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  • #61,181
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:13am Aug 1, 2013 12:13am
Quoting seaman2
I think that reflects trades by folks playing for swap income and not necessary view that aud will go up.
I'm sure many of them are long for the swap. How many? Doesn't really matter. As long as they're there. If the swap hooks them (or keeps them hooked longer), that's even better.

Quoting seaman2
When this decreases means carry traders have been scared out. if this is what is market trying to do, will take extra couple of IR cuts and bleak prospect for AU future. Say recession and housing slump will do. If this is so, downtrend will accelerate until margin calls, etc, which will be prime time to buy. If this is so, then we are looking <70. Looks reasonable, so I will be looking for shorts after today's 0.25 risk loss on long side.
Looks reasonable. Here is my view from my post yesterday: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post6854320
  • #61,182
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:14am Aug 1, 2013 12:14am
Quoting JollyBean
{quote} How's the going buddy~

I can not be more happier.Everything is going the way I want.Its taking life on its own.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #61,183
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:22am Aug 1, 2013 12:22am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I can not be more happier.Everything is going the way I want.Its taking life on its own.
Awesome~

I've always enjoyed your insights and philosophy as a trader
  • #61,184
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:36am Aug 1, 2013 12:36am
Quoting JollyBean
{quote} Awesome~ I've always enjoyed your insights and philosophy as a trader
Brother
Secret of profitable trading is small lots,multiple positions and median line
As an example pair travels 5k pips excluding 2008 crash
It is at bottom 20% then you buy and hold.Top 20% sell and sell more if price goes higher

What kills average trader is 20-50pip Stop Loss. We already know Market makers deliberately spike the price to take out those seating ducks.Question is why should you be seating duck! Instead you be the predator!The hunter not hunted.
Reduce lots and trade without SL
Does not mean you irrationally don't take loss when obviously wrong but it means giving the trade space a room to develop.
Seed needs time to mature.It could take 1 day,1week or 1hour Point is trade needs time to develop.
Obviously there is lot more but profits are in swing and longer TF and Longer Time frame needs longer time for results.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #61,185
  • Aug 1, 2013 12:39am Aug 1, 2013 12:39am
Quoting Nagy Attila
{quote} Around parity....Looks like you are a professional...AT least you are behaving like one...this is just sad...
lolz! at least think twice before making such statements! if you had said 300 pips then that will be considerable but you are just too much... 1000 pips?? Anyways no offence! Wish you all the best!

==============

Anyways looking for .901x to load some shorts if PA agrees. IMO the bottom is still not confirmed. even though .895x looks strong, .88x still in cards!

Added few orders below .89 with 30 pips difference with target .914x

simultaneously looking for EA to short!
  • #61,186
  • Edited 1:05am Aug 1, 2013 12:55am | Edited 1:05am
Continued
Averaging is taking negative paradigm among retail traders but this is simply misguided,misused concept which is often used in everyday operation by banks and hedge funds.
If you have 3 dollar to invest at 1.30 short then if price goes 1.56 most often trader will take a loss with 26pips at 3x -78dollars now with averaging
You take 3 divide 6 mini.50lots,enter at 1.30 .50 short price goes 1.56 no problem you still have 2.50 to invest hence no panic to close 1.30.Once everything invested your overall zone of coverage could be as wide as 300pips
Now your overall probability or the Edge is increased by tremendous way.You are 300pips higher then at 1.30
This works both counter trend and trend following.
80% of my trades are CT

I stole the idea from Jesse Livermore
He used to send pilot small order and if successful he would unload rest in increments
Every trader must read this book
REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #61,187
  • Aug 1, 2013 1:02am Aug 1, 2013 1:02am
In my opinion what you do, works until no leverage used.

It is fresh in my mind how gold stocks were squeezed recently. Price at 1300 but stock price same as 30 years ago. I bet no one expected that even in wildest dreams. I also seen margin call notices via broker going out, which prompted me to buy.
  • #61,188
  • Edited 1:34am Aug 1, 2013 1:22am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting Davit
Continued Averaging is taking negative paradigm among retail traders but this is simply misguided,misused concept which is often used in everyday operation by banks and hedge funds. If you have 3 dollar to invest at 1.30 short then if price goes 1.56 most often trader will take a loss with 26pips at 3x -78dollars now with averaging You take 3 divide 6 mini.50lots,enter at 1.30 .50 short price goes 1.56 no problem you still have 2.50 to invest hence no panic to close 1.30.Once everything invested your overall zone of coverage could be as wide as...
That's why I have an affinity for your trading style and philosophy Davit, because mine's similar.

In fact it wasn't until I got the hang of placing backup triggers as I'd like to call it, that I was able to make a full time living forex trading for the past 3 years.

As a caveat: As much as this strategy may sound fool-proof, a trader of this style still has to overcome 2 main obstacles (speaking from experience).

The first is a strong mindset. It's pointless, if because of greed and fear, you aren't able to stick to the plan. There may be a stronger tendency for you to open the trade BEFORE it hits your intended target (this is due to the "I don't wanna miss the boat!" syndrome). And making this mistake messes with your initial plan and causes all kinds of problems down the road.

The second obstacle is not having enough experience placing your triggers or identifying the possible area of turnaround. You may perceive the reversal as about to happen soon, when in fact it's nowhere close. Taking AUD/USD as an example, one may think it can't go down further than 0.88. But if it does, will you be prepared? Or will you be in shock and in disbelief, that you hold on to your losses in hope it will turnaround soon, until reality hits and you get a margin call. Most people aren't prepared, and will experience the latter.

Ask me how I know
  • #61,189
  • Aug 1, 2013 1:30am Aug 1, 2013 1:30am
Quoting JollyBean
{quote} That's why I have an affinity for your trading style and philosophy Davit, because mine's similar. In fact it wasn't until I got the hang of placing backup triggers as I'd like to call it, that I was able to make a full time living forex trading for the past 3 years. As a caveat: As much as this strategy may sound fool-proof, a trader of this style still has to overcome 2 main obstacles (speaking from experience). The first is a strong mindset. It's pointless, if because of greed and fear, you aren't able to stick to the plan. There may...

Great post friend
My idea of Stop loss is overall amount I am willing to invest and once that reaches I am out.
I took 2 losses on Aussie at 1007 and on Kiwi as well on both accounts I knew I was wrong.On the positive side I more them made up shorting the UC and EC
You are correct about sticking to target levels and that's why I use limit orders.If not triggered then not entering.
I have been patiently waiting for Eur/CAD to trigger at 37 and price came as high as 3680 but did not pull the trigger.
Yes mental toughness and not afraid to take a loss is the key.
UP 20.50% July.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #61,190
  • Edited 2:13am Aug 1, 2013 1:44am | Edited 2:13am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Brother Secret of profitable trading is small lots,multiple positions and median line As an example pair travels 5k pips excluding 2008 crash It is at bottom 20% then you buy and hold.Top 20% sell and sell more if price goes higher What kills average trader is 20-50pip Stop Loss. We already know Market makers deliberately spike the price to take out those seating ducks.Question is why should you be seating duck! Instead you be the predator!The hunter not hunted. Reduce lots and trade without SL Does not mean you irrationally don't take loss...
Hello Davit. I like the positivity in your approach and I do agree that basing your trade's position size on a stop loss within reach of your entry is not a good idea. However, I don't agree that the broker needs you to set a stop loss in order to benefit from your loss. In fact, there are times when setting a stop loss actually prevents the broker from seizing more of your money. When a trade goes into drawdown, the loss is reflected in the net balance. Therefore a realized loss is essentially the same thing as an unrealized loss. The only difference is that an unrealized loss has the potential to recuperate the loss in the future. However, a realized loss can't accrue more loss whereas an unrealized loss can. Hence a stop loss possibly preventing a broker from more gain at the traders expense. More on this later.

Now going back to setting a nearby stop loss...

Forex market can be very volatile - and it usually is. There is what some traders refer to as 'noise'. In other words, market fluctuations that appear random. Maybe it is not totally random, but it might as well be since consistently predicting price movement within a 100 pip range is nearly impossible. So like you said, why be a sitting duck? Why put yourself in the line of sight of a double barrel shotgun? The solution to this, as you also mentioned Davit, is to lower your position size and set targets further away from your entry. This way you avoid much of the noise and possibly avoid most stop hunts. By using lower position sizes you can also go without a hard stop loss. You can have a mental stop loss which you will execute when price gets inside your loss range. I also call it the "no more pain" range. Another benefit of setting wider targets is that you lower the negative effect of spread. For example, if you have a spread of 2 pips and a stop loss 50 pips from your entry, then your spread accounts for 4% of your loss (2/50 = 4%). Now if you have a 500 pip stop loss, a 2 pip spread is only 0.4% of your loss. That makes a big difference in the long run, believe me. The only downside to setting larger targets is having to wait longer for trades to complete. But why wouldn't you be willing to wait more time if it increases your chances of success? I would. And I do. I believe the benefits outweigh the downside.

Okay back to brokers stop hunting and taking traders money...

I once spoke with a trader who based his trades on what he believed were stop hunt spikes. His philosophy was that a broker would only hunt a stop if they were confident that price was going to move in that trade's favor (whether through exclusive information not available to the public or impending manipulation the other way). Otherwise why would the broker be so anxious to take it off the board by spiking price? So, he would make a small entry with a stop loss actually hoping it would get stopped out. If it did, he would immediately reenter with a larger position size and no stop loss. I don't know if this worked for him. I didn't ask cause I assumed it was working for him if he was doing it. And if it wasn't working for him, there was a 50/50 chance he was going to lie to me anyway so I didn't bother asking. I never tested it out for myself because by that time I liked the way that I traded. I still trade the same way today. My method suits me and my availability very well. I really don't have the time or patience to sit and wait for stop outs on little trades.

Anyway, I think we're overall pretty like-minded in our approach Davit. Best wishes.
  • #61,191
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:01am Aug 1, 2013 2:01am
Quoting seaman2
I also seen margin call notices via broker going out, which prompted me to buy.
If you are in a position to see/know when a spike in margin calls are going out, that would be some really nice information. That is having an advantage over average Joe trader.
  • #61,192
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:11am Aug 1, 2013 2:11am
Quoting JollyBean
It's pointless, if because of greed and fear, you aren't able to stick to the plan.
This is one of the best lines I have ever read on this website.

Quoting JollyBean
The second obstacle is not having enough experience
Experience is the most important thing to succeed long term. We've all heard the old saying that 95% (or whatever the hell it is) of forex traders fail. Biggest reason for this is 95% of traders have traded less than 10 years. I'm willing to bet it would be much less than 95% if most traders had 10+ years of experience.
  • #61,193
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:19am Aug 1, 2013 2:19am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} This is one of the best lines I have ever read on this website. {quote} Experience is the most important thing to succeed long term. We've all heard the old saying that 95% (or whatever the hell it is) of forex traders fail. Biggest reason for this is 95% of traders have traded less than 10 years. I'm willing to bet it would be much less than 95% if most traders had 10+ years of experience.

I think the problem is most traders are too traumatized to even think of returning after blowing their account once or twice.

Crazy people like us however, march on till we see the light

That's probably why there's the saying... trading is not for everyone lol.
  • #61,194
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:21am Aug 1, 2013 2:21am
im not suprise if AU going to 888xx rasionality. before we jump to the moon (not fly)
  • #61,195
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:23am Aug 1, 2013 2:23am
Quoting JollyBean
{quote} I think the problem is most traders are too traumatized to even think of returning after blowing their account once or twice. Crazy people like us however, march on till we see the light That's probably why there's the saying... trading is not for everyone lol.
blowing account = bankrupt..
no 2nd chance mate...
  • #61,196
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:25am Aug 1, 2013 2:25am
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} blowing account = bankrupt.. no 2nd chance mate...
No problem. Borrow from others and end up in debt (and of course, in trouble)...
  • #61,197
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:25am Aug 1, 2013 2:25am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} If you are in a position to see/know when a spike in margin calls are going out, that would be some really nice information. That is having an advantage over average Joe trader.
that is my system all about. that is why system name is 'falling knife catcher'

old saying in property speculation 'one mans misery is another man profit'

always use stops.
  • #61,198
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:26am Aug 1, 2013 2:26am
Quoting JollyBean
{quote} No problem. Borrow from others and end up in debt.
dead* you mean?
  • #61,199
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:27am Aug 1, 2013 2:27am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Hello Davit. I like the positivity in your approach and I do agree that basing your trade's position size on a stop loss within reach of your entry is not a good idea. However, I don't agree that the broker needs you to set a stop loss in order to benefit from your loss. In fact, there are times when setting a stop loss actually prevents the broker from seizing more of your money. When a trade goes into drawdown, the loss is reflected in the net balance. Therefore a realized loss is essentially the same thing as an unrealized loss. The only...
Nice post friend.I agree we think a like.
Just an example I was -400pips at 8pm now I am less then -100pips and my upper shorts already showing great profits.
With conventional trading I would of taken 6x 50pip Stop Losses costing -300pips.
I am in firm believe that when deciding what to trade should have solid reasons.I don't just chase shorts. I put great thought into what pair what levels to trade.It has worked well so far and only getting better.

I like to talk little about Fundamental and technical aspect of trading.
Fundamentals drives the engine and technicals leave tire marks.Tire can't go anywhere without the engine.It baffles me how something this obvious its not clear by many.(Watching lagging indicators showing past price action is useless in my opinion)
Having said this I approach trading like a funnel
1.Fundemetals
2.Trend
3.Right timing (Jesse Livermore would wait 2-5weeks for the right opportunity and unload on it.He basically invented pivots by reading the tape for weeks)
http://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/ct...nnel-chart.jpg
I read many great traders lives and one thing they all have in common is they spent minimum 2hours going over all news relating to trading every day.
Its getting the feel where the market is going and understanding the sentiment.
That is why when someone just scalps without clue this trader will not last long.One needs to know the environment.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #61,200
  • Aug 1, 2013 2:31am Aug 1, 2013 2:31am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Nice post friend.I agree we think a like. Just an example I was -400pips at 8pm now I am less then -100pips and my upper shorts already showing great profits. With conventional trading I would of taken 6x 50pip Stop Losses costing -300pips. I am in firm believe that when deciding what to trade should have solid reasons.I don't just chase shorts. I put great thought into what pair what levels to trade.It has worked well so far and only getting better. I like to talk little about Fundamental and technical aspect of trading. Fundamentals drives...
Well said.

I like the funnel diagram too. Best wishes.
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