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NZD/USD

  • #2,181
  • Jul 15, 2013 8:58am Jul 15, 2013 8:58am
My limits longs were triggered while asleep(My favorite way)
at 7750 and 7770
Closed both for +80pips at 78 figured it will turn around south again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdm5.png Size: 28 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,182
  • Jul 15, 2013 4:38pm Jul 15, 2013 4:38pm
NZD news in one hour
"be content with your pay" - John the Baptist
  • #2,183
  • Jul 15, 2013 4:57pm Jul 15, 2013 4:57pm
I see lower lows and some bad news tonight could easily push this pair to .7700.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4.png Size: 56 KB
  • #2,184
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:07pm Jul 15, 2013 5:07pm
My question is if tonight's CPI number comes in at 0.3 which is lower then the previous .04 will it be enough to move the NZD down to .7700 or move it down at all ??
  • #2,185
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:13pm Jul 15, 2013 5:13pm
Quoting irongoose
My question is if tonight's CPI number comes in at 0.3 which is lower then the previous .04 will it be enough to move the NZD down to .7700 or move it down at all ??

Great better numbers to buy!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,186
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:14pm Jul 15, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Great better numbers to buy!
So you think NZD gos up if CPI is .03 ?
  • #2,187
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:20pm Jul 15, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} So you think NZD gos up if CPI is .03 ?

I have limit buys at 7770 7750 77 waiting
I only buy Kiwi at these numbers.No point shorting in my trading style.
To answer your question .01% difference is not significant to rock the market in significant way however if that happens think of it as opportunity to buy at lower prices.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,188
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:28pm Jul 15, 2013 5:28pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I have limit buys at 7770 7750 77 waiting I only buy Kiwi at these numbers.No point shorting in my trading style. To answer your question .01% difference is not significant to rock the market in significant way however if that happens think of it as opportunity to buy at lower prices.
This is from a story that just posted ..........

  1. Within expectations: 0.0% to 0.6%. In this scenario, NZD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: 0.7% to 1.0%: A strong reading than forecast could push the pair above one resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 1.0%: An unexpectedly sharp rise in inflation could push NZD/USD upwards, possibly breaking two or more lines of resistance.
  4. Below expectations: -0.4% to 0.1%: A reading in negative territory could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below -0.4%: Such a scenario could send the kiwi lower, possibly breaking two or more support levels.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=437476

  • #2,189
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:33pm Jul 15, 2013 5:33pm
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.8000, 0.7920, 0.7828, 0.77 and 0.7450.
  • #2,190
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:33pm Jul 15, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} This is from a story that just posted .......... Within expectations: 0.0% to 0.6%. In this scenario, NZD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels. Above expectations: 0.7% to 1.0%: A strong reading than forecast could push the pair above one resistance level. Well above expectations: Above 1.0%: An unexpectedly sharp rise in inflation could push NZD/USD upwards, possibly breaking two or more lines of resistance. Below expectations: -0.4% to 0.1%: A reading in negative territory...

I generally take those "forecasts" with grain of salt.
Market can react unexpected ways.I have my trading plan and I will buy anything below 7770
I hold trades sometimes weeks to give you perspective.

I also have larger picture in mind.US unemployment numbers are not improving and much of US economy "recovery" is dubious at best.
Bernanke hinted that he needs better numbers.
Markets will adjust to new reality.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,191
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:37pm Jul 15, 2013 5:37pm
Quoting irongoose
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.8000, 0.7920, 0.7828, 0.77 and 0.7450.
Looking at my chart not sure where they came up with .8000, .7920, 7828 levels.
  • #2,192
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:45pm Jul 15, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I generally take those "forecasts" with grain of salt. Market can react unexpected ways.I have my trading plan and I will buy anything below 7770 I hold trades sometimes weeks to give you perspective. I also have larger picture in mind.US unemployment numbers are not improving and much of US economy "recovery" is dubious at best. Bernanke hinted that he needs better numbers. Markets will adjust to new reality.
I've been saying for over a month the US can't create jobs anymore then chickens can lay golden eggs there for all this talk about tapering bond purchases was nothing more then BS pump and dump because over a month ago before the rumors got started two voting FOMC members made it very clear 200,000 jobs for 4 months in a row and 6.5% unemployment before any tapering was the goal all along.
  • #2,193
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:46pm Jul 15, 2013 5:46pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} Looking at my chart not sure where they came up with .8000, .7920, 7828 levels.

That is why I ignore article like that.
Best is looking at the charts and seeing those S/R yourself

My trading style is simple.Price tends to gravitate towards median line (green line at 80)
brown boxes indicates buy and sell zones to me.
Trading is simple guys.Don't over-think it
Take your usual 1 lot and divide into 4
Every time price drops 25pips add 25% lot and after all the mini lots entered you should have overall great average price.
Relax drink beer, have a life then check your orders in a week or less and chances are you will be in profit without stress
reduce your leverage and lot size and aim higher pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.weekly.png Size: 46 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,194
  • Jul 15, 2013 5:52pm Jul 15, 2013 5:52pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} That is why I ignore article like that. Best is looking at the charts and seeing those S/R yourself My trading style is simple.Price tends to gravitate towards median line (green line at 80) brown boxes indicates buy and sell zones to me. Trading is simple guys.Don't over-think it Take your usual 1 lot and divide into 4 Every time price drops 25pips add 25% lot and after all the mini lots entered you should have overall great average price. Relax drink beer, have a life then check your orders in a week or less and chances are you will be...
Is this your own trading plan or style or are you following someones course you learned?
  • #2,195
  • Jul 15, 2013 6:01pm Jul 15, 2013 6:01pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} Is this your own trading plan or style or are you following someones course you learned?

after struggling 1st year of trading lower TF it finally hit me that key profits are in longer time frame.
I average 8-10% a month since 2013 2nd year of trading.
Interesting that I came across a book "Bird watching in Lion Country" which does what I do so read it and get a broader concept about trading.
As with everything you must choose a style that suits your personality and lifestyle.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,196
  • Jul 15, 2013 6:06pm Jul 15, 2013 6:06pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} after struggling 1st year of trading lower TF it finally hit me that key profits are in longer time frame. I average 8-10% a month since 2013 2nd year of trading. Interesting that I came across a book "Bird watching in Lion Country" which does what I do so read it and get a broader concept about trading. As with everything you must choose a style that suits your personality and lifestyle. Regards
I'll take a look.. thank you!
  • #2,197
  • Jul 15, 2013 6:13pm Jul 15, 2013 6:13pm
For anyone else who is interested in "Bird Watching in Lion Country" here is a link..........

http://www.bird-watching-in-lion-country.com/
  • #2,198
  • Jul 15, 2013 6:20pm Jul 15, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting irongoose
For anyone else who is interested in "Bird Watching in Lion Country" here is a link.......... http://www.bird-watching-in-lion-country.com/

If you google pdf you can download it free
Please understand that no 2 traders read the same material come away from same insight.That is the irony about trading.Much depends on you.
I read over 10 trading books and took ideas from each.So keep that in mind.Keep educating yourself.Always assume that your knowledge is not sufficient that way you are always hungry for more.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,199
  • Jul 15, 2013 6:37pm Jul 15, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} If you google pdf you can download it free Please understand that no 2 traders read the same material come away from same insight.That is the irony about trading.Much depends on you. I read over 10 trading books and took ideas from each.So keep that in mind.Keep educating yourself.Always assume that your knowledge is not sufficient that way you are always hungry for more.
Thank you once again and I agree with you 100% on the above statement, I myself have recently come across some material that I'm using as a strategy and have combined some things I know to it and have had some success with it and am excited about using it more!

But I'm always open to new things because they can lead to new ideas of ones own! Plus I believe that no one system works well in all markets and situations so its always a good idea to know more then one system so that you can trade in any market condition.
  • #2,200
  • Jul 15, 2013 8:05pm Jul 15, 2013 8:05pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} If you google pdf you can download it free Please understand that no 2 traders read the same material come away from same insight.That is the irony about trading.Much depends on you. I read over 10 trading books and took ideas from each.So keep that in mind.Keep educating yourself.Always assume that your knowledge is not sufficient that way you are always hungry for more.
Hi Davit,

Thanks for your insight and sharing your experience, would you be kind enough to suggest some trading books for starters?

Best Regards,
dormin
"be content with your pay" - John the Baptist
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