How can you tell a continuation of a move?

This question is primarily addressed to profitable traders who understand how the major players move the price around.

I now know enough how to pick the reversal at swing points, but that understanding alone is not enough if you don't know how long that move will be sustained for. Sometimes it's a short swing. Sometimes it's a long seing. One way of knowing that: it depends on news release. The bigger the news, the bigger the possible movement. They help to propel the swing move. But on a clear day, I find it difficult to determine an optimum TP. My TP is arbitrary. And although they are quite often hit, they are not optimal TP. Price often goes much further than my TP. And I'm not confident enough to trade from one swing to another, yet.

So really the question is: What stops you from closing your position early, say at +49/+78 pips? What makes you stay in the market, knowing that your 100/200 TP will be hit? What understanding do you have that makes you confident to do that?

And if you understand my question, I can easily tell that you wouldn't simply say "just use Trailing SL". The market is designed to hit your SL and Trailing SL. I myself only use manual jump SL. But without the answer to the question above, it would be useless.

I understand if you don't want to post your answer here. So a PM would be nice too.

I'd love to sincerely thanks those who answer my question. It's been buggin me for a while.

No one knows that "it will continue and hit my 200 pips target". I just use my extensive testing and tweaking, and experience, to know that it's very likely that whatever pattern I'm trading on whatever pair will have an 80% chance of going all the way. It's all expectations, testing and adjustements.

You don't want to hear it, but i ll say it anyway: trail your stops. Also, do partial closes. That's the only way to catch big trends and stay in the game for the "big" 200 pips. You could hit +49pips, close half your position and put your SL at break even and let it ride til the 200.

I can't tell you how to "know", because no one does. Just test and try things out. Chart time, work and experience will help.

News releases often trigger a reversal, but to be sustained it needs to be either supported by a fundamental shift in investor sentiment or confirmed by swings in other markets. When I see USD change direction i look at equity indices, bond markets and gold to see if any of them also changed. If not, the swing is unlikely to follow through.

I don't use TP - IMO using a TP just limits profits and eliminates the big winners from your bottom line. I also use a manual jump SL, moving it each time a new potential S/R forms behind the current price. I constantly monitor the fundamental/intermarket situation to see if I really want to be in the market in that direction. I ask myself this: If I had no open positions, would this be a trade I would want to enter in this situation? If not, or if I am not sure, I exit the trade at that moment.

There's no such thing as knowing what will happen next. My TP is set at a certain distance because my edge indicates that this is where my TP will most likely be hit. All I know is the rough probability of my trade hitting TP. If I knew what will happen next then there would be no need for SL and I would put 100% on the line, every time.

What gives you confidence to not play with your TP once it is in place? Solid backtesting results and extensive live/forward experience.

understanding alone is not enough if you don't know how long that move will be sustained for.
== no one know for sure how long that move will be sustained for,, people just guess ,or habit because often experience it

I find it difficult to determine an optimum TP. My TP is arbitrary. And although they are quite often hit, they are not optimal TP. Price often goes much further than my TP.
==I guess, everyone is difficult to determine an optimum TP.,(,also too early to take profit , will not make us go bankrupt )

What stops you from closing your position early, say at +49/+78 pips? What makes you stay in the market, knowing that your 100/200 TP will be hit? What understanding do you have that makes you confident to do that?
===each person,will do different things, based on their respective experiences

Thanks for all the answers.

It's happening again. Today, I got GBP/AUD short at the very top, but I only managed to get 65 pips out of it, before it ran for ~150 pips. How on Earth would you guys know that it will go as far as ~150? In this case trailing stop would work, but this is a rare case where price just slides down. I expected at least a 50 pips movement before a possible retrace and I did get more than that.

As usual, fundamentals don't give any real clue. 0.6% prelim GDP as forecast. Yet GBP went south. Will it continue, will it not? And by how much?