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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #7,641
  • Jul 11, 2013 2:15am Jul 11, 2013 2:15am
Quoting Geppy
Hey all! Back from vacation and kinda sorta starting to get caught up with work, the house (still half unpacked), and now dealing with wedding planning. Yup, the proposal went flawlessly... woot woot! I've been trading a bit while gone and this week. Today sure was volatile, but I stayed away from the screens for the most part. I've got some long Geppy that's in the money, but she's been pretty finicky.
Welcome back dude & congrats
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,642
  • Jul 11, 2013 2:18am Jul 11, 2013 2:18am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} ... Outstanding chart display, man....I like
Thanks dude

I've adjusted my TP to 146.6 now and leaving it at that. Not gonna play the small games of scalping 20-40pips anymore! Never liked it but got really involved into it recently - it just takes too much time. The overall picture trade is why I started traded in the first place
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,643
  • Jul 11, 2013 3:52am Jul 11, 2013 3:52am
I've got this wrong more times than I can remember, but it looks a lot like a reversal pattern is setting up, with one more move down to complete. Although what looks like a reversal can also be a continuation.
  • #7,644
  • Jul 11, 2013 5:49am Jul 11, 2013 5:49am
A bit like

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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But the problem is that you don't finally know until it breaks from the top or the bottom of the diamond
  • #7,645
  • Jul 11, 2013 5:57am Jul 11, 2013 5:57am
Quoting Mpt
A bit like {image} But the problem is that you don't finally know until it breaks from the top or the bottom of the diamond
On my charts, if 151.6 gets taken out then I believe the uptrend will resume. At least until 153.5.

However im still looking for 148.6 to be taken out before heading further south to the lower TL on the upward channel.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,646
  • Jul 11, 2013 6:07am Jul 11, 2013 6:07am
Pending G/J sell order @ 150,160 activated.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #7,647
  • Jul 11, 2013 6:19am Jul 11, 2013 6:19am
Quoting EatPIPs
{quote} On my charts, if 151.6 gets taken out then I believe the uptrend will resume. At least until 153.5. However im still looking for 148.6 to be taken out before heading further south to the lower TL on the upward channel.
Agreed, except that 148.6 may not be the bottom - it might be closer to 148.2. If that gets taken out ..............

If it is a reversal as sort of drawn, it will become obvious as to what happens.

This is a pattern of overall indecision ... it can go either way. But then, what's new with this POS. At least it eventually helps you to identify the break up/down points. We probably haven't seen the top yet, but the movements on the right side should technically be somewhat erratic as price gets squashed - as they were on the left side.
  • #7,648
  • Jul 11, 2013 10:43am Jul 11, 2013 10:43am
Quoting EatPIPs
{quote} Thanks dude I've adjusted my TP to 146.6 now and leaving it at that. Not gonna play the small games of scalping 20-40pips anymore! Never liked it but got really involved into it recently - it just takes too much time. The overall picture trade is why I started traded in the first place {image}
Hey dude, look at this chart from an unbiased perspective if you can. The consolidation we're in right now looks A LOT like what we saw not too long ago... then she rocketed higher.

Remember, the overall trend right now is up.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #7,649
  • Jul 11, 2013 11:05am Jul 11, 2013 11:05am
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Hey dude, look at this chart from an unbiased perspective if you can. The consolidation we're in right now looks A LOT like what we saw not too long ago... then she rocketed higher. Remember, the overall trend right now is up.
Hey dude,

Yeah I was expecting some more downward move from here today to be honest but we haven't had it although I can't say it hasn't tried.

Im actually out of my short for a little while now just waiting by the sidelines.

Comparing it to the previous identical move it is more than likely to go back up but like I said I was hoping to see this break the 23.6 today.

But now, really, we need to see a clean cut into 153.2 for the upward to resume I believe.

We are defo in an overall upward trend for sure and this could potentially be the last bottom for the next leg up but in some way I am still looking for it to get to 147ish being going back (whether it does this or not).

Maybe the downward steam is finished on this current run...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh4.png Size: 101 KB
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,650
  • Jul 11, 2013 12:25pm Jul 11, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting EatPIPs
{quote} Hey dude, Yeah I was expecting some more downward move from here today to be honest but we haven't had it although I can't say it hasn't tried. Im actually out of my short for a little while now just waiting by the sidelines. Comparing it to the previous identical move it is more than likely to go back up but like I said I was hoping to see this break the 23.6 today. But now, really, we need to see a clean cut into 153.2 for the upward to resume I believe. We are defo in an overall upward trend for sure and this could potentially be the...
Yep, time will tell... just trying to give both perspectives. Easy to get tunnel vision
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #7,651
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:05pm Jul 11, 2013 1:05pm
@EatPips... joined you on the sidelines, man. We're at the top of the consolidation phase. I'd consider shorting here for a scalp, but not really my style. Probably just wait it out.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #7,652
  • Jul 11, 2013 1:58pm Jul 11, 2013 1:58pm
Yep....a contracting flat for the Elliott Wave loyalists....textbook.....buy the krudd out of a break above the top line.
...
As that would be the famous wave "e" going for the top of the chart. The flats have a wave A B C D E ...then the "e" keeps going, since the low of last two weeks is the start of the upmove possibly, looks like it could be. I'm setting orders all through the downside seeing 147.01 as the reverse-the-outlook scenario. That would be the end of a wave "C", meaning the uptrend would ensue.....It better.!
...
So....order for a long at 150.49....big time....
...
Holding that range trade from the bottom of the flat consolodation wave this morning.

....
...
..
ETA it took off... come on uptrend
  • #7,653
  • Jul 11, 2013 5:10pm Jul 11, 2013 5:10pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Good stuff. I'm holding on to my darlings and see if we can't get higher. Nice trade though!
Yo Yo,,

i see that the majority here is bullish GJ.. i dont think so,, we topp days ago and this is a multi month high already in place and we are onroute to 130's,if not lower !

ALL JPY pairs TOPP !! just a matter of time before we start crashing down. MAX high will be 151.80 for now ( thats if we get that high) .

Sigh,, I am soo ready for the decline to 130's ! already fully booked !

Enjoy!

Gucc..
  • #7,654
  • Jul 11, 2013 6:14pm Jul 11, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting gucc100
{quote} Yo Yo,, i see that the majority here is bullish GJ.. i dont think so,, we topp days ago and this is a multi month high already in place and we are onroute to 130's,if not lower ! ALL JPY pairs TOPP !! just a matter of time before we start crashing down. MAX high will be 151.80 for now ( thats if we get that high) . Sigh,, I am soo ready for the decline to 130's ! already fully booked ! Enjoy! Gucc..

Having looked at your post I did the Fib from the low from sept 2011 (116.822) to the high from May 2013 (156.771) the .618% Fib is 141.510 and the 50% is 136.797....if I did it wrong please let me know
  • #7,655
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:30pm Jul 11, 2013 8:30pm
Yes, take profit when you see it...could be big swings from now on....since the big boys are able to take over the whole world these days...the big banks are now holding oil and aluminum...never seen before.
...
150.82 is the resist.....then 80 more pips are exposed.....sunday has another anouncement from Japan....
  • #7,656
  • Jul 11, 2013 9:52pm Jul 11, 2013 9:52pm
I agree with Guicci, in that 151.5 will likely be the stop on this move, if not just before 151 ish. Then a fallback to the bottom area again.

That's where it gets questionable. Will the possible rising trendline now coming up towards 149 be enough to sustain a high enough bounce?

If so, we could see 153 or above again next week. Or it could even attack 156.5 again in what could possibly look like very much like a rising wedge - one side constrained by it previous support/now resistance and the other side held up by the rising channel trendline.

BUT, if the support is not really there at 148/149, we could be at the start of a decent downtrend.

This is the possible support TL/channel

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ps welcome back guicci.
  • #7,657
  • Jul 11, 2013 10:12pm Jul 11, 2013 10:12pm
If it does fall below the 148 area, it may just confirm as a large h&s, meaning the top will not be revisited.
  • #7,658
  • Jul 11, 2013 11:17pm Jul 11, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting Mpt
I agree with Guicci, in that 151.5 will likely be the stop on this move, if not just before 151 ish. Then a fallback to the bottom area again. That's where it gets questionable. Will the possible rising trendline now coming up towards 149 be enough to sustain a high enough bounce? If so, we could see 153 or above again next week. Or it could even attack 156.5 again in what could possibly look like very much like a rising wedge - one side constrained by it previous support/now resistance and the other side held up by the rising channel trendline....
yo,,

see charts. second day and possible weekly closed below TL. almost there... time ticking

enjoy !
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  • #7,659
  • Edited 2:16am Jul 12, 2013 1:47am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting gucc100
{quote} yo,, see charts. second day and possible weekly closed below TL. almost there... time ticking enjoy ! {image} {image}
Mate, it's just above or below, depending where you draw the line. If it falls TODAY below about 149.6 and fails to hold at 148.77, then I'll agree with you. It's just broken resistance that was at 150.6 and is holding at new support. On Monday, that support will be at 149, which is exactly where my drawn channel TL sits. On Monday, I half expect price to fall back to 149 and then jump.

ps I don't factor in the price at 140.4 to be on the channel TL.
  • #7,660
  • Jul 12, 2013 1:57am Jul 12, 2013 1:57am
Hey dudes

Agreed with most of the above posts. I had a short running a few days ago which I took out yesterday as it just didn't look like it had any power left. Placed a long which I took out this morning.

Would really like to see a clean close below 148.7 and even touch 147 before I would confirm to myself this could drop.

Im still bullish overall in my mind however being where it is, it could turn and resume downwards.

As you can see on the daily chart posted, overall trend in bullish and as Geppy pointed out yesterday that this could be a replay of the previous downward move we had back in Feb to April before it boomed upwards. Therefore my potential areas to look out for are the 146s for the downward support, and if it cracks through that the next major area would be the 138s (we are talking long term here). But if this current zone still holds within the channel and moves up breaking the previous highs then the 157s would be the next point to break on the north bound.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh4.png Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpydaily.png Size: 56 KB
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