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  • #7,861
  • Edited 2:38am Jul 22, 2013 2:23am | Edited 2:38am
Arghhhh. This .642 support is holding up a lot better than I expected right now. I bet they are pushing this up just because I got short now hahahaha

Now it's just a question of how much steam do the bulls have left (in the short-term)? PA is definitely still bullish, but I fear that a fakeout could be very near. Will the .862 resistance that I have marked hold? We shall see. But I do not suspect that the bulls have much steam left.
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  • #7,862
  • Jul 22, 2013 2:46am Jul 22, 2013 2:46am
Gotta give it some time. 100 level on USD-JPY should prove to be resistance now and we should fall down to 99.33 soon enough taking GJ way lower. I believe we will hit 150 level this week on GJ, hopefully we're still short and I'm right

Little bit upset with myself for getting greedy, was originally supposed to be stopped out for 100pip profit at 152.45, but I took the stop off thinking we're gonna smash way lower. Ugh, greed!

15minute candle closing under 99.87 for UJ should do the trick. Would definitely be better off short UJ because GU is strong right now.
  • #7,863
  • Jul 22, 2013 2:48am Jul 22, 2013 2:48am
Just one POSSIBLE way of looking at it ... or it may really be in a simple correction of the uptrend.

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  • #7,864
  • Jul 22, 2013 3:17am Jul 22, 2013 3:17am
You guys are good....the cycle low will kick in soon, so we need a down turn soon according to that.
  • #7,865
  • Jul 22, 2013 3:21am Jul 22, 2013 3:21am
Quoting Mpt
Just one POSSIBLE way of looking at it ... or it may really be in a simple correction of the uptrend. {image}
That's a beautiful chart, Mpt. I take it that you are short too? Failure to break past TL and resistance should point towards the bears, no?

If I'm not mistaken by the assumption that you are short, I find it very interesting that there are so many different ways to reach the same conclusion. It's like math. There are a variety of ways and methods to get to the right solution, but in the end, it only matters that you were right.

PS: CK man I agree with everything you've said. I think you're spot on in saying that UJ 100 will prove to be resistance and push down everything else. Yeah, it does suck that GJ is strong now... but maybe that will change with the US open... GBP/JPY, we always want to hear your thoughts!!! I have no clue what you mean by "cycle low", but let's hope we are right! I know I'll be praying as usual LOL
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  • #7,866
  • Jul 22, 2013 3:28am Jul 22, 2013 3:28am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} That's a beautiful chart, Mpt. I take it that you are short too? Failure to break past TL and resistance should point towards the bears, no? If I'm not mistaken by the assumption that you are short, I find it very interesting that there are so many different ways to reach the same conclusion. It's like math. There are a variety of ways and methods to get to the right solution, but in the end, it only matters that you were right.

Might be right .. might not. If it gets over 153, that chart may not apply.
  • #7,867
  • Jul 22, 2013 3:32am Jul 22, 2013 3:32am
Definitely possible that UJ goes back up to 100.50 or higher even, we can never know for sure. Market is clearly undecided right now, but soon enough momentum should break to downside. We're overbought both on Daily and 4h chart.
  • #7,868
  • Jul 22, 2013 3:39am Jul 22, 2013 3:39am
Quoting Ck87
Definitely possible that UJ goes back up to 100.50 or higher even, we can never know for sure. Market is clearly undecided right now, but soon enough momentum should break to downside. We're overbought both on Daily and 4h chart.
Man, you had to give it away, didn't you?

If you're not catching on to this... just wait until the tide aligns.
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  • #7,869
  • Jul 22, 2013 3:45am Jul 22, 2013 3:45am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Man, you had to give it away, didn't you?

Hahaha. Gotta train your mind to be ready for whatever !


I'm staying short, the technicals are really starting to look good to the downside. At least what I'm looking at. Sure we're still in an uptrend, but it's more sideways now and in consolidation phase.

It's like watching paint dry right now though, should prob get some sleep
  • #7,870
  • Jul 22, 2013 4:13am Jul 22, 2013 4:13am
Quoting Ck87
Hahaha. Gotta train your mind to be ready for whatever ! I'm staying short, the technicals are really starting to look good to the downside. At least what I'm looking at. Sure we're still in an uptrend, but it's more sideways now and in consolidation phase. It's like watching paint dry right now though, should prob get some sleep
Absolutely!

It is 4 AM for me my time. I'd be waking up for work in about 2 hours. I figure at this point might as well stay up the whole night and try to make something of it. The funny thing though is I was originally short from about 153.35 ish, and you'd think that I would be up a lot after making these calls... but I am not. I've actually lost money from the point of where I closed my short position. F*ing ridiculous is that not?!? Just proves the importance of sound money management and the rule of PDC: patience, discipline, and conviction. Also makes me want to finish my EA so bad! MQL programmers hit me up!
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  • #7,871
  • Jul 22, 2013 4:23am Jul 22, 2013 4:23am
While it looks like it will break down eventually, it may end up looking a bit like this. And it could break down (reversal)... or break up (correction of uptrend and continuation)

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  • #7,872
  • Jul 22, 2013 5:14am Jul 22, 2013 5:14am
What I really don't like about this kind of techical analysis that I see here is the fact that you always say that there are 2 possibilities:

1) Go up
2) If will not go up then it will go down

This is something quite obvious...I think that we should concentrate at what is really happening! I mean, we have seen a down movement while we all expected an up movement after japanese elections. Why is this happening? It is only because someone is buying Yen because they are expecting Nikkei will move up or there is a different reason?

...I know that most of you will say that I am not understanding your techincal analysys but please help me then...
  • #7,873
  • Jul 22, 2013 5:15am Jul 22, 2013 5:15am
It seems that is going up I am full Long
  • #7,874
  • Jul 22, 2013 5:30am Jul 22, 2013 5:30am
Quoting apfrezza
What I really don't like about this kind of techical analysis that I see here is the fact that you always say that there are 2 possibilities: 1) Go up 2) If will not go up then it will go down This is something quite obvious...I think that we should concentrate at what is really happening! I mean, we have seen a down movement while we all expected an up movement after japanese elections. Why is this happening? It is only because someone is buying Yen because they are expecting Nikkei will move up or there is a different reason? ...I know that most...
Technical analysis is not, in the first instance, about direction. It is about determining the key points/levels/milestones that may indicate the likelihood of bullishness or otherwise. Once the trend is confirmed it is then used to ascertain possible targets.

It is a way to work out entry and exit points without simply pushing the buy/sell button.

A signal service will offer a direction with little or no analysis and usually get it wrong.
  • #7,875
  • Jul 22, 2013 5:48am Jul 22, 2013 5:48am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Technical analysis is not, in the first instance, about direction. It is about determining the key points/levels/milestones that may indicate the likelihood of bullishness or otherwise. Once the trend is confirmed it is then used to ascertain possible targets. It is a way to work out entry and exit points without simply pushing the buy/sell button. A signal service will offer a direction with little or no analysis and usually get it wrong.
Well put sir, its really the difference between gambling and trading.
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #7,876
  • Jul 22, 2013 7:29am Jul 22, 2013 7:29am
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Also, I think you are mistaken because I was not actually laughing at sound technical theory, or any theory at all. I was laughing regarding his comment that if 163+ breaks, you would not want to sell or be a seller. In no way, shape, or form do I ever try to diminish the analysis or opinions of anyone else here. If anything, I try to challenge their analysis in hopes that we can all learn and grow together as a community... just like it should be. I am sick and tired of all the BS that is out there and that is why I came here to these forums...
Yes I think I may have taken you out of context my apologies, though probably because my bias is for a drop and 120 has been played with twice recently, the latter for several months. Best regards gents.
  • #7,877
  • Jul 22, 2013 9:02am Jul 22, 2013 9:02am
Pretty much exactly as expected. UJ getting crushed, Was the better short of all the pairs because of dollar weakness. GU crushing so GJ not down nearly as much. We're close to 99.33 now on UJ,,, at 99.44.

99.33 hit, next target 98.84 if we fail here.

GU very strong so GJ should continue to hold up better than most the others.
  • #7,878
  • Jul 22, 2013 9:24am Jul 22, 2013 9:24am
Quoting apfrezza
What I really don't like about this kind of techical analysis that I see here is the fact that you always say that there are 2 possibilities: 1) Go up 2) If will not go up then it will go down This is something quite obvious...I think that we should concentrate at what is really happening! I mean, we have seen a down movement while we all expected an up movement after japanese elections. Why is this happening? It is only because someone is buying Yen because they are expecting Nikkei will move up or there is a different reason? ...I know that most...
...
here it is....abe didn't get his 72 member majority....that would have done it.....the Japanese government bonds were going wild last week and that takes away stability for the future...as investors count on those bonds for benchmark type stuff going forward....then the us numbers tanked just now....
...
one could sell the aud short term for 70 pips and the u/j is a sell now at market....it's "C" wave was 100.60....now that c wave can go straight down. G/J too.!
  • #7,879
  • Jul 22, 2013 9:48am Jul 22, 2013 9:48am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} ... here it is....abe didn't get his 72 member majority....that would have done it.....the Japanese government bonds were going wild last week and that takes away stability for the future...as investors count on those bonds for benchmark type stuff going forward....then the us numbers tanked just now.... ... one could sell the aud short term for 70 pips and the u/j is a sell now at market....it's "C" wave was 100.60....now that c wave can go straight down. G/J too.!

One other thing to think about is that the economic policy of japan hasn't been a secret, and people have been selling off the yen for some time now because of that.. So the outcome of the election has been kind of built into the up trend for a while now.
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
  • #7,880
  • Jul 22, 2013 9:53am Jul 22, 2013 9:53am
One more sort of interesting thing to note here.. This is the weekly chart, we've been stuck in a mother bar for close to 2 months.. Not only that but even the week ahead never touched this momma's Hi-lows
Attached Image
Fall down 7 times, Stand up 8.
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