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AUD/USD

  • #60,981
  • Jul 30, 2013 8:22pm Jul 30, 2013 8:22pm
Quoting samirs
{quote} what made you go long here...where is your SL?
152 weeks since we last tested + closed below this current zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdweekly.png Size: 67 KB
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #60,982
  • Jul 30, 2013 8:28pm Jul 30, 2013 8:28pm
Quoting EatPIPs
Hey dudes, Been trading quite some time but new to this pair - have been watching PA last few days and my long orders have just been triggered with various TPs back to the 93 zone.
Ya got ya plan in place then trade it ..

Don't let any influences let you deviate.. many a time ive seen guys talked out of a plan only to lose money and the worse of them all is when they do the opposite of their plan ..
Stick with your convictions.. you win or lose on your terms
  • #60,983
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:13pm Jul 30, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} There are so many bulls it's like Pamplona .9035 min
So fellas, how are those longs fairing?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #60,984
  • Jul 30, 2013 9:17pm Jul 30, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting Lattepips
Based on my personal views it would be nice to long with a nice sl of 0.8970 and a tp of 0.9300 good risk reward but from fundamental point it's suggesting me to short. Can't wait for fomc later..
Stevens said inflationary data leaves room for additional rate cuts. It may be pricing it in hear for a sell the rumor buy the fact shite. Although, it is possible for another run at .93, I won't get bullish until it breaks out.

I rather wait for consolidation to short. I can see .86-.87 by fall.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #60,985
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:30pm Jul 30, 2013 10:30pm
Quoting EatPIPs
{quote} 152 weeks since we last tested + closed below this current zone. {image}
hi eatpips
you are more experienced than i am but i wanted to understand your rationale a bit more
based on my view of the chart i saw recent price action as breaking through previous upward resistance around .936 and in the last few weeks we retraced towards these levels only to be brought back down this week
does this not resemble more a downward continuation...i.e. broke resistance, retested and now continuing down (granted we are only half way through the week)

i have attached my weekly chart to make it clearer

would like to hear your views again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #60,986
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:04pm Jul 30, 2013 11:04pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Not looking good. Aussie still no willingness for .93 break. It will retest the lows. {image}
So, basically... you can never, or hardly ever, go wrong with an Aussie short. You would seriously think traders would get longs out of their vocabulary at this point.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-07-31-TOS_AUDUSD.png Size: 111 KB
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #60,987
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:29pm Jul 30, 2013 11:29pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} So, basically... you can never, or hardly ever, go wrong with an Aussie short. You would seriously think traders would get longs out of their vocabulary at this point. {image} {image}

Seems all the green pips are in favor of the short position, but long term support at .9000. Gotta wait and see if we can break that.
“The chicken is only an egg’s way for making another egg.” R. Dawkins
  • #60,988
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:39pm Jul 30, 2013 11:39pm
I went long. Staying long. Below the .9000 zone is premature at this point. Certainly ahead of the Fed's announcement tomorrow. The Fed will NOT taper. Too much risk doing it prematurely than waiting another half year to see reliable data. Especially ahead of NFP numbers Friday. The fed can taper anytime they want. They don't have to wait on press releases to announce. Even if they did, they can have ad hoc ones at any time. Like I said. I am staying long.

As for full disclosure I am managing a Demo account. It isn't real money.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #60,989
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:44pm Jul 30, 2013 11:44pm
Seems like 0.9 will be tested.... Maybe tonight after FOMC c**p
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #60,990
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:53pm Jul 30, 2013 11:53pm
Quoting bskwak1124
Seems like 0.9 will be tested.... Maybe tonight after FOMC c**p

Also, A lot of volatility coming up in the New York morning session as the non-farm payroll numbers come out. One of my favorite times in the market each month.
“The chicken is only an egg’s way for making another egg.” R. Dawkins
  • #60,991
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:58pm Jul 30, 2013 11:58pm
Quoting Jason1551
{quote} Seems all the green pips are in favor of the short position, but long term support at .9000. Gotta wait and see if we can break that.
I can give you that a break + close below, and I think it will be a bloodbath IMO. I don't believe Aussie will fine a "true" bullish sentiment until a break of .93

I wouldn't go and short it just anywhere, but if you pick your entries well they pay off.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #60,992
  • Jul 31, 2013 1:06am Jul 31, 2013 1:06am
Resistance taken out on that small thrust up.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #60,993
  • Jul 31, 2013 1:09am Jul 31, 2013 1:09am
I've been short all week closed them all out today

end of the month and the fed stuff going on. Was an easy week in au. Just keep selling key levels. I like brainless trading
  • #60,994
  • Jul 31, 2013 1:12am Jul 31, 2013 1:12am
Quoting Neqrotik
Resistance taken out on that small thrust up.
Resistance is never taken out without a close
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #60,995
  • Jul 31, 2013 1:26am Jul 31, 2013 1:26am
Quoting forexalien
Just as a heads up............... The last day of the month for trading has started, Large positions may adjust their accounts so they look better. PA might not go the direction you think it should...............Alien........
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} this should be seen. I lost an account because I didn't know this (It was also a friday, maybe this time it won't happen)
My worst day in trading was on the last day of September, 2008.
  • #60,996
  • Jul 31, 2013 1:34am Jul 31, 2013 1:34am
Retail open position ratio (at Oanda) more lopsided than yesterday. However, their average price might be so much more underwater (vs shorts average price) that it might not be as good of an indicator as yesterday.
Attached Image
  • #60,997
  • Jul 31, 2013 1:46am Jul 31, 2013 1:46am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Retail open position ratio (at Oanda) more lopsided than yesterday. However, their average price might be so much more underwater (vs shorts average price) that it might not be as good of an indicator as yesterday. {image}
(not directly to 2+2=4ex. Just commenting on what you shared with us)

There seems to be an abundance of martingale-esque traders for some reason (in regards to traders trying to average out losing positions). Always add to losses and never to wins; it's quite odd. With the FOMC today, weird price action may happen. Aussie could be due for a little bounce if, and only if, .9 is not taken out. Conversely, I believe that it will be under pressure today.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #60,998
  • Jul 31, 2013 2:19am Jul 31, 2013 2:19am
I m waiting 0.9 to break, then place a short, tp 0.885
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #60,999
  • Jul 31, 2013 3:06am Jul 31, 2013 3:06am
Quoting lasty
{quote} Ya got ya plan in place then trade it .. Don't let any influences let you deviate.. many a time ive seen guys talked out of a plan only to lose money and the worse of them all is when they do the opposite of their plan .. Stick with your convictions.. you win or lose on your terms
Thanks dude, i've been trading long enough to know what my trading plan is and not to deviate from it

No one on here would be able to influence me otherwise
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #61,000
  • Jul 31, 2013 3:18am Jul 31, 2013 3:18am
Quoting flash4
{quote} hi eatpips you are more experienced than i am but i wanted to understand your rationale a bit more based on my view of the chart i saw recent price action as breaking through previous upward resistance around .936 and in the last few weeks we retraced towards these levels only to be brought back down this week does this not resemble more a downward continuation...i.e. broke resistance, retested and now continuing down (granted we are only half way through the week) i have attached my weekly chart to make it clearer would like to hear your...
Hey dude,

Im not a fundamental trader, however much percentage that may influence the market, I don't get involved with news and only trade what I see on the charts.

Looking at the daily on this pair, yet to close higher or lower in the last 29 days within the current range. And being back at the bottom of this box on the last day of the month, having tested this area 7 times and the upper area 13 times, i'm placing my trade on the upper side. It's not an ideal trade, but like I mentioned in my post yesterday, I am new to this pair so am risking very minimal to get in on the action and see how she plays. Im more of a Yen pair man but just broadening my horizons by being curious with other pairs.

On the weekly you can also the see the open gap where this pair hasn't visited for a very long time. There is more chance of it to reverse than to continue from my experience of trading with other pairs.

Saying that, there is no guarantees in Forex and I trade what I see. This pair could also potentially blow through my SL and continue making new lows.

Just my view
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: audusdweekly.png Size: 67 KB
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
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