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Please Help: Which system to trade?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 17, 2013 10:24pm Jul 17, 2013 10:24pm
I know I made a thread before, but I am really at my wits end...

I have persevered so much, yet no matter what I do, I keep failing.


Even when I use "price action" which people say to be "the best way to trade", candlestick patterns only work 10% of the time, and even though I always trade with the trend, the trades always go in the opposite direction.


I don't know what to do anymore...


Is there any system I can study that will make me profitable with the proper work put in? Because I am so fed up with price action and how inaccurate it is.

I just don't know what to do anymore..

I always trade using S/R, yet it always fails and goes back on me...Its like I am cursed and nothing works for me..
  • #2
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:26pm Jul 17, 2013 10:26pm
By the way, I trade on the 15 minute charts, using the 1H for trend direction.

Price must be below/above 200EMA on both charts.
  • #3
  • Jul 17, 2013 10:29pm Jul 17, 2013 10:29pm
I spend SO many hours studying and in front of the charts, yet people who do nothing and treat this as a game do better than me.

I ask myself, how is it that someone who works so hard gets no where? How can I fail, when I spend 15 hours a day in front of charts and reading, for months on end?

Is this how life is? Do those who try hardest get nothing from it?
  • #4
  • Jul 17, 2013 11:14pm Jul 17, 2013 11:14pm
You say that you have "persevered so much"....how long are we talking about here?......what does "so much" mean?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #5
  • Jul 18, 2013 12:23am Jul 18, 2013 12:23am
You're spending 15 hours a day drawing lines on past price action and reading forums? Trading is as hard as you want it to be.

If you want to review historic price movement, find the tops and bottoms of trends and see if you can find what the market's sentiment was, what data was released to start movement in the opposite direction. Once you know teach yourself what to look for, you'll be ready to enter trades in real time; not needing to see the chart.
  • #6
  • Jul 18, 2013 12:38am Jul 18, 2013 12:38am
Oh, my friend
You'd better go out to have a breath instead of starting threads only with big title like this.
If I were you, I'd look for good traders and share ideas with them to found better strategies.
There are many useful thread in this forum, so read them first.
  • #7
  • Jul 18, 2013 1:32am Jul 18, 2013 1:32am
You should study the recent market movement, and connect the highs and lows of the trend with trend line, but make sure you don't end up painting the entire chart. only major support and resistances needs to be connected. Regarding the fundamental aspects, one should be able to know various fundamental aspects affecting the recent movement. In order to achieve this edge, one should be aware of the various economic calenders and should cultivate the habit of reading financial dailies. As and when you start getting the heat you will become a successful trader.
  • #8
  • Jul 18, 2013 1:33am Jul 18, 2013 1:33am
Quoting Tok
I know I made a thread before, but I am really at my wits end... I have persevered so much, yet no matter what I do, I keep failing. Even when I use "price action" which people say to be "the best way to trade", candlestick patterns only work 10% of the time, and even though I always trade with the trend, the trades always go in the opposite direction. I don't know what to do anymore... Is there any system I can study that will make me profitable with the proper work put in? Because I am so fed up with price action and how inaccurate it is....

If you are struggling then make it easier...... move out on the time frame, goto H4/Daily or Daily/Weekly prove you can trade on those time frames before trying shorter tfs, most retailers do not release that it is the tf they choose that kills their trades, a short time frame requires a much lower tolerance and yet more noise to deal with, and larger tf provides greater tolerance and less noise so start there. pick just one sensible pair to trade not some exotic or multiple pairs. master it, then think about moving to lower time frames or multiple pairs.
  • #9
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:34am Jul 18, 2013 2:34am
In Summary: Do not rush things, learn slowly at your comfortable pace......

if you rush to master forex trading, you will get depressed, your brain got stuck and maybe your subconscious would tell you that it is impossible, then you would waste your 15 hours a day of watching charts, because you won't be learning anything.....

know what to look for in the charts, watch which S/R lines PA would have high probability respecting it, find repeating patterns....
take notes, review your notes....... rinse and repeat..... you'll get there someday

Good luck
Failure leads to Success if one learns from mistakes and never give up
  • #10
  • Jul 18, 2013 8:11am Jul 18, 2013 8:11am
Quoting Tok
I know I made a thread before, but I am really at my wits end... I have persevered so much, yet no matter what I do, I keep failing. Even when I use "price action" which people say to be "the best way to trade", candlestick patterns only work 10% of the time, and even though I always trade with the trend, the trades always go in the opposite direction.
Candlestick patterns alone will not help you. Read this:
http://www.eminiplayer.com/2009/06/l...ul-trader.html
  • #11
  • Jul 18, 2013 1:18pm Jul 18, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting Tok
I know I made a thread before, but I am really at my wits end... I have persevered so much, yet no matter what I do, I keep failing. Even when I use "price action" which people say to be "the best way to trade", candlestick patterns only work 10% of the time, and even though I always trade with the trend, the trades always go in the opposite direction. I don't know what to do anymore... Is there any system I can study that will make me profitable with the proper work put in? Because I am so fed up with price action and how inaccurate it is....

Start educating yourself seriously.

"Bird Watching in Lion Country" might open your eyes about trading.

Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas-classic book on trading psychology
The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas
REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR -about one of the greatest traders ever Jesse Livermore essentially he invented Pivot trading.Started at age 14 in Massachusetts my home state and by 17 bucket shops were trying to push him away because he was winning like crazy.Anyway I learned patience from him.
He would read the tape (equivalent of charts at the time) for weeks without any orders then fire his orders at the right time.
Super Trader by Van K.Tharp-Extremely valuable book on trading.Tharp takes no excuses.
Harmonic Trading-Anything by Scott Carney-his free ebook is on his site.

For inspiration read
THE MARKET WIZARDS 1 and New one by JACK D. SCHWAGER

Although not required but if you like probability theory read
Probability Theory:

The Logic of Science
by
E. T. Jaynes
Wayman Crow Professor of Physics
Washington University


They are challenging books for challenging career so get to it.They are no short cuts.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #12
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:22pm Jul 18, 2013 2:22pm
Quoting Tok
I know I made a thread before, but I am really at my wits end... I have persevered so much, yet no matter what I do, I keep failing. Even when I use "price action" which people say to be "the best way to trade", candlestick patterns only work 10% of the time, and even though I always trade with the trend, the trades always go in the opposite direction. I don't know what to do anymore... Is there any system I can study that will make me profitable with the proper work put in? Because I am so fed up with price action and how inaccurate it is....
Firstly, let me caveat this post by saying this is just my opinion. Opinions are like assholes, everyone's got one. So take it or leave it.

I don't know what research you've done to show candlesticks only work 10% of the time. This is bs. Emperical evidence has been gathered and provided by many academics, that suggests price action and candlestick patters are 75%+ effective as a predictive tool. (don't quote me on that figure, it's from memory, but it's way over 50% I know that much at least)

As for all these fine books people are suggesting, by all means, read them if you have the time and inclination, they certainly can't do any more harm. I'll even suggest a couple, which helped me more than any of the ones suggested thus far:

  1. Street Smarts: High Probability Short Term Trading Strategies by Laurence A. Connors and Linda Bradford Raschke
  2. Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout by Tony Crabel (if you can get hold of a copy and afford it)

Lastly, get screen time and practice. You have to become unconsciously competent.
To do that you need to execute many, many trades. Trade/Train like a prop trader. (on a demo account)
Close your charts and just look at price (market watch or whatever it's called on your preferred platform)
Execute 70-100 trades a day, taking 2 pips and exiting. (regardless of profit potential. This is execution practice remember)
Enter 70-100 trades a day randomly and manage them.
Do this in sessions, everyday, for as long as you can concentrate/focus (usually 1-2hrs at a time)
Do this for a min of 6 weeks, then start looking at your charts for the next 6 weeks, but follow the same routine on a short time-frame (tick & 1min charts, 5 min max)
Try to spot setups on these short time frames and execute, execute, execute and execute some more.

From here you can start looking for "a system" or whatever you want and start looking at longer term trading or whatever "style" suits you. Your execution however will be way, way better.

After all that, the only thing that can fuck it up, is you.

All the best.

Carpe Divitiae
  • #13
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:31pm Jul 18, 2013 2:31pm
Quoting mmaker
{quote} What do you think of Seneca Pilot's thread, Ramblings of a Forex Junkie ? Would you recommend it for Tok?

I only take advise from traders who were and are successful.Books are great specially when authors were/are traders and not merely "book" traders
I can not speak for Tok.This is the beauty of trading everyone brings what they got between their ears and even when things are layered out clearly one still has to deal with trading psychology.
Turtle traders were selected out of thousands applications and only 40 were selected.Richard Dennis explained exactly what needs to be done with his own money 500k each.
Guess what within short time most failed even with pro trader teaching and not risking their own money.
Moral of the story is One must search and stumble until they find what works for them.
I found what works for me and on my 2nd year of trading I average 8-10% a month.I don't follow "system" I follow what works for me.
To me key fact for my success is knowledge.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #14
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:42pm Jul 18, 2013 2:42pm
Quoting fsiltd
{quote} Execute 70-100 trades a day, taking 2 pips and exiting. (regardless of profit potential. This is execution practice remember)
I respectfully disagree.
It is harder to unlearn bad habits then learning good habits.Doing 70-100 trades for 2pips is useless unless one wants to become short term hyper scalper.
If I were going to teach someone chess I would not want to teach them 1min game....
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #15
  • Jul 18, 2013 2:48pm Jul 18, 2013 2:48pm
Sometimes best thing to do is to take a break.Clear the head and focus on knowledge.
By doing that you allow yourself to think fresh outside of your limitations.
Please read this article.Its very profound to me.It captures the essence of trading.

What Crocodiles Can Teach You About Trading
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16
  • Jul 18, 2013 3:05pm Jul 18, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I respectfully disagree. It is harder to unlearn bad habits then learning good habits.Doing 70-100 trades for 2pips is useless unless one wants to become short term hyper scalper. If I were going to teach someone chess I would not want to teach them 1min game.... regards
Personally I can't see why practicing execution is a bad habit. I don't see why learning price action (as in "no chart" price action) is a bad habit.
As I pointed out, this is not about making money initially. It's about "learning" to trade. (it was for me anyway)

Price patterns repeat on short and long timeframes.
If you can spot them and trade them, you can make money on any timeframe. Learning how to manage different timeframes is something that comes with experience.

As for chess, what would be better, 1x100m game per day or 100x1min games per day? If I was learning chess, I would prefer to know the rules of the game and opt for the latter.
The more chess you play, the better you get at it.
The more driving lessons you take, the better you get at it.
The more times you do laps in your F1 car around the track, the better you get at it.

The more you execute trades, the better you get at it.

But, to each his own, as they say.
Keep well all.
Carpe Divitiae
  • #17
  • Jul 18, 2013 7:42pm Jul 18, 2013 7:42pm
Trading is tough..and that's an understatement. So Tok? Any updates?
  • #18
  • Jul 19, 2013 3:03am Jul 19, 2013 3:03am
I don't even know what happened....

It just all of a sudden, appeared. All of it. Right there.


I just had a thought.

And one after another, it happened. Every single time it happened. Without fail, E V E R Y T H I N G that I predicted just happened.

If price did this, then that would happen 100% of the time.



Every single time without fail.

I can't believe it. In just a matter of an hour of thought, It just all clicked.


I am actually in awe at what I am able to do now, from just a single technical analysis realisation.
  • #19
  • Jul 19, 2013 3:11am Jul 19, 2013 3:11am
Its all on just one chart.

No need to even switch anymore. The trend, is there. But there are many trends. And you can even identify the moment it switches. Failed to break through that high, makes new lower high, surpasses past HIgh.


Now price has free reign. Everyone hops on board. Momentum reaches high levels.


Sell at next S/R.


Multi time frame analysis is absolute bs.

ITS ALL THERE ON THE MAIN CHART I WAS USING. It IS SO SIMPLE.

IF IT FAILS TO BREAK THROUGH, IT WILL TURN AROUND, AND IF IT MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH THE PAST HIGH, NOW ITS A DOWNTREND, REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE HIGHER TIME FRAMES SAY.

ITS ALL THERE.

How did this even happen to me? I don't know.




It doesn't even NEED A RETEST! Once it breaks through the previous one and closes, The momentum is so strong, that we wont even see a retest.

Retest is only for other S/R breakouts. The creation of new highs/lows in a newly formed trend, breaking through the past ones, wont even give you a retest.



Every single time without fail it has happened.




And what happens if by some chance, the 5M candle closes above the newly broken high/low in the opposite direction? Even for 1 pip? CLOSE THE TRADE. TRADE INVALIDATED.




Hahahahahahaha I can't believe it. I thought everyone was full of SH** when they said it just ticks in their head one day.




The only thing I regret, is that it is Friday, and that I must wait till Monday to start making profits. I know it now. I understand the way it all works. Every part of it.
  • #20
  • Jul 19, 2013 3:13am Jul 19, 2013 3:13am
Quoting Tok
I don't even know what happened.... It just all of a sudden, appeared. All of it. Right there. I just had a thought. And one after another, it happened. Every single time it happened. Without fail, E V E R Y T H I N G that I predicted just happened. If price did this, then that would happen 100% of the time. Every single time without fail. I can't believe it. In just a matter of an hour of thought, It just all clicked. I am actually in awe at what I am able to do now, from just a single technical analysis realisation....
oh dear, you were doing so well but according to your post in just 28 hours you have gone from total loser to total master....

WTF sounds like a scam in the making now
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