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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #7,941
  • Edited 7:40pm Jul 23, 2013 7:20pm | Edited 7:40pm
Since a picture is sometimes worth a thousand words, here's 2000 words to show the dilemma we are in

... And both trendlines are strong

... And I see support from 152.90 - 152.94 (just my opinion)

... The low on the 15M chart was definitely a shakeout (if it wasn't, then I don't know what is!), so that should be ignored

We all need to keep in mind that the overall trend in the highest TF possible is still bullish. EatPips said it best... go back a few posts ago and read his response. If you look at this giant range within the context of a 4H chart, all you see is a bunch of consolidation... and when this consolidation period is over, then it will be time for the trend to resume. Perhaps that is the simplest explanation I can give as to why I am still bullish (and I think Geppy is too).

Consolidation/support/demand/ranging/basing around the 153 level... call it what you will... but we will be back with the trend soon and that means on to making new highs.
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  • #7,942
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:00pm Jul 23, 2013 8:00pm
The more confluence you have with your signals, the more confident you can be in the trade.
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  • #7,943
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:31pm Jul 23, 2013 8:31pm
It's incredible how nearly everyone in this thread over thinks everything lol
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  • #7,944
  • Jul 23, 2013 8:51pm Jul 23, 2013 8:51pm
Quoting Geppy
It's incredible how nearly everyone in this thread over thinks everything lol
You could probably throw me onto that list, lol. Sometimes things are not so cut and dry, like here in fact. We were actually battling three different trend lines all at the same time, so I could certainly see how that could be difficult and confusing. I think now it's just a question of which side has more money? The short-term bears, or the long-term bulls? It really is an interesting battle here. I think that if the shorts do win, it will not be for long.
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  • #7,945
  • Jul 23, 2013 9:22pm Jul 23, 2013 9:22pm
Shorts... I think it is almost time! I may have said that it will not be for long, but that's not to say that it won't be big.

Who's on board with me?! Feel free to jump in...! I've entered a starter position, but I'll give it another hour or so to add on (or get completely out).
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  • #7,946
  • Jul 23, 2013 9:33pm Jul 23, 2013 9:33pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} You could probably throw me onto that list, lol. Sometimes things are not so cut and dry, like here in fact. We were actually battling three different trend lines all at the same time, so I could certainly see how that could be difficult and confusing. I think now it's just a question of which side has more money? The short-term bears, or the long-term bulls? It really is an interesting battle here. I think that if the shorts do win, it will not be for long.
I guess I just have a hard time seeing any logic to be short. But hey, what do I know...
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  • #7,947
  • Edited 10:00pm Jul 23, 2013 9:45pm | Edited 10:00pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I guess I just have a hard time seeing any logic to be short. But hey, what do I know...
I'm not positive either, but being short now is the best guess that I have. They pushed this up to about 153.20 and that's the highest price we've seen recently, so it could in fact be the place to get short amongst all this ugly and chaotic price action.

But the main reason why I'm short now is the 1 Hour chart. It's been the main component of all of these moves we've seen today, and now it's starting to turn to the downside... Let's just say, when the winds align with the tide, you don't want to go against it. I'm not sure if that was the best analogy, but that's close to the best answer I have.

Plus, I really am trying hard to follow my system and stay disciplined, and that means even if I may not agree with the call, you still gotta do what your system says. I just hope I'm interpreting this signal right lol
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  • #7,948
  • Jul 23, 2013 10:35pm Jul 23, 2013 10:35pm
At the current moment I don't see a reason to be long GJ. Not necessarily because I don't see it going up, but because if you see the Yen weakening, it will most probably go hand in hand with dollar strength, which means GBP will weaken as well. Therefore you would be better off going long UJ instead of GJ. And I can definitely see a case for UJ and GJ going higher. UJ has yet to fall through that 99.33 level, and has tried multiple times. Market still undecided and might want to retest 100.5-101.5 first while dollar pairs get hit.


Is that not logical either Geppy?
  • #7,949
  • Jul 23, 2013 10:56pm Jul 23, 2013 10:56pm
Quoting Ck87
At the current moment I don't see a reason to be long GJ. Not necessarily because I don't see it going up, but because if you see the Yen weakening, it will most probably go hand in hand with dollar strength, which means GBP will weaken as well. Therefore you would be better off going long UJ instead of GJ. And I can definitely see a case for UJ and GJ going higher. UJ has yet to fall through that 99.33 level, and has tried multiple times. Market still undecided and might want to retest 100.5-101.5 first while dollar pairs get hit. Is that not logical...
Looks like he left for a while. I think that is logical, but I don't get why you say you don't see a reason to be long GJ, but you can definitely see a case for UJ and GJ going higher? That is contradictory, is it not?

Anyway, I am curious how YOU would trade GJ from here? Not UJ or GU but GJ. I am currently short and a little confused. I was counting on the 1H chart as my trigger, but I actually shorted a little too early, and now the 1H is going bearish but the 4H is going bullish! Help me out bro!

Also, you're a pro poker player!??! That's badass man! Have I seen you on TV before? I played A LOT of poker back in college when it was not illegal in the US (internet poker) and if I was only half as good of a trader as I was poker player then I wouldn't even need to be on these forums... haha. At least you're allowed to play online over there in Mexico... I'm jealous!
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  • #7,950
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:01pm Jul 23, 2013 11:01pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Looks like he left for a while. I think that is logical, but I don't get why you say you don't see a reason to be long GJ, but you can definitely see a case for UJ and GJ going higher? That is contradictory, is it not? Anyway, I am curious how YOU would trade GJ from here? Not UJ or GU but GJ. I am currently short. Also, you're a pro poker player!??! That's badass man! Have I seen you on TV before? I played A LOT of poker back in college when it was not illegal in the US (internet poker) and if I was only half as good of a trader as I was...


I'm really confused right now to be honest. I can't really have a position on right now with confidence. I wish I was as smart as anyone that knows which direction any pair is going to head right now. I think the best course of action right now is to make trades for 50-100 pip gains using whatever technical system you have to go with trending momentum.

So far like we talked about the other night UJ 100 level has definitely become resistance for now.

Yes, been a pro poker player for around 10 years now. Moved to mexico months after they made it illegal in US. Poker is nothing compared to trading though. Hope to quit poker soon enough. Once I work on my discipline and finally become a true sniper trader !

PS: You seem to be making the same mistake I've made and continue to make, which is over trading. Sometimes there is no trade and it's best to take a step back and be patient. There's always opportunities in these markets and the best thing to do most of the time is NOTHING. I know you're a day trader and I do a lot of intraday trades myself, but personally I know it's easier to be patient and wait for the big move trades. Being glued to the screen all night sucks.
  • #7,951
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:09pm Jul 23, 2013 11:09pm
Quoting Ck87
At the current moment I don't see a reason to be long GJ. Not necessarily because I don't see it going up, but because if you see the Yen weakening, it will most probably go hand in hand with dollar strength, which means GBP will weaken as well. Therefore you would be better off going long UJ instead of GJ. And I can definitely see a case for UJ and GJ going higher. UJ has yet to fall through that 99.33 level, and has tried multiple times. Market still undecided and might want to retest 100.5-101.5 first while dollar pairs get hit. Is that not logical...
What are you, a 4-year-old looking for daddy's approval?

I'm holding twice as much USD/JPY than GBP/JPY... answer enough for ya?
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  • #7,952
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:11pm Jul 23, 2013 11:11pm
I'm 5 years old and I sense an attitude in you that I don't like, that's all. Wish you the best though
  • #7,953
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:18pm Jul 23, 2013 11:18pm
Quoting Ck87
I'm 5 years old and I sense an attitude in you that I don't like, that's all. Wish you the best though
I'm rough around the edges.
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  • #7,954
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:20pm Jul 23, 2013 11:20pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} What are you, a 4-year-old looking for daddy's approval? I'm holding twice as much USD/JPY than GBP/JPY... answer enough for ya?
Wow, that's a shocker!
  • #7,955
  • Edited 11:44pm Jul 23, 2013 11:33pm | Edited 11:44pm
LOL guys, I'm sure there are plenty of dumb things to bash here on these forums but we don't need to go doing it to each other... heck, bash me for all I care. At least I deserve it

Quoting Ck87
PS: You seem to be making the same mistake I've made and continue to make, which is over trading. Sometimes there is no trade and it's best to take a step back and be patient. There's always opportunities in these markets and the best thing to do most of the time is NOTHING. I know you're a day trader and I do a lot of intraday trades myself, but personally I know it's easier to be patient and wait for the big move trades. Being glued to the screen all night sucks.
And yes, this is absolutely true. I over trade and over leverage myself frequently, and I know I shouldn't be doing this, but it's still hard for me to control those impulses. It's like in the early stages of a poker tournament -- you want to be active and aggressive and just have fun, but you actually need to do the opposite... be very selective and conservative and only play the strongest hands. Good analogy, huh? I figured you'd like that one. But the funny thing is I'm great at this when it comes to poker, but terrible at it when it comes to trading! Ugh... discipline, discipline, discipline!
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  • #7,956
  • Jul 24, 2013 12:07am Jul 24, 2013 12:07am
Dang. I made 3.5 pips on that short. Totally LAME!!! Maybe I will just go to bed now... and pray that I see mad pips in the morning

Oh, I forgot to tell you all... Praying is an essential part of my strategy too.
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  • #7,957
  • Jul 24, 2013 1:03am Jul 24, 2013 1:03am
week open 153.34

last week high 153.65

i will prefer to short at week open and long only above last week high

if last week high remains intact i am short biased.

end of story
  • #7,958
  • Jul 24, 2013 1:23am Jul 24, 2013 1:23am
The reason I am looking to short near week open is that this level also lines up with a major 4 hour resistance level

just waiting for trend change to the downside to take the entry
  • #7,959
  • Jul 24, 2013 1:25am Jul 24, 2013 1:25am
For what it's worth, I think that GJ is still bullish, albeit in a correction. And UJ and GU are both bearish. Meaning that GJ will still achieve its probable goals of 154x and about 156, but on pullbacks from both of those pairs. It can do that by simply ranging in this area for a while longer or by a decent retrace to about 152 (38% retracement of the move up)
  • #7,960
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:31am Jul 24, 2013 2:31am
Shouldn't be long now...

Bed time for me, later kids!
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