Do you believe moving average systems work? | Page 19 | Forex Factory

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Do you believe moving average systems work?

  • #361
  • Jul 5, 2013 12:32pm Jul 5, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting pemully
{quote} MA works guys,but not in the conventional sense....the future is linked to history...all speculation relies on this fact as Livermore once said.
I totally agree with your statement, conventional is so obvious hence it doesn't work . the foundation is there but got to be creative and add your own touch to make it work
  • #362
  • Jul 5, 2013 6:06pm Jul 5, 2013 6:06pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} billytt, you are right about the serious side of this thread and I like the way you look at things , however a bit of friendly chat and fun is welcomed too
big oops, sorry guys but I put that post in the wrong room, apologies. This thread has lots of merit
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #363
  • Jul 5, 2013 6:15pm Jul 5, 2013 6:15pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} billytt don't say that , keep the encouragement going and say we will definitely do it and develop a profitable system
I was not being offensive BUT I have been trading for many years and I have seen a lot of trading methods some good some bad and I honestly admit MA methods are

not that good but that is due to me not looking into them and being biased. After a young girl opened my eyes regarding MA I am more than confident an MA method can be made good

but at present my trial leads me to believe you have to have specific entries and this leads to infrequent trades but I am having a very high win rate. so we shall all work together and get good ideas, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #364
  • Jul 5, 2013 6:23pm Jul 5, 2013 6:23pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Here you go, $500 bucks in 6 mins. {image}
LOl,,I lost at least twice that in approx 2 seconds earlier, Even I can make a mistake, so lesson learned ALWAYS check your figures, the other trades where ok lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #365
  • Jul 5, 2013 6:37pm Jul 5, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting pipy
STRATEGY DEFINITION 1H EMA 1 20 EMA 2 2 TEST PERIOD PERIOD 05/07/2012-05/07/2013 TRADING APPROACH:LONG / SHORT INITIAL CAPITAL 100 K LONG SHORT TOTAL TRADES 194 194 388 WINS 55 53 108 LOSSES 139 139 278 P/L 2.15K "-2,82K" "-468,29" % P/L "2.15" "-2,82" "-0,67" AVG P/L 11,07 "-14,52" "-1,72" TOTAL WINS 23,53k 19,42k 42,95k TOTAL LOSSES 21,38k 22,24k 43,62k % WINNING RATIO 27,84 % LOSING RATIO 71,65 % MAX DD 9,54 % MAX INCREASE 12,53
I showed my girl your figures and she said you trade too much, she only trades the e/u so perhaps she might be wrong. I have been trading e/j on 9/18/30 ema and have only traded a fraction of your number of trades.
I mentioned my girl because it is her forte to trade 2/20 ema, any chance you could put a chart in here, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #366
  • Jul 5, 2013 9:21pm Jul 5, 2013 9:21pm
we have so far identified our entry point and discussed some observations that might help our exit strategy (refer to posts 123, 129)
Now I will discuss the other aspects of our exit strategy

the easy part is Exit Rule 1: exit current position when you get contrary entry signal ie exit long when you get a short signal
this was the non exciting part, yet very important to stick to in our strategy. we cant have a long and a short running at the same time.

Now moving on to the exciting part. I am sure you heard of time based exits before , the benefits of this would be to eliminate greed/prevent losses and allow enough time to take advantage of momentum move. lets call it TBE for ease

On this occasion we are going to combine TBE with our previous observation to take full advantage of the move and aim to exit as close to the high or low as possible.

How we ganna do that?
well our TBE is going to be a range, for illustration purposes assume its between 10-14 days , this means the earliest we can exit is 10 days and the latest is 14 days , why range ? this would give us the opportunity to employ our previous observation on swing highs and lows and exit at the optimal price , on the other hand if things dont play out as planned we have to exit by day 14 and protect our profits

An example will follow
  • #367
  • Jul 5, 2013 11:12pm Jul 5, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I fail to give it away, no chance they will pay me. But if any female >6 wishes to make me a cash offer no matter how small i will accept. Female <6 min £1000 male any, 2mil+ Talking out of 10 not age, 18+ pls.
Open a trade Explorer Turdveyd, show us all your skills. You talk it up but can you actually do it? I have one open... come on I want to see all this knowledge you express in a trade account.

don't give me that crap about not needing to prove anything... if you tell how to do something they have a right to ask you to back it up.

I am looking forward to seeing your trade explorer.
The best indicator is price.
  • #368
  • Jul 6, 2013 2:40am Jul 6, 2013 2:40am
Quoting scfx
{quote} Open a trade Explorer Turdveyd, show us all your skills. You talk it up but can you actually do it? I have one open... come on I want to see all this knowledge you express in a trade account. don't give me that crap about not needing to prove anything... if you tell how to do something they have a right to ask you to back it up. I am looking forward to seeing your trade explorer.
He does not have to prove anything. I watch a thread/s where the guru/s post fancy charts showing the following future moves AND several times they actually show UP and Down at the same time and they have lots of followers lol.

I have an idea how he trades and as it is not my style of trading I do not look into it further but do not knock the guy, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #369
  • Jul 6, 2013 3:04am Jul 6, 2013 3:04am
Hi... Really it works great... I follow moving averages in my trading strategy.... Alone or combine with other indicators...
  • #370
  • Jul 6, 2013 3:20am Jul 6, 2013 3:20am
Quoting pipy
STRATEGY DEFINITION 1H EMA 1 20 EMA 2 2 TEST PERIOD PERIOD 05/07/2012-05/07/2013 TRADING APPROACH:LONG / SHORT INITIAL CAPITAL 100 K LONG SHORT TOTAL TRADES 194 194 388 WINS 55 53 108 LOSSES 139 139 278 P/L 2.15K "-2,82K" "-468,29" % P/L "2.15" "-2,82" "-0,67" AVG P/L 11,07 "-14,52" "-1,72" TOTAL WINS 23,53k 19,42k 42,95k TOTAL LOSSES 21,38k 22,24k 43,62k % WINNING RATIO 27,84 % LOSING RATIO 71,65 % MAX DD 9,54 % MAX INCREASE 12,53
My girl has done homework, I asked her to be honest and answer as if she had really traded the e/j her method and the results are........
from 18th March 2013 trading e/j on 2/20 ema......Total trades 41, win 15, lose 10, 16 trades which were closed then re entered win (like I trade) she went for 30 pips to be classed as a win and 10 of the trades would of made 100+ pips, but like she says she only goes for 10 to 20 pips on e/u so maybe her figures could of been better lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #371
  • Jul 6, 2013 3:43am Jul 6, 2013 3:43am
I just realised that my girl is/was a level trader using her method, that's how I trade once I am in a trade. She doesn't actually speak to me about it lol (typical pro trader)
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #372
  • Jul 6, 2013 6:24am Jul 6, 2013 6:24am
GUYs I have had enough of these silly arguments , if I see this happening again you will be banned from posting here without a notice.
there is a very important update in post 1, please read it
  • #373
  • Jul 6, 2013 7:46am Jul 6, 2013 7:46am
Quoting shahroor
GUYs I have had enough of these silly arguments , if I see this happening again you will be banned from posting here without a notice. there is a very important update in post 1, please read it
Well said,
and now I post chart 1 hour e/u (sorry it is not e/j) this is one of my girls last trades she did using 2/20 ema hour chart method...
A = hour candle closing below the 20 ema,,,,,,,B = entry,,,,,, C = several hours had passed since last cross so this is an ideal entry she said.
she made 12 pips but IF she had left it look how it dropped, she was using 20 pip stop loss but obviously got out without it being busted, I can dig out another trade she did using a level she re entered on after getting out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0607A.PNG Size: 38 KB
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #374
  • Jul 6, 2013 1:53pm Jul 6, 2013 1:53pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting billytt
{quote} I watch a thread/s where the guru/s post fancy charts showing the following future moves AND several times they actually show UP and Down at the same time and they have lots of followers lol.

Yes billy I don't get how these so called experts could get by doing this absurd gesture either
I laugh and roll on the floor my self every time whenever I see a so called guru pick both
trajectories as the possible outcome...it is truly hilarious because anybody can say price is
either going to go up or down...like come on give me a break...lol


I must say billy I never saw a chart with a 2/20 ema setup on it and as the pro trader herself
which is your 9 yr old daughter points out it is indeed a setup that looks to have some legs
also billy I do enjoy reading your posts because you do show that you know what you're talking about
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #375
  • Jul 6, 2013 3:17pm Jul 6, 2013 3:17pm
They work in certain market conditions, just like any other indicator..knowing when to use them is what's important IMO
  • #376
  • Jul 6, 2013 7:00pm Jul 6, 2013 7:00pm
Quoting shahroor
we have so far identified our entry point and discussed some observations that might help our exit strategy (refer to posts 123, 129) Now I will discuss the other aspects of our exit strategy the easy part is Exit Rule 1: exit current position when you get contrary entry signal ie exit long when you get a short signal this was the non exciting part, yet very important to stick to in our strategy. we cant have a long and a short running at the same time. Now moving on to the exciting part. I am sure you heard of time based exits before , the benefits...
here is an example
1- we enter long as price closes above MA 50 and 20
2- this is the first reversal candle after a strong momentum move, this level now is a resistance level ie profit target
Day 10 is our earliest exit, Day 14 is our latest
3- represents day 13 candle which is a restest of our resistance level where we could have exited intraday and achieved a better exit price

This is the principle behind our exit strategy, some might say its easy when you look at things after event, thats fine but thats exactly what we will be looking for in live trading. our day 14 compulsory exit will protect our profit if market decides not to restest the previous rejection area , you will be surprised how many times the market does retrace to that rejection area in live trading.

Having said all of that , there is still more to add to our exit strategy . please understand that the suggested range above is only an example and its by no means the actual figures to use for this strategy , more to follow on this
Attached Image
  • #377
  • Jul 6, 2013 7:50pm Jul 6, 2013 7:50pm
I use it a as line i the sand, If price starts to go over 100 ema i look for buy setups and the opposite for sell setups.
  • #378
  • Jul 6, 2013 9:17pm Jul 6, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting Owl
{quote} Yes billy I don't get how these so called experts could get by doing this absurd gesture either I laugh and roll on the floor my self every time whenever I see a so called guru pick both trajectories as the possible outcome...it is truly hilarious because anybody can say price is either going to go up or down...like come on give me a break...lol I must say billy I never saw a chart with a 2/20 ema setup on it and as the pro trader herself which is your 9 yr old daughter points out it is indeed a setup that looks to have some legs also billy...
I know what I am talking about ???? lol. I cocked up big time yesterday with a short entry on NFP news release, just a simple case of not concentrating. My girl talks about rainbows but she says that looking at my charts, I use 9/18/30 and trying out a method. and I am only doing it because of my girl lol. I am still an open range breakout and inside bar trader, but this MA is looking good, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #379
  • Jul 6, 2013 9:32pm Jul 6, 2013 9:32pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} here is an example 1- we enter long as price closes above MA 50 and 20 2- this is the first reversal candle after a strong momentum move, this level now is a resistance level ie profit target Day 10 is our earliest exit, Day 14 is our latest 3- represents day 13 candle which is a restest of our resistance level where we could have exited intraday and achieved a better exit price This is the principle behind our exit strategy, some might say its easy when you look at things after event, thats fine but thats exactly what we will be looking...
Attached Image
good info shahroor, what gives this extra credibility is the inside bars I marked, several ibs together normally means it will go big time when it does move,i am not sure on the long which would of triggered as I do not know the scale but these ibs could of been traded aggressively.
I know we are speaking MA but I cannot help speaking about ibs, It all helps
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #380
  • Jul 6, 2013 9:52pm Jul 6, 2013 9:52pm
If you are trying to exit at the end of the trade,you have been controlled by your greed.Nobody could do it in a long time.What we can do is receive the profit when it get to a scheduled goal.So if we continue talking about how to exit in a better way,the God will laugh at us aloudly.
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