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  • #981
  • Jul 5, 2013 2:34am Jul 5, 2013 2:34am
Quoting The Fool
speaking of bubbles....NFLX P/E 541...? Sep $125 puts are $0.97... {image}
on my radar, may wait until earnings are released 24 july
  • #982
  • Jul 5, 2013 3:31am Jul 5, 2013 3:31am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} on my radar, may wait until earnings are released 24 july
sure, let em run it up some more....

I bet TSLA is due for a post-earnings takedown, too...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #983
  • Jul 5, 2013 4:36am Jul 5, 2013 4:36am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} sure, let em run it up some more.... I bet TSLA is due for a post-earnings takedown, too...
Ill take a look, first big one is next friday JPM earnings release
  • #984
  • Jul 5, 2013 4:39am Jul 5, 2013 4:39am
stll have my to GDX put options, $22.50 and the $23.50 open since tue/wed, hope to close with profit later if gold keeps falling
  • #985
  • Jul 5, 2013 5:43am Jul 5, 2013 5:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'm limited somewhat in how I can trade stock/index options - can't sell calls, for instance. Also, I'm up against the pattern daytrading limitations on some of my accounts because they are under the $25k minimum. So, often I will just simply long call or put because of these limitations. That will change over time. Anyway, I've explained all this before so this will be the last time I do so in the thread. Bottom line, I need to make money. In some instances a simple long call/put may be the best way to do that and I prolly won't ever look...
Some brokers do allow their clients almost any type of option spreads in their IRA as long as they are cash secured. Perhaps you could change your broker if that’s a possibility. (Selling a naked Call has unlimited risk, you wouldn’t want to do that anyway.)

Once you become more proficient in options, then you can bypass PTD rule by morphing or locking in your option positions so you can carry the position till next day, and then exit the original position following day. It wouldn’t count as a daytrade. This way you could be actually taking money off the table or massaging the position to your changing market view. But if buying Calls and Puts works for you, then there is no reason to mess around with success and introducing more complexity into what works for yuo

Wishing you all the best
  • #986
  • Jul 5, 2013 5:48am Jul 5, 2013 5:48am
Quoting mister_doodi
I would also recommend vertical spreads for beginners. If you understand verticals you can branch out to IC, Butterflies, and so on. My personal favorite is selling selling strangles with with 4+ SD on high IV underlying. My current trade is going to generate return on margin of 90% in 6.5 months or about 240% annualized. Strangles are direction neutral trades but it involves tinkering and leaving yourself with enough margin to ride through tough times.

If you sell a strangles you have huge unlimited risk on both sides, plus it will tie up lots of your margin. If you widen the strikes on your strangle to ride through the tough times, then the premium you receive will be very small, plus there is a trade with your number on it, and one day can it can take you out business.

Attached Image


I’d highly recommend you that you buy your wings for protection and trade Iron Condors instead of selling Strangles.


Attached Image



Wishing you all the best
  • #987
  • Edited 9:05am Jul 5, 2013 8:20am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting The Fool
My NFP prediction: 204,000. ADP shows the way @188k private earlier this week, local/State govt jobs tick up imo based on brightening housing market in many parts of the country & delays in sequester's hits on Fed jobs, plus seasonal uptick generally.
195k + 70k revision last month. 10 yr at 2.70, up 16 bps on the report, S&P futures were up 16 but have fallen way off. Gold off $28.

So, where will the S&P be at Friday's close? Has the taper fear been priced in enough? Do you fade the bond yield surge? - I will be looking at TLT.

Oil at $102.38, I will be watching USO to fade that, too.

....tried a fade of the yield surge, with Aug 17 TLT $110 calls, bought for $1.05 when TLT was $107.14. Got to be a safe haven somewhere, good ole UST's....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #988
  • Jul 5, 2013 2:37pm Jul 5, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} GDX closed higher today at $24.18, my option is now worth 50% less at 3c so i decided to roll up to buy the $23.50 put strike for 11c just before the early close GDX Jul 2013 23.500 put (GDX130705P00023500) -OPR 0.11 {image} 0.16(59.26%) 12:58PM EDT
closed my trades 45 minutes ago on GDX.

FIRST THE LOSS GDX 22.50 put i had bought for 6c on tuesday, this will expire worthless

also bought the 23.50 put on wednesday for 11c and closed it today for 62c so overall profited well

GDX Jul 2013 23.500 put (GDX130705P00023500)
-OPR
0.62http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.51(463.64%) 2:55PM EDT
  • #989
  • Jul 5, 2013 2:40pm Jul 5, 2013 2:40pm
GDX is now trading at 23.05, it went low as 22.79

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
23.05 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 1.13(4.67%) 3:39PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #990
  • Jul 5, 2013 2:46pm Jul 5, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} well TLT closed at $110.01 and i hesitated taking a put trade and missed the opportunity
wasted opportunity!!! TLT dropped like a rock

iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT)
-NYSEArca
106.61 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 3.40(3.09%) 3:44PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #991
  • Jul 5, 2013 2:53pm Jul 5, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} wasted opportunity!!! TLT dropped like a rock iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) -NYSEArca 106.61 {image} 3.40(3.09%) 3:44PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
looks like the fear of the QE taper has been priced in now, but we will see what happens next week. I'm set contrarian in most of my options trades, looking to fade the oil move, too, but will wait til next week for a USO put entry
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #992
  • Jul 5, 2013 3:54pm Jul 5, 2013 3:54pm
be merciful SLW! please go up until my calls expire (:worships the market)
  • #993
  • Jul 5, 2013 5:33pm Jul 5, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting Starry
be merciful SLW! please go up until my calls expire (:worships the market)
I dunno mon, it be lookin pretty grim for da pm's....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #994
  • Jul 5, 2013 6:07pm Jul 5, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting Starry
be merciful SLW! please go up until my calls expire (:worships the market)
slw may struggle to get over $20 but if it does it has strong resistance all the way up to $22
  • #995
  • Edited 4:12am Jul 6, 2013 4:10am | Edited 4:12am
Quoting Cecil Gee
T.F. IN THE MOST ACTIVE options someone has taking a big position on FXE $116 september puts, is the euro heading below 118 by september?
Everyone have charts showing euro down to 1.2000 area after fridays price action

T.F. There's a way to read those active options knowing if its being bought or sold, not 100% but relative high probability

those options were bought on tuesday july 2
  • #996
  • Edited 1:46pm Jul 6, 2013 12:55pm | Edited 1:46pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} T.F. There's a way to read those active options knowing if its being bought or sold, not 100% but relative high probability
Please feel free to clue me into your method. Big volumes in Friday's most actives are in EEM, check the Dec $41 call also the Dec $44 calls, both over 220k. I don't know when those were bought/sold though.

Call options are cheap in EEM all the way out past 2014. The typical prognosis on em stocks is that they benefitted heavily from easy money policies in the US and now that tighter money is on the way they have dropped hard. But EEM traded at its peak before the 2008 meltdown...

If there's going to be huge outlows from bonds continuing all that money will need to go somewhere...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #997
  • Jul 6, 2013 2:46pm Jul 6, 2013 2:46pm
UPDATE: finaly today I recive my excersise on my LONG call position with 4.7 +
Big profit in both legs of my RUT 990/1000 spread for credit.
Short Leg close mid-week and keep open long leg for big UP friday.

Good weekend for all- See monday.
  • #998
  • Jul 7, 2013 11:18am Jul 7, 2013 11:18am
I have an eye on this potential trade. I'm predicting it will pullback to $44 after going up abit (forming a 3-swing retest pattern) and then go to $51.50.


It then looks like it might start a bear trend.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GNC.png Size: 126 KB
  • #999
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:25pm Jul 7, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting Starry
I have an eye on this potential trade. I'm predicting it will pullback to $44 after going up abit (forming a 3-swing retest pattern) and then go to $51.50. It then looks like it might start a bear trend. {image}
pretty good moves on GNC, but I don't like the $2.50 cuts on the options....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,000
  • Jul 7, 2013 1:27pm Jul 7, 2013 1:27pm
I dont think the current swing in SLW is over with, so I think it has a good chance of going to 22.20, which is the next confluence point, before the july 20th expiration, maybe on the 15th. We'll see.... I've seen a sort-of similar swing trading tick charts on the eurusd, and it accelerated up nearing the end. fingers crossed

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SLW.png Size: 150 KB
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