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This is the forecast I wrote the last week, and it seems to be on the right track so far.

NZD/USD Is Likely to Start an Uptrend

What do you think when looking at the weekly chart of NZD/USD? The pair has bounced up from the trend line of a multiple-month uptrend. So, there is a great possibility that this bounce is the start of an upward marathon. Remember, NZD as a commodity currency has a very typical characteristic of commodity family: once it actually rallies, it will keep climbing non-stop for a very long period (no one want to sell the currency due to its sweet interests).


Let’s zoom in to the daily chart. With naked eyes solely, we can still observe that NZD/USD just wants to go up. However, please notice that NZD/USD is approaching a considerable resistance at 0.81, where the upward momentum of the pair may pause temporarily for several days.

NZD/USD has retraced a little bit from the 0.81 barrier. Let's wait to see how much it will retrace.

As I said in the previous forecast of NZDUSD, the pair faced a firm barrier at 0.8100 and lost its upward momentum for several days. NZDUSD has then climbed again after bottoming at 0.7740, and it is aiming to test the 0.8100 resistance the second time.

http://www.forexadvantage.info/wp-co...g13-nzdusd.png

So, what’s next for NZDUSD? To predict the future of NZDUSD, we have to look at the general tone of the forex market where EURUSD always plays a key role. I think EURUSD is not ripe enough for a sharp drop right in this week. The momentum of EURUSD still remains upward, and there will still be some room for EURUSD to push up a little bit. In a situation that NZD, AUD, CAD, GBP… have fallen so much against USD, any slight rise of EURUSD will provide a ground for these currencies to rally, perhaps very hard.

In conclusion, my forecast is that EURUSD will go up slightly, or at least move sideways this week. This brings a good condition for NZDUSD to break through the 0.8100 barrier.