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The similarity system

  • #4,261
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:20am Jul 23, 2013 11:20am
Quoting jackprobe
I think EU will go down now ..... at M15, symphonie extreme indi gives down signal & StochDiffzone 2.3 similarity was started .... it will swing at 1.32038 as axis ...
Interesting - 3206 previously resistance, now become support.
  • #4,262
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:27am Jul 23, 2013 11:27am
Well folks... the 15M timeframe had it. If you broke the rules on that (my hand is up) then you would have lost.
More lessons learned (ie. with real money). The day's not over yet, but I doubt if she'll see the day out below 3200.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,263
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:31am Jul 23, 2013 11:31am
Quoting vlady1974
Well folks... the 15M timeframe had it. If you broke the rules on that (my hand is up) then you would have lost. More lessons learned (ie. with real money). The day's not over yet, but I doubt if she'll see the day out below 3200.
VLADY - can you post your chart?
  • #4,264
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:39am Jul 23, 2013 11:39am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Oghix
{quote} This is what eurusdd said: " The downtrend is established so just sell retraces. Don't let her leave you UP there!!!". Now tell me where do you see established downtrend? All i can see is uptrend being built on all timeframes. Yes of course price will go down one day... I wonder when. Do you believe that dissimilarity based on an indicator will tell you that? You should come back to basic of trading. Indicators tell you what happend no matter what similarity or disimilarity you get and they DO NOT tell you what is going to happen in the...

What you are saying is with hindsight. If you saw different why did you not make a call at the time?

I am not naïve to blindly follow someone but if I see certain things then my trust grows. I am wondering what went on with this call this afternoon but I made my own judgement. Trading in demo until I have enough confidence in this system. It is afternoons like this that make me question what is going on and make me more cautious.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #4,265
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:39am Jul 23, 2013 11:39am
hmm, does your 15M chart looks like this? strange ZZ, or?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m15-excel-markets.png Size: 76 KB
  • #4,266
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:43am Jul 23, 2013 11:43am
Quoting almo
{quote} VLADY - can you post your chart?
The issue of what designates a proper piercing of Bollinger Bands rears its ugly head. Does it include price Close or not? Would you rather leave it up to an indicator or work it out yourself?

The 1H poses some interesting questions, at least for me.

The 15M shows that the fake Top didn't couldn't have been a ZZTop because there was no prior ZZBottom... I posted yesterday that I found that weird and I didn't take the trade.... well that has cost me. By interpreting the price being out of BB as a legitimate Top... the analysis then made the ZZBottom coming in a bit early (ie. Eurusdd's prediction of lower than 3162) seem valid... ie. I dismissed the opportunity to trade as I thought it was counter-trend.

Someone rightly reminded us to view higher timeframes. I've been so blindsided by the methods going from 15M to 5M to 1M that I've forgotten what I always do and that is to look from the top down.... Monthly/Weekly/Daily/4H/1H/15M/5M/1M.... perhaps its because some timeframes have less % of accuracy.... I dunno.

I had 3 winners, 1 loser and potentially some losers still (2) so we shall see how to evaluate today. Here's the chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.PNG Size: 177 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,267
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:47am Jul 23, 2013 11:47am
Quoting Forex Lion
hmm, does your 15M chart looks like this? strange ZZ, or? {image}
Can you see why it did that? I alluded to it in my chart.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,268
  • Edited 12:39pm Jul 23, 2013 11:50am | Edited 12:39pm
Quoting vlady1974
Well folks... the 15M timeframe had it. If you broke the rules on that (my hand is up) then you would have lost. More lessons learned (ie. with real money). The day's not over yet, but I doubt if she'll see the day out below 3200.
I kept away from any shorts today for reasons given in my posts to do with higher time frames. This has made me realise I need to get the indicator values correct of these higher time frames in order to trust them.

I had used this advice from an early post for lower time frames (sorry, forgot whose)



Stoch: 75/1/1 (1h), 150/1/1 (30m), 300/1/1 (15m), 900/1/1 (5m), 4500/1/1 (1m)
BB and ZZ: .............24 (15m), 72 (5m), 360 (1m)


Thats fine as far as it goes but then what are the larger time frame settings if you follow this logic as they quickly become too small? Besides I know Eurusdd said that the 15min settings could be used on the 4 hr which turns turns this logic on its head anyway. I would like to fill in some gaps and put this excel chart right if anyone can help
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls similarity.xls   14 KB | 522 downloads
  • #4,269
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:52am Jul 23, 2013 11:52am
In my head... Eurusdd's prediction is still valid price wise - maybe he got his timing calculations wrong (which is a separate issue).

We did return to 3170-80 and then it's shot back up. Fake move? Not sure about fake... but I can tell from the wicks that she may not last long before a down move is warranted. We shall see... New York at lunch. Let's see what happens.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,270
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:55am Jul 23, 2013 11:55am
Lower Bollinger Band on 15M just turned up.... consolidation started.... then next swing due for a ZZBottom (not necessarily today).
Anyone see a Dis starting?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,271
  • Jul 23, 2013 12:00pm Jul 23, 2013 12:00pm
Quoting Oghix
{quote} This is what eurusdd said: " The downtrend is established so just sell retraces. Don't let her leave you UP there!!!". Now tell me where do you see established downtrend? All i can see is uptrend being built on all timeframes. Yes of course price will go down one day... I wonder when. Do you believe that dissimilarity based on an indicator will tell you that? You should come back to basic of trading. Indicators tell you what happend no matter what similarity or disimilarity you get and they DO NOT tell you what is going to happen in the...
There are holes. Did you play closing price gaps? It works, when it appears. EURUSD also provided his sentiment with a shadow of the doubt... I don't remember the word, but there was nothing about certainit. I was worride by this, but I'm looking how that develops since there are many factors and even 97% of rightness must sometimes mean failure. Probability, the kid, the coin, the gun and the death...
Time matters most
  • #4,272
  • Jul 23, 2013 12:02pm Jul 23, 2013 12:02pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Can you see why it did that? I alluded to it in my chart.
nice face on your chart

on my chart the current zz top is outside bb and the ema1 has been outside too. stoch was outside too.
This should be a regular zz top...

by the way...today I opened a live-account
  • #4,273
  • Jul 23, 2013 12:03pm Jul 23, 2013 12:03pm
Quoting vlady1974
Lower Bollinger Band on 15M just turned up.... consolidation started.... then next swing due for a ZZBottom (not necessarily today). Anyone see a Dis starting?
yes, look at my chart
  • #4,274
  • Jul 23, 2013 12:03pm Jul 23, 2013 12:03pm
Quoting Forex Lion
hmm, does your 15M chart looks like this? strange ZZ, or? {image}
So we will see technical correction then - guessing
Time matters most
  • #4,275
  • Jul 23, 2013 12:07pm Jul 23, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} The issue of what designates a proper piercing of Bollinger Bands rears its ugly head. Does it include price Close or not? Would you rather leave it up to an indicator or work it out yourself? The 1H poses some interesting questions, at least for me. The 15M shows that the fake Top didn't couldn't have been a ZZTop because there was no prior ZZBottom... I posted yesterday that I found that weird and I didn't take the trade.... well that has cost me. By interpreting the price being out of BB as a legitimate Top... the analysis then made the...

Thanks Vlady - appreciate you sharing
  • #4,276
  • Edited 12:35pm Jul 23, 2013 12:08pm | Edited 12:35pm
Quoting Neio
{quote} What you are saying is with hindsight. If you saw different why did you not make a call at the time? I am not naïve to blindly follow someone but if I see certain things then my trust grows. I am wondering what went on with this call this afternoon but I made my own judgement. Trading in demo until I have enough confidence in this system. It is afternoons like this that make me question what is going on and make me more cautious.

Sorry my friend but don't you see that uptrend is being built? What call did you want? I thought that everybody can see that. Is it so hard to see that? I think you should remove your all indicators and diss. boxes from you chart and look on the pure price.I bet that most of you stuck in short or sl was hit becasuse your attention were absorbed by indicators and "amazing" diss. boxes and you didn't see so obvious thing like support an resistance levels.
  • #4,277
  • Jul 23, 2013 12:11pm Jul 23, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting taypot
{quote} I kept away from any shorts today for reasons given in my posts to do with higher time frames. This has made me realise I need to get the indicator values correct of these higher time frames in order to trust them. I had used this advice from an early post for lower time frames (sorry, forgot whose) Stoch: 75/1/1 (1h), 150/1/1 (30m), 300/1/1 (15m), 900/1/1 (5m), 4500/1/1 (1m) BB and ZZ: .............24 (15m), 72 (5m), 360 (1m) Thats fine as far as it goes but then what are the larger time frame settings if you follow this logic as they quickly...
Hey Taypot... I took your values and added some formuls... the 10min is the one that varies.
Perhaps we can try putting in the values for 30M and 1H/4H?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.PNG Size: 12 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,278
  • Jul 23, 2013 12:12pm Jul 23, 2013 12:12pm
Quoting Forex Lion
{quote} nice face on your chart on my chart the current zz top is outside bb and the ema1 has been outside too. stoch was outside too. This should be a regular zz top... by the way...today I opened a live-account
I meant that your crooked ZZ line is because of that fake Top... a repaint basically.
Congrats on opening an account. Start small
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,279
  • Jul 23, 2013 12:13pm Jul 23, 2013 12:13pm
Well, that's it for work... see you at home folks.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,280
  • Jul 23, 2013 12:33pm Jul 23, 2013 12:33pm
Quoting blackqn
{quote} There are holes. Did you play closing price gaps? It works, when it appears. EURUSD also provided his sentiment with a shadow of the doubt... I don't remember the word, but there was nothing about certainit. I was worride by this, but I'm looking how that develops since there are many factors and even 97% of rightness must sometimes mean failure. Probability, the kid, the coin, the gun and the death...

Ok. First of all gaps are made by PRICE not indicators and that is a huge difference. Of course he has doubts and the reason is : his system doesn't work as good as he describes it. Do you realize how much is 97%? It is astronomical percent of accuracy. Every bank would pay any money for that.

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