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  • #1,941
  • Jul 24, 2013 3:08am Jul 24, 2013 3:08am
Hi William

Yes, I am the biggest Chelsea fan you ever going to meet I'm glad that Mourinho is back and I believe that this is going to be a very, very
interesting season.

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. I think I get the basic idea (I hope ) You look for convergence in the averages that you
calculate from the higher time frames. You then wait for the market to be in " sync" and wait to see what PA tells you around those
averaged levels. Through my own number crunching ( my levels are definitely not as accurate as yours ) I see that there are a lot of orders
coming in and profit taking around those levels and finally cycle's normally end and start around those convergences. I really hope I understand the basic concept.

I have done hours and hours of research with my own " system" and levels. I want to send my findings to you via a PM if you don't mind otherwise I am just going to clog up your journal. Hopefully you will find it interesting, but I am sure that it is nothing new to you. You can
read it as soon as you have some free time. Thanks again for the reply.

Ivan
  • #1,942
  • Jul 24, 2013 12:52pm Jul 24, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting hallodaar
Hi William Yes, I am the biggest Chelsea fan you ever going to meet I'm glad that Mourinho is back and I believe that this is going to be a very, very interesting season. Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. I think I get the basic idea (I hope ) You look for convergence in the averages that you calculate from the higher time frames. You then wait for the market to be in " sync" and wait to see what PA tells you around those averaged levels. Through my own number crunching ( my levels are definitely not as accurate as yours...
yes you have the general idea.

heres example 2 to show the usefulness of calc possible outcome,always considering we can not predict the moment .price just completed cycle,again that level had lots of convergence with averages and split lows.i would now recalculate the shorter time frame averages and there high points and low.using present price action around the new averages for next trade
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  • #1,943
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:31am Jul 25, 2013 2:31am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} yes you have the general idea. heres example 2 to show the usefulness of calc possible outcome,always considering we can not predict the moment .price just completed cycle,again that level had lots of convergence with averages and split lows.i would now recalculate the shorter time frame averages and there high points and low.using present price action around the new averages for next trade {image}
Hi William

Thank you for showing me another example. Ok, I am now on the same page as you. That level you marked on your chart where the cycle
completed ( 15301 ) is so accurate, it is actually mind boggling. I need strong coffee and then back to the drawing board again :nerd:Thanks for
everything and I will keep you updated.

Ivan
  • #1,944
  • Jul 25, 2013 3:45am Jul 25, 2013 3:45am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} yes you have the general idea. heres example 2 to show the usefulness of calc possible outcome,always considering we can not predict the moment .price just completed cycle,again that level had lots of convergence with averages and split lows.i would now recalculate the shorter time frame averages and there high points and low.using present price action around the new averages for next trade {image}
Hi diceman!

Forgive me for not having the time to read 88 pages of this thread but are the results you are posting here for the same strategy you started out with?
  • #1,945
  • Jul 25, 2013 4:19am Jul 25, 2013 4:19am
Quoting diceman555
i have 4 kids and ex wives all of who are squeezing my little testies so tight i talk with a squeal
Also this made me laugh!
  • #1,946
  • Edited 10:24am Jul 25, 2013 9:31am | Edited 10:24am
Ok, I took a small step forward today. I have calculated a lot of levels.

1st Chart : 15 Min chart with only the 3 Monthly levels. I am almost a 100% sure the middle line is correct, but still not confident with the top and bottom line, but on the other hand, both leading candles took off exactly on those levels

2nd Chart : 1 Min Chart with only the Daily and Monthly levels on chart. Price seem to respect these levels so far

( Sorry William for posting 2 screenshots in your journal. I will only post a chart now and again when I discover something interesting)

Ivan
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  • #1,947
  • Jul 27, 2013 1:53am Jul 27, 2013 1:53am
Quoting mogulmedia
{quote} Hi diceman! Forgive me for not having the time to read 88 pages of this thread but are the results you are posting here for the same strategy you started out with?

hi,

my method of trading from the start of my journal to today is similar but has evolved as i have developed tools for trying to understand and trade with more advantage regarding bias .ive realized that trading fx which predominantly has random behavior one needs to capture a moment within it when it adheres to a semblance of structure .i know this sounds heavy but trading intraday has many disadvantages.its very random due to the multitude of participants that require its usage.

having said that,you can trade scalping the quote price from previous areas of interest and have an edge.if i was twenty thats all i would do but im not sharp enough to do that full time.

im glad you enjoyed my quip about our lovely friends ,woman,ill say no more on the subject as that would require many journals.they are totally nuts,and if the world was left in there hands it would be one huge mud wrestling contest.
  • #1,948
  • Jul 27, 2013 1:55am Jul 27, 2013 1:55am
Quoting hallodaar
Ok, I took a small step forward today. I have calculated a lot of levels. 1st Chart : 15 Min chart with only the 3 Monthly levels. I am almost a 100% sure the middle line is correct, but still not confident with the top and bottom line, but on the other hand, both leading candles took off exactly on those levels 2nd Chart : 1 Min Chart with only the Daily and Monthly levels on chart. Price seem to respect these levels so far ( Sorry William for posting 2 screenshots in your journal. I will only post a chart now and again when I...
yes that 33 level average was perfect.sorry but cant answer in full today as i have busy day ill try tonight or tomorrow.
  • #1,949
  • Jul 28, 2013 4:22am Jul 28, 2013 4:22am
Quoting mogulmedia
{quote} Hi diceman! Forgive me for not having the time to read 88 pages of this thread but are the results you are posting here for the same strategy you started out with?
i cant remember the traders name ive read one of his interviews hes one of the most successful fx traders .i will try to find his interview.he trades from level 2 and scalps 3 ,4 pips from reading the orders hes made a vast fortune trading that way.
  • #1,950
  • Jul 28, 2013 6:16am Jul 28, 2013 6:16am
Quoting hallodaar
Ok, I took a small step forward today. I have calculated a lot of levels. 1st Chart : 15 Min chart with only the 3 Monthly levels. I am almost a 100% sure the middle line is correct, but still not confident with the top and bottom line, but on the other hand, both leading candles took off exactly on those levels 2nd Chart : 1 Min Chart with only the Daily and Monthly levels on chart. Price seem to respect these levels so far ( Sorry William for posting 2 screenshots in your journal. I will only post a chart now and again when I...
the middle level is the month average.

when you say price respected that level i would be careful how you mentally approach this.its so important to not pre determine bias.the average levels only represent a calculated level of were orders will be sitting or were most likely positions will be adjusted.we have no bias were constructing our portrait of price but from this point the portait of price will determine bias from the orders.this is were i use the value changes of the related pairs to enter with flows.the full portrait becomes clearer when you apply the other averages especially when they converge .we dont know whats in the book .

what we can do is to understand the price.for example price has been trading above the monthly average15330. and below the split highs which have converged from 15420 to 40 level.were scalping between these points whilst price has some temporary agreement between these levels.we can also see this in the value changes of related pairs.

its very difficult to explain my trading in a couple of posts its years of development.

look at a london open and see price being manipulated to swoop .price can be taken in the opposite direction 20 ,30 pips this often shows as a pin at a split low were orders sitting there will be triggered .nice for those with the power to do so.these are ideal entry points often taken our position into safty.again the values tell us this.work with the averages and the values.try to find the extended complete cycle levels pivots will work but there not perfect

dice
  • #1,951
  • Edited 3:39am Jul 29, 2013 3:15am | Edited 3:39am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} the middle level is the month average. when you say price respected that level i would be careful how you mentally approach this.its so important to not pre determine bias.the average levels only represent a calculated level of were orders will be sitting or were most likely positions will be adjusted.we have no bias were constructing our portrait of price but from this point the portait of price will determine bias from the orders.this is were i use the value changes of the related pairs to enter with flows.the full portrait becomes clearer...
Hi William, I hope you are well.

I agree 100% that one should not use the averaged levels as a pre determined bias. Like you said the levels help us create a portrait or "framework of price. It is easier for me at the moment to create the averaged levels on the higher time frames. I have no idea how often I should update the levels on the lower time frames. The other thing is your split high and low levels. You said in your journal that you calculate those levels using the circular movement of price. I'll be honest , I'm still struggling big time to calculate those levels. I have also found through some of the charts that you posted, that these levels are much more accurate than pivots.

I also believe that there are huge value if one were to combine your levels with the candy, donkey and ivar indicator. I still have tons of questions and ideas floating around in my mind. The difficult part is to organize my thoughts and put the ideas down on paper and on the charts.

Regards

Ivan
  • #1,952
  • Jul 29, 2013 11:43am Jul 29, 2013 11:43am
Quoting hallodaar
{quote} Hi William, I hope you are well. I agree 100% that one should not use the averaged levels as a pre determined bias. Like you said the levels help us create a portrait or "framework of price. It is easier for me at the moment to create the averaged levels on the higher time frames. I have no idea how often I should update the levels on the lower time frames. The other thing is your split high and low levels. You said in your journal that you calculate those levels using the circular movement of price. I'll be honest , I'm still struggling...
yes those indis can be a system on there own,i use them for quick scalping on 1 min trading the fractal breaks and the deviations from the mean but its difficult with my platform the spreads open and close trapping me in.im working on a mechanical system with those indies but a long way from complete.

i sent you a msg which has disappeared from my sent box this is second time it has happened recently,um alot to rewrite wen time permits.

heres some levels calculated over the wkend,look how price has found interest at those levels and a perfect long from the monthly which we were trading last week,contertrend but if short ideal closing price and going long ,cycle just completed,time to recalculate.
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  • #1,953
  • Jul 30, 2013 1:56pm Jul 30, 2013 1:56pm
heres that monthly level again giving us a simple short from the pin,paused at the 4 hour and then down to the monthly split high,i wouldnt be surprised to see the monthly split low,but i dont intend to stay up all night watching 1 min charts,jobs done for the day 100 pips in that clear short
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  • #1,954
  • Jul 31, 2013 2:13am Jul 31, 2013 2:13am
Quoting diceman555
heres that monthly level again giving us a simple short from the pin,paused at the 4 hour and then down to the monthly split high,i wouldnt be surprised to see the monthly split low,but i dont intend to stay up all night watching 1 min charts,jobs done for the day 100 pips in that clear short {image}
Hi William

The previous 2 chart examples that you posted are awesome. I have never seen anybody give structure to price like you do with those levels.
A lot of people regard Crucial Point as being " clued" up with the lower time frames, but for me you are the clear winner . You must actually start a thread with the name " Inside the mind of Diceman555 "

Ok,I can calculate the Monthly , Weekly and Daily averaged levels. If I am not mistaken they are all calculated the same way, but how on
earth do you calculate the other time frames averaged levels and how often do you " refresh" them.

Once again those split high and low levels. William do you maybe have a clue for me how to calculate them. Is there anything that I can study
or read up on to get a better understanding. I just need a little push in the right direction.

Regards

Ivan
  • #1,955
  • Jul 31, 2013 2:19am Jul 31, 2013 2:19am
O yes, before I forget. There must be some people reading your journal and maybe reading some of my posts and wondering, why on earth is this guy so hung up on those levels, just get on with it, lol. I still believe that if I use my own " system " and PA around those levels for entries, one will be able to make very very low risk entries with tight stops.

Regards

Ivan
  • #1,956
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:07am Aug 4, 2013 4:07am
Quoting hallodaar
O yes, before I forget. There must be some people reading your journal and maybe reading some of my posts and wondering, why on earth is this guy so hung up on those levels, just get on with it, lol. I still believe that if I use my own " system " and PA around those levels for entries, one will be able to make very very low risk entries with tight stops. Regards Ivan
heres fridays example,perfect price action.these levels were calculated from thursday 1st day of month.

if you look at previous 2 month candles the price from open and close was extremely tight within the daily range.the split highs and lows well within range ,so this eliminated the lower time frames some what.price on last day of month hit the monthly split low.
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  • #1,957
  • Aug 4, 2013 4:42am Aug 4, 2013 4:42am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} hi thoughts, ive just checked my sent messages and the reply is not there,i spent a long time to answer your questions in depth,damm pc,s,if i can find the time and inclination to do again i will,
Just noticed your reply Diceman. Thanks a mil for getting back..Its a pity when the PC steals posts..I've had the 'pleasure' of that experience once or twice, so for lengthy PMs I type up first in a text editor. I'll attempt to comb through the thread a bit later on to see if I can figure things out..and keep an eye out in case you get a second wind...and if you do, please type up in Word first
  • #1,958
  • Aug 4, 2013 7:05am Aug 4, 2013 7:05am
this is the 1 min chart for entry,the first part of the move was driven by the obvious news,difficult to get entry.but 2 perfect entries marked on the chart no drawdown.confirmed by related pairs.

i will recalculate the levels tonight.the gap in price interests me when retracment to the average takes place.if you look at this on a second chart you can see how price is tracted to the levels before soaking up the orders and moving to the next point of interest,the split highs.to become averages
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  • #1,959
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:59pm Aug 5, 2013 2:59pm
hi ivan,

these are the levels i used today.

the 15 min and 1 hour are taken from the lead candle normally at a level.i adjust mine when when a new swing starts.my example on 15 min should clarify this,you can come down smaller but this can become complicated,i do this with 1 min to see 1 min cycles . the convergence is what i look for you will be surprised how the levels rotate between the time frames within a couple of pips.

of coarse we still need to see momentum and the overall harmony or not.

the upper splits and lower splits are taken from those lead candles,

the levels have opened up the upper band is 16018,and lower 14198.these are from weekly,no im not expecting to see these levels this week but log them and look for convergence to one of those points.

hope that helps

dice
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  • #1,960
  • Aug 7, 2013 3:20am Aug 7, 2013 3:20am
Quoting diceman555
hi ivan, these are the levels i used today. the 15 min and 1 hour are taken from the lead candle normally at a level.i adjust mine when when a new swing starts.my example on 15 min should clarify this,you can come down smaller but this can become complicated,i do this with 1 min to see 1 min cycles . the convergence is what i look for you will be surprised how the levels rotate between the time frames within a couple of pips. of coarse we still need to see momentum and the overall harmony or not. the upper splits and lower splits are taken from...
Hi William, I apologize for my delayed reply. I was just looking at the Chelsea website and some transfer rumors. Some very interesting things still ahead before the transfer window closes

William thank you very much for the chart examples and some very interesting key points that you mentioned in the previous post. You have definitely clarified and answered some of my questions that I had. It is now up to me to see if I can spot the clues and calculate the correct levels. Lot's of work still left, but things are much clearer now. I will keep you updated.

Regards

Ivan
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