Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 32 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #621
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:52am Jul 25, 2013 2:52am
Hello again!
You have not told us what indicator you are referring to. In the zip the auto supply/demand indicator is not attached so it's impossible that your charts can display the levels unless you draw them manually (the rectangle reader indicator will extend it).

Download the attached indicator, it's the auto SD indicator that I use, I modified it a bit to display price labels in both distal and proximal lines as well as having the possibility of setting the labels colors, white by default.

Alfonso

Quoting esanjayplaye
I am using your template with indicators installed in the experts/indicator folder of MT4
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Supply_Demand_Zones.ex4   36 KB | 3,312 downloads
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #622
  • Jul 25, 2013 3:13am Jul 25, 2013 3:13am
Planning a short trade on H1 supply on AUDJPY.

Missed the top entry area in green on the retest, The new zone has absorbed demand on the left which is compressed (reaction to reactions)

Price bounced from D1 supply, and absorbing demand in the lower timeframes while respecting supply.

There was a nice H4 original supply area which should have been my order, but my order was sitting on the distal line instead, rules were OK for the entry on the lower one, pity!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 139 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 146 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #623
  • Edited 4:17am Jul 25, 2013 3:31am | Edited 4:17am
You are welcome Derek!

You have a different Weekly demand area to mine. Mine is painted like that, it's been used up and not making higher highs, nor absorbing previous demand on the WK timeframe.

I wouldn't set and forget down there myself, I would wait for confirmation, brand new H4/H1 demand levels to be formed and trade the pullbacks.

The level you are pointing out could definetely work, it's at my WK proximal line, not the distal. It's 42 pips wide, I would need to add wiggle room of 5-7 pips so it would be like 50 pips risk, too much for me.

It's a pin candle with a long wick at the WK demand, yes, it could work! Either a drilled down entry or a confirmation entry.

Alfonso


Quoting Sdprice
{quote} Thanks for the reply alfonso, could you please look at my USD/CHF H1 demand level within the WK and D1 demand level. On the 1H chart the level is fresh and original. Is this a good level, could you please let me know about the quality of this level and my Demand zones? Thank you Alfonso {image}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 141 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 131 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #624
  • Edited 5:09am Jul 25, 2013 4:57am | Edited 5:09am
I had a loss yesterday tryng to buy the GBPCAD on a H4 demand as you can see where I have the blue level painted. The highs were taken out and my rules say I have to buy... but it didn't work TL was up as you can see and demand was being respected... but then market dynamics changed...

This is the loss:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 68 KB


Market dynamics then changed and I took a short. H4 trend changed and previous demand was taken out, there was a brand new H4 supply area that absorbed that demand and the trade was right at that speedbump. SL will be moved to Breakeven after 2:1 the risk.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 60 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #625
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:13am Jul 25, 2013 5:13am
Hi Alfonso! probably on GBPCAD h4 initial profit margin was not enough.
  • #626
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:19am Jul 25, 2013 5:19am
Yes, but speedbumps at the beginning of a new trend works like charm most of the times, so I am willing to risk in those scenarios. Speedbumps are my favourite entries, if taken at the right area (at the beginning of a breakout or with the trend right when it's being formed) it can be tremendously effective.

When they happen in those scenarios what I look at is:

  1. Previous demand has been absorbed
  2. Previous trendline has been solidly broken
  3. Room to previous opposing SD level

If those parameters are met, then I will take the chance! Remember that the perfect entry is not that easy to be found.

Watch the charts, look for dozens or hundreds of speedbumps in this scenario, and you will see what I mean. I didn't take it for the sake of taking it, but because I've not backtested that pattern but forward tested it... so we should be happy to take those chances if they come up.

NOTE: when you reply to an existing post please use the QUOTE button not the Reply to thread, or ur answer will have no reference to the post you are reference to and will be difficult for others to track.

Alfonso



Quoting bobyv87
Hi Alfonso! probably on GBPCAD h4 initial profit margin was not enough.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #627
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:23am Jul 25, 2013 5:23am
The NZDUSD short on the original H4 supply level we had planned for days has been triggered this morning. Let's see what happens with it.

Last night there was news on NZD; interest rates were kept at 2.50% and price rallied to my entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 151 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #628
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:25am Jul 25, 2013 5:25am
Hi Alphonso,
Since this morning I cant use your template with your indicators anymore. Well the problem is that I get the alert box on every tick? I dont know what is going on. I also tries another copy of MT4 platform without success. When I remove ADR_v2 and SupportandResistance indicators, it's stop doing it.

Any clue why?

Thanks again for your help!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #629
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:44am Jul 25, 2013 5:44am
This trade worked out nicely in GBP-USD.



Higher time frame Supply level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #630
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:50am Jul 25, 2013 5:50am
Hi,
I have a question about your entry GPB CAD. Wasn't the trend line broken, so it could disqualified your entry?. And could we paint lower demand zone, that was tested once (arrows), that could disqualified your entry either?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcadh4.png Size: 40 KB
  • #631
  • Jul 25, 2013 6:04am Jul 25, 2013 6:04am
Hi there,

No it was not broken solidly with decision. I need at least 1 full candle with OCHL underneath the TL, that happened in next candle after my entry! The fact that price is underneath the TL does not disqualify it, not even a close. I want the whole candle below, not just part of it.

Alfonso

Quoting sebkor6
Hi, I have a question about your entry GPB CAD. Wasn't the trend line broken, so it could disqualified your entry?. And could we paint lower demand zone, that was tested once (arrows), that could disqualified your entry either? {image} {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #632
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:53am Jul 25, 2013 10:53am
Hi Alfonso,

i want ask about why short entry in supply zone H4 (NZDUSD) not working? this area fresh and original. and i see trendline is broken too.

thanks.


Quoting mfinab
Hi Alphonso, Since this morning I cant use your template with your indicators anymore. Well the problem is that I get the alert box on every tick? I dont know what is going on. I also tries another copy of MT4 platform without success. When I remove ADR_v2 and SupportandResistance indicators, it's stop doing it. Any clue why? Thanks again for your help! {image}
from loser to be hero
  • #633
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:57am Jul 25, 2013 10:57am
Hi!
About NZDUSD, this is what I see... I'm waiting the signal to get short if it does not break up.

Mfinab
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130725-8r0-67kb.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #634
  • Jul 25, 2013 10:58am Jul 25, 2013 10:58am
Hi Alfonso,

sorry i wrong Quoting.

i want ask about why short entry in supply zone H4 (NZDUSD) not working? this area fresh and original. and i see trendline is broken too.

thanks.

Quoting panoramia
The NZDUSD short on the original H4 supply level we had planned for days has been triggered this morning. Let's see what happens with it. Last night there was news on NZD; interest rates were kept at 2.50% and price rallied to my entry. {image}
from loser to be hero
  • #635
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:05am Jul 25, 2013 11:05am
Hi mfinab,

can you tell me this is pair chart what?thanks

Quoting mfinab
Hi! About NZDUSD, this is what I see... I'm waiting the signal to get short if it does not break up. Mfinab {image}
from loser to be hero
  • #636
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:06am Jul 25, 2013 11:06am
Quoting rio cyrano
Hi mfinab, can you tell me this is pair chart what?thanks {quote}
This is NZD USD M15 from the originial Supply area.
  • #637
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:17am Jul 25, 2013 11:17am
Hi Rio!

Why isn't the NZDUSD short working? It's not a loss still. I still am short, protected with a few pips above, but it could be a loss, will know later!

The answer to your question is pretty simple... I don't know, and I can't know... it's the way the market works, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose...I just follow the rules and trade the signal. Will it work always? Nope, it won't. In fact there will be many losses, approx 40% of the times. I just trade the signals, that's all. You can't always be right and you will never know why a valid level is not working.

Fresh and original and it doesn't work? Well, it can happen MANY times, remember this is a probability game, it's all about numbers!

You can drill the area down to M15 and see other levels like Mfinab is doing, but I am not allowed to look at lower timeframes, I am trading bigger timeframes, I trade what I see, I won't look into explanations of why it didn't work in lower timeframes, I just don't know and I don't want to know.

There are many methods to trade, engulf patterns, M15/M5 confirmation on lower timeframes, I am not doing that kind of stuff, it would drive me mad. I concentrate mostly on H4 levels.

Don't start looking at the lower timeframes and posting them over here, that will ruin the purpose of this thread please!
If a trade does not work, it's ok. There will be MANY MANY more. Losses area part of trading, we're not here to win all the time, we're here to make money, that's all!

Alfonso

Quoting rio cyrano
Hi Alfonso, sorry i wrong Quoting. i want ask about why short entry in supply zone H4 (NZDUSD) not working? this area fresh and original. and i see trendline is broken too. thanks. {quote}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #638
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:45am Jul 25, 2013 11:45am
yes i know, nothing strategy 100% win. i just want to get reason why this isn't working? maybe because news a high impact ?. but, i will still hold on to next area supply. because i see tommorow, nothing a high impact news. and next in H4 is a fresh area but not original and D1 area supply touched 1 time.


thank you.

Quoting panoramia
Hi Rio! Why isn't the NZDUSD short working? It's not a loss still. I still am short, protected with a few pips above, but it could be a loss, will know later! The answer to your question is pretty simple... I don't know, and I can't know... it's the way the market works, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose...I just follow the rules and trade the signal. Will it work always? Nope, it won't. In fact there will be many losses, approx 40% of the times. I just trade the signals, that's all. You can't always be right and you will never know why a valid...
from loser to be hero
  • #639
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:54am Jul 25, 2013 11:54am
Quoting panoramia
You are welcome Derek! You have a different Weekly demand area to mine. Mine is painted like that, it's been used up and not making higher highs, nor absorbing previous demand on the WK timeframe. I wouldn't set and forget down there myself, I would wait for confirmation, brand new H4/H1 demand levels to be formed and trade the pullbacks. The level you are pointing out could definetely work, it's at my WK proximal line, not the distal. It's 42 pips wide, I would need to add wiggle room of 5-7 pips so it would be like 50 pips risk, too much for me....
Thanks for the help on that chart. I had a few questions?
1. I am looking at your D1 supply level for AUD/JPY and mine is a little different. could you please show me a snapshot where you painted your daily supply level for the AUD/JPY

2) The chart below is the AUD/USD and i have a speedbump supply level on the 1H chart. The trend was down and and the 1H trend is UP. When looking at the 1H chart and the trend is reversing: making higher highs and lower lows, can i rely on that 1H speedbump supply that i have painted?

3) could you please take the latest snapshot of your D1 and Wk supply and demand spreedsheet and post it. I like you use it to see if my levels are the same as yours.

Really appreciate the help, Thankyou
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 31.png Size: 98 KB
  • #640
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:57am Jul 25, 2013 11:57am
Quoting panoramia
I had a loss yesterday tryng to buy the GBPCAD on a H4 demand as you can see where I have the blue level painted. The highs were taken out and my rules say I have to buy... but it didn't work TL was up as you can see and demand was being respected... but then market dynamics changed... This is the loss: {image} Market dynamics then changed and I took a short. H4 trend changed and previous demand was taken out, there was a brand new H4 supply area that absorbed that demand and the trade was right at that speedbump. SL will be moved to Breakeven after...

Alfonso, another question regarding your short on G/CAD. As you say, the departure was excellent and absorbed the underlying demand area but price bounced straight back up to the departure point on the next candle. Is this where you entered the trade or was it on the next visit (at the red candle with the long upper wick that almost breached the speedbump supply zone)? If you entered at this second point, shouldn't the supply zone have been considered non-fresh, and by your rules not tradable?

Also, when you say you will move your SL to breakeven at 2:1, do you mean when price has hit your zone (say 25 pips wide including spread + wiggle room) and travelled 50 pips in your favour, you then move your SL to the point where you entered the trade? Do you find this trade management has been a net benefit to your results? Is your move to breakeven automated or do you have an alert in place?

Thanks as always.

Huk
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