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The similarity system

  • #2,981
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:36am Jul 18, 2013 8:36am
Can we all agree the 15M has now printed a ZZ Bottom?
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #2,982
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:39am Jul 18, 2013 8:39am
I wouldn't dare to put any trade before Bernie...
But after these two days, I'm more than cautious...
  • #2,983
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:40am Jul 18, 2013 8:40am
Quoting vlady1974
Can we all agree the 15M has now printed a ZZ Bottom? {image}
Not yet. It can go lower if a new candle pushes price lower.
  • #2,984
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:42am Jul 18, 2013 8:42am
Quoting mattkirby
{quote} try it. A retrace is probable befor it goes down. Question is how high???? I still think it's the 3120s.
LOL That was the original plan!

But I think many including me, thought the retrace to 3160 would happen earlier and then NY would take it down.
Of course, when I think about it... why would any bank based in NYC want a lower price for shorts?

If anything, and this may change or be reinforced by Bernanke, but the move down was sharp and deliberate. It's a play for longs.
If I recall, the zone we were looking for wasn't in the sub 29XX, but 3050 to 3080??? so that's cleared. We should all have been short as at 3122 on an intraday basis.

I think now, we can clear our heads until Bernanke, but the play is definitely a confirmed ZZ Bottom so we are looking to go long until a ZZ Top is formed on the 15M. In my normal trading scenario, I would still need the SAR taken at 3094, and I wouldn't be placing any longs until MACD was over the zero line.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #2,985
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:42am Jul 18, 2013 8:42am
yes I also got a zz at bottom.
  • #2,986
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:44am Jul 18, 2013 8:44am
Quoting lnorbi
{quote} Not yet. It can go lower if a new candle pushes price lower.
Yes but the same could be said of any swing. The 3122 ZZ Top still had that potential... when did it become a confirmed top? When price crosses the BB Mid?

EDIT:
That is a rhetorical answer by the way.... i don't know. I'd like Eurusdd's thoughts.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #2,987
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:45am Jul 18, 2013 8:45am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Closed my long @ 1.30825. Still holding my two longs from earlier and my shorts from days ago....all demo.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #2,988
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:47am Jul 18, 2013 8:47am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Yeah I don't know about a confirmed ZZ bottom. What confirms it?
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #2,989
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:49am Jul 18, 2013 8:49am
Quoting Neio
Closed my long @ 1.30825. Still holding my two longs from earlier and my shorts from days ago....all demo.
Keep treating it like it's real and it will help!

No worries. I have one long still open.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #2,990
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:49am Jul 18, 2013 8:49am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Neio
Yeah I don't know about a confirmed ZZ bottom. What confirms it?

IF the ZZ did not appear when the 1EMA touched/crossed the bottom BB then that would have been a signal to go LONG?

If I understand the following correctly:

Quoting Eurusdd
The yellow zigzag line you see on the chart plays a very important role! It is designed to appear when the red 1EMA touches the upper/lower BB. Therefore, if the 1EMA is on the outer-band and there is no ZIGZAG line, that direction is highly false( study it and if the ZZ does not appear - get ready to continue in the previous direction). You can trade against it with a tight stop. In other words, the last leg of the ZZ is still valid! Every leg of the zigzag is suppose to appear - >97% of the time - when the 1EMA is on the outer band (top/bottom). {image} {image} {image}
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #2,991
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:51am Jul 18, 2013 8:51am
Quoting Neio
Yeah I don't know about a confirmed ZZ bottom. What confirms it?
That's something I'd like to know as well.
As purely from a mathematical / algorithmic perspective, ZZ is confirmed only if the number of bars set in ExtDepth have passed without a lower low / higher high than the marked one.

EDIT: for our settings depth is 24, so theoretically 24 bars should pass before the last marked top/bottom is final. But again, that just math, nothing about strategy.
  • #2,992
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:52am Jul 18, 2013 8:52am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} LOL That was the original plan! But I think many including me, thought the retrace to 3160 would happen earlier and then NY would take it down. Of course, when I think about it... why would any bank based in NYC want a lower price for shorts? If anything, and this may change or be reinforced by Bernanke, but the move down was sharp and deliberate. It's a play for longs. If I recall, the zone we were looking for wasn't in the sub 29XX, but 3050 to 3080??? so that's cleared. We should all have been short as at 3122 on an intraday basis....
the zone directly under isn't cleared yet. Zone is from 3076 to 3068. Lowest price till now was 3070. If eur breaks this Next zone for me is 2991 - 2975. Could imagine a retrace first to the pivot zone around 3126.
  • #2,993
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:54am Jul 18, 2013 8:54am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Those lower zones are older as well so should they not be hotter targets than the zone above???

Let me see if I can dig out the post on it...

Quoting Eurusdd
WHICH ZONES WILL BE CORRECTED? For those who have the right algorithms, there is a fairly accurate way to know which zone will be corrected at any given time. However, this is subject on the assumption that price does not create "opposite zones" (This is not easy to achieve)on its way to correction. Furthermore, when you extend the idea - correctly - across different time-frames, you should be able to tell which zone is a target. A crude way to identify hot zones is the time-factor. Those zones that have been around for some time are HOT!!! But hot here does not mean they will be taken out within 15 days!!!
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #2,994
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:54am Jul 18, 2013 8:54am
Quoting lnorbi
{quote} That's something I'd like to know as well. As purely from a mathematical / algorithmic perspective, ZZ is confirmed only if the number of bars set in ExtDepth have passed without a lower low / higher high than the marked one.
That's really hard! So basically.... a top is a top until it's a bottom!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #2,995
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:57am Jul 18, 2013 8:57am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
I guess we will get all our answers in less than 3 mins...
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #2,996
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:58am Jul 18, 2013 8:58am
Quoting mattkirby
{quote} the zone directly under isn't cleared yet. Zone is from 3076 to 3068. Lowest price till now was 3070. If eur breaks this Next zone for me is 2991 - 2975. Could imagine a retrace first to the pivot zone around 3126.
This will be a point of debate across-brokers. My lowest point was 70. Is 2 pips important? Eurusdd can answer that. It's 2/8 pips.... 25% is alot.
I know someone posted a chart (Neio?) where the zone was overlapped by the bar, so yes it has been cleared. Dunno. It does make things difficult and alters/influences your ability to plan ahead

.... not that this plan has gone well! LOL
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #2,997
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:59am Jul 18, 2013 8:59am
so in a few minutes we know the "truth". I put my seatbelt on
  • #2,998
  • Jul 18, 2013 9:01am Jul 18, 2013 9:01am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #2,999
  • Jul 18, 2013 9:04am Jul 18, 2013 9:04am
Fantastic. Daily S1 is kinda' still holding...
  • #3,000
  • Jul 18, 2013 9:06am Jul 18, 2013 9:06am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting lnorbi
Fantastic. Daily S1 is kinda' still holding...
...and the dollar news was positive again???

Has Bernanke got some bad news up his sleeves???? or the quiet before the storm down???
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
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