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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #25,941
  • Jul 11, 2013 4:55pm Jul 11, 2013 4:55pm
Hi FX35 , Luke and welcome back Happy.
For anyone who is interested specifically in the H4 Macd entries, I have attached last night (9pm my Time NZ ) entry on the Kiwi. There were several trades available at that time but I decided on the Kiwi because :
My Signal Bar was a huge BEEB ( Bearish Engulfing Bar )
Price had smashed thru the 200ma but showed no real intention to hunt down the 365ma
Price also showed no respect for the BRN 0.7900 & closed strongly below it and the 200ma.

The other currencies also offered entries but in most cases there were trouble areas pretty close to entry points so the possibility of reasonable profits were limited ( IMHO)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu_12Jul_Trade.png Size: 74 KB



Just entered TC on the Pound. Don't like that long pin above the 89. Would have preferred price to close strongly above there.
Still , these are the Rules of the H4 - I am determined to take all trades that I see provided I am not duplicating currencies.
Lets see how it progresses

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_trade_12_July.png Size: 53 KB
  • #25,942
  • Jul 11, 2013 5:11pm Jul 11, 2013 5:11pm
For Nausting


Good Morning Nausting,
Great chart post thanks - should help everyone to build confidence . You & Yvon make it look so SIMPLE. I guess thats what you develop after years of practice, practice and more practice

Can you comment on the actual entry candle please - did you wait for the 1st Bullish ( green ) bar to close above the 21 ?? Or does it not affect your decision to enter so long as there is a green bar moving & closing away from your support or T/Line.
Cheers
  • #25,943
  • Jul 11, 2013 6:32pm Jul 11, 2013 6:32pm
Quoting HappyMe
Hi everybody! I'm back and I had a wonderfull time in Iceland...we all need to see this incrideble environment!! Well in the evening hours and in the morning I did a small check...and if possible I start a trade. Well not bad!! In my Holiday I did 3 trades...all in profit for total arround the 125 pips... thanks to Phill Well I learned from those trades...because I only had limited time, I wasn't able to check all the time and the trades were just running without my silly mind ..asking if I was right, wasn't it better to do this or that....etc...etc.....
hi HappyMe, welcome back! Thanks for the comments about patience and sharing what you have experimented du to limited time:very good!
Yvon
  • #25,944
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:02am Jul 12, 2013 3:02am
Quoting binnie
Hi FX35 , Luke and welcome back Happy. For anyone who is interested specifically in the H4 Macd entries, I have attached last night (9pm my Time NZ ) entry on the Kiwi. There were several trades available at that time but I decided on the Kiwi because : My Signal Bar was a huge BEEB ( Bearish Engulfing Bar ) Price had smashed thru the 200ma but showed no real intention to hunt down the 365ma Price also showed no respect for the BRN 0.7900 & closed strongly below it and the 200ma. The other currencies also offered entries but in most cases there...
Thank you for sharing this set-up am enjoying it

concerning the Kiwi if i need to stick to the happyme pdf that gave me the overall clear explanation of this strategy such large signal candle will make the set-up no deal for me because
(1) it make the RR bad
(2) when price move away from 21ma it tend to pull back to 8ma
(3) if the signal candle is not that big may be i could have get in with intention of tp in-between half of 8 and 21 ma.

what am trying to say here is if i saw the set-up live i might missed the trade just because of the reason above.

what do you think about this am enjoying the learning
  • #25,945
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:09am Jul 12, 2013 3:09am
Quoting binnie
Hi FX35 ,
Just entered TC on the Pound. Don't like that long pin above the 89. Would have preferred price to close strongly above there.
Still , these are the Rules of the H4 - I am determined to take all trades that I see provided I am not duplicating currencies.
Lets see how it progresses {image}
on the pound also i might missed the trade beacuse

(1) price move away and tend to pull back to 8ma before further move
(2) price not clearly closed above the 89ma

instead i will be looking for macd sell signal to take the trade if RR is ok to tp half of 8 and 21 ma

pls your opinion on this am learning and willing to continuing learning this strategy
  • #25,946
  • Jul 12, 2013 5:00am Jul 12, 2013 5:00am
Quoting fx35
{quote} Thank you for sharing this set-up am enjoying it concerning the Kiwi if i need to stick to the happyme pdf that gave me the overall clear explanation of this strategy such large signal candle will make the set-up no deal for me because (1) it make the RR bad (2) when price move away from 21ma it tend to pull back to 8ma (3) if the signal candle is not that big may be i could have get in with intention of tp in-between half of 8 and 21 ma. what am trying to say here is if i saw the set-up live i might missed the trade just because of the...
Hi Fx35 - I am more than pleased to share my charts & ideas with anyone who is interested. Just remember that I too have only recently stumbled onto this great thread started by Phillip Nel and while I am really happy with my progress, I still have a wee way to go before I start to really understand the Rythym the way Phillip has described it to us. There is so much information available to us that I had become overwhelmed and a little saturated with the many rules & entry methods. I have decided to concentrate on the H4 Macd signals to establish for myself whether these on their own will provide a reasonable reward overall.
You are correct about taking signals from Large candles - the R-R is usually not acceptable when Stops need to be placed past the Low / High of these huge 4 hour moves. In this trade on the Kiwi , I was simply interested in the fact that the Macd had rolled over to give me a "Sharp" Double Round Top. Perhaps the more senior traders here would have jumped down to the H1 chart to look for a better entry - using a break & close below the BRN 0.79000 would have allowed an entry which was 23 pips better than my H4 entry and would have given me the chance to place a stop loss of only 36 pips. I will be re-reading Phillip's Macd Strategy again a few times to tighten up on the rules concerning entries / exits / trends etc.

Attached Image
  • #25,947
  • Jul 12, 2013 6:00am Jul 12, 2013 6:00am
Quoting fx35
{quote} on the pound also i might missed the trade beacuse (1) price move away and tend to pull back to 8ma before further move (2) price not clearly closed above the 89ma instead i will be looking for macd sell signal to take the trade if RR is ok to tp half of 8 and 21 ma pls your opinion on this am learning and willing to continuing learning this strategy
Yep - I agree. I was a bit doubtful myself when Price did not close more strongly above that 89ma. Still, I took what was in front of me. There was a slight pullback (purple T/line ) which gave me the impression that the bullish move away was a legitimate TC. Bad for me was that the next 2-3 bars had no momentum and my trade was now forming a consolidation. By now, price has started a pullback again and I am happy to cut my loss early because 9.00pm Friday is my cut off for trades and I don't want any trades open over the weekend.
Took a 49 pip loss early - part of the deal for me.
In hindsight looking at the chart 2 candles ago, there was pretty good reason to go Short so your reason to look for a sell on the Macd would have been a winner. Thats the way it is I guess . We each have our own personal insights on what a chart is telling us to do. The position you choose to place your profit targets is your call - there is no set rule for this . Your entry would have given a really low risk so there was plenty of space down to the 8ma which would give you at least 2:1 ( 23stop for 50 profit ) - even more if you were to use the 21 as the target.
Some signals will be good - some will be bad . The plan is to get more positive results than negative.
Anyway - my chart showing my trade closure is attached.
Hope I am helping in some small way.
Have a great weekend everyone.
ROLL ROUND MONDAY

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_12_Jul_end_result_-49.png Size: 81 KB
  • #25,948
  • Jul 12, 2013 6:20am Jul 12, 2013 6:20am
Quoting binnie
{quote} . Hope I am helping in some small way. Have a great weekend everyone. ROLL ROUND MONDAY {image}
sure it help bro thank you so much for the explanation.

am learning.
  • #25,949
  • Jul 12, 2013 8:23am Jul 12, 2013 8:23am
Quoting fx35
{quote} welcome back bro, i must say i really enjoy that your pdf well explained and my trade has change for good. pls keep your trade set-up coming as you take the trade or what you think before the trade i need to learn more on Live trades with you Thanks once again for your help
Hi fx35,
Thanks!! but please look with criticism to my pdf! I'm still learning a lot and try to improve my results!!

With back-testing I try to get the system in my mind...and try to look back my trading results with the backtesting I do!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,950
  • Jul 12, 2013 8:32am Jul 12, 2013 8:32am
Hi everybody,

Last month I back-tested the whole month. Well I think that's to much to manage at one time. So for the future I try to back-test at the end of every week and put the results here on the forum. I hope that that's more manageable!

Here is the back-testing for 1 until 7 July 2013. If I made mistakes...did saw things wrong...or anything else, please let me know!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf July2013_1to7.pdf   715 KB | 538 downloads
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,951
  • Jul 12, 2013 8:53am Jul 12, 2013 8:53am
Quoting HappyMe
Hi everybody, Last month I back-tested the whole month. Well I think that's to much to manage at one time. So for the future I try to back-test at the end of every week and put the results here on the forum. I hope that that's more manageable! Here is the back-testing for 1 until 7 July 2013. If I made mistakes...did saw things wrong...or anything else, please let me know! {image}
Great!
  • #25,952
  • Jul 12, 2013 8:58am Jul 12, 2013 8:58am
@ HappyMe i need to ask this, are you only trade the strategy on EU or what other pairs did you look at
  • #25,953
  • Edited 9:19am Jul 12, 2013 9:08am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting fx35
@ HappyMe i need to ask this, are you only trade the strategy on EU or what other pairs did you look at
Hi FX35,

I only want to focus on the EURUSD and only try to focus on the H4 entries (so no early entries for the moment for me!)

The reasons behind it are the following:
-I really want to manage the system! and do not want to struggle with other market behaviors on other pairs (for me it's already complex with only the EUR/USD
-I try to overcome my problems (entering the trade to early, if in a trade then I want to stop it after it's going to BE or more wurst...getting in a trade and if the price went wrong after some time I don't feel comfortble and just stop the trade with a lost without any reasons!!) => first I need to overcome those issue's instead of risking money on different pairs....with a bad tradingstyle!
-If I can make this to work (ended with profit on the EURUSD...month after month after month) then actually I don't need to try other pairs, why should I?!

After I can manage this on the 4H-chart....then maybe I can also look for 4H-early entries....but also then I need more time which I don't have at the moment!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,954
  • Jul 12, 2013 10:40am Jul 12, 2013 10:40am
@ HappyMe

Great work you are doing on the pdf. i have learn from it. Thank you

i need to raise some issue not clear enough on the deal 2 because i might missed the trade if i trade it Live myself

yes MACD gave the sell signal but looking at the price broke-out both 8 and 21 MA from below and then retest the 21ema with the tail stand on both MA's
that look like No deal to me as the price look like it set to move more upward.
  • #25,955
  • Jul 12, 2013 12:28pm Jul 12, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting fx35
@ HappyMe Great work you are doing on the pdf. i have learn from it. Thank you i need to raise some issue not clear enough on the deal 2 because i might missed the trade if i trade it Live myself yes MACD gave the sell signal but looking at the price broke-out both 8 and 21 MA from below and then retest the 21ema with the tail stand on both MA's that look like No deal to me as the price look like it set to move more upward.
Thanks for replying!!

I put the screenshot to the threat.
well...you have a point there but:
I was following the rule: price break the sma and tested it after it go his direction again....
also the trade would be in de direction of the mood...
Besides that, there is another rule: if price (in a downtrend) comes above the sma21 ...it first tends to go back to the sma's and afterwarts it goes back to the sma89... well the question is ofcourse: "are we already in a downtrend here (is the market in Rhythm)" ?!

I also took a SL untill above the sma200 and the price-level. So I tried to anticipating...and resprecting the sma200 and price-level. it worked out....BUT now when you put the finger on this deal....I'm really asking myself...was I right..with thinking that the market was already in MarketRhythm or was the market in a "short" Consolidation here?!?

Well...I think (after i thought about this ones again) You have a point here!!! It would be a (more?) risky trade I think


Thanks for your response!! That's how we can learn from eachother
Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,956
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:17pm Jul 12, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Thanks for replying!! I put the screenshot to the threat. well...you have a point there but: I was following the rule: price break the sma and tested it after it go his direction again.... also the trade would be in de direction of the mood... Besides that, there is another rule: if price (in a downtrend) comes above the sma21 ...it first tends to go back to the sma's and afterwarts it goes back to the sma89... well the question is ofcourse: "are we already in a downtrend here (is the market in Rhythm)" ?! I also took a SL untill above...
Thanks for your reply
  • #25,957
  • Jul 12, 2013 4:27pm Jul 12, 2013 4:27pm
Awesome work all of you guys ( & gals?? if any LOL ) - thats what our thread is all about. Post ALL of your thoughts & comments AND CHARTS whenever possible. Even if it is only for potential setups. This way , our Supervisers ( Yvon , Nausting and even the Boss himself if we are lucky ) will correct us when we step out of line or better still , confirm what we are thinking.
There is an old saying - The best way of learning is to teach
Hey Happy - great effort with the PDF. I agree with your decision to concentrate on the Euro - pretty near impossible to analyse all major pairs the way you have done for us so far.

Keep it up - I gotta feeling our thread is gaining momentum.

See you on Monday - be safe & enjoy time away from the screens with your families.
  • #25,958
  • Jul 13, 2013 4:45am Jul 13, 2013 4:45am
Hi guys,

I'm ready with backtesting the last week (8 july untill 12July)

Well I need to say this backtesting is given me a lot of confidence....hope this is the way to overcome my trading issue's!!

Have a nice weekend!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 8to12July2013.pdf   672 KB | 365 downloads
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,959
  • Jul 13, 2013 8:04am Jul 13, 2013 8:04am
Quoting binnie
For Nausting Good Morning Nausting, Great chart post thanks - should help everyone to build confidence . You & Yvon make it look so SIMPLE. I guess thats what you develop after years of practice, practice and more practice Can you comment on the actual entry candle please - did you wait for the 1st Bullish ( green ) bar to close above the 21 ?? Or does it not affect your decision to enter so long as there is a green bar moving & closing away from your support or T/Line. Cheers
**************************************************************
Hi brother; I have been meditating on your question and just now I was able to figure out what you mean. And my answer is this: There are barriers every where in the market, yet price keeps moving an fulfilling its destiny in many occasions. This is because at some points we have strong and weak barriers; but the potential of any barrier (strong or weak) is dependent on the potential or strength or force of the price bar encountering it. What I mean is that when the force of price action is higher than a certain barrier, price will break through the barrier. Price break barriers in many ways (price can break through the barrier as if it never existed, or will struggle with it a little bit and yet break it-the behavior of price during the period of struggle is what is called market or price consolidation)
One of the key to my success in this business irrespective of the tensed market weather is that I concentrate on market rhythm alone! I concentrate on aggressive behaviors of price or price action. If you would go and see all my charts, you will discover that it is exactly the basis for all the trades I have taken successfully. When the aggression is established for me that is an alarm of trend reversal, and irrespective of the prevailing barrier (visible or invisible trend lines and pivots or the moving averages like you mentioned the 21ema), price will find its way to my anticipated direction.

Therefore the brief answer to your question is this: I do consider the 21ema and respects it as a barrier for price as price always move away from it many times whenever it gets there, but when my aggression personality is fulfilled, even the 21ema and other moving averages and trend lines have no option that to give way for price in my anticipated direction...I even see it in my spirit how it will play out in my favor before pressing my button...

So when there is a green bar closing away from my support, I simply check to know whether the green bar is supported or backed by any of my aggressive phase or formation; if YES! Then that green bar is a correct or high probability signal and I take it on. I have taken I think more than 250 trades based on this principle I have just revealed about my unique way of trading and all the trades were winners...May God help you to understand what I have just shared in Jesus name!!!
Want to also thank you for your very educative posts and teachings...your chart and analysis encourage me to continue doing the things I do that make me pips in the forex market. Enjoy your weekend and pray for your family always!
  • #25,960
  • Jul 13, 2013 9:20am Jul 13, 2013 9:20am
Quoting HappyMe
Hi guys, I'm ready with backtesting the last week (8 july untill 12July) Well I need to say this backtesting is given me a lot of confidence....hope this is the way to overcome my trading issue's!! Have a nice weekend!! {image}
Am increasing my confidence on this backtesting more & more as well. Thank you bro

I need more clarification on some issues on Deal 3, 4 and 5

Deal 3: is it possible to look further to next macd after the macd signal ?
if no okay
if yes, i might look to take the trade because the candle fully broke up the 8ema & retrace back to it then move away to close above the 8ma with a good double RB. though our chart candle little diff but close to same thing see attched.

Deal 4 & 5: I understood the comment on Deal 4 said "Because of trend trading we actually need BUY signal now" i wish you can throw more light on the comment Deal 5 " Because of trend trading we actually need a SELL signal"
Attached Image
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