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  • #8,201
  • Jul 26, 2013 5:29pm Jul 26, 2013 5:29pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I think you guys need to be more supportive of my friend Ck. We are both intraday traders, and I am often shorter than that, and that is a very tough thing to do. I bet none of you can scalp GJ with a reasonable sense of accuracy, day in and day out. I know I have had a LONG learning curve over the years and it is still going on in fact. I almost responded to that post and was going to say be careful dude, but we all have to make our own decisions in the end. Give us daytraders a little more respect because I can assure you it is a very,...


Geppy's a cool dude. We don't have any problems.

Next week's gonna be interesting m8s!

Looking forward to selling into any strength on UJ. I really prefer to position trade and get in on trends and I'm thinking UJ might be a nice mover to downside so might look for an entry to stay short. Really sucks having to watch markets for hours on end and then you end up missing the big parts of the moves you saw coming because you're in and out taking profits.

Gotta be more disciplined next week and be super patient as always, enjoy the weekend
  • #8,202
  • Edited 11:06pm Jul 26, 2013 6:26pm | Edited 11:06pm
Yes....trading less if one had 3 million ....then one doesn't drive so hard to make "PAYROLL".....This is the thin vacation market till October....or the second half of September it tries to normalize.....so trading swings won't work at all. Here's a tidbit....scalp the slow steady currencies during slack movement periods between sessions...but the New York open seems to scalp well for 3 hours or so. It's tuff work but you can actually get 100 pips in 7 hours or even 6.... with no negatives going for 1 or 2 pips at a time.
  • #8,203
  • Jul 26, 2013 10:32pm Jul 26, 2013 10:32pm
Thanks. I'm not trying to make enemies here, I just think that everyone needs to be respectful of everyone... and their opinions.

Quoting Ck87
Really sucks having to watch markets for hours on end and then you end up missing the big parts of the moves you saw coming because you're in and out taking profits.
Yeah, I completely agree with this. I wanted to respond because I think this is EXACTLY my problem. I couldn't have said it any better myself! Looks like I will be working on the same things as you next week... lol

Have a good weekend everyone. I know I'll be doing a lot of homework for my trading so I'll be ready to kick it off big on Sunday.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,204
  • Jul 26, 2013 11:14pm Jul 26, 2013 11:14pm
If we break through that 61 line news might not matter for a while. This seems completely technical.. longer term players who sold this week might be in some damn good profit. It will be a struggle for yen this month then we tapering is coming upon us. Goldman Sachs is calling for a higher Dow.. but I personally never trust big firms projections. Expecially the ones who created the housing bubbles.. hah. Might just be starting to step into a global pump and dump.

Those are just my personal border line conspiracy theories though.
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #8,205
  • Edited 11:57pm Jul 26, 2013 11:41pm | Edited 11:57pm
Quoting str33t
If we break through that 61 line news might not matter for a while. This seems completely technical.. longer term players who sold this week might be in some damn good profit. It will be a struggle for yen this month then we tapering is coming upon us. Goldman Sachs is calling for a higher Dow.. but I personally never trust big firms projections. Expecially the ones who created the housing bubbles.. hah. Might just be starting to step into a global pump and dump. Those are just my personal border line conspiracy theories though.
Hah! I love it!!! I have a general sense of distrust towards those institutions too, but occasionally they can be right.

I do actually agree that the Dow has some room to go higher... but we are in pullback mode right now, so I'm going to restrain from making any predictions... and it's been a few days since I've checked the S&P. Although I definitely feel like the stock market has a tendency to overreact to anything and everything Uncle Ben says. He's only talking about a *potential* tapering... just to give the markets a heads up for when it actually does happen. Keep in mind, he is trying to be the most transparent Fed Chairman we've ever had. But in my opinion, it's going to be a long while still. The jobs data is either 1) hardly improving, or 2) not improving fast enough, and although I don't follow that much either, I believe it's all due to the pathetically poor policy/policies we have in place, and that is not going to change anytime soon. I doubt Bernanke actually tapers later this year.

Did you guys hear about how Larry Summers might head the Fed? I don't know how much credence I'll give to this just yet, but I'm not so sure I like the sound of it. Summers has too many connections to Obummer and the Democratic party that it makes me particularly nervous.

Speaking of the devil... Pip Anon, I hope you don't mind... but I couldn't help but steal your profile pic. It is so awesome and perfect and I just love it! That is one of my favorite, favorite movies! I guess you can say that I have now joined you in the revolution...

Oh, and yeah, to your first point... I have always thought this market is completely technical. I don't know anything anyone can say to make me change my mind on that. Just be VERY careful using the technicals around big news events. I've been screwed too many times just because "I didn't know about something" lol
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,206
  • Edited 12:31am Jul 27, 2013 12:20am | Edited 12:31am
Best quote from the movie: "People shouldn't be afraid of their government. Governments should be afraid of their people."

Doesn't that explain why Obummer and his staff had to reach new lows by targeting tea-party groups in what is becoming known as this "IRS scandal"???

The Tea Party speaks the truth... the DNC tries to prevent the truth from getting out...

This administration wouldn't last another day if the public only knew the "games" that are being played. They want you all to be ignorant... so they can keep playing their filthy games. This is the most egregious government ever, it makes me sick, and the proof is that they've persuaded (or perhaps bought?) out the media to keep you all uninformed.

Watch this video here... it will blow your mind:
Inserted Video
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,207
  • Jul 27, 2013 12:35am Jul 27, 2013 12:35am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I was out last night, schmuck. My account never takes "batterings"... I'm not a noob. I use proper risk/reward and have a win rate of 72%. Don't open your mouth when you have no clue what you're talking about.
I don't much like tough rude talking online. It's pointless I can't smash your face in afterwards.
  • #8,208
  • Jul 27, 2013 3:54am Jul 27, 2013 3:54am
I've got a question for anyone that can answer.. Ive only been trading for 6 months but I've been a bit of an economics nut for a long while..

How is it the lack of surplus in the states and increasing debt somehow been shadowed since 2008 in the strength of the dollar and euro pairs..

In the options market were the only "commodity" that seems to do this.. you'd be nuts to buy a stock that doesn't report earnings and continues to borrow huge sums of money from its competitors.. china being one our biggest lenders..
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #8,209
  • Jul 27, 2013 11:57am Jul 27, 2013 11:57am
Quoting Pumpndump
{quote} I don't much like tough rude talking online. It's pointless I can't smash your face in afterwards.
Wow, way to contradict yourself.

You don't like tough talk online, and then you attempt to talk tough.

Too funny
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  • #8,210
  • Jul 27, 2013 12:18pm Jul 27, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting Pumpndump
I don't much like tough rude talking online. It's pointless I can't smash your face in afterwards.
I thought it was funny too

str33t, I'll take a stab at your question in a min...
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,211
  • Edited Jul 28, 2013 12:21am Jul 27, 2013 1:09pm | Edited Jul 28, 2013 12:21am
Quoting str33t
I've got a question for anyone that can answer.. Ive only been trading for 6 months but I've been a bit of an economics nut for a long while.. How is it the lack of surplus in the states and increasing debt somehow been shadowed since 2008 in the strength of the dollar and euro pairs.. In the options market were the only "commodity" that seems to do this.. you'd be nuts to buy a stock that doesn't report earnings and continues to borrow huge sums of money from its competitors.. china being one our biggest lenders..
Ok str33t, I'm giving your question a shot, but I'll admit that I am not entirely clear what your question actually is? Anyway, here's what I know and see at least from my perspective.

I just pulled up a chart of the EU (Euro/Usd) and it looks bullish to me. The Monthly chart below shows that EU has been in a range since late 2008, but I'd expect it to breakout to the upside from here especially with the bullish day that was ~ 07-10-2013. I am not sure how much of this is due to the lack of surplus and absolute excess of debt... You can see that we have still not even come close to those 2008 levels, which means that the dollar has actually been strengthening against the euro (perhaps because the euro has been so weak -- relative to everything else). That is generally good if the dollar strengthens, but I personally would not expect it to keep strengthening much longer, and I don't want to check many other pairs but it'd be interesting to see how the dollar has performed relative to all currencies not just the EU and especially relative to hard assets. I am sure that hard assets like commodities and especially gold have gained a lot of value over the years and will continue to do so as long as the inflation bias is in tact around the world. This is why Jim Rogers is the greatest commodity investor in the world. He is so steadfast in his beliefs it is always interesting to hear from him and you can really learn a lot. His analysis is so simple, yet so true.

Attached Image


With that said, I believe that currencies, stocks, commodities, whatever, can make some unusual moves regardless of what I call "the fundamentals". All of this debt talk, inflation, etc. I think groups into this category. So despite this stuff, markets can still do whatever they want because it's just a game of supply and demand. My viewpoint is that the market takes EVERYTHING into consideration at all times. The market is smart, and you need to be even smarter to beat it. The market is not just about pure technicals or pure fundamentals, but rather people's expectations. Don't think so much about things like "expected value" or "implied value" in the stockmarket (the only place where IV is important is options) because you really need to try to understand the market from the point of a floor trader... they're the ones who create the moves after all, and in the FX world I guess the equivalent would be central banks.

China is no doubt one of our biggest lenders, if not the biggest, and I think it could be a matter of time before China steps back and goes their own way. They are smart enough to know that we can not repay our own debts. Their is already much evidence that China is hoarding the world's gold supply in order to start their own gold-backed currency. This would be detrimental to the U.S. being the reserve currency of the world, and thus detrimental to the U.S. if it were true... I guess there's a bit of MY personal borderline conspiracy theory...

I hope that answers your question... or at least some of it!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,212
  • Edited 12:17pm Jul 28, 2013 3:29am | Edited 12:17pm
Is UJ forming a temporary bottom?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #8,213
  • Jul 28, 2013 12:01pm Jul 28, 2013 12:01pm
GJ ride the bolinger band, and still up
http://i43.tinypic.com/30wphqp.png
  • #8,214
  • Jul 28, 2013 5:06pm Jul 28, 2013 5:06pm
Personal prediction for the week. Retracement back to 786 of the 2 month swing-hi-low then back down. currently set up like this for the early part of the week.

If we fall through the 50% might need to pull my bear claws back out.. lolz.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #8,215
  • Jul 28, 2013 6:42pm Jul 28, 2013 6:42pm
Quoting str33t
I've got a question for anyone that can answer.. Ive only been trading for 6 months but I've been a bit of an economics nut for a long while.. How is it the lack of surplus in the states and increasing debt somehow been shadowed since 2008 in the strength of the dollar and euro pairs.. In the options market were the only "commodity" that seems to do this.. you'd be nuts to buy a stock that doesn't report earnings and continues to borrow huge sums of money from its competitors.. china being one our biggest lenders..
IMO, the dollar and euro are almost affected solely based on politics with a hint of economic backing.I have watched the euro spike on shite data repeated times. I believe there is a large amount of speculation and the direction is not always based upon underlying factors.

Buying eurodollar is not like buying shares of Wal-Mart or Exxon. Currencies have too many variables to single out any one in particular.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,216
  • Jul 28, 2013 6:53pm Jul 28, 2013 6:53pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} IMO, the dollar and euro are almost affected solely based on politics with a hint of economic backing.I have watched the euro spike on shite data repeated times. I believe there is a large amount of speculation and the direction is not always based upon underlying factors. Buying eurodollar is not like buying shares of Wal-Mart or Exxon. Currencies have too many variables to single out any one in particular.
it seems sort of backwards.. but I guess it is what it is..

Coming from a still fresh mind for trading. I would figure the less money a government brings in and more they spend should surely lower the value of the currency.. But like you said, must be sort of different from when a company reports losses..
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #8,217
  • Jul 28, 2013 6:57pm Jul 28, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting str33t
{quote} it seems sort of backwards.. but I guess it is what it is.. Coming from a still fresh mind for trading. I would figure the less money a government brings in and more they spend should surely lower the value of the currency.. But like you said, must be sort of different from when a company reports losses..
I quickly realized when I first started trading currencies, it doesn't matter what I think the outcome to news, data, etc should be. I am a minnow in a giant ocean.

It is best not to trade the news but to trade the reaction (market) to the news. And even then you have to be careful.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,218
  • Jul 28, 2013 7:08pm Jul 28, 2013 7:08pm
Quoting smash1820
Best quote from the movie: "People shouldn't be afraid of their government. Governments should be afraid of their people." Doesn't that explain why Obummer and his staff had to reach new lows by targeting tea-party groups in what is becoming known as this "IRS scandal"??? The Tea Party speaks the truth... the DNC tries to prevent the truth from getting out... This administration wouldn't last another day if the public only knew the "games" that are being played. They want you all to be ignorant... so they can keep playing their filthy games....
It is, but taken and refurbished from a quote made by Thomas Jefferson, although the words hold truth. Words will always obtain their power and the means to meaning, and the who will listen the annunciation of truth!

Even though it was just a movie, I think those with an open mind thought hard after seeing it. I believe the movie was out in 2005, and it is scary to see some of the very things in that movie are happening with this administration. The government won't fear the people until the people strike fear onto the government.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,219
  • Jul 28, 2013 8:04pm Jul 28, 2013 8:04pm
the global finances are run by market operators with a program.....we now have the sovergn wealth funds with trillions.....game over....play your short term systems
...
way back in 2005, we found that the cbot knew a day ahead what the market limits would be....Chicago set the limits at 1 am.....
  • #8,220
  • Jul 28, 2013 8:44pm Jul 28, 2013 8:44pm
Look at that yen go, mentioned it was a crowed short!:nerd:
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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