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AUD/USD

  • #61,141
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:25pm Jul 31, 2013 6:25pm
The AUD still has plenty of room to drop away to the 85 mark area, the news here has not been good and I would expect housing sales to reflect again today.
The RBA could drop interest rates as early as next week also.
The big IF usd data shows strength this will certainly push the AUD below 89 in search of a bottom.

Chart wise or tech side as some prefer to say is easy, look at a clean chart and ask a 2 year kid which way it is going up or down, it is as easy as that.(would be surprised if any say up and if so make them stand on their head.)

Would not be looking for longs until some real underlying strength starts to form again which could be some time away.
  • #61,142
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:39pm Jul 31, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting DannyW
The AUD still has plenty of room to drop away to the 85 mark area, the news here has not been good and I would expect housing sales to reflect again today. The RBA could drop interest rates as early as next week also. The big IF usd data shows strength this will certainly push the AUD below 89 in search of a bottom. Chart wise or tech side as some prefer to say is easy, look at a clean chart and ask a 2 year kid which way it is going up or down, it is as easy as that.(would be surprised if any say up and if so make them stand on their head.) Would...

FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #61,143
  • Jul 31, 2013 6:58pm Jul 31, 2013 6:58pm
Quoting DannyW
The AUD still has plenty of room to drop away to the 85 mark area, the news here has not been good and I would expect housing sales to reflect again today. The RBA could drop interest rates as early as next week also. The big IF usd data shows strength this will certainly push the AUD below 89 in search of a bottom. Chart wise or tech side as some prefer to say is easy, look at a clean chart and ask a 2 year kid which way it is going up or down, it is as easy as that.(would be surprised if any say up and if so make them stand on their head.) Would...
Even if the RBA cuts rates by 1.0% it does not justify such a massive fall in the Aussie. The fact is that based on arbitrage sum the impact would have been priced in by the first 50 pips of the fall. What we are seeing is the point where is hot money leaves for a better return, having made good money on the way up and loss of capital due to pessimism and rising cost (with expectations of further increases) of doing business in Australia.

Fundamentally there needs to be a shift in confidence and the political goings on at the moment are only muddying the waters. There seemed to be some hope on the horizon a month ago but now there is a real possibility of another minority Govt. and this is spooking business.
  • #61,144
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:02pm Jul 31, 2013 7:02pm
investing in BHP RIO may have better return IMO..
  • #61,145
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:07pm Jul 31, 2013 7:07pm
Quoting Robby
{quote} That is right. Tho we are at the top end of the range for EA 1.48-1.49 should be around the top of the move. EU is at an weekly down line were it should hold and move down. This will put pressure on EA to move south too. When AU is let go then you will get a even bigger push down on EA. My opinion on EUR/AUD

It is true and wlso why i favour trading EA right now over AD.

Fundamentally there is dollar strength on the horizon but i am a big bear on the Euro so iam more comfortable shorting the Euro and i find the best currency to short it with is the Aussie which i think has overshot a little against the euro.

Started shorting in the 1.46's and have added every 40 or so pips and will do as high as it goes.

I agree i think we are near the top. Might even have already peaked if Mario talks down the Euro tomorrow (which i expect).

Holding for a break to 1.41
Money never sleeps...
  • #61,146
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:10pm Jul 31, 2013 7:10pm
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Even if the RBA cuts rates by 1.0% it does not justify such a massive fall in the Aussie. The fact is that based on arbitrage sum the impact would have been priced in by the first 50 pips of the fall. What we are seeing is the point where is hot money leaves for a better return, having made good money on the way up and loss of capital due to pessimism and rising cost (with expectations of further increases) of doing business in Australia. Fundamentally there needs to be a shift in confidence and the political goings on at the moment are...
Wasn't basing the drop on just about RBA possible rate cut was just adding another piece to the puzzle, I had mentioned a few other factors in a earlier post and you are right on with the clowns trying to run the country here on both sides.

The point I was making is that not much good news is around the aud and IF the usd producers some good data it will be the cause for more fall.

I think you have over quoted the figure 1% as you would see a 100 plus pip move as everyone is expecting a .25 cut
  • #61,147
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:20pm Jul 31, 2013 7:20pm
No change in the USD bond buying program so I believe without any good news from China and or the land down under the AUD/USD will continue to fall.

But if we get any good news from China and the land down under I believe this pair will move up a couple hundred pips being the the USD has been artificially high do to the rumors of tapering bond purchases, and with that fading now I think the USD is in for a clobbering!!!
  • #61,148
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:38pm Jul 31, 2013 7:38pm
Quoting irongoose
.. I think the usd is in for a clobbering!!!
like kobyashi hungununununun!
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #61,149
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:43pm Jul 31, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} like kobyashi hungununununun!
No like this!
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  • #61,150
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:43pm Jul 31, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting DannyW
{quote} Wasn't basing the drop on just about RBA possible rate cut was just adding another piece to the puzzle, I had mentioned a few other factors in a earlier post and you are right on with the clowns trying to run the country here on both sides. The point I was making is that not much good news is around the aud and IF the usd producers some good data it will be the cause for more fall. I think you have over quoted the figure 1% as you would see a 100 plus pip move as everyone is expecting a .25 cut
I agree. We have clowns to the right and jokers to the left, all looking for political solutions but not too much consideration for business or workers and lack of emphasis on productivity which will get the country out of the mess. Comments this morning by commentators suggest there is an argument that i/rates could be below 2% by end of year and IMHO this would not do anything to stem the flow out of AUD.
  • #61,151
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:51pm Jul 31, 2013 7:51pm
Quoting irongoose
the USD has been artificially high do to the rumors of tapering bond purchases, and with that fading now I think the USD is in for a clobbering!!!
Completely agree with this viewpoint.

The Fed isn't really going to taper. They can't. Unemployment hasn't budged, manufacturing is dropping off, retail sales tanking, etc. US is still in a recession.

IF for some reason they do taper, it won't last long and they will INCREASE QE to $100+ bln a month.
  • #61,152
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:53pm Jul 31, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting Surgical
{quote} I agree. We have clowns to the right and jokers to the left, all looking for political solutions but not too much consideration for business or workers and lack of emphasis on productivity which will get the country out of the mess. Comments this morning by commentators suggest there is an argument that i/rates could be below 2% by end of year and IMHO this would not do anything to stem the flow out of AUD.

I find it very concerning as an aussie , we have some very worrying times ahead. its like we are trying to sell the country for 1 weeks worth of groceries and are not worried about next week.
I really hope things do improve as I would love to see my kids have the same opportunities as I have had.
  • #61,153
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:54pm Jul 31, 2013 7:54pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Completely agree with this viewpoint. The Fed isn't really going to taper. They can't. Unemployment hasn't budged, manufacturing is dropping off, retail sales tanking, etc. US is still in a recession. IF for some reason they do taper, it won't last long and they will INCREASE QE to $100+ bln a month.
does it mean AUD will go up???
part of me thinks no..

maybe EUR but not AUD..
  • #61,154
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:57pm Jul 31, 2013 7:57pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Completely agree with this viewpoint. The Fed isn't really going to taper. They can't. Unemployment hasn't budged, manufacturing is dropping off, retail sales tanking, etc. US is still in a recession. IF for some reason they do taper, it won't last long and they will INCREASE QE to $100+ bln a month.
This is why I feel that any good news from China and The Aussie will have a profound effect on this pair going up but if there isn't any good news it could continue drifting lower.
  • #61,155
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:59pm Jul 31, 2013 7:59pm
AUD climbing as we speak.
  • #61,156
  • Jul 31, 2013 7:59pm Jul 31, 2013 7:59pm
China PMI
50.3 vs 49.8 forecast.
  • #61,157
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:00pm Jul 31, 2013 8:00pm
Very fast drop back.. lol
  • #61,158
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:01pm Jul 31, 2013 8:01pm
New Home sales better than previous at 3%+
  • #61,159
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:02pm Jul 31, 2013 8:02pm
Monthly Chart 3 red candles.. If this month no rate cut.. Green candle close is possible..
  • #61,160
  • Jul 31, 2013 8:03pm Jul 31, 2013 8:03pm
Quoting Fxv
1600 pip drop in 4 months. Christmas is coming to those that hold long to at least December. Santa Pip is coming to town
Sounds like a bad strategy. You suggesting to hold longs, potentially underwater for four months hoping to get a return?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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