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  • #32,881
  • Jul 9, 2013 6:45am Jul 9, 2013 6:45am
Quoting Rampage
{quote} There are two levels of supply on the H1 and H4 supply has hot been hit yet H4 should give clues, look at the charts
yeap i know..
will see
  • #32,882
  • Jul 9, 2013 6:50am Jul 9, 2013 6:50am
Its clear on the H1 chart I posted
  • #32,883
  • Jul 9, 2013 6:51am Jul 9, 2013 6:51am
That is if you trade supply and demand
  • #32,884
  • Jul 9, 2013 6:54am Jul 9, 2013 6:54am
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} We were at resistance level The problem is i am not sure if we break above.. If we did then imo this fall is retracment not continuation of downtrend

Since the CNY data releases momentum has been northbound.
Next resistance that looks reasonable to me on 4h is at the 0.9327 liquidity gap, however the residual supply at this level has already been swallowed up to an extent from the 27th-Jun down move.

Likewise 0.9337 level also already been tested but could fade for a short term trade from the level 50pips scale.

I am interested to see if 0.9220-0.9250 is cleared without to much supply coming in.
Nil desperandum
  • #32,885
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:03am Jul 9, 2013 7:03am
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} Since the CNY data releases momentum has been northbound. Next resistance that looks reasonable to me on 4h is at the 0.9327 liquidity gap, however the residual supply at this level has already been swallowed up to an extent from the 27th-Jun down move. Likewise 0.9337 level also already been tested but could fade for a short term trade from the level 50pips scale. I am interested to see if 0.9220-0.9250 is cleared without to much supply coming in.

93.5 Possible or am I daydreaming, trading naked now dont rely on my calls.
  • #32,886
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:27am Jul 9, 2013 7:27am
Quoting Rampage
{quote} 93.5 Possible or am I daydreaming, trading naked now dont rely on my calls.

What I find interesting is AUD failed to break support after the NFP data. I also marked a few levels that jump out at me on the chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh1.png Size: 40 KB
Nil desperandum
  • #32,887
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:34am Jul 9, 2013 7:34am
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} What I find interesting is AUD failed to break support after the NFP data. I also marked a few levels that jump out at me on the chart. {image}

Looking at similar chart
  • #32,888
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:46am Jul 9, 2013 7:46am
Break of .94
  • #32,889
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:52am Jul 9, 2013 7:52am
Eyes off charts boys. Someone is throwing some big ass money on the AUD right now...
  • #32,890
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:58am Jul 9, 2013 7:58am
Quoting tomersror
Eyes off charts boys. Someone is throwing some big ass money on the AUD right now...
How did you draw this conclusion?
  • #32,891
  • Jul 9, 2013 7:59am Jul 9, 2013 7:59am
Thanks for dropping by,dont feel so alone now
  • #32,892
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:04am Jul 9, 2013 8:04am
Thats just the beauty of forex. The AUD goes down from 0.9193 to the 0.917 area to collect more buyers, we saw the same thing yesterday if u check my older posts.
  • #32,893
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:07am Jul 9, 2013 8:07am
Quoting tomersror
Thats just the beauty of forex. The AUD goes down from 0.9193 to the 0.917 area to collect more buyers, we saw the same thing yesterday if u check my older posts.
I understand that part of it, but where do you see "big ass money" coming in.
  • #32,894
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:09am Jul 9, 2013 8:09am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} I understand that part of it, but where do you see "big ass money" coming in.
While most of the major currencies get weak against the dollar only the Australian gets stronger. This means the game is on hardcore between the buyers & sellers and since yesterday we clearly see the heavy sellers are out/taking a break and the buyers are in.
  • #32,895
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:14am Jul 9, 2013 8:14am
Quoting tomersror
Thats just the beauty of forex. The AUD goes down from 0.9193 to the 0.917 area to collect more buyers, we saw the same thing yesterday if u check my older posts.
Haha. works like magic
  • #32,896
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:21am Jul 9, 2013 8:21am
Quoting Rampage
{quote} 93.5 Possible or am I daydreaming, trading naked now dont rely on my calls.
Quoting Rampage
{quote}Break of .94.
I'am with you guys, but lets first break 0.92, ok?
  • #32,897
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:24am Jul 9, 2013 8:24am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} I understand that part of it, but where do you see "big ass money" coming in.

Here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rejection.png Size: 55 KB
  • #32,898
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:27am Jul 9, 2013 8:27am
Quoting Rampage
{quote} Here {image}
A bit lower than that but yes..
  • #32,899
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:28am Jul 9, 2013 8:28am
The forex market has no centralised exchange through which all transactions occur. It is a delocalised market which means any one trader will only be able to see part of the order flow picture at anyone time. Therefore it is not really possible to see the amount and size of money flowing in and out of the market in real time.

Unlike the SPX500 for example in which the exchange is centralised, reasonably accurate volume data is available. This data can be very helpful to traders, an example being unusually high volume spikes that accompany major index sell offs.

Price movements are not determined by the amount of money flow but more by market efficiency. For example during a week long consolidation very high money flows may enter the market but cause little price movement as the market is working efficiently. Buyers find sellers.

Rapid sell offs equally may be catagorised by some sellers (low volume) placing orders and unable to find buyers to fill the bid, market efficiency is low and price drops until bids are filled.

"Big ass money" does not mean big movements, accurate order flow data is not really available to retail traders unless they pay a lot to get it. So size and volume data is not really knowable either
Nil desperandum
  • #32,900
  • Jul 9, 2013 8:33am Jul 9, 2013 8:33am
Quoting vincentprice
The forex market has no centralised exchange through which all transactions occur. It is a delocalised market which means any one trader will only be able to see part of the order flow picture at anyone time. Therefore it is not really possible to see the amount and size of money flowing in and out of the market in real time. Unlike the SPX500 for example in which the exchange is centralised, reasonably accurate volume data is available. This data can be very helpful to traders, an example being unusually high volume spikes that accompany major...
I cant fully agree with u on this one but thats alright.
History told us all that major banks/funds/individuals can effect the currency is seconds after making a call. For example George Soros with the GBP.
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