 Link 3 Link 4 Link 5 Link...
Ignored




regards


missed for 30 years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBQ_IvJjRAs
 
 
  • Post #41,813
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2013 1:35am Aug 5, 2013 1:35am
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 19,876 Posts
A Song from my heart.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKvPLwRvTxs
 
 
  • Post #41,814
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:03pm Aug 5, 2013 4:19am | Edited at 3:03pm
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 19,876 Posts
wierd songs i like.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBpU8ri9tjw

regards
 
 
  • Post #41,815
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:04pm Aug 5, 2013 4:47am | Edited at 3:04pm
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 19,876 Posts
Quoting fti
Disliked
kick the feel or kick the bucket, kick properly. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBpU8ri9tjw regards
Ignored
rock and rooling. natural kick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3W14K9hZuA

wah sai, i got to on compressor. wah biang.
b4n.

regards
 
 
  • Post #41,816
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:22am Aug 5, 2013 5:22am
  •  fti
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: member | 19,876 Posts
Should be ok, some dizzy but can still listen this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0kU8qrrfgY

regards
 
 
  • Post #41,817
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2013 10:00am Aug 5, 2013 10:00am
  •  indianguyinny24
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,993 Posts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thwGvldGluw
 
 
  • Post #41,818
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2013 1:32pm Aug 5, 2013 1:32pm
  •  -Michael-
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Member | 494 Posts
Hello Everybody
I have a question about my posts
Are my posts with links to subjects that FTI posted
helping some one ? or it is just cluttering the thread
If it Helps i will keep on doing if not i think then i stop posting them
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
 
 
  • Post #41,819
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:13pm Aug 5, 2013 2:13pm
  •  NylgaFX
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Member | 8 Posts
Hi FTI,

I pray you feel better...Keep posting when you can. Your presence in this thread is like a light unto our feet, bringing inspiration as we trade your way. Thanks for such a wonderful thread.

Blessings and Good Fortune!!!

Regards,
 
 
  • Post #41,820
  • Quote
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:13pm Aug 5, 2013 2:13pm
  •  indianguyinny24
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,993 Posts
Quoting -Michael-
Disliked
Hello Everybody I have a question about my posts Are my posts with links to subjects that FTI posted helping some one ? or it is just cluttering the thread If it Helps i will keep on doing if not i think then i stop posting them regards Michael
Ignored

i can tell about me..for me its a great refresher....please keep posting...
V
 
 
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