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AUD/USD

  • #60,921
  • Jul 30, 2013 1:31am Jul 30, 2013 1:31am
Still no signs of BULLS at all
Gold Annihilation System
  • #60,922
  • Jul 30, 2013 1:32am Jul 30, 2013 1:32am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Don't worry. There's no confusion. It's all written out for everyone to see clearly who's playing with words. Yes it may be trivial stuff and I could of let it slide, but just wanted to point out you assumed incorrectly so others reading wouldn't take it incorrectly like you did. That's all. Wasn't making a big deal of it, hence the "just sayin'". You're the one turning a mole hill into a mountain. Aside from that you do seem to have an ego problem however. You can't admit you made a mistake in your assumption. Hopefully (for your sake)...
Whatever
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #60,923
  • Jul 30, 2013 1:32am Jul 30, 2013 1:32am
Quoting Hunterrus
Still no signs of BULLS at all
Why would there be lol. A big drop doesn't indicate bullishness.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #60,924
  • Jul 30, 2013 1:40am Jul 30, 2013 1:40am
you will see LOL infront of ur mirror, soon enough a small bull can appear
Gold Annihilation System
  • #60,925
  • Jul 30, 2013 1:47am Jul 30, 2013 1:47am
Quoting Hunterrus
you will see LOL infront of ur mirror, soon enough a small bull can appear
Doubt it. Bulls, or bullishness is a sentiment. I can still be a bear and have a short-term long. However, why step in front of a bullet train?

Price can retrace and have absolutely nothing to do with sentiment. It could be traders taking profits, hedges, etc.

I wouldn't touch it until consolidation. It's heading to .9035 if not retest .9
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #60,926
  • Jul 30, 2013 3:49am Jul 30, 2013 3:49am
Quoting plesac
{quote} AUDJPY is at that red support line.That was the plan.But AAUDUSD didnt make that. He even make a cross with conversion and base line over above the cloud, but after that 4hr close below base line and made 1 pip more. So i think this is going again to 9135 area or lower band of bolindzer bands {image} {image}
I got up and this is what i got.Nice.But.. for me if this 4 hr candle doesnt make 1 pip below previos this is going back up again, not that fast but upper nad of bolinger.

AUDJPY made close below support line on daily and 1 pips more (70 more but who counts) and this is beginig of new down on that pair i think. No stops before 83.50 i think if this is true. 79,50 below and that low at 72 area
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  • #60,927
  • Jul 30, 2013 4:03am Jul 30, 2013 4:03am
9070 is good resistance - selling from there
Gold Annihilation System
  • #60,928
  • Jul 30, 2013 4:15am Jul 30, 2013 4:15am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Even more open longs (vs shorts)... {image}
Hi there 2+2,

Your schematics on Current Trading Activity at OANDA give a useful picture of where traders are placed in a segment of the market. A similar situation is portrayed for trades reported on FF. The following image is from the Trades panel and it suggests to me that majority of traders and position (lots) are long and that judging by the average rate they are significantly under water.

AUD/USD

  1. 60% 119 traders
  2. 78 traders 40%


Open

  1. AUD/USD Open Positions


Open Position Statistics

Long

Short

All
Traders

119

78

197

Lots

28.6

11.0

39.6

Avg Entry

0.9447

0.9359

0.9422

Avg Trade Return

-4.7%

3.4%

-2.0%

Avg Trade Duration

6 weeks

3 weeks

5 weeks

Winning Trades

32

190

222

Losing Trades

387

25

412



However, I understand that this position is miniscule compared to the market at large and not even a standard amount dealt in one trade by a market maker but if it is representative of trades across many platforms in the retail market it could be significant unless they are hedgers rather than speculators.

  • #60,929
  • Jul 30, 2013 5:05am Jul 30, 2013 5:05am
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Hi there 2+2, Your schematics on Current Trading Activity at OANDA give a useful picture of where traders are placed in a segment of the market. A similar situation is portrayed for trades reported on FF. The following image is from the Trades panel and it suggests to me that majority of traders and position (lots) are long and that judging by the average rate they are significantly under water. AUD/USD 60% 119 traders 78 traders 40% Open...

nice point man, gimme a link please
Gold Annihilation System
  • #60,930
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:03am Jul 30, 2013 6:03am
Can today AUD/USD retrace to 0.9115 ?
  • #60,931
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:09am Jul 30, 2013 6:09am
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Hi there 2+2, Your schematics on Current Trading Activity at OANDA give a useful picture of where traders are placed in a segment of the market. A similar situation is portrayed for trades reported on FF. The following image is from the Trades panel and it suggests to me that majority of traders and position (lots) are long and that judging by the average rate they are significantly under water. .
Usually, they can't be relied on from what I noticed. Market normally will act the opposite direction. I believe the results are only retail traders and exclude the BB's transaction. BB's transaction are normally the real killer which move the market, although some may argue that forex is a trillion dollar business and cannot be moved.

Quoting Hunterrus
you will see LOL infront of ur mirror, soon enough a small bull can appear
Small bulls could mean merely a retracement from the huge drop.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #60,932
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:11am Jul 30, 2013 6:11am
Quoting Hunterrus
{quote} nice point man, gimme a link please
Hi Hunterrus,

http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.p...ions-details=5

Just click on the folder to the right of AUD/USD

Cheers
  • #60,933
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:18am Jul 30, 2013 6:18am
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Hi Hunterrus, http://www.forexfactory.com/trades.p...ions-details=5 Just click on the folder to the right of AUD/USD Cheers
hi mate - thanks
Gold Annihilation System
  • #60,934
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:19am Jul 30, 2013 6:19am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Usually, they can't be relied on from what I noticed. Market normally will act the opposite direction. I believe the results are only retail traders and exclude the BB's transaction. BB's transaction are normally the real killer which move the market, although some may argue that forex is a trillion dollar business and cannot be moved. {quote} Small bulls could mean merely a retracement from the huge drop.
Point taken, I have been trying to make sense of the numbers but know they are not necessarily representative of market at large. I have had reasonable success with technical trading but would like to get a better handle on the moves and feelings of the real market movers, who may or may not take advantage of support / resistance levels or chart formations to maximise their market operation. I did make comment on this earlier in the day in a quest to see if there was anyone out there that has this kind of market intelligence and could offer comment beyond the technical or event driven considerations.
  • #60,935
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:23am Jul 30, 2013 6:23am
Putting technical analysis aside again and for discussion sake, the RBA have been talking down and hammering their currency. I am curious of their motivation for doing it. What is the benefit of a lower Aussie when the livelihood of the Aussie people relied on imports to maintain their luxury lifestyle? Personally, i have lots of Australian friends which are living comfortably, having a carefree life and living in luxury.

Australia has a lifetime of resources for endless generations and many more untapped resource site. My Aussie friends told me that they are against further tampering of the land to prevent any possible pollution to the natural landscape. This really puzzled me as they chooses natural beauty to money. Any forumer from Australia want to comment?
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #60,936
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:30am Jul 30, 2013 6:30am
Quoting Ssm
Putting technical analysis aside again and for discussion sake, the RBA have been talking down and hammering their currency. I am curious of their motivation for doing it. What is the benefit of a lower Aussie when the livelihood of the Aussie people relied on imports to maintain their luxury lifestyle? Personally, i have lots of Australian friends which are living comfortably, having a carefree life and living in luxury. Australia has a lifetime of resources for endless generations and many more untapped resource site. My Aussie friends told me...

manipulation. watch aud reach new highs.

you know only connected people or ones that talk too much. In AU living standards are low if you are property investor (nearly everyone) . I feel sorry for people that never experienced joy of having glass of vine and can only do this when 74 and not earlier.
  • #60,937
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:33am Jul 30, 2013 6:33am
Quoting Ssm
Putting technical analysis aside again and for discussion sake, the RBA have been talking down and hammering their currency. I am curious of their motivation for doing it. What is the benefit of a lower Aussie when the livelihood of the Aussie people relied on imports to maintain their luxury lifestyle? Personally, i have lots of Australian friends which are living comfortably, having a carefree life and living in luxury. Australia has a lifetime of resources for endless generations and many more untapped resource site. My Aussie friends told me...
Technically, there is no reason to long at this point (unless scalping) and yet risky to short as well at such low level (unless .90 level is broken).

http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...ps102307d3.jpg
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #60,938
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:37am Jul 30, 2013 6:37am
Quoting Ssm
Putting technical analysis aside again and for discussion sake, the RBA have been talking down and hammering their currency. I am curious of their motivation for doing it. What is the benefit of a lower Aussie when the livelihood of the Aussie people relied on imports to maintain their luxury lifestyle? Personally, i have lots of Australian friends which are living comfortably, having a carefree life and living in luxury. Australia has a lifetime of resources for endless generations and many more untapped resource site. My Aussie friends told me...
I agree that it doesn't make much sense given the country's heavy reliance on imports and I suspect that some of the motivation is political given that there is an election due within 2 or 3 months. Commentary on Australia's growing debt has been critical and perhaps the lower ccy would help with revaluation of USD denominated debt. I also think that the govt is stuck between a rock and a hard place because on the one hand new taxes and regulation on business designed to increase revenue are making it very hard causing many mining projects to be cancelled or postponed which reduces revenue. A lower currency would naturally encourage exports but I think it's all a little bit too late as the lead time is not long enough. Sounds like a dog chasing its tail doesn't it.
  • #60,939
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:43am Jul 30, 2013 6:43am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Even more open longs (vs shorts)... {image}
.
Attached Image
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #60,940
  • Jul 30, 2013 6:55am Jul 30, 2013 6:55am
Too simple to see???
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