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AUD/USD

  • #60,061
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:29pm Jul 4, 2013 2:29pm
Quoting xandi
{quote} are you a scalper?
No, the spreads basically make it impossible to scalp ATM vol strats. unless you open and close with a day (but need huge moves >1% so rare).
  • #60,062
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:33pm Jul 4, 2013 2:33pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} No, the spreads basically make it impossible to scalp ATM vol strats. unless you open and close with a day (but need huge moves >1% so rare).
ok, swinger of price action?? you need skills, bro!!
  • #60,063
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:36pm Jul 4, 2013 2:36pm
Quoting xandi
{quote} ok, swinger of price action?? you need skills, bro!!
Had a few naked longs in AUD which have been ok in swing terms, but right now I'm not trading price action not enough value, thats why im selling vol, likely consolidation
  • #60,064
  • Edited 2:54pm Jul 4, 2013 2:42pm | Edited 2:54pm
I started trading with just 15 Euros and now my Equity is 59 . So, I earned above 290%. That's why my explorer shows this. I make money and lots visible to public now. You can see
I am just a learner yet. Hopefully after Eid I will deposit and trade with some big money. I am learning trading from Tradimo

Quoting vincentprice
{quote} I will give you a vouch if you would be kind enough to explain how your trade explorer live account gives a 100% hit rate over 88 trades. . . . . regards VP
  • #60,065
  • Jul 4, 2013 3:08pm Jul 4, 2013 3:08pm
Quoting iahmedz
I started trading with just 15 Euros and now my Equity is 59 . So, I earned above 290%. That's why my explorer shows this. I make money and lots visible to public now. You can see I am just a learner yet. Hopefully after Eid I will deposit and trade with some big money. I am learning trading from Tradimo {quote}
What I find quiet mysterious about your explorer is that of 88 trades there are 88 winners and no loosing positions, how is that possible?
Nil desperandum
  • #60,066
  • Jul 4, 2013 3:20pm Jul 4, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} What I find quiet mysterious about your explorer is that of 88 trades there are 88 winners and no loosing positions, how is that possible?
EA working, having multiple small positions, on a trend pair...I think...
  • #60,067
  • Jul 4, 2013 3:35pm Jul 4, 2013 3:35pm
All I can say is just it is before you. I will close trade on loss but that loss will be around 200 pips away if I don't hedge it before .
Always follow trend, you will not loose, and don't be panic in closing trade too soon if it is on loss. That's the rule I am following and my trades don't go in wrong direction for 200 pips away yet. But whenever they will go you will see loosing trade on my exlploror too.

Quoting vincentprice
{quote} What I find quiet mysterious about your explorer is that of 88 trades there are 88 winners and no loosing positions, how is that possible?
  • #60,068
  • Jul 4, 2013 3:38pm Jul 4, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting iahmedz
All I can say is just it is before you. I will close trade on loss but that loss will be around 200 pips away if I didn't hedge it before . Always follow trend, you will not loose, and don't be panic in closing trade too soon if it is on loss. That's the rule I am following and my trades doesn't go in wrong direction for 200 pips away yet. But whenever they will go you will see loosing trade on my exlploror too. {quote}
yap, you only have to find when trend stop!!!
  • #60,069
  • Jul 4, 2013 3:42pm Jul 4, 2013 3:42pm
exactly... and till then you should avoid overtrading. But yet there's lot of space in learning.
Quoting xandi
{quote} yap, you only have to find when trend stop!!!
  • #60,070
  • Jul 4, 2013 3:49pm Jul 4, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting iahmedz
exactly... and till then you should avoid overtrading. But yet there's lot of space in learning. {quote}
yap, make your plan and follow it strictly!! don´t get affected by emotions, have everything planned best advice you can receive
  • #60,071
  • Jul 4, 2013 6:41pm Jul 4, 2013 6:41pm
JPMorgan was the institution shorting silver at $40-50 when everyone was screaming buy gold/silver. In fact some were even buying silver to break JPMorgan. Looks like it didn't work.

Another international investment bank, Goldman Sachs, is also fairly bearish about the Australian dollar. Their analysts recently revised down their forecasts, and now expect the dollar to fall to 90 US cents next year and 85 US cents in 2015.


In contrast, Commonwealth Bank analysts expect the dollar to bounce back up to 96 US cents by the end of this year, and trade at about 95 US cents by the middle of 2014.



Westpac forecasts the dollar to also trade about 96 US cents by year's end before falling to 93 US cents by the middle of next year.



The most bullish strategists are at JPMorgan. The investment bank forecasts the dollar to return to parity by the end of 2013, and lift further to 110 US cents by mid-2014.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/ma...#ixzz2Y89aMVlb


  • #60,072
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:24pm Jul 4, 2013 7:24pm
Quoting Macdon
JPMorgan was the institution shorting silver at $40-50 when everyone was screaming buy gold/silver. In fact some were even buying silver to break JPMorgan. Looks like it didn't work. Another international investment bank, Goldman Sachs, is also fairly bearish about the Australian dollar. Their analysts recently revised down their forecasts, and now expect the dollar to fall to 90 US cents next year and 85 US cents in 2015. In contrast, Commonwealth Bank analysts expect the dollar to bounce back up to 96 US cents by the end of this year, and trade...
will JP Morgan be the most accurate forecaster?
possible IMO..
looking at daily chart from 2007 to current..
we are in uptrend .. price retraced 61.8% in 2008 and then up to 1.10 completing ABCD pattern..
and minor retrace last year 38.2% but we did not make higher high..
maybe JP morgan expect price hit 79c by September, which is 61.8% retracement from 2008 low to 1.10 and AUD continue with uptrend move.. hitting parity by end of Dec and 1.10 by mid 2014..
  • #60,073
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:27pm Jul 4, 2013 7:27pm
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} will JP Morgan be the most accurate forecaster? possible IMO.. looking at daily chart from 2007 to current.. we are in uptrend .. price retraced 61.8% in 2008 and then up to 1.10 completing ABCD pattern.. and minor retrace last year 38.2% but we did not make higher high.. maybe JP morgan expect price hit 79c by September, which is 61.8% retracement from 2008 low to 1.10 and AUD continue with uptrend move.. hitting parity by end of Dec and 1.10 by mid 2014..
Possible. Place order .90 buy

.905 buy.. NFP will make some noise
  • #60,074
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:46pm Jul 4, 2013 8:46pm

Quoting HelloOz
{quote} will JP Morgan be the most accurate forecaster? possible IMO.. looking at daily chart from 2007 to current.. we are in uptrend .. price retraced 61.8% in 2008 and then up to 1.10 completing ABCD pattern.. and minor retrace last year 38.2% but we did not make higher high.. maybe JP morgan expect price hit 79c by September, which is 61.8% retracement from 2008 low to 1.10 and AUD continue with uptrend move.. hitting parity by end of Dec and 1.10 by mid 2014..

Some trader here on FF said that he expects the AUDUSD to retrace to 0.84 and then shoot off to 1.10 and beyond.



Fundamentally there is no reason why the AUD should be low.

  1. We have a robust economy that is not in dire straights as UK-Europe and USA
    are.
  2. Asia
    is still developing and has a long way to go so they still require our minerals.
  3. The AU property market is buoyed by slow immigration of skilled immigrants.
  4. Overseas purchases of vast tracts of AU farmland keep land prices buoyed as well.
  5. AU banks are amongst the safest in the world and they have a lot of their assets in the robust AU property market.
  6. Interest rates are the highest in the developed world.

  • #60,075
  • Jul 4, 2013 9:04pm Jul 4, 2013 9:04pm
Quoting Macdon
{quote}Some trader here on FF said that he expects the AUDUSD to retrace to 0.84 and then shoot off to 1.10 and beyond. Fundamentally there is no reason why the AUD should be low. We have a robust economy that is not in dire straights as UK-Europe and USA are. Asia is still developing and has a long way to go so they still require our minerals. The AU property market is buoyed by slow immigration of skilled immigrants. Overseas purchases of vast tracts of AU farmland keep land prices buoyed as well. AU banks are amongst the safest in the world and...
I really don't see why any of that is relevant.

Point 1 doesn't mean anything since AU is such a small economy highly dependant on its export market in the whole scheme of things. Once the big players go, so does Australia.
Point 2, once again, China is beginning to withdraw on its rate of expansion and it has massive economic structural problem it needs to work out. Minerals are always going to flow but its the velocity in which they are traded which will determine AUs near future.
Point 3 and 4 are contradictory: slow immigration buoys market, fast overseas purchases buoys markets - make up your mind.
Point 5 AU property is only robust if the stays at these buoyed up prices. If you can't make up your mind on what is driving your point 3/4 then this one is also moot.
Point 6 Future Interest rate perceptions and expectations, not interest rates themselves help drive FX
  • #60,076
  • Jul 4, 2013 9:10pm Jul 4, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting Macdon
{quote}Some trader here on FF said that he expects the AUDUSD to retrace to 0.84 and then shoot off to 1.10 and beyond. Fundamentally there is no reason why the AUD should be low. We have a robust economy that is not in dire straights as UK-Europe and USA are. Asia is still developing and has a long way to go so they still require our minerals. The AU property market is buoyed by slow immigration of skilled immigrants. Overseas purchases of vast tracts of AU farmland keep land prices buoyed as well. AU banks are amongst the safest in the world and...

you must have truly rosy glasses on

it is very geared economy that can go either way quick and far. that's why AUD is such a nice trading vehicle.
  • #60,077
  • Jul 4, 2013 9:14pm Jul 4, 2013 9:14pm
miners such as FMG BHP RIO are loving low AUD.. lower AUD means pay rise..
  • #60,078
  • Jul 4, 2013 9:32pm Jul 4, 2013 9:32pm
AUS_ I think day is tough But I hope always the best and AUS Go up side
next week AUS _ Should touch 9500 and then DIP and again Ready for Long
so Trade Daily and try to place TP so that u can skip and gain Green pips
AUS _ never Hurt you if you trade with sens and on right point
only whom people will Hurt who trade in Mid with out and direction
Trade on right point and AUS _ will make you Happy like me
AUS_
  • #60,079
  • Jul 4, 2013 10:23pm Jul 4, 2013 10:23pm
The Aussie is definitely falling, amid the increased bullish strength of the USD and NFP due later, combined with the looming Australian recession, we may see the pair do a breaking bad further down.
Right now we can see a reaction on the falling trend line at a former S/R, signalling the pair is more likely to maintain the bearish trend. Initial profit targets should be at the former low, with a tight SL just above the trend line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_USD.JPG Size: 92 KB


Happy Trading fellows!
  • #60,080
  • Jul 4, 2013 10:31pm Jul 4, 2013 10:31pm
Quoting Danny Maina
The Aussie is definitely falling, amid the increased bullish strength of the USD and NFP due later, combined with the looming Australian recession, we may see the pair do a breaking bad further down. Right now we can see a reaction on the falling trend line at a former S/R, signalling the pair is more likely to maintain the bearish trend. Initial profit targets should be at the former low, with a tight SL just above the trend line. {image} Happy Trading fellows!

agree
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