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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #8,061
  • Jul 25, 2013 4:42am Jul 25, 2013 4:42am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Yeah, I think I definitely have some of this. I'm not proud of it, but at the same time, I think you need to have a great sense of conviction in order to be a successful trader, and I believe that good trading is more a matter of all the intangibles that can't be taught rather than pure intelligence or the lack thereof. There are definitely things that I'm trying to work on, but change does not come easy my friend. I have had a very, very, very hard time lately with a lot of personal shit happening to me, and I wish I could say it hasn't...

EA's can not work in all environments. What one could possibly do is make an EA that can detect a sideways market environment, or you manually detect sideways market and profit off of it. But no EA is going to profit on both sideways and trending markets. That's a key factor for an EA. If I could code a program I'm sure I could make some profitable ones, but I have no idea how to do it.
  • #8,062
  • Edited 5:21am Jul 25, 2013 5:02am | Edited 5:21am
Quoting Ck87
EA's can not work in all environments. What one could possibly do is make an EA that can detect a sideways market environment, or you manually detect sideways market and profit off of it. But no EA is going to profit on both sideways and trending markets. That's a key factor for an EA. If I could code a program I'm sure I could make some profitable ones, but I have no idea how to do it.
I disagree with this statement 100%. When people say this, it actually kind of gets on my nerves because I believe they are giving in to the norm/stereotype/cliche just because it's easy and it seems to makes sense. But let me tell you something that also makes sense, at least to me... If you have the right collection of the right variables, and they are used at the right time, in combination with the right things, and you put that on auto-pilot, I see that as a winning recipe. And hell, coding is the easier part. The profitability part, now that's a different story. It seems to me that programming an EA is a little bit different from live trading. I'm trying to fill in some of the missing links, but as you can imagine, it's not an easy thing.

When you backtest strategies, things are not always the same as under live conditions either. There's a lot of variables to take into account. I would bet that you could not program a profitable EA. It's harder than most people think, but then again, I apply myself to the strictest of standards. My system makes perfect sense in my head, and usually in live trading too, but that doesn't mean that I always trade my system well, or interpret the signals correctly, or even find the perfect code to actually make the EA the way I see it in my head. Coding can definitely still be a challenge, but to be consistently profitable is exponentially harder.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,063
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:17am Jul 25, 2013 5:17am
this sell off is slightly worrying is it not?
152.4xx level seem to be the area to hone in on
my analysis could be wrong but if it breaks here there could be some more significant downward movement
having trouble attaching charts at the moment so im sorry i cant do that
  • #8,064
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:23am Jul 25, 2013 5:23am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I disagree with this statement 100%. When people say this, it actually kind of gets on my nerves because I believe they are giving in to the norm/stereotype/cliche just because it's easy and it seems to makes sense. But let me tell you something that also makes sense, at least to me... If you have the right collection of the right variables, and they are used at the right time, in combination with the right things, and you put that on auto-pilot, I see that as a winning recipe. And hell, coding is the easier part. The profitability part,...

There's no doubt in my mind I can create a profitable EA if i was a programmer. But if i were to use one, like I just said to you, I would not use it in all market conditions. Any profitable trader knows the first thing they must do is identify the market, are we trending, or are we ranging. That is key. It's the same thing with an EA. But I guess we'll just disagree here.
  • #8,065
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:28am Jul 25, 2013 5:28am
Quoting Ck87
There's no doubt in my mind I can create a profitable EA if i was a programmer. But if i were to use one, like I just said to you, I would not use it in all market conditions. Any profitable trader knows the first thing they must do is identify the market, are we trending, or are we ranging. That is key. It's the same thing with an EA. But I guess we'll just disagree here.
There are indicators for these conditions, but you have to know how to use them. It took me a long time, years of study, and lots of thousands of dollars lost for me to basically realize that I had to go back to the basics and keep things simple. Combine this knowledge with a good understanding of how price moves and charts, and yeah, you get my point.

But I'm happy to end this debate here. Now that GBP data has come out, I have no doubts that the S&P will continue selling off today in just a few hours.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,066
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:29am Jul 25, 2013 5:29am
Hey dudes,

I took off my last couple of longs last night before hitting the sack with a loss based on PA and shorted from there which recovered all of that and more this morning. Taken the shorts off at 152.55 and long now trying to break out of the 15M channel.

Still looking to get into the 154.2 area.

No charts as I'm on the move with my phone.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,067
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:39am Jul 25, 2013 5:39am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} There are indicators for these conditions, but you have to know how to use them. It took me a long time, years of study, and lots of thousands of dollars lost for me to basically realize that I had to go back to the basics and keep things simple. I'm happy to end this debate here. Now that GBP data has come out, I have no doubts that the S&P will continue selling off today in just a few hours.
Dude every one has their own system and strategy of trading, no two trade exactly the same, entry exit points etc. Just gonna pull you up on one thing, you said you went back to basics and are keeping things simple but from your recent posts man your so complicated ! Lol

This ain't a dig at you at all, I would just suggest that if you are going to 'share' you system as you've stated you may on some posts, then you do so otherwise there's no need to mention it. If it works for you and you make a decent percentage monthly on your trading then I, as well as a few others on here bow down to you and wish you continued success. But dude there's no need to play 'a better game' than the rest of the participators here. We're all here to make some money and share our views.

Once again, not a dig at ya, there are many newbies that read and trade off these posts (silly I know) but this thread is and can be very informative for those looking for info. Some of your posts have been contradicting.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,068
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:51am Jul 25, 2013 5:51am
What is happening to gbpjpy???

I sweated like a dog to earn 200€ last three days and now I'm loosing everything because gbpjpy is going so down!!!

But why??? After all I waited for UK GDP and it went ok...so I really can't understand why is it going so down?!?!
  • #8,069
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:56am Jul 25, 2013 5:56am
Quoting apfrezza
What is happening to gbpjpy??? I sweated like a dog to earn 200€ last three days and now I'm loosing everything because gbpjpy is going so down!!! But why??? After all I waited for UK GDP and it went ok...so I really can't understand why is it going so down?!?!
Its over sold by 90% on all timeframes up to the 4HR and now at support on the daily. If this doesn't hold then ill be cutting my longs off also.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,070
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:56am Jul 25, 2013 5:56am
I cannot explain 'why down?' but I've learned that the yen crosses are stubborn and go further than one expects in one direction, and they move 'like the wind.' I've had my own bad experiences with them, recently.
  • #8,071
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:57am Jul 25, 2013 5:57am
It's the return of risk off, USD-JPY basically at that 99.60 level I saw most likely coming. Falls off this trend line and could be a real sharp decline. Risk off!

Unsure as to if USD-JPY will sell off hard but it's looking like that will occur sooner or later. Nikkei really weak.

GBP really weak and doesn't look like it's gonna recover too strongly IMO. Going to sell any retrace.
  • #8,072
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:59am Jul 25, 2013 5:59am
Quoting EatPIPs
{quote} Dude every one has their own system and strategy of trading, no two trade exactly the same, entry exit points etc. Just gonna pull you up on one thing, you said you went back to basics and are keeping things simple but from your recent posts man your so complicated ! Lol This ain't a dig at you at all, I would just suggest that if you are going to 'share' you system as you've stated you may on some posts, then you do so otherwise there's no need to mention it. If it works for you and you make a decent percentage monthly on your trading then...
Thanks EatPips. I like you a lot because you're not afraid to call me out on something and bring up these issues.

I think you're right. I have been contradictory on here a bit and maybe that's why anytime I seem to make any progress, it blows up in my face because I still don't have the discipline to always follow my system as I see it. I think my system is, in fact, simple, but maybe I don't always make it sound so simple when posting here.

I've also been thinking about starting my own FF thread, but I really like this one and all of you guys. I don't want to "take away" anything from this thread or diminish the quality of it in any way, but I am looking to gain insight especially from people, especially all you technical traders. Maybe I will start my own thread and share my system, but I feel like this is my best kept secret and if I were to tell everyone, a lot of you would become a heck of a lot better traders than I am... And all I've ever wanted to do is just make a little bit of money, but unfortunately I'm not there yet. Is that worth sharing my best kept secret for?
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,073
  • Jul 25, 2013 6:01am Jul 25, 2013 6:01am
But why the return of the RISK OFF today??

What happened? After all the news both from Europe and from the UK have been all positive!

I believe that this is only craziness of the FOREX market. I really can't understand why I'm still in...it's no-sense, and I would really like to meet someone who is consistently earning money from it!
  • #8,074
  • Jul 25, 2013 6:03am Jul 25, 2013 6:03am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Thanks EatPips. I like you a lot because you're not afraid to call me out on something and bring up these issues. I think you're right. I have been contradictory on here a bit and maybe that's why anytime I seem to make any progress, it blows up in my face because I still don't have the discipline to always follow my system as I see it. I think my system is, in fact, simple, but maybe I don't always make it sound so simple when posting here. I've also been thinking about starting my own FF thread, but I really like this one and all of you...
Fairplay to you dude. However just remember there is more than enough money for everyone to make on here
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,075
  • Jul 25, 2013 6:06am Jul 25, 2013 6:06am
The why's don't really matter. Price moves. Up and down. Technical selling. Support and Resistance levels. The Nikkei has gone up massively from the lows, UJ has rallied 800 points from low to high. If it were up to me all the yen pairs would fall 10% from here and shake out all the weak players. But it's not up to me

Can't really say risk off is back yet but it's looking like we're going to go through a period of that.

These markets are really difficult to make money in consistently, you have to be really disciplined and know when you're wrong. There's no problem with being wrong, especially if you can identify it, then you can take the other side of the trade

I'm guilty of over trading, over leveraging, and had I not been doing that for a while I'm sure I'd be super successful. But it's never too late to change, so long as you still have capital!
  • #8,076
  • Jul 25, 2013 6:09am Jul 25, 2013 6:09am
Quoting apfrezza
But why the return of the RISK OFF today?? What happened? After all the news both from Europe and from the UK have been all positive! I believe that this is only craziness of the FOREX market. I really can't understand why I'm still in...it's no-sense, and I would really like to meet someone who is consistently earning money from it!
If your not in the green by the end of your monthly statement month after month, you need to rethink your trading plan and risk assessment.

Most GJ traders are greedy (me included) and don't use stop loss especially when hammering a trade with bigger lots and that's when it bites back.

If your not consistently green at the end of every month - your trading strategy is flawed IMO. I make and loose money on here all the time but if I start to loose more one day than another then I change my risk until I'm recovered.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,077
  • Jul 25, 2013 6:13am Jul 25, 2013 6:13am
I think this is the first time I have ever noticed more than 20 traders viewing this thread at once. 40! Wow! Lol
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #8,078
  • Jul 25, 2013 6:17am Jul 25, 2013 6:17am
Of course the real reason for what is happening is the fear of the big news we are waiting this afternoon (Jobless claims in the USA). If the news will be positive then I am sure we will see a very long candle both for UJ, GJ and EJ...alternatively there will be a big spike down and then who knows...

What I can't understand is why selling immediately after the good UK gdp news?
  • #8,079
  • Jul 25, 2013 6:18am Jul 25, 2013 6:18am
Quoting EatPIPs
{quote} If your not in the green by the end of your monthly statement month after month, you need to rethink your trading plan and risk assessment. Most GJ traders are greedy (me included) and don't use stop loss especially when hammering a trade with bigger lots and that's when it bites back. If your not consistently green at the end of every month - your trading strategy is flawed IMO. I make and loose money on here all the time but if I start to loose more one day than another then I change my risk until I'm recovered.

Agree with this, should be making money every month. Sure there will be draw downs and there can be a month or two here and there where you lose, but overall I'd say probably should be winning something like 10/12 months or more.
  • #8,080
  • Jul 25, 2013 6:19am Jul 25, 2013 6:19am
It hasn't even retraced 38% of the whole upmove yet. But it has retraced just over 38% of the move up from 149.8.

I consider it remains bullish until (a) it drops much below about 151.3 (b) it cannot get back much over 154
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