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The similarity system

  • #4,101
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:57am Jul 23, 2013 3:57am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Eurusdd
The Trap of Probability DAD: Son, if you toss a fair coin the probability that you will get 5/10 tails is 0.5. SON: Cool dad!!! ------ Later that day: The boy bought a new fair-coin and a new gun!!! BOY: I am going to test my daddy's theory. I will toss this coin 20 times and If I do not get even a single head -I will kill myself! -- -- Later later that evening: He got 20 tails!!! HE KILLED HIMSELF!!!

So the moral of the story is don't rely on probabilities. Use proper Risk management!
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #4,102
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:05am Jul 23, 2013 4:05am
Quoting Eurusdd
The Trap of Probability DAD: Son, if you toss a fair coin the probability that you will get 5/10 tails is 0.5. SON: Cool dad!!! ------ Later that day: The boy bought a new fair-coin and a new gun!!! BOY: I am going to test my daddy's theory. I will toss this coin 20 times and If I do not get even a single head -I will kill myself! -- -- Later later that evening: He got 20 tails!!! HE KILLED HIMSELF!!!
More on this here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6253336#post6253336).
Even if you fall on your face, you're still moving forward.
  • #4,103
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:08am Jul 23, 2013 4:08am
Great so far, short at 13200. Closed most in profit but have a small .07 running (this is real money!). Would be targeting 131601 if the green zone is to be taken out again. Thanks Eurusdd. My CI hourly charts confirm fall too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,104
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:08am Jul 23, 2013 4:08am
Quoting Eurusdd
The Trap of Probability DAD: Son, if you toss a fair coin the probability that you will get 5/10 tails is 0.5. SON: Cool dad!!! ------ Later that day: The boy bought a new fair-coin and a new gun!!! BOY: I am going to test my daddy's theory. I will toss this coin 20 times and If I do not get even a single head -I will kill myself! -- -- Later later that evening: He got 20 tails!!! HE KILLED HIMSELF!!!

We can play this game and choose right winning probability
http://www.haverford.edu/math/cgreene/390b-00/software/CoinFlip.html
For example (click on url).
TAILS = BUY, HEADS = SELL. If we see on our ZZ = Buy Buy Sell => TTH, type it in string A and click generate on string B. Then we have HTT (sell buy buy) next possibly move (75%).
And we need buy a GUN
Don't try to buy at the bottom or sell at the top Bernard Baruch
  • #4,105
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:09am Jul 23, 2013 4:09am
Quoting smallcat
{quote} Hi vlady1974, It reaches that level now .... for the second time : 1.32038 ..... and the price is stay not far from that level ..... you're right, it's the second kiss, i think ... Ready for sinking through the hole .....
Believe it or not.... I read it in a book
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,106
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:10am Jul 23, 2013 4:10am
SELL every top!!! Do you see the two FAKE attempts at the top...?
  • #4,107
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:11am Jul 23, 2013 4:11am
Quoting Ralome
{quote} More on this here (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6253336#post6253336).

Yeah, I love CrucialPoint's threads, he's a genius, lol
  • #4,108
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:12am Jul 23, 2013 4:12am
Quoting blackqn
{quote} Hmm.. Just guessing, one problem solved, then fake uphill and down to 1.31382 pointed-out by EURUSDD? Why not wait till top, nice top with Stoch and EMA passing BB, on m15 forms? Looks like it is coming... And the ZZ arm... {image} And other thing. Shaln't we be extremally carefull at similarity periods?
Hi Blackqn... this is what I saw before I left home. My alerts were set for any price higher than 3195 and 3200. As soon I had those, I knew the ZZBottom was confirmed. Forearmed with the Double Kiss principle, Eurusdd's prediction, Daz's info about Big Boy shorts @ 3205... and a whole bunch of stuff... I could afford to be aggressive with the Short at 3199.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,109
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:12am Jul 23, 2013 4:12am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting neio
closed my short for now. Price seems to be ranging. Will look for another opportunity to go short. Edit: Watch it go south now....lol
noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!! Lol
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #4,110
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:12am Jul 23, 2013 4:12am
Quoting Eurusdd
SELL every top!!!
DONE! 120 PIPS coming my way!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,111
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:13am Jul 23, 2013 4:13am
Quoting Eurusdd
{quote} The system we have - ZZ included - is the closest to NEAR-perfection, I have ever seen or used. It is a beast! Look at ZZ closely, real close! For your information: DO not second-guess 1.32. They will take it out!!!
Hi guys,

After reading EURUSDD's comment I have been trying to look into ZZ indicator on the internet and trying to figure out how it works. The major thing in which I am interested is to know the conditions necessary for ZZ to draw a new leg. It seems that there is not much information available for this indicator. By what I have gathered about it:

The ZZ parameters are as follows -
ExtDepth - Looks for the HH and LL in the range of ExtDepth number of candles. In current template it is 24.
ExtDeviation (% tolerance) difference between the current low/high with new low/high after which a new leg or a repaint will occur. In current template it is 5.
ExtBackstep is apparently the number of previous Highs and Lows that it looks at. In current template it is 15.

I am not sure about the ExtDeviation parameter.
According to the currently used template ZZ has the following settings - ExtDepth =24; ExtDeviation = 5%; ExtBackstep =15;
For this ZZ a new leg must be created after the price deviates 5%(of the range) from the range high/low.

Not considering the repainting legs a part of this analysis. I am not sure if the above statement is true.

My observation states that a NEW leg forms approximately when price retraces by 50% of the 24 bar range. This is not based on any calculation but a rough approximation via visual verification.

But this observation is also contradicted by EURUSDD's other thread, where he states that a 24 period stochastic's top(100) and bottom(0) levels coincide with 24 period ZZ legs. So every time price touches the high/low of last 24 bars range a new ZZ leg will form.

Which contradicts my observation above that the price needs to retrace by 50% of the range in order to draw a new leg.

So in the end I am not sure of the conditions which the indicator takes as an input to output a new ZZ leg on the chart.

If anyone can shed some light on this, it will be really helpful.

Ravs.
  • #4,112
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:22am Jul 23, 2013 4:22am
Quoting ravs_avs
According to the currently used template ZZ has the following settings - ExtDepth =24; ExtDeviation = 5%; ExtBackstep =15; For this ZZ a new leg must be created after the price deviates 5%(of the range) from the range high/low.
Are you sure about this? A new leg will appear(almost surely) as soon as the current high/low is the highest/lowest over the ZZ period!
  • #4,113
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:25am Jul 23, 2013 4:25am
Here's something which you might find useful to test the double CI method described earlier. This way you can save some valuable screen space AND add extra distinction to the different settings besides choosing different colors. The SpikeSize setting is at the end. No other modifications were made.

"Length. This one can be used to pick TOPS/BOTTOMS."
"Priceactionfilter : This [...] cannot be used to pick tops/bottoms but confirm them [...]"

Double indy attach 101:

1. Attach the indy to the chart. Pick your desired length setting. Set spike size to 2.0. Go to the common tab and set fixed minimum to -2.2, fixed maximum to 2.2.

2. Pull up Navigator (View/Navigator or CTRL+N). Find the indy in the list. Drag it to the chart SUBWINDOW where the first instance of the indy is. Pick your desired priceactionfilter setting. Set spike size to 1.0. Go to the common tab and set fixed minimum to -2.2, fixed maximum to 2.2.

3. Done

You can choose any other numbers instead of 2.0/1.0 for SpikeSize, the point is, they should be different. Don't forget to set the fixed min/max accordingly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130723-doubleci.jpg Size: 199 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Cycle Identifier wHistory_SpikeSize.mq4   29 KB | 948 downloads
Even if you fall on your face, you're still moving forward.
  • #4,114
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:27am Jul 23, 2013 4:27am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} DONE! 120 PIPS coming my way!
Fantastic.
a lot to learn.
  • #4,115
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:34am Jul 23, 2013 4:34am
Quoting Ralome
Here's something which you might find useful to test the double CI method described earlier. This way you can save some valuable screen space AND add extra distinction to the different settings besides choosing different colors. The SpikeSize setting is at the end. No other modifications were made. "Length. This one can be used to pick TOPS/BOTTOMS." "Priceactionfilter : This [...] cannot be used to pick tops/bottoms but confirm them [...]" Double indy attach 101: 1. Attach the indy to the chart. Pick your desired length setting. Set spike size...
I want more brain power!
  • #4,116
  • Edited 7:00am Jul 23, 2013 4:36am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting Ralome
Here's something which you might find useful to test the double CI method described earlier. This way you can save some valuable screen space AND add extra distinction to the different settings besides choosing different colors. The SpikeSize setting is at the end. No other modifications were made. "Length. This one can be used to pick TOPS/BOTTOMS." "Priceactionfilter : This [...] cannot be used to pick tops/bottoms but confirm them [...]" Double indy attach 101: 1. Attach the indy to the chart. Pick your desired length setting. Set spike size...
Thanks again Ralome, another goodie. I love this thread and the good people here. Still holding my tiny short and watching hourly chart which is in period of dis and promising great falls. I will place a stop at 13200 to break even if it shoots up while I'm not watching and first target is still 131601.....(house packing calling).
  • #4,117
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:36am Jul 23, 2013 4:36am
Okay, question: Without being rude or intruding on privacy... Can some of the guys please post screenshots of their MT4 setup or screen layout?

I wish to get an idea of how you all "manage" the different indicator methods for SIMILARITY. Given that there's CI and BBZZ.... before I go ahead and set this up for myself (YES I'M GONNA GET A remote VPS!) I thought I'd ask and get ideas for efficiency etc.

I want to be able to trade quickly not study for hours.... that is what the indicators are meant to do after all. Eg. do you use 2 templates to manage the dual screens of diff indicators?

Many thanks in advance Sim Team!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #4,118
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:38am Jul 23, 2013 4:38am
Quoting Neio
{quote} noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!! Lol
I feel ya!...How on earth does one screw up when setting a trailing stop and ended up closing the position instead AH!!! it just hit my tp..add salt to wound!
I want more brain power!
  • #4,119
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:40am Jul 23, 2013 4:40am
Have you guys noticed something? I am not just giving you price targets but in most of my posts, I am actually telling you the way price will move! I don't watch fundamentals at all or work with any bank/financial institution. I can do this till I die and almost surely get it right.
I am trying to force you to sit back and ask yourself some questions. I will stop posting at some point but by that time ........

Moral: You can know where price will go - without listening to NEWS ...... Forex-trading is possible. turn the 95% failure upside down.

The secret is on your chart!!!
  • #4,120
  • Jul 23, 2013 4:41am Jul 23, 2013 4:41am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} I feel ya!...How on earth does one screw up when setting a trailing stop and ended up closing the position instead AH!!! it just hit my tp..add salt to wound!
Yeah typical hey! Oh well...another trade will be along soon!!!
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
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