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  • #7,621
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:11pm Jul 9, 2013 7:11pm
Quoting smash1820
sorry, but HOW COULD YOU SAY THIS MARKET IS NOT TECHNICAL?! Wtf just was that? Someone please tell me. Also if you could tell me what's wrong with me that would be great too.
chinese data came out at the top of the hour, thatīs my suggestion.
  • #7,622
  • Edited 7:47pm Jul 9, 2013 7:34pm | Edited 7:47pm
Quoting smash1820
sorry, but HOW COULD YOU SAY THIS MARKET IS NOT TECHNICAL?! Wtf just was that? Someone please tell me. Also if you could tell me what's wrong with me that would be great too.
You know full well that news events and all sorts of things drive the market, but technicals are but a representation of all those events. News events are not essentially "fundamentals", but are in essence just that ... news that impacts peoples' expectations, emotions etc etc.

Fundamentals relate to the perceived value of a currency and are driven by that country's economic/political and social standing and also, obviously, by interest rates which may be a reflection of all those things thrown together.

Fundamentals will drive the long term (year/multi year/decadal) value. But people always seem to confuse fundamentals with plain and simple short term news. The yen trading for long periods at 50 or 250 is fundamentals. A USDJPY spike down from 100 to 50 for a few minutes may have nothing whatsoever to do with fundamentals.

My view is that technicals normally rule but they follow fundamentals over the long term.

On other matters, all I know is that GJ fell out of its long term rising trendline/support (whatever you want to call it) and was rejected after trying to break in. This consolidation may be the prelude for another attempt north ... or it may fall below support now about 40 pips below us. I still suspect the former.

But, when you find out what's going on, be sure to tell us!
  • #7,623
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:36pm Jul 9, 2013 7:36pm
Quoting Myo
chinese data came out at the top of the hour, thatīs my suggestion.
Oooh okay. I see that now. I just checked FF and I see that it was a high impact event. I've noticed that FF labels it like that which I think is cool, but I've never paid any attention to it and I guess I need to... at least to the high impact events.

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Thanks. That actually answers a few of the questions I've had. I guess that spike down was triggered by Chinese Trade Balance, which came in 0.7B less than expected, so that makes sense. But I went back in time to the top of the hour and it seems like the down move started a little before the actual top of the hour. Which leads me to believe that either 1) some people had exclusive, privileged, or early access to the information, 2) my broker has a delayed data feed whether intentional or not it would still suck, or 3) the market started to anticipate the 0.7B shortfall in the trade balance ahead of the release.

Whatever the reasons, it seems we are right back into the 150.189 to 150.316 range that I drew earlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback from current levels, but I'll probably hold on tight because we should be header higher soon imo. If we don't have a pullback from current levels, even better.

I am really frustrated with how I've been trading lately and maybe starting to learn the fundamentals (literally, the fundamentals, like this Chinese news release), maybe that would be the difference for me. Thanks for your suggestion.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #7,624
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:49pm Jul 9, 2013 7:49pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} You know full well that news events and all sorts of things drive the market, but technicals are but a representation of all those events. News events are not essentially "fundamentals", but are in essence just that ... news that impacts peoples' expectations, emotions etc etc. Fundamentals relate to the perceived value of a currency and are driven by that country's economic/political and social standing and also, obviously, by interest rates which may be a reflection of all those things thrown together. Fundamentals will drive the long...
Thank you Mpt. That was a perfect answer. I am going to hold on to this information from now on. I've always wondered about this and your answer makes so much sense. I guess the "fundamentals" is something I can no longer avoid.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #7,625
  • Edited 11:32pm Jul 9, 2013 11:14pm | Edited 11:32pm
Not looking overly bullish right now .... but it's still in the channel - daily chart


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Previous high 151.6 and center of rising channel is also 61.8 retrace of whole move from 153. If it ever goes there.
  • #7,626
  • Jul 10, 2013 1:11am Jul 10, 2013 1:11am
Hey dudes

Very important levels have now been taken out IMO. If daily S3 and weekly 23.6 fib gets taken out then 147 would be my next target.

I have had a very bullish opinion even with all the weak bars coming out but I am more bearish on my view now.

I have 148.2 as a strong support level
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,627
  • Jul 10, 2013 1:56am Jul 10, 2013 1:56am
I believe we are still going down. Question is, what is acceptable as the bottom.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LbZt5kf5/
deep RoT is essential for everlasting happyness
  • #7,628
  • Jul 10, 2013 11:54am Jul 10, 2013 11:54am
It's going down to 147 the question is will 147 hold?
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #7,629
  • Jul 10, 2013 11:56am Jul 10, 2013 11:56am
Big Ben speaks in 1 hour - look for Geppy to touch 147......then ?????
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #7,630
  • Jul 10, 2013 12:45pm Jul 10, 2013 12:45pm
Hey dudes

Got a small open short in play - however I am giving up scalping for a while and referring back to the larger time frames for all my trades again as of now as i've never been one for scalping but always tempted to when this pair plays this way.


Anyway, i've made a clearer chart as you can see, we are still currently in an uptrend based on the daily TF however looking at the 4HR and 1HR charts only, since the beginning of May, we have been in a downward move. Whether this is just a big pull back for a bigger move up or not, it is clear we are moving downwards.

Last 4 attempts to break higher have failed, last 3 attempts to go lower have been successful.

How I see it now is that the next leg down on the 4HR needs to break below 147-146.8 and if it makes it to 145.82 then it would be a nice bounce from there IF that level holds. If on the other end it doesn't hold after a small pullback then (a long shot) but we would be looking at the low 140s where I see the next major support holding on the weekly.

If none of the above takes place and we break and close above 153.4 then 157.1 would be my next major resistance before deciding where it goes
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,631
  • Jul 10, 2013 12:48pm Jul 10, 2013 12:48pm
I can see why you guys think 147.00 is a good target, but I'm not so sure if we're going to get there. Bernanke has spoken, it was pretty friggin volatile, but it seems to be settling down a bit now and I am bullish at least in the short-term.


I just started using Fibonnaci in my analysis and it looks like we're right there testing the 50% level. It's a real battle right here, so you have to keep a close eye on it.


Attached Image
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  • #7,632
  • Jul 10, 2013 1:01pm Jul 10, 2013 1:01pm
Ok. Shorts win. I'm done with this ****. I'll be back once I figure things out. It seems I keep doing everything backwards.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #7,633
  • Jul 10, 2013 1:11pm Jul 10, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting smash1820
Ok. Shorts win. I'm done with this ****. I'll be back once I figure things out. It seems I keep doing everything backwards.
hang on in there dude. Patience is your best friend in this game of greed
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,634
  • Jul 10, 2013 6:03pm Jul 10, 2013 6:03pm
Hey all!

Back from vacation and kinda sorta starting to get caught up with work, the house (still half unpacked), and now dealing with wedding planning. Yup, the proposal went flawlessly... woot woot!

I've been trading a bit while gone and this week. Today sure was volatile, but I stayed away from the screens for the most part. I've got some long Geppy that's in the money, but she's been pretty finicky.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #7,635
  • Jul 10, 2013 6:11pm Jul 10, 2013 6:11pm
Quoting Geppy
Hey all! Back from vacation and kinda sorta starting to get caught up with work, the house (still half unpacked), and now dealing with wedding planning. Yup, the proposal went flawlessly... woot woot! I've been trading a bit while gone and this week. Today sure was volatile, but I stayed away from the screens for the most part. I've got some long Geppy that's in the money, but she's been pretty finicky.
Good on you. Congratulations.
  • #7,636
  • Jul 10, 2013 6:17pm Jul 10, 2013 6:17pm
Very good. Best wishes to you Geppy.
  • #7,637
  • Edited 6:58pm Jul 10, 2013 6:24pm | Edited 6:58pm
A few hours ago, I was convinced that GJ was bearish, and that it would, over the next few days, fall below 147 and find final support in the 144 area (daily 200) or thereabouts.

Looking at a GJ chart, you would say it's in a triangle and that, once it falls below 148.7, it will have difficulty getting back in.

BUT, the descending price that LOOKS to be in a wedge is a bit suss. There is support at around 147.9/148.1~3 that may stop it if it falls below the black triangular pattern. If it only retests the black triangle bottom or even just its break out area and fails at that point, then it should turn down to become very bearish.

However, GJ has done this so many times ... it starts out looking like a small bearish triangle, but finds new support and ends up being a bigger triangle.

I think the pink coloured box area is the key.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,638
  • Jul 10, 2013 7:07pm Jul 10, 2013 7:07pm
Thanks guys! Feels funny, but awesome, to be a fiance :-)
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #7,639
  • Jul 10, 2013 7:08pm Jul 10, 2013 7:08pm
Quoting Mpt
A few hours ago, I was convinced that GJ was bearish, and that it would, over the next few days, fall below 147 and find final support in the 144 area (daily 200) or thereabouts. Looking at a GJ chart, you would say it's in a triangle and that, once it falls below 148.7, it will have difficulty getting back in. BUT, the descending price that LOOKS to be in a wedge is a bit suss. There is support at around 147.9/148.1~3 that may stop it if it falls below the black triangular pattern. If it only retests the black triangle bottom or even just its break...
I had shorts earlier this week with TP at 148.80 but I got antsy yesterday and cut them too early. I'm long now from a bit lower, and I think we go higher... gotta stay patient though
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #7,640
  • Jul 10, 2013 7:56pm Jul 10, 2013 7:56pm
Quoting EatPIPs
Hey dudes Got a small open short in play - however I am giving up scalping for a while and referring back to the larger time frames for all my trades again as of now as i've never been one for scalping but always tempted to when this pair plays this way. Anyway, i've made a clearer chart as you can see, we are still currently in an uptrend based on the daily TF however looking at the 4HR and 1HR charts only, since the beginning of May, we have been in a downward move. Whether this is just a big pull back for a bigger move up or not, it...
...
Outstanding chart display, man....I like
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