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AUD/USD

  • #61,041
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:22am Jul 31, 2013 9:22am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} Aussie is not oil export heavy. Main commodity export are mining minerals. Those are heavily depressed in price and demand.
Very true and the mining boom almost disappeared. Not good when China is shrinking. Also, you cannot forget the correlation to the yen.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,042
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:22am Jul 31, 2013 9:22am
Quoting Gokunopal
{quote} From your previous updated chart, could we see that the time for a swing is close? Since the begining of the year the pirce has been going down, we are almost at the lower side and needs to start moving up? It has gone below the 20 stoch
The lower chart shows the 8,3,3 stochastic below the 20% on the monthly, it could stay down there a long time............

Now we need to check lower tf's to see if there is a short term retracement coming..........

And all TF's tell me short for now, So watch the M1, M5, M15 and see if they can move the H1 Long, If it fails then you know it is coming down more, It looks like we are on wave 5 down right now.............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #61,043
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:23am Jul 31, 2013 9:23am
Quoting Didgeridoo
The FOMC statement is being released at a generally very quiet time. Is anyone here trading it?
I believe 2PM is when they always release it and volatility always spikes
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,044
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:30am Jul 31, 2013 9:30am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} Aussie is not oil export heavy. Main commodity export are mining minerals. Those are heavily depressed in price and demand.

AUD has been increasing M/M it's oil exports. You line up all the data you will see their is a turn in commodity that happened prior to the down turn in AUD price were this down move started. This turn is happening right now for a upswing in commodity prices and the AUD is moving down just like it did prior when commodity prices were moving down and AUD was moving up. You have exports increasing at the shipping ports every week. This is not a contraction. This is what I mean by the risk is to the upside. If you had exports decreasing, you have the central bank doing extended rate cuts cycle, you have the ECon numbers going off a cliff then AUD is a sell but that is simply not the case with the AUD at this moment in time.

Only reason why the AUD will move down to 80 or below would be the central bank will cut rates over 1+ point and that is not what the central bank said they are looking todo. This is not going to happen either, and you are not going to get a off the cliff sell off in commodity prices. So you have a floor under AUD. Central bank is trying to talk it down for as long as they can because higher AUD makes their ECon hurt and they want to get more activity in their ECon. The winds are not going with the Central Bank for lower AUD it is moving for a higher AUD in the future.

I do not see the forward news to move AUD down more. I just do not see it. This is my read on AUD.
  • #61,045
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:31am Jul 31, 2013 9:31am
waiting for Europe close! I hope you all grabbed the train. Anyways still holding my shorts on NU. She should touch below .78 again IMO.
  • #61,046
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:34am Jul 31, 2013 9:34am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} I believe 2PM is when they always release it and volatility always spikes
Hi Pip Anon,

Thanks for your response. Yeah, pretty sure you're right about 2pm being the norm.

In your opinion, is this volatility normally just noise? Or is there sufficient volume to see some trending?
  • #61,047
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:37am Jul 31, 2013 9:37am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Hi Pip Anon, Thanks for your response. Yeah, pretty sure you're right about 2pm being the norm. In your opinion, is this volatility normally just noise? Or is there sufficient volume to see some trending?
Well there is volume spike. IMO primarily HFT. Personally, I wouldn't trade it. Typically, a day or two after you will see spikes start to round off and consolidate. I'll trade that.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,048
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:45am Jul 31, 2013 9:45am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Well there is volume spike. IMO primarily HFT. Personally, I wouldn't trade it. Typically, a day or two after you will see spikes start to round off and consolidate. I'll trade that.
Yeah. I agree. Kicking myself that I missed the whole AUD/USD move. I was watching price action yesterday and (as weird as it sound) I could literally see traders positioning themselves for a move downwards. I ignored it because the market seemed to sideways.
  • #61,049
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:51am Jul 31, 2013 9:51am
Quoting Robby
{quote} AUD has been increasing M/M it's oil exports. You line up all the data you will see their is a turn in commodity that happened prior to the down turn in AUD price were this down move started.
Nice to hear a different perspective. Unfortunately, the fact that the RBA's chief is hammering his own country's currency is bad enough. No idea why he do that, perhaps political reason, I do not know.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #61,050
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:58am Jul 31, 2013 9:58am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Nice to hear a different perspective. Unfortunately, the fact that the RBA's chief is hammering his own country's currency is bad enough. No idea why he do that, perhaps political reason, I do not know.

That will go for so long then everything else kicks in and that gets void. Money is going to move and you can not ignore it because the central bank wants what is not going to happen. Can force it like the BOJ dose with the JPY but that only works for so long too. Do not look at the one tree in the forest while that tree is not burning but look at the entire forest with most of the trees on fire. Everyone see's things different. That is what makes a market. Trend following is good but trend following can cost alot of money if you can not recognize when the trend is about to turn on you.
  • #61,051
  • Jul 31, 2013 9:59am Jul 31, 2013 9:59am
Correct me if i am wrong, all i can see for short term is down down down and and the FOCM meeting is going to be the same old c**p. "continuing with our program, the economy is going according to our schedule and blah blah" but the fundamental of kangaroo economy is weak, i believe Aud/Usd 1 might not be able to get there sometime this year...

just my thought
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #61,052
  • Jul 31, 2013 10:01am Jul 31, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Yeah. I agree. Kicking myself that I missed the whole AUD/USD move. I was watching price action yesterday and (as weird as it sound) I could literally see traders positioning themselves for a move downwards. I ignored it because the market seemed to sideways.
It happens, but there is always opportunities.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,053
  • Jul 31, 2013 10:08am Jul 31, 2013 10:08am
Quoting Robby
{quote} That will go for so long then everything else kicks in and that gets void. Money is going to move and you can not ignore it because the central bank wants what is not going to happen. Can force it like the BOJ dose with the JPY but that only works for so long too. Do not look at the one tree in the forest while that tree is not burning but look at the entire forest with most of the trees on fire. Everyone see's things different. That is what makes a market. Trend following is good but trend following can cost alot of money if you can not...
No offence goodman, but is there a trend turn? I wish there is, but from the chart now, I don't see any but only bloodbath.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #61,054
  • Jul 31, 2013 10:12am Jul 31, 2013 10:12am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} No offence goodman, but is there a trend turn? I wish there is, but from the chart now, I don't see any but only bloodbath.

2 to 3 weeks from now. Go back and look at the this time. You will see it's not down from this area but right now this is the chance to take it as low as possible and they are going to use everything they can to get it as low as possible. You are looking at the lows being put in this week.
  • #61,055
  • Jul 31, 2013 10:13am Jul 31, 2013 10:13am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} No offence goodman, but is there a trend turn? I wish there is, but from the chart now, I don't see any but only bloodbath.
Speaking of bloodbath..a little tune

Inserted Video
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #61,056
  • Jul 31, 2013 10:13am Jul 31, 2013 10:13am
Quoting Robby
{quote} 2 to 3 weeks from now. Go back and look at the this time. You will see it's not down from this area but right now this is the chance to take it as low as possible and they are going to use everything they can to get it as low as possible. You are looking at the lows being put in this week.
who??
  • #61,057
  • Jul 31, 2013 10:23am Jul 31, 2013 10:23am
Quoting Robby
{quote} 2 to 3 weeks from now. Go back and look at the this time. You will see it's not down from this area but right now this is the chance to take it as low as possible and they are going to use everything they can to get it as low as possible. You are looking at the lows being put in this week.
Hope you are right mate.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #61,058
  • Jul 31, 2013 10:41am Jul 31, 2013 10:41am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Hope you are right mate.
they only wanted a drop in the AUD..0.79-77 sounds right in the next few days. It may help tourism and exports for some time. Mid August things will be back to normal. Economy is not as bad as Stevens says. Credit data were positive yesterday, housing data only showed a seasonal drop smaller than that in US, mining industry maybe in trouble until gold will pick-up...October should be the right time for gold.
  • #61,059
  • Jul 31, 2013 10:51am Jul 31, 2013 10:51am
Quoting Greener
{quote} they only wanted a drop in the AUD..0.79-77 sounds right in the next few days. It may help tourism and exports for some time. Mid August things will be back to normal. Economy is not as bad as Stevens says. Credit data were positive yesterday, housing data only showed a seasonal drop smaller than that in US, mining industry maybe in trouble until gold will pick-up...October should be the right time for gold.
I know it's not as bad as they put on. I know too many people over their in AUD. I know the central bank wants 79-77 area but that will not happen in my opinion. Too many other things that are going for AUD than going bad for the AUD to take it down to sub 80. I think you have this flush below 90 then you get the turn and everything else comes into play and everyone ignores the central bank. You get what happened when they rate cuts to move it down and the AUD moved up on the central bank. Did what they did not want it todo because everything else was going for a move up in AUD at the time. So the bank was left with scratching their head on how to move the AUD down.
  • #61,060
  • Jul 31, 2013 10:53am Jul 31, 2013 10:53am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} The lower chart shows the 8,3,3 stochastic below the 20% on the monthly, it could stay down there a long time............ Now we need to check lower tf's to see if there is a short term retracement coming.......... And all TF's tell me short for now, So watch the M1, M5, M15 and see if they can move the H1 Long, If it fails then you know it is coming down more, It looks like we are on wave 5 down right now.............
FxAlien, thanks for the reply, I will keep watching the M1, 5, 15 as you mention, have a good one
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