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Similarity: A Practical Approach

  • #381
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:14am Jul 30, 2013 10:14am
Quoting candero
Hello everyone! Nice thread, even better title - practical means it is usable, testable and NOT cryptic (I wonder why some were proud of the "cryptic" presentation of sim idea...). I've tried to approach similarity/dissimilarity from the same angle - make it clear enough to test it and prove it works (or it doesn't). How have I based things? I have neclected the fractal dimension, because I firmly believe that different timeframes are 100% self-similar as lower timeframes build higher timeframes. Data is essentially the same, so you see the same...

Great work! This is more of what we need
  • #382
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:22am Jul 30, 2013 10:22am
Quoting Dewey McG
{quote} Great work! This is more of what we need
Great post. In my world moderators should be nearly invisible. The participants in the thread should police themselves in a civil manner. I see this is starting. I expect the thread get more focused after this. As long as you have an idea that is tied into similarity, all are welcome!

When xixi gets the mtf DZ indies online then we might ask for a bit of standardization, just to see what works.

Until then thanks for the contributions. A lot is being learned!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #383
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:31am Jul 30, 2013 10:31am
@Vlad - I feel your pain.
  • #384
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:33am Jul 30, 2013 10:33am
i did get some DEMOPIPS lol

first fail, second okey
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  • #385
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:34am Jul 30, 2013 10:34am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I would agree with this on Daily... ie. Don't use Daily. But the 4H is useful.
In the previous thread I posted a chart similar to this one, It's a Daily chart with BW MFI and volume to identify Broker, Institutional Speculators.

They are identified by the BLUE bars marked. They also happen to be Sunday bars, I use these zones in my trading ALL the time regardless of which system I employ. WHY?

Because these zones we are trying to identify are created by these players, so logically, If these players are in on this bar they will create zones that reject or propel price to and from these levels. EURUSDD said, " support and resistance traders are not far from the truth"

Now we also need to know that price movements that you see on your chart are NOT created by the retail traders. If you toss the BW MFI on a 1 min chart you will see every bar starts BLUE, then at some point in that bar they stop supporting that move and at the close the bar prints.

You can do the same for any time frame, the players will be in the market at the open moving price to entice other traders to jump in. Anyway, Daily bars and charts are important and should not be ignored, any other bar where there is a close of BLUE indicates the players are all in trying to establish another zone.

Look and see if these zones would or would not help.
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  • #386
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:40am Jul 30, 2013 10:40am
The 1H continues to be the timeframe for reference.

We now have a ZZTop and ZZBottom, with DS started giving a potential zone (blue horizontal lines)
Eurusdd used to say a lot, "where is price in relation to the un-printed zone" hinting that it would be cleared from that direction.

So in this case, I would like to think that the Green DS Zone will act as support and price will break 1.33XX to take out that north zone once DS ends.

Of course, price could prove me wrong and take out the green zone. However, the fast move we saw today I strongly believe was caused by the "fake" ZZTop which appeared in the middle of the Bollinger Band. This unresolved state created a "black hole" that needed to be resolved. The new Top and Bottom cancels out the wrinkle and thus leaves us with a ZZTop as the next swing.

P.S.
I triggered the longs based on the 5M which was a bit silly. I should have been looking at the 15M. Lessons learned.
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #387
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:48am Jul 30, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} In the previous thread I posted a chart similar to this one, It's a Daily chart with BW MFI and volume to identify Broker, Institutional Speculators. They are identified by the BLUE bars marked. They also happen to be Sunday bars, I use these zones in my trading ALL the time regardless of which system I employ. WHY? [b]Because these zones we are trying to identify are created by these players, so logically, If these players are in on this bar they will create zones that reject or propel price to and from these levels. EURUSDD said, " support...
Many thanks for this... very revealing!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #388
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:55am Jul 30, 2013 10:55am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} In the previous thread I posted a chart similar to this one, It's a Daily chart with BW MFI and volume to identify Broker, Institutional Speculators. They are identified by the BLUE bars marked. They also happen to be Sunday bars, I use these zones in my trading ALL the time regardless of which system I employ. WHY? Because these zones we are trying to identify are created by these players, so logically, If these players are in on this bar they will create zones that reject or propel price to and from these levels. EURUSDD said, " support...
For me these pivot values look very similar () to the "supply/demand" concept. In fact it seems a lot of people are saying the same things with different words or systems.
Please do not reply to my remark, this is not the place to do.
Thanks for sharing !
Enter Signature
  • #389
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:04am Jul 30, 2013 11:04am
Quoting Baillie
{quote} In the previous thread I posted a chart similar to this one, It's a Daily chart with BW MFI and volume to identify Broker, Institutional Speculators. They are identified by the BLUE bars marked.
Question: Since this indie takes (HI -LO) divided by Volume, wouldn't the volume be based on your broker's volume only? ie. (not meaning to get into the classic "there is no volume qty" in FX)

Don't get me wrong... this is actually fascinating stuff and should help "validate" some of the DS Zone levels.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #390
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:07am Jul 30, 2013 11:07am
Quoting juhanimi
starts there where arrow is, then draw vertical line and wait price to come there, then do what you think is right, uptrend, maybe buy? {image}
very much sums it up
I want more brain power!
  • #391
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:09am Jul 30, 2013 11:09am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Gosh I know how you feel! 3 longs underwater, but other 2 hedging the rest! LOL
3 longs closed in profit, taken from Signal #2 on Semafor on 5M.

Interim finding is that, if you took the signal as an entry - whilst a drawdown is possible, the target will be reached. Just based on memory, I think I only had 1 day where this did not happen by close of play and I closed the trades at a loss. But you need a large account size, no doubt about it.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #392
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:11am Jul 30, 2013 11:11am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} 3 longs closed in profit, taken from Signal #2 on Semafor on 5M. Interim finding is that, if you took the signal as an entry - whilst a drawdown is possible, the target will be reached. Just based on memory, I think I only had 1 day where this did not happen by close of play and I closed the trades at a loss. But you need a large account size, no doubt about it.

Well done Vlady!
  • #393
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:18am Jul 30, 2013 11:18am
Quoting candero
Alright, now approach and its result: 1. Dissim on M5/M1 (comparing M5 directly to M1, this means at every 5 minutes, trade direction defined by M5 signal) = win/loss 0.67 2. Same as 1. but reversed signals = win/loss 0.57 3. Madmoney approach, taking M1 signals in the direction of M5 signals = win/loss 0.65 4. Comparing current and confirmed M5 signal to the last 5 confirmed signals form M1 (purpose is to align the signals to the used data, in other words I tried to use the same data span to compare signals) = win/loss 0.66 5. [u][b]Same as 4....
This is awesome work. I will have a look and test it as well.
However, this is compelling : opposite last leg of ZZ strategy - increases win/loss ratio.
It should give confidence in pursuing and persisting with this "method". Interesting that if you align M5 and M1 signals it was .66 then whenever you took the opposite signal anyway, it increased to .71. Perhaps the ratio can be increased with better entry/exit rules.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #394
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:30am Jul 30, 2013 11:30am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Great post. In my world moderators should be nearly invisible. The participants in the thread should police themselves in a civil manner. I see this is starting. I expect the thread get more focused after this. As long as you have an idea that is tied into similarity, all are welcome! When xixi gets the mtf DZ indies online then we might ask for a bit of standardization, just to see what works. Until then thanks for the contributions. A lot is being learned!
Joe,
I already posted the first version of MTF DZ indicator here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post6854750
Take a look at it if you want to try before I complete the full version.
  • #395
  • Jul 30, 2013 11:35am Jul 30, 2013 11:35am
Quoting vlady1974
The 1H continues to be the timeframe for reference. We now have a ZZTop and ZZBottom, with DS started giving a potential zone (blue horizontal lines) Eurusdd used to say a lot, "where is price in relation to the un-printed zone" hinting that it would be cleared from that direction. So in this case, I would like to think that the Green DS Zone will act as support and price will break 1.33XX to take out that north zone once DS ends. Of course, price could prove me wrong and take out the green zone. However, the fast move we saw today I strongly...
Yes, I looked at your pic and got the same conclusion because I saw something. To describe/explain what I saw... We know DS zones being S&R and all that plus now that both our indicator lines are out of the BB (assuming I'm seeing the chart correctly) So stuff should be in BB most of time when they are out of it means......plus this happened at/very near the DS zone and I recall someone mentioned brick wall.So i do not think price has much to travel south.

I dare say it is a very high probability long. Will it take out the blue zone yes but when? Is good enough to make pips? Sure. Why? I am very confident price has very little room to move south
I want more brain power!
  • #396
  • Jul 30, 2013 12:35pm Jul 30, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting xixi
{quote} Joe, I already posted the first version of MTF DZ indicator here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post6854750 Take a look at it if you want to try before I complete the full version.
Thanks xixi for your hard work. It was very useful to look in the indicator edit file to see the values you give to the various TFs and stochs. I will keep to those in my tests as its good to have some standardisation.
  • #397
  • Jul 30, 2013 12:40pm Jul 30, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Question: Since this indie takes (HI -LO) divided by Volume, wouldn't the volume be based on your broker's volume only? ie. (not meaning to get into the classic "there is no volume qty" in FX) Don't get me wrong... this is actually fascinating stuff and should help "validate" some of the DS Zone levels.
Maybe an idea to see if your borker is representative of the whole volume in the market: take one support/resistance and measure the buy and sell volumes between the first bounce or break of this line and the second one (maybe this is the sum of the bear and bull indicators). The sum of the indicators should say '0'.

Maybe i am wrong : please correct me...
Enter Signature
  • #398
  • Jul 30, 2013 1:27pm Jul 30, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting juhanimi
me 2 still learning, so do not take this as a trading advice if uptrend continues, watch level 1.3235 if price goes there
1.3235 is tested now, hopefully 1.3355 next
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  • #399
  • Jul 30, 2013 2:09pm Jul 30, 2013 2:09pm
Quoting burnssss
Right now I'm focusing on the problem, I do this because there are still things left to relate but until you build the model, I can not improve it. My first step is to study the Hurst coefficient for all tf to make sure everyone keeps relationship with each other, and if not so operate with those who are closely related. Once done and checking the tf that are related to a number of periods, as it may change over time, build EMA1 expressions and STOCH with optimal parameters for one of the tf. construct the expression of relationship (EMA1 = STOCH%%...
Hey Burnssss. I might be able to code what you want... I am also bilingual (Hispanic) so feel free to PM in spanish.
  • #400
  • Jul 30, 2013 2:29pm Jul 30, 2013 2:29pm
does anybody can help me with my Q.. how can i put BB and mva on stoch on mt4?
when GOD brings you a challenge he also gives you the power to deal with it
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