Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 31 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #601
  • Jul 23, 2013 2:03pm Jul 23, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting panoramia
Today's 2 hours Webinar has already been uploaded to YouTube. We've done a top down analysis on AUDUSD, reviewed past trades and analyzed current market conditions on H4 and H1 areas to learn how lower timeframes, H1 and H1 supply on demand levels have behaved in current Monthly demand area, which ones to take, which ones to skip. We've also introduced how to use trendlines to assess current trend and when to skip them. We didn't have much time to cover other pairs, but I believe I answered all questions asked by attendees. Hopefully all is a bit...
Hi alfonso, thanks for the video. When you were doing the TOP DOWN analysis on the AUD/USD- Price was hitting the MN demand area, BUT it did not hit the DEMAND area on the Weekly chart. IF the Monthly demand area is being touched and the WEEKly is not, do we rely on the MN, OR do we wait to price to hit the WEEKly demand area for the swing trade?
Thanks
  • #602
  • Jul 23, 2013 2:30pm Jul 23, 2013 2:30pm
Hi Kanzler!
Thanks a lot for your message, support and vouch, I appreciate that.

I am always risking 1% on all of my trades, staying out of big news and waiting for the new trend to estrablish after the news or the continuation of it. By doing so, I will be avoiding unnecessary losses.

All the best from Spain!
Alfonso

Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Hey Alfonso, Are you risking 1% or more than that? In any case, I've found the same thing where levels are almost always violated on less than a daily chart during FOMC and NFP. Of the losses this month 3% was solely based on that event trying to hold shorts which worked fine for a few hours and then just got wiped out as the rally continued. As a result that's a part of my trading plan as well, avoid those events at all costs. Anyway was just curious as to how your results are, based on personal experience they seem totally realistic. Best...
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #603
  • Edited 3:06pm Jul 23, 2013 2:36pm | Edited 3:06pm
Hi Derek,

Let me answer your question with a couple of questions, ok?

  1. If price is very close or at Daily/WK/MN demand area? Do you want to sell or to buy?
  2. If price is very close or at Daily/WK/MN supply area? Do you want to sell or to buy?

The D1/WK/MN timeframes are higher timeframes, the higher they are the bigger its reliability... so...

What do we want to do when we are approaching any of these higher timeframes?

  1. Look for original levels of SD and trade them based on set & forget entries, if the score is appropiate
  2. If you find no lower timeframes levels (H1/H4) within those higher timeframe zones, don't trade it. Wait for brand new levels of SD in lower timeframes to confirm there are willing buyers/sellers

We do the same thing on the Monthly as well. We drill it down to H4/H1, are there original levels to lean on for a trade in the direction of the higher timeframe? Yes, there is! Then go for it. Aren't there any original zones? Then wait for brand new areas to prove you there are willing buyers/sellers.

It does not matter the timeframe, if it's a higher timeframe you have to give it much more importance and weight, because higher timeframes hold much better than lower timeframes. The reaction to these higher timeframes normally cause the absorption of lower timeframes areas.

Hope that's clearer.
Alfonso


Quoting Sdprice
{quote} Hi alfonso, thanks for the video. When you were doing the TOP DOWN analysis on the AUD/USD- Price was hitting the MN demand area, BUT it did not hit the DEMAND area on the Weekly chart. IF the Monthly demand area is being touched and the WEEKly is not, do we rely on the MN, OR do we wait to price to hit the WEEKly demand area for the swing trade? Thanks
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #604
  • Jul 23, 2013 2:40pm Jul 23, 2013 2:40pm
Hi, I am the new one here . Thank's for so great materials about sup dem levels. I upload my vision of nzd usd. Please, could you look at those pictures. We are near D1 supply level that imho is crutial. It has been tested once, but would you concider to take short on this H4 fresh supply zone? Or is it too risky because of up trend on h4 timeframe and not broken trendline on the same timeframe?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusddaily.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4.png Size: 52 KB
  • #605
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:28pm Jul 23, 2013 3:28pm
Welcome Sekbor, alias the new one

I do have a short trade on that H4 supply level, strong imbalance, at the D1 supply area, fresh, original, nice profit margin, with the bigger picture. I posted that trade some days ago, that short has been sitting in my charts for quite a long time, let's see if it wants to work! It's all about probabilities after all.

One of the links were I talked about it is this one:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post6833525

Again, welcome!
Alfonso

Quoting sebkor6
Hi, I am the new one here . Thank's for so great materials about sup dem levels. I upload my vision of nzd usd. Please, could you look at those pictures. We are near D1 supply level that imho is crutial. It has been tested once, but would you concider to take short on this H4 fresh supply zone? Or is it too risky because of up trend on h4 timeframe and not broken trendline on the same timeframe? {image} {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #606
  • Edited 3:50pm Jul 23, 2013 3:40pm | Edited 3:50pm
The trade we had planned here yesterday on silver trade hasn't made it to the entry by a few pips, pity! Nice H4 speedbump demand!

There could be a valid new demand area being formed right above IF the 20.57 is taken out.

Quoting panoramia
Looking to go long on Silver (XAGUSD) at a H4 speedbump demand level after D1 supply has been broken. You know I don't trade commodities live, I am taking only demo trades on metals and CFDs, need to practice a bit on those, spot silver/gold leverage is bigger in silver/gold, so taking it slowly. H4 speedbump demand after D1 supply and resistance has been broken, room to reach WK supply. {image} The D1 is making higher highs and new areas of demand. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver_h4.png Size: 68 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #607
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:48am Jul 24, 2013 2:48am
Hi again . Thank's for your answer about nzd usd. In attach files my vision about eur gbp potential sell zone. On d1 we have nice thrust down, that creates fresh supply zone. On h4 I will try to precise my entry point (at the supply zone inside d1). One thing that concernes me is that, if the price shouldn't first brake down this demant zone (arrows), to create new lows. That would confirm new h4 down trend.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpdaily.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbph4.png Size: 42 KB
  • #608
  • Jul 24, 2013 4:07am Jul 24, 2013 4:07am
Hi Sekbor!

That trade was planned on last week's webinar. One of the thread's members asked to analyzed EURGBP short, and we planned that short at the D1 supply area. Nice imbalance at a higher timeframe supply. I am not trading the EURGBP pair because it's very wicky normally, but we talked about that trade.

H4 supply is fresh and original, strong departure, good profit margin, with the bigger picture, little time at the level, it's a nice score and location.

As far as demand being absorbed, didn't it absorb already the upper ones', in fact 2 demand areas.
When will you decide that demand has been absorbed? When price is at the very bottom at opposing D1 demand? (joking here to break the ice). Room to drop through them if the H4 short works.

Quoting sebkor6
Hi again . Thank's for your answer about nzd usd. In attach files my vision about eur gbp potential sell zone. On d1 we have nice thrust down, that creates fresh supply zone. On h4 I will try to precise my entry point (at the supply zone inside d1). One thing that concernes me is that, if the price shouldn't first brake down this demant zone (arrows), to create new lows. That would confirm new h4 down trend. {image} {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 159 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #609
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:15am Jul 24, 2013 5:15am
Thank's for answer. I should read more carefully that You had already done EUR GBP analisys. The hint about 2 demand/supply area being absorbed is just great. Thank's for that.

I attached an NZD USD update. Our original sell area is close, but we have now new h4 supply area that was created a few hours ago.
Would you consider to sell on that new level? Or shoud we wait for the original one?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4.png Size: 38 KB
  • #610
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:19am Jul 24, 2013 5:19am
You couldn't know that analysis had been done, because it was done on the video and no screeshots were posted in the thread.

I still keep my H4 short on NZDUSD, the original one because it's at the D1 supply proximal area. The new one formed is not, those are the rules. Higher odds are at or within higher timeframe areas!

Alfonso

Quoting sebkor6
Thank's for answer. I should read more carefully that You had already done EUR GBP analisys. The hint about 2 demand/supply area being absorbed is just great. Thank's for that. I attached an NZD USD update. Our original sell area is close, but we have now new h4 supply area that was created a few hours ago. Would you consider to sell on that new level? Or shoud we wait for the original one? {image}
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #611
  • Jul 24, 2013 6:25am Jul 24, 2013 6:25am
I had planned a long trade yesterday on COPPER. Those who are following this thread, know that I'm neither trading commodities nor metals with my live account, only demo for now. The basics for S&D apply to all instruments, Copper is not an exception, S&D governs the markets and our lives.

Previous supply (resistance) was absorbed, demand being respected, supply being violated. H4 is up, trendline being respected.
The H4 long was planned respecting the H4 TL as you can see.

See how beautiful SD levels work with the trend on H4. Now all trades work that well, but more often than not
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 108 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #612
  • Jul 24, 2013 1:07pm Jul 24, 2013 1:07pm
Alfonso, when you planning to make a new webinar could you please include pair like: GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF. These pair looks very bad, seems to not be traded. Do you trade these pairs?
  • #613
  • Edited 4:52pm Jul 24, 2013 1:33pm | Edited 4:52pm
Hi Boby!

I trade neither gbpchf nor eurchf, I trade other pound and euro cross pairs that I consider better like gbpaud, gbpcad, euraud, etc. I had to choose and I chose the others.

So if we do some live analysis, I'd prefer to stay with the pairs that I trade right now, around 20.

Alfonso
Quoting bobyv87
Alfonso, when you planning to make a new webinar could you please include pair like: GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF. These pair looks very bad, seems to not be traded. Do you trade these pairs?
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #614
  • Edited 8:50pm Jul 24, 2013 8:09pm | Edited 8:50pm
Quoting panoramia
I had planned a long trade yesterday on COPPER. Those who are following this thread, know that I'm neither trading commodities nor metals with my live account, only demo for now. The basics for S&D apply to all instruments, Copper is not an exception, S&D governs the markets and our lives. Previous supply (resistance) was absorbed, demand being respected, supply being violated. H4 is up, trendline being respected. The H4 long was planned respecting the H4 TL as you can see. See how beautiful SD levels work with the trend on H4. Now all trades work...
Hi alfonso. I am doing top down analysis from MN, WK, D1, ext. However, i am trying to find 4h entry points, however, when i look at the MN chart it is near a Demand, but then when i look at the Wk chart it is at a supply. I am trying to figure out where i am at in the larger timeframe Curve. which one should i lean on for a 4h entry. It seems better to find D1 Supply or Demand and then to pick a 4h trend line and look for fresh levels. When trading the 4h as entry, should i find the D1 S&D levels as my curve and then pick 4H entry. i am getting conflicting views when looking at the MN and WK timeframes? Thanks for the help
  • #615
  • Jul 25, 2013 1:35am Jul 25, 2013 1:35am
Hi Derek,

Rules of thumb:

  1. The higher the timeframe the bigger its reliability. Which timeframe has more weight? A monthly or a weekly? Follow the higher timeframe
  2. If you are near or at a D1/WK/MN don't try to go against it

I normally use the D1 and/or WK timeframes indistinctly to find my H4 entries. Each case is different so you need to make the analysis and decide which one to go.

Alfonso

Quoting Sdprice
{quote} Hi alfonso. I am doing top down analysis from MN, WK, D1, ext. However, i am trying to find 4h entry points, however, when i look at the MN chart it is near a Demand, but then when i look at the Wk chart it is at a supply. I am trying to figure out where i am at in the larger timeframe Curve. which one should i lean on for a 4h entry. It seems better to find D1 Supply or Demand and then to pick a 4h trend line and look for fresh levels. When trading the 4h as entry, should i find the D1 S&D levels as my curve and then pick 4H entry. i am...
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #616
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:15am Jul 25, 2013 2:15am
indicator for zones is not printing/showing zones in my mt4. is there any setting for that.
  • #617
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:22am Jul 25, 2013 2:22am
Planning a USDCAD long on H4 demand area at fresh D1 demand area.

- USDCAD has been respecting supply all the way down and violating demand on the H4 chart, it's clearly on a downtrend.
- The D1 has created a brand new supply speedbump area on the way down and now stopped at an ascending D1 trendline (in white)
- The D1 demand area has a very good strong imbalance
- The WK demand has that D1 demand inside
- The Monthly is also at demand

The H4 demand area is an original and fresh area right at the D1 distal demand within the fresh weekly demand area.

NOTE: sorry if I'm not being very active posting trades on the thread because I'm very busy on a project, building some tools to help me on my trading.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 145 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 126 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 129 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #618
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:26am Jul 25, 2013 2:26am
Hi there!

I don't know what your exact problem is or what indicator you are referring to. Manual or automatic one.

Installation of any of them is simple as you know, if it's not displaying zones there must be something wrong on the installation. I'm just trying to guess because in order for me or others to help you you need to:

- Tell us the name of the indicator you are using, or even attach it
- Attach some kind of screenshot explainin in detail what you are doing and how

Alfonso

Quoting esanjayplaye
indicator for zones is not printing/showing zones in my mt4. is there any setting for that.
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #619
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:48am Jul 25, 2013 2:48am
Quoting panoramia
Hi Derek, Rules of thumb: The higher the timeframe the bigger its reliability. Which timeframe has more weight? A monthly or a weekly? Follow the higher timeframe If you are near or at a D1/WK/MN don't try to go against itI normally use the D1 and/or WK timeframes indistinctly to find my H4 entries. Each case is different so you need to make the analysis and decide which one to go. Alfonso {quote}

Thanks for the reply alfonso,
could you please look at my USD/CHF H1 demand level within the WK and D1 demand level. On the 1H chart the level is fresh and original. Is this a good level, could you please let me know about the quality of this level and my Demand zones? Thank you Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 30.png Size: 108 KB
  • #620
  • Jul 25, 2013 2:48am Jul 25, 2013 2:48am
I am using your template with indicators installed in the experts/indicator folder of MT4
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