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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #126,901
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:04am Jul 23, 2013 11:04am
Quoting aioico
Hi everyone!! I'm kinda new on this thread and i've much to learn....i think this is the right place I haven't read the whole thread yet ...it's gonna take a long time!! Anyway Mike, you're great man doing a great job. These are my first two charts....hope they're not so bad!!
Hi aioico. I want to show what I see on this pair.
Look at the daily chart. Price found resistance in PPZ, RN 1.54 and MA 150.
Sorry for my English. Google translator
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It's only after we've lost everything that we're free to do anything.
  • #126,902
  • Jul 23, 2013 1:09pm Jul 23, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting aioico
Hi everyone!! I'm kinda new on this thread and i've much to learn....i think this is the right place I haven't read the whole thread yet ...it's gonna take a long time!! Anyway Mike, you're great man doing a great job. These are my first two charts....hope they're not so bad!!
Hi aioico,
first of all welcome to the thread, you´re right this is great place to start your trading education.

Here are my thoughts on your trades.
GBPUSD

The pin bar you played is really small and is at swing high, ideally we want to play them at swing lows and we want bigger ones. So in this case you played it as a continuation bar and that is more tricky, your FTA (first trouble area) are highs on the left (I marked them with yellow), price might break through them but it is also possible that it will just bounce down. You trade management here will be pretty difficult.

GBPAUD

In this case i think we are right now in super tight box (marked with yellow) that is part of bigger consolidation (marked with green), so your FTA was really close (top of the yellow box), the pin was again really small and in traffic. I would wait here how for some kind of break out out of the green box if everything will look ok. Trading in consolidation is a little more difficult beacuse there is considerable less space so minor PPZs have more strength and trade management is more difficult (you have to be quick with moving your SL to BE or taking profit).

By the way both pairs contain GBP, so there´s some correlation between them.

Hope this helps
Mav
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  • #126,903
  • Jul 23, 2013 1:40pm Jul 23, 2013 1:40pm
Thanks to you all, guys. (i don't know how to quote you together, so i decided to quote none of you for equality )

Fortunately i'm still demo trading.

As for GBPAUD i closed the trade manually, because i recognized my mistake;

GBPUSD is still on 'cause i think it's a swing low as for TF H4; anyway i'll expect the close of the daily candle (GMT) and decide what to do.

Thanks again, see you
  • #126,904
  • Jul 23, 2013 2:38pm Jul 23, 2013 2:38pm
Quoting aioico
GBPUSD is still on 'cause i think it's a swing low as for TF H4
Hi Aioico!

I think there may be some confusion as to what a swing low is. By definition, the pin bar you played cannot be a swing low on the 4H chart. That is more accurately termed a pull back or a "dip" in the prevailing up trend. For all we know, that point could even become the highest point in the current up swing thereby becoming a localized swing high!

For a better look at how it should look, look at the one that started the current up trend around July 9th (even that one isn't AMAZING, but much better). That is a swing low - the lowest point over a given length of time relevant to the chart being analyzed.

Each "dip" is not a swing low, they're just pull backs most often associated with slight pauses in the prevailing trend. Those can still give favorable entries for shorter-term positions but just be careful thinking of them as swing highs/lows. They don't have near the strength/power of a good pin bar at a real swing high/low. They can be great for scalping but require much heavier trade management and the ACCEPTANCE of the risk factor up front.
  • #126,905
  • Jul 23, 2013 2:42pm Jul 23, 2013 2:42pm
currently on breakeven
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  • #126,906
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:14pm Jul 23, 2013 3:14pm
ba is about to breakt the resistance at about 108.20 usd.
stock is in a beautiful uptrend and will rise further when dj supports.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #126,907
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:53pm Jul 23, 2013 3:53pm
Guys (esp Mike),

I've been trying to add trendline breakouts to my arsenal.

I had been watching this (CHFJPY). The break happened, I watched it, then there was the retest today which I watched and I had no idea how to get in on it. I think Mike likes to drop down timeframes to look for PA off the retest of the TL, but unfortunately it's difficult for me to trade anything under the daily.

So my question basically is, is something like this tradeable and how would you get in on the Daily timeframe? Would a straight touch trade off the retest be valid? Break of the breakout bar?

Many Thanks!
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  • #126,908
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:44pm Jul 23, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting pip_la
I had been watching this (CHFJPY). The break happened, I watched it, then there was the retest today... {image}
Hi pip_la!

Take my opinion with a grain of salt, but this looks a lot like a 3.5 month range to me. Price hit the major resistance at 107 (HUGE round number) which is right near the top of the box's resistance. The zone around the box top and 107 has been rejected many times. If that resistance holds (as it has for 2-3 days now), it's likely just another downside run inside consolidation. In order for ME to buy, I'd much rather see it break over 107 and hold support. At that time I'd feel much more comfortable buying above the break.

Again, it's just an opinion and the market doesn't respect opinions. If you DO decide to buy, just please make sure to manage it SUPER closely as your first trouble area (and it's a major one) is only 30 pips or so, from box top to 107. If it breaks that, there's nothing keeping it from running other than the (all time?) high from August 2011 which was the previous rejection of 107.
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  • #126,909
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:59pm Jul 23, 2013 4:59pm
Quoting aioico
Hi everyone!! I'm kinda new on this thread and i've much to learn....i think this is the right place I haven't read the whole thread yet ...it's gonna take a long time!! Anyway Mike, you're great man doing a great job. These are my first two charts....hope they're not so bad!! {image} {image}
Hey Aioico

Welcome to the thread!

You got some great responses! Let us know if you have more questions

Mike
  • #126,910
  • Jul 23, 2013 5:01pm Jul 23, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting pip_la
Guys (esp Mike), I've been trying to add trendline breakouts to my arsenal. I had been watching this (CHFJPY). The break happened, I watched it, then there was the retest today which I watched and I had no idea how to get in on it. I think Mike likes to drop down timeframes to look for PA off the retest of the TL, but unfortunately it's difficult for me to trade anything under the daily. So my question basically is, is something like this tradeable and how would you get in on the Daily timeframe? Would a straight touch trade off the retest be valid?...
Hey Pip

I'd actually say the retest hasn't happened yet and is a bit lower. It's still valid to look for PA but what would keep me away personally is because the angle of the TL was not very steep and price came close to the previous swing high that the pattern sort of already played out.

You CAN play a pure touch of these areas but it's not something I do much. I just really love PA to guide the way and would prefer to wait for a good PA bar. So maybe a nice big pin on the daily would nice running through the pattern and BRN.

Hope this helps
Mike
  • #126,911
  • Jul 23, 2013 5:25pm Jul 23, 2013 5:25pm
It does help. Thanks yet again!
  • #126,912
  • Jul 23, 2013 7:15pm Jul 23, 2013 7:15pm
Quoting LiFZ
{quote} Hi pip_la! Take my opinion with a grain of salt, but this looks a lot like a 3.5 month range to me. Price hit the major resistance at 107 (HUGE round number) which is right near the top of the box's resistance. The zone around the box top and 107 has been rejected many times. If that resistance holds (as it has for 2-3 days now), it's likely just another downside run inside consolidation. In order for ME to buy, I'd much rather see it break over 107 and hold support. At that time I'd feel much more comfortable buying above the break. Again,...
great chart LifZ!
  • #126,913
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:11pm Jul 23, 2013 11:11pm
since the FX markets are pretty slow

here is a homework chart I sent out to the PF

Lets do it here too

See if you can find the key components to watch as a technical trader. The pieces encompass a large range of concepts we use here But they also help one formulate potential trade plans(depending on style)

Here is the blank chart what do you see?
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  • #126,914
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:57pm Jul 23, 2013 11:57pm
Quoting mbqb11
since the FX markets are pretty slow here is a homework chart I sent out to the PF Lets do it here too See if you can find the key components to watch as a technical trader. The pieces encompass a large range of concepts we use here But they also help one formulate potential trade plans(depending on style) Here is the blank chart what do you see? {image}
Fibo & Resistance

and monthly chart 50 fibo
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  • #126,915
  • Jul 24, 2013 12:06am Jul 24, 2013 12:06am
Quoting ForexTeam
{quote} Fibo & Resistance and monthly chart 50 fibo {image} {image}
glad to see someone jump in

I often think people are fearful of showing their opinion (believe me I know since my charts are under such scrutiny)

I'll post my chart tomorrow and again it doesn't mean I am right or anyone is wrong or vice versa. Just my perspective


Thanks
Mike
  • #126,916
  • Jul 24, 2013 12:09am Jul 24, 2013 12:09am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} glad to see someone jump in I often think people are fearful of showing their opinion (believe me I know since my charts are under such scrutiny) I'll post my chart tomorrow and again it doesn't mean I am right or anyone is wrong or vice versa. Just my perspective Thanks Mike
Thank you for answer, I like to see opendmind people. I'm looking to trade only technical confluence.
  • #126,917
  • Jul 24, 2013 1:10am Jul 24, 2013 1:10am
Quoting mbqb11
since the FX markets are pretty slow here is a homework chart I sent out to the PF Lets do it here too See if you can find the key components to watch as a technical trader. The pieces encompass a large range of concepts we use here But they also help one formulate potential trade plans(depending on style) Here is the blank chart what do you see? {image}
hey mike, this my opinion, we have some lines that need to be break first... Can I ask you what programme do you use to capture and modify your pictures? thx

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  • #126,918
  • Edited 3:26am Jul 24, 2013 2:11am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting mbqb11
since the FX markets are pretty slow here is a homework chart I sent out to the PF Lets do it here too See if you can find the key components to watch as a technical trader. The pieces encompass a large range of concepts we use here But they also help one formulate potential trade plans(depending on style) Here is the blank chart what do you see? {image}
Hi, here is what I see.

EURJPY was in uptrend for a very long time, right now we´re consolidating, in my opinion this consolidation can be drawn in two ways, either we can draw it as a pure box (two green lines) or we can use a trend line and form a wedge. I like more wedge. Next thing I see is, that we have divergence here, I marked this also in my chart. So for me the best situation would be here break down through up trend line and 130 BRN, we can then hide our SL behind these. The next important area to watch would be 125 BRN.

I marked here also second possibilityof break up but 135 is pretty close so we would be trading right in to it and since we have here that divergence I´m more inclined for break down, but I´m staying open minded for both scenarios.

Looking forward to see your chart

Mav
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  • #126,919
  • Edited 3:46am Jul 24, 2013 3:31am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting aserbfx
ba is about to breakt the resistance at about 108.20 usd. stock is in a beautiful uptrend and will rise further when dj supports. {image}
Hi Aserb,

Damn, I was looking at the same chart from a weekly perspective, waiting either for a 108 BO or a bearish PA that would close below the TL and supported by the MACD divergence...
thanks for your tip regarding its correlation with DJ, it makes perfect sense !

Here are a few thoughts on the way I would manage the trade - totally open for criticism, as I only have very little experience in BO trades, especially in the stocks market.
Entry at 108.50 (higher than the last highest W1 candle: 108.12); SL by 104.50 (ie at previous minor S/R / RN level).
I also like to have a tighter mental stop loss at which I would consider closing the position for a minor loss. Here, I would consider that if this week's low (106.4, which is also a gap on D1) is broken, then 108 is very likely to not hold as a support, and I would eventually get out of the trade for a reduced loss (approx. 50% of my initial exposure).
Your correlation of US stocks with DJ is very appealing, and I guess I would also monitor DJI, particularly if it moves below 15.500.
TP1 would be at 0.5R ie 110.50, TP2 at 1R (112.5), and the 3rd position's SL trailed according to S/R and/or bearish PA appearance.

Hope this makes sense, let's see how it develops
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Slow & steady
  • #126,920
  • Jul 24, 2013 3:35am Jul 24, 2013 3:35am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} yep watching this one too G, i'll be watching your blue TL on the daily chart. We are now above that small box you showed so that could be a resistance turned into support but I like to look for trades at the more major area like your Blue TL Best Mike
Hi Mike. If we blendle the bar from Monday with previous 2 days there is a BUOB. Can we use this BUOB as a preemptive bar for a breakout of that blue TL from silver?

And another question, if we watch 1 hr chart or 4hr chart should we use the patterns and PPZ from 1hr or 4hr, or the ones from daily charts?
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