Do you believe moving average systems work?

hi
also again, if the ff allows the dwg, you can see that the buy signal and exit=close are also shown here as per the stoch 15-3-3-close-simple.

the trick here, if the st(0 NOW)<60 make sell directly- o not wait till the candle to close, sl = 50 pips up
then if st(0 new) <60 and > 40 then directly make sell and do not wait the candle to close, you will loose the opportunity and attacking surprize , while st ( 0 NOW ) will be equal to st (1) .
the the st will be the trend follower till it is reaching zero or less than 20 but do not depend on it as it will give you so many false signals, then wait until the system price is reaching st(0 now ) to touch 40 to above, then do not wait till the candle to close, directly close the deal- exit.

the two ema will give you very near cross if your deals are correct then no panic
the ema are
5 ema, and 13 ema

issue 2

weekly in uptrend
1- we enter long as price closes above both MAs
2- we exit at day 30 candle as no reversal candle within our range 25-30 so we run the trade to the full
3- market dips to the no trade land (between MAs) but price manages to close above both MAs again

what do we do in this case, do we enter long again ?

Hi Smi, thanks for your ideas but do you have any statistics to support this strategy, any test results to give an idea of its profitability in the long run. Thanks

guys I will check your answers tomorrow but please don't tell me there is no answer , imagine you are trading this strategy and now you are faced with the above chart , what would you do and why ?

Moving averages have always been part of my strategy. I do not use moving averages as a strategy but i use it to give me information about the currency pair. It gives me an idea of the short term momentum and which way we are heading. I use it for direction and breakouts.

hi
i am trading this manually since ..... few years back
i will attach 2 different pairs dwgs if the ff accepts to post them, then you can see that the results are similar for any pairs.
also i attach here the last few lines from mt4 st. custom indi showing clearly that it is using ma array
}
if(sumhigh==0.0) MainBuffer=100.0;
else MainBuffer=sumlow/sumhigh*100; // this is an avg standard
i--;
}
//---- last counted bar will be recounted
if(counted_bars>0) counted_bars--;
int limit=Bars-counted_bars;
//---- signal line is simple movimg average
for(i=0; i<limit; i++)
SignalBuffer=iMAOnArray(MainBuffer,Bars,DPeriod,0,MODE_SMA,i); // this is an avg ma on array
//----
return(0);
}
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

i have met mr. samer1970 in dubai before few days back, he left hospital, and he is not allowed by the dr and his family from trading due to his heart conditions, and he is a very kind man, i met him in his house, and he showed me many trials and i was surprised that he is using mine idea but as he does not like indi he did not post it before,
actually i modified my strategy with the moving avg after i understood mathematically the principles as mr. samer explained it to me, and the amazing thing that all of us are waiting the ema to cross to guess the direction while you can guess the direction for more than 70% correct results if you follow this principle.
thank you samer1970
i wish you fast recovery
and i am sure the manager of this thread will be happy to get some of your exp.
i do not know if he is allowed to write but i will write what he told me about the ema

if you open the mt4 , as he said, while he was in house sleeping in bed not allowed to touch the pad, he just was looking for hours to the screen of the mt4 thinking about the great teaam and manager who created this software to get money from the market. by trading and how each broker is changing some aspects in the software to get the maximum benifites from it while the traders will make mistakes such as 0.01lot, 0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05 the 1 lot, if you make a mistake in your mouse, then instead of 0.05 lot , you will make 1 lot then you will lose $28 of the spread, then if ou are not lucky and market goes against you, then you will be panic then you will close this trade by lose for example 7 pips = total loss is $98 and so on...

but this is not the subject, the moving avg is in the trend panel, while the sto is in the osc. panel, but sto is a function of ma array and ma x many types, so why the stoch is in the osc. ,,, it should be in the trend panel.

then mr. samer1970 told e how he built an ea to follow up the trend by the stoc, as it is already ma built func. then he said the trick is simply in the levels, ,,, pure math - simple math.
if you add the two ema 3 x 13 , then you will see that before crossing the direction 70% will be known to you


again thank you samer

i will use his style in expressing the trades for this thread by ma while using hand writings as i become to believe it is better than typing, an more attractive to show the point.

ema 3 x ema 13 will cross after the 60 line is touched in sell and in 40 for buy and the amazing thing also they will cross after the exit signal is triggered.

i think this will answer your question shahroor that where the price will go as a guess.

i use stop loss, while others do not, but in the ma crossing or stoc crossing you must use the stop loss,

for 1 hr chart the best set of indicators are:
ema 6
ema 15
stoch 15-3-3
levels 40 and 60 on stoch chart

however ema 3 and 13 are faster but they are very near to each other and might cause confussion by not seeing the touching or they are touching if the line width is large... so better to use ema and ema 15 ..

the stop loss is 50 pips while the take profit is open to close on early touch of lines 60 or 40
buy signal if st0 is touching 40 line x 1 trade, then second trade if the s0 new is inside levels 40 to 60 to up - exit close down on level 60
vice versa for sell

good luck

ema job is to guide you to the direction and to stop guessing if you use it with the stoc.


good luck

for your question shahrour
where
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1373323635
try to use the stoch 15-3-3 with the ema 5 and 16 then on 1 hr chart you will see the direction confimed by the ema5 and ema15

There are far more accurate ways than moving averages which I do not use now. Elliott Wave and Tom De Mark counts are the way forward imo.

That's nice. Where's the part you omitted where you lose it all after price ranges?

Hi
this is the trick in such system, you must know when and where to close the deal by the stop loss.
if your stop loss is 50 pips, and your trade size is 0.01 then your loss my friend is only 50 x 0.1$ = $5 not more, so even in the worst cases you will not loose your account... this is the trick that you need to learn even in many price ranges.
3 ranges in one day for one pair with the ema and stoc is a logic - it might happen, then your loss is $15 but, if you catch a trend of 200 pips for the same pair, then your profit is 0.1 x 200 = $20

ma is a lagging indi and will kill your account if you do not have proper MM with another signal for buy or sell.

yes i have lost many accounts with so many brokers, do you know why----> because i was very greedy and not because of the system, and i am sure you are the same or you are an agent for a broker. it does not matter, all traders must lose someday but if they are learning from their mistakes the be able to face the losses...

i do hope that you are a trader not an agent for a broker.

thanks for the illustration although it doesn't answer my question
I am not sure if you have read through this thread but please refer to post 9 , the issue with these systems is that they will not survive a ranging market although your winners are bigger , they will not make up for the losses. you have to be more creative to make it work .
stick with us to see how we are going to address this issue as it might help you to develop your system further.

any takers?

the level of participation to answer these specific questions is disappointing, guys don't let me down

Trading has been hard today lol using open range but hey ho

I personally would not trade this. I do not know the pair nor the range BUT IF I HAD TO this is what I would do......................
Look at 1 = inside bar,,, 2 = long tail pushing south,,, 3 = out side bar.... 1 + 3 indecision, it might bounce off MA again or continue going south,,, SO I would short it IF I HAD TO

other things have to be considered in my case, Trading off a weekly timeframe I would say the stop loss would have to be big to cater for the range, So maybe a shorter time frame would be needed ,Like I said I would not trade like this as it is not my way

very interesting thx