Do you believe moving average systems work? | Page 20 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Simple Moving Average Vs. Moving Average? 8 replies

Other peoples trading systems won't work for you 22 replies

Does Moving average actually act as moving S/R ?? 20 replies

Are the best systems also the systems that fail most spectacularly? 55 replies

Systems, Systems and Systems... 1 reply

Attachments: Do you believe moving average systems work?
Exit Attachments

Do you believe moving average systems work?

  • #381
  • Jul 7, 2013 4:36am Jul 7, 2013 4:36am
Quoting sylarfx
If you are trying to exit at the end of the trade,you have been controlled by your greed.Nobody could do it in a long time.What we can do is receive the profit when it get to a scheduled goal.So if we continue talking about how to exit in a better way,the God will laugh at us aloudly.
my friend, did you read my previous posts including post 123, if you did you would realise that the above is based on a true observation because markets more often than not will retest the rejection area sometimes once and sometimes more than once. this is not based on fantasy or greed .

In brief if the market is giving us the opportunity , then why not take it . we also have the end of the range where we have to exit regardless. so profits are protected in the worst case scenario.
  • #382
  • Jul 7, 2013 4:41am Jul 7, 2013 4:41am
this exit strategy is applying support and resistance principles. however we are not trading historical S&R , we trade them as they form . ie strong momentum move for days then strong rejection at a particular level, this is a warning signal , if markets restest that level within our exit range then we exit . if markets keep going the opposite direction then we exit at the end of our range anyway

if you look at the chart again you will see this clearly
Attached Image
  • #383
  • Jul 7, 2013 4:47am Jul 7, 2013 4:47am
of course this is one example of hundreds, just look at your charts and you see them happening all the time.
There is a reason markets retest these levels. big money would want to exit at the best price because they have large amounts to offload therefore they will not keep selling or buying to disadvantage themselves, also there are a lot of orders stacked at or just above/below the level that market makers would want to fill (including breakout traders and profit takers)
  • #384
  • Jul 7, 2013 5:01am Jul 7, 2013 5:01am
in system developments there are stages to go through before its final, I am sure most of you know this already

1- observation :this is the foundation of any system , you observe markets, identify a repetitive pattern that could provide you an edge and develop it
2- in sample testing : at this stage you test your provisional system and rules and come up with a conclusion. the testing period is a chosen historical data ie 2000-2006
3- optimisation: you make changes to your system according to your test results to optimise your profitability, reduce your drawdown and improve your profit factor
4- out of sample testing: you then test your optimised system on a different historical data usually from the end of your last test ie 2006-2013
5- system validation: following the above test we decide whether the system is viable and profitable and proceed to next step
6- Live trading
  • #385
  • Jul 7, 2013 5:03am Jul 7, 2013 5:03am
based on above the current rules are not final,they still has to go through 2 sets of testing to make sure they are robust and will survive different market conditins
  • #386
  • Jul 7, 2013 5:18am Jul 7, 2013 5:18am
Guys just to give you an idea of what sort of outcome to expect with this system

I am developing this system based on my personal circumstances. I have a full time very rewarding job that I wouldn't want to give up even if I had all the money of the world , my job is of humanitarian nature and as you can imagine the rewards are far more than money could buy. On the other hand I am like most humans, would want to live life to the full and provide my family a comfortable life.
so this system will suit you if

1- you have a full time job
2- only have 5-10 min a day to check your charts at EOD
3- you want to avoid the noise of intraday trading
4- Have tolerance to drawdowns
5- looking for long term rewards rather than monthly income
6- you will stick to the rules no matter what

Having said that , I am sure most of you are creative and smart and you could take this system and tweak it to suit your personal goals.
  • #387
  • Jul 7, 2013 7:38am Jul 7, 2013 7:38am
Quoting sylarfx
If you are trying to exit at the end of the trade,you have been controlled by your greed.Nobody could do it in a long time.What we can do is receive the profit when it get to a scheduled goal.So if we continue talking about how to exit in a better way,the God will laugh at us aloudly.
your philosophy is good but I do not think you are getting shahroors point, he is suggesting a method similar to how a pro trader would trade based on history/patterns and big signs like inside bars all of which can suggest the time is right to get out OR enter.... I actually go out for 30 pips which will be compounded and I am more than happy, I do this on japan/uk and us opens, I will trade ibs and I always have my pc on standby to trade us oil when it moves. You are right though that greed should not be an issue but I do not think shahroor is doing this
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #388
  • Jul 7, 2013 7:55am Jul 7, 2013 7:55am
Quoting shahroor
Guys just to give you an idea of what sort of outcome to expect with this system I am developing this system based on my personal circumstances. I have a full time very rewarding job that I wouldn't want to give up even if I had all the money of the world , my job is of humanitarian nature and as you can imagine the rewards are far more than money could buy. On the other hand I am like most humans, would want to live life to the full and provide my family a comfortable life. so this system will suit you if 1- you have a full time job 2- only have...

That's a tough 1, to be honest I wouldn't even consider trying to make a profit off Trading with your time constraints, well not Forex, you'd be better off trading stocks and shares but I understand that requires more start up capital.

Best of luck with it for sure!!

* not saying it's not do able, but forex market are kinda flakey.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #389
  • Jul 7, 2013 7:57am Jul 7, 2013 7:57am
Mr T, hi bud, I am just off out into the SUN, trade well this coming week
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #390
  • Jul 7, 2013 9:33am Jul 7, 2013 9:33am
Quoting billytt
{quote} your philosophy is good but I do not think you are getting shahroors point, he is suggesting a method similar to how a pro trader would trade based on history/patterns and big signs like inside bars all of which can suggest the time is right to get out OR enter.... I actually go out for 30 pips which will be compounded and I am more than happy, I do this on japan/uk and us opens, I will trade ibs and I always have my pc on standby to trade us oil when it moves. You are right though that greed should not be an issue but I do not think shahroor...

For the longer term trading the OP is after, your better off thinking of exits like this :-


I've gone Long say, cause that's what the market suggests
I hold and hold and hold until the market suggests you should be short, then flip sides.

Think D1 and expect 200SL to not be enough, proberley best to build a position aswell, ie multiple orders for the same pair same direction.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #391
  • Jul 7, 2013 9:34am Jul 7, 2013 9:34am
Quoting billytt
Mr T, hi bud, I am just off out into the SUN, trade well this coming week
Damn it's hot out there, wish I was at the beach today Not a lot of time spare to trade at the moment still


But adding cash soon, make it more worthwhile
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #392
  • Jul 7, 2013 11:33am Jul 7, 2013 11:33am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} For the longer term trading the OP is after, your better off thinking of exits like this :- I've gone Long say, cause that's what the market suggests I hold and hold and hold until the market suggests you should be short, then flip sides. Think D1 and expect 200SL to not be enough, proberley best to build a position aswell, ie multiple orders for the same pair same direction.
That looks good and a simple strategy, be good everyone
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #393
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:13pm Jul 7, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} For the longer term trading the OP is after, your better off thinking of exits like this :- I've gone Long say, cause that's what the market suggests I hold and hold and hold until the market suggests you should be short, then flip sides. Think D1 and expect 200SL to not be enough, proberley best to build a position aswell, ie multiple orders for the same pair same direction.
I totally agree with you, Building a position is essential in trend following systems. I will come to this once we finish our exit strategy
  • #394
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:18pm Jul 7, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} Thank you for bringing up this point about multiple timeframes , its indeed very effective way of looking at charts and I see others who built strategies based on this , whether it works in the long run I am not sure
now its the time to talk about multiple timeframes
to define our range we need to look at multiple timeframes
why is that?
well when the weekly chart is in a down trend we dont want to hold a long for longer than necessary but when weekly is in uptrend its definitely the time to hold for longer, same applies for short trades

each currency has a personality and the range might vary between currencies
for the sake of our argument , we will study 2 currencies that are volatile and trend well
EURUSD
GBPUSD
  • #395
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:21pm Jul 7, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} That's a tough 1, to be honest I wouldn't even consider trying to make a profit off Trading with your time constraints, well not Forex, you'd be better off trading stocks and shares but I understand that requires more start up capital. Best of luck with it for sure!! * not saying it's not do able, but forex market are kinda flakey.
appreciate your comment , but I actually made a profit trading with my full time job, its just knowing your time limitation and adjusting your system to suit your circumstances, wish us luck
  • #396
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:23pm Jul 7, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} I totally agree with you, Building a position is essential in trend following systems. I will come to this once we finish our exit strategy

Really ?? that's never happened before, I must be dreaming

Exits wise, and D1 allowing for your time issues, all you can do it allowing for uptrend, aim for Previous high or High + a bit as it's uptrend
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #397
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:24pm Jul 7, 2013 1:24pm
I have a robust system to trade indices but not forex hence my decision to develop this system
  • #398
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:26pm Jul 7, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Really ?? that's never happened before, I must be dreaming Exits wise, and D1 allowing for your time issues, all you can do it allowing for uptrend, aim for Previous high or High + a bit as it's uptrend
what never happened before , someone agreeing with you or me personally !
  • #399
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:37pm Jul 7, 2013 1:37pm
weekly chart :

if price above 50 SMA we are in an uptrend

our range for both currencies will be
25- 30 trading days not including sunday candles for longs
3-5 Trading days not including sundays for shorts

if price below 50 SMA we are in downtrend

our range for both currencies would be
10-15 trading days not including sundays for shorts
3-5 trading days not including sundays for longs
  • #400
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:38pm Jul 7, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting shahroor
in system developments there are stages to go through before its final, I am sure most of you know this already 1- observation :this is the foundation of any system , you observe markets, identify a repetitive pattern that could provide you an edge and develop it 2- in sample testing : at this stage you test your provisional system and rules and come up with a conclusion. the testing period is a chosen historical data ie 2000-2006 3- optimisation: you make changes to your system according to your test results to optimise your profitability, reduce...
0 traders viewing now