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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #8,021
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:33pm Jul 24, 2013 11:33pm
Quoting Pip Anon
The BoJ can only do so much, IMO. They can keep buying but the JGB risk of going haywire. I think central banks are bitting off a bit more than they can chew.
You nailed it on the head right here. Bond markets are always in control. I don't have the patience (or capital) to follow that stuff though.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,022
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:34pm Jul 24, 2013 11:34pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I would get too fixated as to what's going on with the Yen right now. Quite honestly, I think we may be shifting to a USD driven environment. Even with that aside, don't underestimate what the BoJ might do and the devaluation on the Yen that it could have. Anyway, I've bought some USD/JPY and EUR/JPY... small sizes to start. Staying out of GBP/JPY for now though at least until after the GDP tonight. That being said, I am short GBP/USD and in profit, so I'm going to let that ride through the news at least.
I won't underestimate their willingness, but I do think at the level purchasing increasing it only leads to instability. That can bring consequences, and usually nasty ones.

Hell, we might as well short the yen to nothing but I think it is getting crowded. I believe yen will hill and valley its way down.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,023
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:36pm Jul 24, 2013 11:36pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} You nailed it on the head right here.
What did the market freak out about when the policy minutes came out, I believe, two months ago? No new purchases on ETFs and JREITs. Last month they increased it, but I remember a statement saying that these markets are very thin.


So,what happens when Japan becomes the market? A JP Morgan Whale ordeal? JGBs use to be the most stable gov't bond out there. Not anymore.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,024
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:43pm Jul 24, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting smash1820
Holy mother of god!!! I think I just NAILED this short. This could be my best trade ever in terms of just following what I see on the charts. And I almost added to my short at 153.52 too! Do you want to change your mind now Mpt? {image}
Umm, no. I think it has more to go up. It may yet drop a little, but there's heaps of consolidating going on. Although I'm ever mindful of that potential H&S thing, with the right side top just having made ... but I don't believe it. There's channel resistance up at 154.8/9 that MAY have a effect.
  • #8,025
  • Edited Jul 25, 2013 12:05am Jul 24, 2013 11:46pm | Edited Jul 25, 2013 12:05am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Umm, no. I think it has more to go up. It may yet drop a little, but there's heaps of consolidating going on. Although I'm ever mindful of that potential H&S thing, with the right side top just having made ... but I don't believe it. There's channel resistance up at 154.8/9 that MAY have a effect.
I'm glad I closed my short then at 153.30 and got long there! I guess I am in scalp mode... haha

It's actually pretty amazing how many reallllllllllly smart people are on these forums. I don't have much to disagree with in like the last 4 pages. I think you all should listen to Pip Anon though. Read these posts very carefully because it's the truth.

Pip Anon, what do you think? We see 251 or 120 first on GJ? I have an opinion, but I'd like to hear yours first.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,026
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:51pm Jul 24, 2013 11:51pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I would get too fixated as to what's going on with the Yen right now. Quite honestly, I think we may be shifting to a USD driven environment. Even with that aside, don't underestimate what the BoJ might do and the devaluation on the Yen that it could have. Anyway, I've bought some USD/JPY and EUR/JPY... small sizes to start. Staying out of GBP/JPY for now though at least until after the GDP tonight. That being said, I am short GBP/USD and in profit, so I'm going to let that ride through the news at least.
I am still in a long GBP/JPY trade from last week so I have a free trade on my hands. Hopefully, the news will go in my favor this morning.

It is interesting to see that you have begun to enter non GBP/JPY trades. I have been doing that for awhile now but had to veer away from this thread back then because it seemed way too narrow. I think a lot of the narrow mindedness was due to one individual who seems to be absent at least for the moment.

Anyway, good luck traders and may probability be on your side!
  • #8,027
  • Edited Jul 25, 2013 12:36am Jul 24, 2013 11:58pm | Edited Jul 25, 2013 12:36am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I'm glad I closed my short then at 153.30 and got long there! I guess I am in scalp mode... haha It's actually pretty amazing how many reallllllllllly smart people are on these forums. I don't have much to disagree with in like the last 4 pages. I think you all should listen to Pip Anon though. Read these posts very carefully because it's the truth.
I'm not asking anyone to agree. It's just my view.

But should it get to about 154.8 or so and get stopped, the depth of retrace next could have a huge bearing on where it goes next. A nominal pullback to the 152 area would have it at the top in a few days. A pullback to the 149 area would probably see 159 print in a week or two.
  • #8,028
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:00am Jul 25, 2013 12:00am
UJ looking like it might fall to bottom of trend line around 99.60 area some time tonight. I really don't know though. Should probably sleep and wake up to some opportunities
  • #8,029
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:12am Jul 25, 2013 12:12am
I am scalping with such remarkable precision now it's almost scary.

Been doing some research on a new system that focuses on price action and all I have to say is... my god. Up 22% now in about 6 hours!

Anyway, I'd still like to share my thoughts (and if you're lucky, I'll even share my system)... but this is such a fascinating topic I hate to move away from it. Plus I still need to catch up a little more. I think I can make some sense of everything that's been going on though, so stay tuned for more analysis within 24 hours, I promise!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,030
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:27am Jul 25, 2013 12:27am
Quoting smash1820
I am scalping with such remarkable precision now it's almost scary. Been doing some research on a new system that focuses on price action and all I have to say is... my god. Up 22% now in about 6 hours! Anyway, I'd still like to share my thoughts (and if you're lucky, I'll even share my system)... but this is such a fascinating topic I hate to move away from it. Plus I still need to catch up a little more. I think I can make some sense of everything that's been going on though, so stay tuned for more analysis within 24 hours, I promise!
Hey Smash,

Congrats on your new system and although I would love to share in your excitement Mr. Market has taught me better. Any system should be tested for at least 6 months not 6 hours. Either way, I hope it works out for you but market conditions change drastically from time to time.

I would not get too excited until you have seen consistent results for several months if not years. Especially a scalping system, because most systems are based on some sort of indicator and every indicator that I know of becomes much weaker as you decrease the time frame.

The bigger the time frame the stronger the indicators become.

Just my two cents.
  • #8,031
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:28am Jul 25, 2013 12:28am
Quoting Fx3422271
{quote} Hey Smash, Congrats on your new system and although I would love to share in your excitement Mr. Market has taught me better. Any system should be tested for at least 6 months not 6 hours. Either way, I hope it works out for you but market condition change drastically from time to time. I would not get too excited until you have seen consistent results for several months if not years. Just my two cents.
Could be a matter of random outcomes. Law of averages will quickly shut 22% down sooner or later
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #8,032
  • Edited 12:54am Jul 25, 2013 12:42am | Edited 12:54am
Quoting Pip Anon
Could be a matter of random outcomes. Law of averages will quickly shut 22% down sooner or later
LOL. Especially knowing me. But if I could just stay within 1 standard deviation...

hahah

i am too smart for that *** ahem *** BS

PS: FX, you are very smart for only having 12 posts. That is precisely what I have found, and that is why even more precisely you can see the beauty of a mostly non-indicator, price-based system.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,033
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:45am Jul 25, 2013 12:45am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} LOL. Especially knowing me. But if I could just stay within 1 standard deviation... hahah i am too smart for that *** ahem *** BS
Really?

Bollinger Bands? hahaha
  • #8,034
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:46am Jul 25, 2013 12:46am
Quoting Fx3422271
Really? Bollinger Bands? hahaha
No man, it was a joke. See above. I edited my comments. These posts are going off like every 5 minutes now, probably because of me. Sorry Geppy I don't mean to dominate your thread.

But honestly I feel like I am getting close to the Holy Grail. LOL
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,035
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:51am Jul 25, 2013 12:51am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} No man, it was a joke. See above. I edited my comments. These posts are going off like every 5 minutes now, probably because of me. Sorry Geppy I don't mean to dominate your thread. But honestly I feel like I am getting close to the Holy Grail. LOL.
Well, Geppy will be the first to tell you that there is no holy grail. However, I always like to keep an open mind otherwise you may pass up the opportunity to learn something. Like I said earlier, I hope it works out.

That's what we are all here for, to keep a good attitude and learn from one another.

By the way, what kind of R/R are people using here? I use a 1:2 R/R right now but considering using a 1:3 R/R.
  • #8,036
  • Jul 25, 2013 12:59am Jul 25, 2013 12:59am
Quoting Fx3422271
Well, Geppy will be the first to tell you that there is no holy grail. However, I always like to keep an open mind otherwise you may pass up the opportunity to learn something. Like I said earlier, I hope it works out. That's what we are all here for, to keep a good attitude and learn from one another. By the way, what kind of R/R are people using here? I use a 1:2 R/R right now but considering using a 1:3 R/R.
Thanks for the kind words. I like your attitude and, of course, I hope it works out as well

As far as risk/reward... what? I don't even know what that means!

But I do believe that stop losses are the enemy to all daytraders.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,037
  • Jul 25, 2013 1:13am Jul 25, 2013 1:13am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Thanks for the kind words. I like your attitude and, of course, I hope it works out as well As far as risk/reward... what? I don't even know what that means! But I do believe that stop losses are the enemy to all daytraders.
Well, I am more of a swing trader. I get alerts sent to my cell phone and then take a look at the charts. I calculate the SL and then calculate the difference between the opening price and SL. This is how I determine the limit price. Then, I walk away from my computer and sleep or work-out or whatever else I want to do.
  • #8,038
  • Jul 25, 2013 1:16am Jul 25, 2013 1:16am
If it can clear 153.6 it might get a bit bullish
  • #8,039
  • Jul 25, 2013 1:24am Jul 25, 2013 1:24am
Short GU long UJ
  • #8,040
  • Jul 25, 2013 1:27am Jul 25, 2013 1:27am
Quoting Mpt
If it can clear 153.6 it might get a bit bullish
Just a bit?
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
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