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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #7,881
  • Jul 22, 2013 10:50am Jul 22, 2013 10:50am
push pullback push

failure to push beyond 153.354 is evident, but pullback is being contained by 152.684

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do not follow me 99.9999999% of times, rest you can lol
  • #7,882
  • Jul 22, 2013 10:53am Jul 22, 2013 10:53am
Quoting PatienceFx
push pullback push failure to push beyond 153.354 is evident, but pullback is being contained by 152.684 {image}
Definitely making this a tough call, haha. The next day might be the most important assuming we get enough volatility to break towards those one of those two
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #7,883
  • Jul 22, 2013 10:54am Jul 22, 2013 10:54am
Quoting MohSETH
It seems that is going up I am full Long
I am on board with you now. I'm going to try to hold this long for more than a few hours... lol

Quoting str33t
Well put sir, its [TA] really the difference between gambling and trading.
I love this statement! I think it is so true!

Quoting apfrezza
What I really don't like about this kind of techical analysis that I see here is the fact that you always say that there are 2 possibilities: 1) Go up 2) If will not go up then it will go down This is something quite obvious...I think that we should concentrate at what is really happening! I mean, we have seen a down movement while we all expected an up movement after japanese elections. Why is this happening? It is only because someone is buying Yen because they are expecting Nikkei will move up or there is a different reason? ...I know that most...
Also, I'd like to address this statement by apfrezza. This is kind of how I felt a while ago earlier on in my trading. It seems a little ambiguous to say something so blatantly obvious, right? Price will either go up, or it will go down! But when you gain more experience, at least for me, you really start to find what Mpt is referring to as those "key levels". You can call them support and resistance, supply and demand, high-lows, fractals, or anything you want to, but it is a way to keep track of momentum, especially when you consider the PA relative to those levels.

You can even go as far as to place a pending buy stop or sell stop at each of those key levels or very near, and you can often get a great entry into a breakout trade.
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  • #7,884
  • Jul 22, 2013 10:58am Jul 22, 2013 10:58am
Quoting PatienceFx
push pullback push failure to push beyond 153.354 is evident, but pullback is being contained by 152.684 {image}
a third failure at 153.354 and bears will be in full control, not very tough to see that one
do not follow me 99.9999999% of times, rest you can lol
  • #7,885
  • Jul 22, 2013 11:21am Jul 22, 2013 11:21am
Quoting PatienceFx
a third failure at 153.354 and bears will be in full control, not very tough to see that one
I thought that bears were in full control last night, but I was wrong. I actually think the bulls have control now in the short-term, which is why I am long. Of course, a third failure of 153.354 like you said would not be good for the bulls, but I actually think that there's enough momentum to push through. I believe this buying opportunity may last for several more hours. After that, I think the bears could take control.
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  • #7,886
  • Jul 22, 2013 11:32am Jul 22, 2013 11:32am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} My thoughts exactly...
Second that. After last weeks failure.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,887
  • Jul 22, 2013 2:53pm Jul 22, 2013 2:53pm
great reading...yep, that election was completely priced into the JPY pairs.
..

when it gets over to the USD like this...I allot it all to the USD/CHF. it really moves. I'm in love with the GBP/JPY if she will promise me to get past 163.xx
  • #7,888
  • Jul 22, 2013 4:02pm Jul 22, 2013 4:02pm
Finally, she is moving... Took some partial profits here around 153.08. That was pretty frustrating with the 4 or so shakeouts in a row.
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  • #7,889
  • Jul 22, 2013 5:03pm Jul 22, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I thought that bears were in full control last night, but I was wrong. I actually think the bulls have control now in the short-term, which is why I am long. Of course, a third failure of 153.354 like you said would not be good for the bulls, but I actually think that there's enough momentum to push through. I believe this buying opportunity may last for several more hours. After that, I think the bears could take control.


It's double sided. Bears are in control of USD-JPY right now, although that might be short lived as it could retest 100.50-101.50 area. Bulls are in control of GBP-USD for time being. Which is why if you're shorting yen pairs it's best to stick with UJ.

But now we have the issue of EU GU AU running into resistance, so maybe the markets reverse for a bit. Interesting week for sure.
  • #7,890
  • Jul 22, 2013 5:31pm Jul 22, 2013 5:31pm
Quoting Ck87
It's double sided. Bears are in control of USD-JPY right now, although that might be short lived as it could retest 100.50-101.50 area. Bulls are in control of GBP-USD for time being. Which is why if you're shorting yen pairs it's best to stick with UJ. But now we have the issue of EU GU AU running into resistance, so maybe the markets reverse for a bit. Interesting week for sure.
Interesting week and interesting post! I've heard this before... that GJ is double sided because of UJ and GU, and that makes perfect sense and I believe it. And I would love to be able to monitor three pairs at once (GJ, UJ, GU), but right now I just dont have the screen space to trade more than a pair at a time. It kind of sucks because I bet comparing all three of them relative to each other and trading the best setup only would improve my success rate.

I can't buy a new monitor now just for trading and I have so many windows open that to change them all manually all the time would be very frustrating. I can't think of an automatic way to change multiple windows to "x" symbol, unless there is a script somewhere out there that I don't know about? It actually shouldn't be that hard to program and maybe I would just do it if there's no such thing?

Btw, I'll trust your analysis on UJ/GU without taking a look at them. I'm still long Geppy, but very cautious.
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  • #7,891
  • Edited 6:07pm Jul 22, 2013 5:45pm | Edited 6:07pm
I think GJ just needs a little bit of volume... and then we'll be off

Maybe that was the last shakeout I hope. Looks like volumes are picking up here (they are so, so light), but I still remain very cautious. I'm trying to understand the importance of volume in much greater detail now.

PS: Does anyone think this might be setting up to be a major short squeeze? I'm just wondering.
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  • #7,892
  • Edited 6:39pm Jul 22, 2013 6:16pm | Edited 6:39pm
Yeah, okay I guess I spoke too soon. So typical that whenever I try to use volume it f*ing bites me in the ass. Fortunately I got out of there without too much damage. I can explain why this is happening now I'm juust really mad about how I traded this as usual. The trigger here was the 1H chart (I'm pretty sure it wasn't a Japanese tv ad this time haha), but I'm not going to say more than that. I guess I need to spend less time typing here and more time trading FML

And the only reason I said short squeeze above is because once the 4H chart is done selling off, we should go higher and break above 153.354 and set some new levels. I guess we're not there yet though.
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  • #7,893
  • Jul 22, 2013 7:16pm Jul 22, 2013 7:16pm
WTF is going on with GJ? Is this a mother f*ing short squeeze someone tell me wtf is happening. No fundamentals I want technical answers only for the last hour please.
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  • #7,894
  • Jul 22, 2013 7:30pm Jul 22, 2013 7:30pm
Quoting smash1820
WTF is going on with GJ? Is this a mother f*ing short squeeze someone tell me wtf is happening. No fundamentals I want technical answers only for the last hour please.
Nothing odd is going on. The next bounce from about 151.7 /8 or whatever will determine whether this is a correction ( upside ) or part of a down move.
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  • #7,895
  • Jul 22, 2013 7:34pm Jul 22, 2013 7:34pm
Quoting PatienceFx
push pullback push failure to push beyond 153.354 is evident, but pullback is being contained by 152.684 {image}
finally bears are in full control

first tp 152, second 151.785 for a pull back
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  • #7,896
  • Jul 22, 2013 7:35pm Jul 22, 2013 7:35pm
Quoting Mpt
Nothing odd is going on. The next bounce from about 151.7 /8 or whatever will determine whether this is a correction ( upside ) or part of a down move. {image}
It's a correction... that is clear, at least to me. I would even go as far as to call this a short squeeze (see my comments above).... Convergence of multiple time frames... we are going way, way, way higher now imo. This is exactly what I was afraid of. A mother fucking shakeout right before the big move. Not a surprise that I traded it like a f*ing moron.

Sorry for the language, I am pissssssssed

Perhaps I am in the minority here, but I do not at all think bears are in control. I think that was a shakeout to get rid of the weak hands like me. Keep in mind they usually try to do the opposite right before a big move.
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  • #7,897
  • Jul 22, 2013 7:39pm Jul 22, 2013 7:39pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} It's a correction... that is clear, at least to me. I would even go as far as to call this a short squeeze (see my above comments).... Convergence of multiple time frames... we are going way, way, way higher now. This is exactly what I was afraid of. A mother fucking shakeout right before the big move. Not a surprise that I traded it like a f*ing moron. Sorry for the language, I am pissssssssed

Well, sorry to be argumentative, but it is not clear that it is a correction. I personally think it's going down. But what I think is immaterial ... it is not clear yet.
  • #7,898
  • Jul 22, 2013 7:51pm Jul 22, 2013 7:51pm
Still holding the shorts lads. Last week was frustrating picking the down 150 pips too early initially but all is well that ends well
  • #7,899
  • Jul 22, 2013 8:01pm Jul 22, 2013 8:01pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Well, sorry to be argumentative, but it is not clear that it is a correction. I personally think it's going down. But what I think is immaterial ... it is not clear yet.
CRAP!!!! I had a really long, awesome post written in response to this and I was just about to post it but it got f*ing deleted again. Man, I was basically going to share with you all my system... Not that any of you are probably interested in it anyways since I'm such a shitty ass trader.

But now, f* it. I'm not writing this all over again. I will just say be cautious here because I am not confident enough that the bears have control. In my opinion, GJ could be setting up for a nasty headfake, shakeout, or even short squeeze, whatever you want to call it, I believe that a sharp move upwards could very well be in the cards.

Plus, Mpt I will never be mad for anyone being argumentative. I see that as a good thing because that is how you learn and grow... by challenging each other. For me especially lol.... I wish more people here would be willing to speak up with their thoughts... and tell me that I am wrong!! LOL
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  • #7,900
  • Jul 22, 2013 8:17pm Jul 22, 2013 8:17pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} CRAP!!!! I had a really long, awesome post written in response to this and I was just about to post it but it got f*ing deleted again. Man, I was basically going to share with you all my system... Not that any of you are probably interested in it anyways since I'm such a shitty ass trader. But now, f* it. I'm not writing this all over again. I will just say be cautious here because I am not confident enough that the bears have control. In my opinion, GJ could be setting up for a nasty headfake, shakeout, or even short squeeze, whatever you...
Gbp strength is the only reason your longs are still good. Usd and euro have pulled back. Actually still under water on geppy, far from it on euro.
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