Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder | Page 121 | Forex Factory

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Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

  • #2,401
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:58am Jul 12, 2013 3:58am
Quoting Tedge UK
{quote} I'M Trading micro lots with 3rd screen

thanks tedge for the heads up..i had originally set the trading lots at 0.02 lots on the 10,000usd account
for my chosen pairs but it did not do any trades..changed it to 0.1 lots and boom boom boom it fired off trades...
i will revert to 0.02 lots and if it doesnt fire then get back to you with set files assistance if you will be so kind..cheers
Carpe Diem
  • #2,402
  • Jul 12, 2013 4:52am Jul 12, 2013 4:52am
Quoting normtold
{quote} Hi Khaled, I see a lot of people closing out positions when things go the wrong way. I am surprised you are doing it too, isn't the idea of this strategy to let the positions either hit S/L or T/P? As long as your T/P is greater than your S/L and you win over 50% of the time your account will grow. 100pips has shown the win rate to be much higher than 50% and S/L's can be 1:2 or 1:1.5. Such huge % swings are not for me so I start off with a lower Lot per £1000. I am using 0.02 on 7 pairs, max 8 positions with a £4700 account.
exactly...closing positions prematurely prevents us from doing a thorough post mortem on what is going right and why and perhaps more importantly what is going wrong and why too..i did rough-back of the hand payoff calculations on this system and infact its not 2:1 but an eye watering and extremely pleasing 3.7:1 on a 65% winning and 35 losing trades proposition if you stick to the

a)TP and SL proposition
b)100 pips Pair selection
c)No manual intervention and
d)analyse the demo 1 stats provided by 100pips(my 3.7:1 was done when the demo 1 account hit 110% or so)

the key to riding this wild bronco is risk management or to be more exact lot size mgt as you have put it..
Carpe Diem
  • #2,403
  • Jul 12, 2013 7:41am Jul 12, 2013 7:41am
Quoting Indrek
{quote} After such a big and smooth uptrend I would wait a bit more before trading EURAUD south. One possible confirmation may be if Williams gets overbought again but price does not break the last high. I know that I am often too conservative
Yeah your were on the spot . Iam -130pips atm and Williams just hit overbought, added one position on each pair, lets hope for the best
  • #2,404
  • Jul 12, 2013 7:55am Jul 12, 2013 7:55am
Quoting Liquidsnake
{quote} Yeah your were on the spot . Iam -130pips atm and Williams just hit overbought, added one position on each pair, lets hope for the best


...I have to add the fact that an exhaustion candle is about to form on the H1 chart, R2 resistance pivot line has hold it's resistance and the avarange daily range has been hit and respected . I know it's not part of THIS recipi, but if I fail to bake an amazing cake now....
  • #2,405
  • Jul 12, 2013 8:02am Jul 12, 2013 8:02am
Quoting Liquidsnake
{quote} Yeah your were on the spot . Iam -130pips atm and Williams just hit overbought, added one position on each pair, lets hope for the best
It is not good to trade hope...
  • #2,406
  • Jul 12, 2013 8:06am Jul 12, 2013 8:06am
Quoting Indrek
{quote} It is not good to trade hope...
No its not, its a good trade for the above reason mentioned. its a figure of speach....
  • #2,407
  • Jul 12, 2013 9:09am Jul 12, 2013 9:09am
Quoting Liquidsnake
{quote} No its not, its a good trade for the above reason mentioned. its a figure of speach....
Above mentioned reasons say nothing. Result will show. For me, no short trade before it is topping at H4.
  • #2,408
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:30pm Jul 12, 2013 2:30pm
Quoting Liquidsnake
{quote} No its not, its a good trade for the above reason mentioned. its a figure of speach....
lol you 86 percent down for the week now to me ......... I dunno what to say. Change of career? Edit all you need is 20 pips a day with a decent size account and you make a a good living. I take its a demo account unbelievable.
  • #2,409
  • Jul 13, 2013 11:36am Jul 13, 2013 11:36am
PA / S&D / S&R will tell you everything you need to know about where the trends are heading and their potential stall points. Once a price range is established and there is no clear trend, that should be telling you to close positions / manage SL settings, etc. Once this occurs you are trading on a different strategy - either a channel or bounces off of S&D / S&R levels or the key EMAs. I will watch 200/100/50/20/10 EMAs as these are the key EMAs that PA uses as dynamic S&Rs.

Relying on the MACD when PA is clearly going against you will build a large number of negative entries. The Daily MACD will show you when this occurs so watch for Divergence and Convergence patterns between MACD and PA

Allowing an EA to make the decisions at this time is probably not wise. I have always seen disabling the EA and manually closing positions as a key element of this strategy. Remember that if MACD is negative on the day, it will open up new positions on the H1 Williams as it hits overbought even if the MACD is heading in the opposite direction.

If you have the equity and the intestinal fortitude to allow the EA to do its thing over a long period of time, and you risk tolerance is there, then maybe you can weather through the pull backs / draw downs.

Most trading strategies of this nature are looking for longer trend moves, so a ranging market is going to hurt. Also, another thing to consider, that when a market ranges, the original trend signals tend to be not applicable - you have to play for the breakout and then wait for trend continuation / reversal after several days.

Chart 1 - zoom out on the Day and add horizontal lines on key price reversal areas

Chart 2 - look for MACD stalling / reversing and combine this with the PA - do you have Divergence / Convergence? Does MACD support the trend continuing?

Happy PIP hunting.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s-r levels.png Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: day macd and pa review.png Size: 76 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,410
  • Jul 13, 2013 11:57am Jul 13, 2013 11:57am
Quote
All you need is 20 pips a day with a decent size account and you make a a good living.

Thats exactly the point. And that the reason why so much people fail, give it up or simply have a second job.

You need money to make money. A lot. So much so less the risk..

But thats a known thing. For some..
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  • #2,411
  • Jul 13, 2013 12:06pm Jul 13, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting Britpip7
PA / S&D / S&R will tell you everything you need to know about where the trends are heading and their potential stall points. Once a price range is established and there is no clear trend, that should be telling you to close positions / manage SL settings, etc. Once this occurs you are trading on a different strategy - either a channel or bounces off of S&D / S&R levels or the key EMAs. I will watch 200/100/50/20/10 EMAs as these are the key EMAs that PA uses as dynamic S&Rs. Relying on the MACD when PA is clearly going against you will build a...
Great post Brit.

If you're going to use MACD, you have to pay attention to the slope in relations to PA. I would not trade solely on the cross of zero line. Dr. Elder uses the slope of MACD.
  • #2,412
  • Jul 13, 2013 2:54pm Jul 13, 2013 2:54pm
Quoting MKFXTrader
{quote} Great post Brit. If you're going to use MACD, you have to pay attention to the slope in relations to PA. I would not trade solely on the cross of zero line. Dr. Elder uses the slope of MACD.
Good point!!!
Enter Signature
  • #2,413
  • Edited 8:30am Jul 14, 2013 5:20am | Edited 8:30am
Quoting Toranaga
{quote} Thats exactly the point. And that the reason why so much people fail, give it up or simply have a second job. You need money to make money. A lot. So much so less the risk.. But thats a known thing. For some..
Yes, decent account, risk around 2% and look for 80 to 100 pips (no pun intended) a week that's all is needed. Problem most retail traders have is lack of discipline and patience and enter the market just for the sake of it.

This is the first ea I've used and I do like the idea but the draw down is potentially scary. I've said a few times to run this across multiple pairs you need an institutional size account. Even to run say 5 pairs as I think pippy is doing now you need a decent account. And manual intervention is vital - this is not a set and go.

That's enough time to watch England beat Australia (might regret that!).

Edit: wow not really a cricket fan but what a finish!
  • #2,414
  • Jul 14, 2013 8:38am Jul 14, 2013 8:38am
Quoting claudia1
I've said a few times to run this across multiple pairs you need an institutional size account. Even to run say 5 pairs as I think pippy is doing now you need a decent account. And manual intervention is vital - this is not a set and go.
Main question is that if a trader has an institutional size account then why should he trade like this instead of taking 100 pip a week like you suggested
To my mind, this system gives good ideas for picking up entries but trade management is against any logic. Huge market exposure, very unstable result.
  • #2,415
  • Jul 14, 2013 8:52am Jul 14, 2013 8:52am
Quoting Indrek
{quote} Main question is that if a trader has an institutional size account then why should he trade like this instead of taking 100 pip a week like you suggested To my mind, this system gives good ideas for picking up entries but trade management is against any logic. Huge market exposure, very unstable result.
Yep exactly my point. And I agree it does give ideas but you cannot let it run by itself.
  • #2,416
  • Jul 14, 2013 11:40am Jul 14, 2013 11:40am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Yes, decent account, risk around 2% and look for 80 to 100 pips (no pun intended) a week that's all is needed. Problem most retail traders have is lack of discipline and patience and enter the market just for the sake of it. This is the first ea I've used and I do like the idea but the draw down is potentially scary. I've said a few times to run this across multiple pairs you need an institutional size account. Even to run say 5 pairs as I think pippy is doing now you need a decent account. And manual intervention is vital - this is not...
Agreed - I think your phrase "this is not a set and go" sums up these strategies very well. 100 pips does not run it on full remote and manually intervenes as required. Too many folks looking for the silver bullet and taking losses on their live accounts - these EAs are still in the testing phase folks - be careful.

This is a brilliant strategy for pip farming, but pick your favorite pair (s) and watch your exposure. Total risk on all open trades at any time needs to be below 5%, probably no more than 3%. Consider MM on you open trades once they get to decent profit levels, or run it on a fixed TP. you can make a really good living by specializing on a single pair and getting to know what it does, and its key S/R levels and then adding pairs as you go.

If I can farm 100 + pips consistently each week, I am a happy camper.

Claudia - a German making a cricket comment? that's a first

What a finish to the first test - nice one for the 3 lions. And this follows on from the rugby and of course Wimbledon, not to mention the cycling Sorry Oz - bad sports year for you so far.

Happy pip hunting all.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,417
  • Jul 14, 2013 11:47am Jul 14, 2013 11:47am
Quoting Britpip7
{quote} Agreed - I think your phrase "this is not a set and go" sums up these strategies very well. 100 pips does not run it on full remote and manually intervenes as required. Too many folks looking for the silver bullet and taking losses on their live accounts - these EAs are still in the testing phase folks - be careful. This is a brilliant strategy for pip farming, but pick your favorite pair (s) and watch your exposure. Total risk on all open trades at any time needs to be below 5%, probably no more than 3%. Consider MM on you open trades...
I live in UK most of time and don't really understand cricket lol but was fun to watch the end. Was in the wine bar again!
  • #2,418
  • Jul 14, 2013 12:15pm Jul 14, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} I live in UK most of time and don't really understand cricket lol but was fun to watch the end. Was in the wine bar again!
lol - you don't necessarily have to understand it to enjoy it - wine will help, so they tell me
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,419
  • Jul 14, 2013 2:24pm Jul 14, 2013 2:24pm
Totally agree with you guys

i have been a little caught up in the whole EA thing but never never let it trade by it's self but what has happen after deep personal analysis over the weekend and a few bourbons with Shiraz chasers I have been neglecting my own rules I have been aware from technical point of view that a lot of pairs have been at the limit of their range

I mean look at the DOW Monthly and the Dollar index and then Bernake pushed them over the edge while everyone in this system and TSS was over leveraged My personal account was down 26% last week which is not bad considering my demos running full time on their own are more like 50 to70%

Sorry screen shots not loading for some reason

PS I can't stand cricket like watching paint dry but while on the subject who's ha the rugby 15 a side and 7 a side world cups who is wining all the rowing and who is going to win the Americas cup OH and Scott Dixon won another Indie race not bad for a population of 4 million
I do Good I feel GoodI do Bad I feel Bad
  • #2,420
  • Jul 14, 2013 3:10pm Jul 14, 2013 3:10pm
Quoting Offshore
Totally agree with you guys i have been a little caught up in the whole EA thing but never never let it trade by it's self but what has happen after deep personal analysis over the weekend and a few bourbons with Shiraz chasers I have been neglecting my own rules I have been aware from technical point of view that a lot of pairs have been at the limit of their range I mean look at the DOW Monthly and the Dollar index and then Bernake pushed them over the edge while everyone in this system and TSS was over leveraged My personal account was...
Hoy since when was I guy lol! Have a good week and enjoy the bourbon.
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