AUD/USD

Well, I think it bounces in this 9230-40 zone and shoots up through 9300 for 9400 next week. I could be horribly wrong though.

This is probably the last chance I'll give it to do that... If it breaks back below 9220-9200 I'll start looking for the 9000 area again.

potential beaarish engulfing in the 4 hour

True. And it's at the top of that H4 downward channel. Let's see...

key area to watch now is weekly pivot at 0.9180

but before that we will hit the daily 200 ema at 0.9200

Daily 200 ema is 700 pips higher. You mean H1...

oh sorry i meant h1 ema.

well hit the TP1. lets see where it goes more.

http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...ps4d3ea665.jpg

Again, this historical resistance line since 2009 proved a hard nut to crack. Price has been rejecting this level several times and some not even close to it. Only when we have a daily close above this level that we know its bullish.

Hope I can share my view on Aussie.

Not looking at the chart, fundamentally I am still bullish in Aussie due to the fact that Asia is still growing at a good pace and China destocking is slowing down, and bearing in mind that China has yet to deploy any QE to stimulate her economy, so there is still rooms for growth. However, looking at the charts, I am looking for possible reversal sign on this pair but unfortunately could not find any. A break and daily close above .933 level will gives more confident to the bulls.

Not looking so hot for my 9300+ for this week. Can't remember who said it but if 9300 was going to be properly taken it would have slammed through earlier in the week. Whoever it was anyway was right. Another disappointing Friday for me.

I agree with you Ssm, i think it's going higher, the China risk question is overblown in my opinion. I wanted to see shorts around the 9400-500 area - but when you look at your weekly chart, this seems like quite a puny bounce. Lower might be the easier option.

I agree, but .9330 was hard to reach and the Bears pushed it off a cliff once we got there. If it can get higher than .9330 could be "short lived" but something in the .95-.96 area before Bears step back in would make sense.

I'm all for a Bullish Aussie but I have a hard time seeing anything higher than .97 even with a break of .933, at least for now

Have a good weekend

Sooo it looks like it's coming down

Edit : it5 may come only to 0,914

Although price went past the 61.8 Fib mark on the C line price on the 4 hr is looking like it has a good chance at forming a complete ABCD pattern! What do you think?

Just check out this text book ABCD pattern that formed on the 15 min chart today.............WOW !!! doesn't get much better then that!!

I Closed my short on Aussie ...I dont keep position's over the weekend if the profit are is not larger then 100 pip
the thing if the picture is right and you still believe in the outcome then you can reenter your position afther market open whit a smal difference...

GL and have a nice weekend

Cheer's

This is a Weekly Chart..........

I believe we are in the retrace of wave 4, before one more wave down to complete the cycle......................

Alien we may need one last new low before the 4th wave correction. .93 today formed a bearish engulfing in the 4 hour chart and continues to close the daily below trendline as well as the 78.6% retrace (.92771) in the hour. Maybe the .866 area before the next leg up. At this point every bounce into .93 is getting the living hell beat out of it

I hope the nice wave pattern will not break and the play of Bull and Bear will be on....

Hi SSM,

I think that as far as technicals are concerned Aussie may be range bound for the moment between 90 and 93, especially in the absence of new data and whilst the nation wallows in political issues. It is therefore helpful to keep fundamentals in the back of mind to prepare for the next big move.

Asia and China in particularly has been good to the economy in the past but I suspect that Asia and Australia are moving in different directions. Costs, regulation and labour market practices in Australia are increasingly a disincentive to doing business and productivity across the economy has been problematic for decades. The nation is at a point where these issues need to be dealt with if there is to be natural support for the currency because China has other options and after all I think mining only represents around 10% of GDP. Unless these things are dealt with, and perhaps elections later this year may change this, Aussie could settle around historical levels between 75 and 80 cents.

I believe this coming week, this pair will be moving or bouncing around 0.915 to 0.93, or might be higher due to tuesday building approval..... 2nd week of August might be the game changer... Bear or bull