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The similarity system

  • #4,441
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:26am Jul 24, 2013 9:26am
Quoting MarsjeNL
Lets hope the US Home sales will kill the Euro
Why? Let it go its way. I like to think that we got ZZBOT during dissim, so trend shall continue, let's see.
Time matters most
  • #4,442
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:32am Jul 24, 2013 9:32am
Closed e/u for +25 pips, currently positive on this one now.
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  • #4,443
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:34am Jul 24, 2013 9:34am
1.3200 looks like a line in the sand
  • #4,444
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:48am Jul 24, 2013 9:48am
The open for the day Midnight GMT is 1.3222

Open for 9am GMT is 1.32015
Open for 10am GMT is 1.32162

Initial target is for a close lower than 1.3222 for my own definition of a "down day"
Otherwise, a close lower than either 9/10am GMT based on Eurusdd's definition of "Day"

EDIT:
And according to the forecaster.... Dissimilarity won't finish until 9am tomorrow.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,445
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:54am Jul 24, 2013 9:54am
Quoting vlady1974
The open for the day Midnight GMT is 1.3222 Open for 9am GMT is 1.32015 Open for 10am GMT is 1.32162 Initial target is for a close lower than 1.3222 for my own definition of a "down day" Otherwise, a close lower than either 9/10am GMT based on Eurusdd's definition of "Day" EDIT: And according to the forecaster.... Dissimilarity won't finish until 9am tomorrow.
Dissimilarity will not finish until the price keeps making new higher highs, considering the last 300 bars range. Don't forget that the forecast is only accurate if price remains in the range of the last 300 bars high/low. But now we are constantly going for higher highs, so dissimilarity remains...
  • #4,446
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:59am Jul 24, 2013 9:59am
Quoting vlady1974
The open for the day Midnight GMT is 1.3222 Open for 9am GMT is 1.32015 Open for 10am GMT is 1.32162 Initial target is for a close lower than 1.3222 for my own definition of a "down day" Otherwise, a close lower than either 9/10am GMT based on Eurusdd's definition of "Day" EDIT: And according to the forecaster.... Dissimilarity won't finish until 9am tomorrow.
Vlady I think you are wrong. Open 9.00 Gmt is 1.3243 and close is 1.3237. I think your price is the 8 - 9 candle!! Look at this again
  • #4,447
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:21am Jul 24, 2013 10:21am
Quoting lnorbi
{quote} Dissimilarity will not finish until the price keeps making new higher highs, considering the last 300 bars range. Don't forget that the forecast is only accurate if price remains in the range of the last 300 bars high/low. But now we are constantly going for higher highs, so dissimilarity remains...
This is the bit (FxWrangler and PipTheif's work) that I haven't really fully internalised yet. But yes, I see what you mean. So really, it implies our current direction will continue to go higher... until the predicted TIME?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,448
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:26am Jul 24, 2013 10:26am
Quoting mattkirby
{quote} Vlady I think you are wrong. Open 9.00 Gmt is 1.3243 and close is 1.3237. I think your price is the 8 - 9 candle!! Look at this again
Matt!! LOL Dissimilarity!

Let's check... You know what... this is the time of the broker's not "real" time. Shit!
Alright... subsidiary question... is there a way to reset your global time, or reset the data's time based on some kind of offset or global setting in MT4? Mine is 2 hours ahead.... meaning 9am BST is actually 11am 1.32426 matching Matt's 1.3243
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,449
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:35am Jul 24, 2013 10:35am
Here is a little moral booster.I followed that charts and our methods and made 25pips.After that I ignored them and lost 30.I followed the charts and methods again and made 15. Keep at it.
I want more brain power!
  • #4,450
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:35am Jul 24, 2013 10:35am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Matt!! LOL Dissimilarity! Let's check... You know what... this is the time of the broker's not "real" time. Shit! Alright... subsidiary question... is there a way to reset your global time, or reset the data's time based on some kind of offset or global setting in MT4? Mine is 2 hours ahead.... meaning 9am BST is actually 11am 1.32426 matching Matt's 1.3243
I think you can not change the time in MT4, but there are some indis which shows you the different times. I didn't have one but I think it's not hard to find one. Or just set the time in FF to GMT so you always can compare
  • #4,451
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:35am Jul 24, 2013 10:35am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Sure! Yes please. I know work proxy's are pains... but if it can use normal http..... ie. I am currently using teamviewer... which needs a thin client installed on my work PC to remote to the VPS.
I have teamviewer installed on my home computer and use the teamviewer browser (web) login to access my home computer from work.
It has no issues with firewalls.
  • #4,452
  • Edited 10:52am Jul 24, 2013 10:39am | Edited 10:52am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} This is the bit (FxWrangler and PipTheif's work) that I haven't really fully internalised yet. But yes, I see what you mean. So really, it implies our current direction will continue to go higher... until the predicted TIME?
OK, let me try to explain.
Look at the illustration below. On top you have the price. Looking back 300 bars, at each point in time you mark your highest high and lowest low. This will be the basis for your stoch. So if let's say price is 50, LL is 0 and HH is 100, you will have stoch at 50%. This is the first point in the illustration (on the left).
Now, move ahead in time. As you are scrolling the 300-bar window, your HH or LL changes. You can see that in the illustration, the HH changed as price made a new HH in the 300 bars range (this is what's happening now). Now, if you have the SAME absolute price like above (50), it will be a different % in stoch, as it is now measured agains 0 and 120. So it is less % than previously, thus a change in stoch value. THIS CHANGE IS WHAT WE IDENTIFY AS DISSIMILARITY IN THIS SYSTEM!! So it can come from two sources: a LL / HH is falling out on the left side of the 300-bar window as it is moving with time, OR a new LL/HH is created by price (within 300 bars range), which changes the LL/HH of the 300-bar window.

Additionally, we are applying a MA on the stoch below, which introduces a 24 bar lag. So if I have a change now, the effect of that single change will last at least now + 24 bars. If I have another change in let's say 10 bars from now, the effect will be 10 + 24 = 34 bars long.
Currently we are having a continuous effect by price moving higher and higher, thus the "dissim" will keep going, as stoch keeps tuning itself. If we stop doing new HH's, it will still take 24 bars for MA to settle, thus we can predict the length of the dissim.

I hope it sheds some light on the topic.
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  • #4,453
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:44am Jul 24, 2013 10:44am
Quoting crodzilla
{quote} I have teamviewer installed on my home computer and use the teamviewer browser (web) login to access my home computer from work. It has no issues with firewalls.
That's great to know. I will play around with it more to try and achieve this! Many thanks.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,454
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:51am Jul 24, 2013 10:51am
Quoting lnorbi
{quote} OK, let me try to explain. Look at the illustration below. On top you have the price. Looking back 300 bars, at each point in time you mark your highest high and lowest low. This will be the basis for your stoch. So if let's say price is 50, LL is 0 and HH is 100, you will have stoch at 50%. This is the first point in the illustration (on the left). Now, move ahead in time. As you are scrolling the 300-bar window, your HH or LL changes. You can see that in the illustration, the HH changed as price made a new HH in the 300 bars range (this...
OMG. Thank you for the plain english explanation and visual. Completely get it now! To paraphrase:

DS:

  1. bars falling off the tail end of the 300 bar count, changes the calculation of stoch
  2. new bars (consequently, higher highs or lower lows) being added to the front of 300 bars, changes the calculation of stoch

MA:

  1. The 24 period Bollinger Band keeps this "change" in stasis for the 24 period PLUS any other time gap which produces another price change.
  2. If price stops producing variances, the 24 period stabilizes because the variance is consistent across the 24 bars.... dissimilarity ends!

A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,455
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:56am Jul 24, 2013 10:56am
Quoting lnorbi
{quote} OK, let me try to explain. Look at the illustration below. On top you have the price. Looking back 300 bars, at each point in time you mark your highest high and lowest low. This will be the basis for your stoch. So if let's say price is 50, LL is 0 and HH is 100, you will have stoch at 50%. This is the first point in the illustration (on the left). Now, move ahead in time. As you are scrolling the 300-bar window, your HH or LL changes. You can see that in the illustration, the HH changed as price made a new HH in the 300 bars range (this...
My words exactly! LOL. Thanks for the graphs! I wish I could say I've been away enjoying the pips... Finally back at my office today.
Please pull my head out of my ass, I am running out of oxygen...
  • #4,456
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:00am Jul 24, 2013 11:00am
YOU GUYS ARE GOOD!
I want more brain power!
  • #4,457
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:01am Jul 24, 2013 11:01am
Quoting PiPtHiEf
{quote} My words exactly! LOL. Thanks for the graphs! I wish I could say I've been away enjoying the pips... Finally back at my office today.
Did you have a land office day?
  • #4,458
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:03am Jul 24, 2013 11:03am
Quoting lnorbi
{quote} OK, let me try to explain. Look at the illustration below. On top you have the price. Looking back 300 bars, at each point in time you mark your highest high and lowest low. This will be the basis for your stoch. So if let's say price is 50, LL is 0 and HH is 100, you will have stoch at 50%. This is the first point in the illustration (on the left). Now, move ahead in time. As you are scrolling the 300-bar window, your HH or LL changes. You can see that in the illustration, the HH changed as price made a new HH in the 300 bars range (this...
Can i assume then we can say how long price will continue to rise or fall.
I want more brain power!
  • #4,459
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:04am Jul 24, 2013 11:04am
I did! I don't travel very often but this year has been the exception. Making things worst, none of my flights had wifi onboard and were under an hour in duration. By the time the computer was finally on it was time to shut it off for landing. Bummer!
Please pull my head out of my ass, I am running out of oxygen...
  • #4,460
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:04am Jul 24, 2013 11:04am
Quoting lnorbi
THIS CHANGE IS WHAT WE IDENTIFY AS DISSIMILARITY IN THIS SYSTEM!! (...) which introduces a 24 bar lag. So if I have a change now, the effect of that single change will last at least now + 24 bars.
Only if we stick to R-V1. R-V2 with it's EMA's produces these. So far, I couldn't explain
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Even if you fall on your face, you're still moving forward.
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