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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #7,541
  • Jul 4, 2013 1:15pm Jul 4, 2013 1:15pm
Look at these TICK readings, they are going insane!!! I haven't seen this before... What the hell is going on?!?!

Attached Image


... Maybe the big boys are loading up here
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  • #7,542
  • Jul 4, 2013 1:52pm Jul 4, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting smash1820
Look at these TICK readings, they are going insane!!! I haven't seen this before... What the hell is going on?!?! {image} ... Maybe the big boys are loading up here

Is that the minute chart? Looks like a GJ tick chart on a normal day lol.

This small "ranging" period in the last few hours is needed IMO. It has also given enough time for the crossover of the %MA to happen so again, IMO if this pair doesn't move north within the next few hours, end of week may end in this zone.
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  • #7,543
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:02pm Jul 4, 2013 2:02pm
This is NASTY... Are we actually selling off here or just a fakeout to scare out all of the longs??? Whatever it is they got me... gosh darnit! Definitely sick nasty.

It is not normal to have a 12+ pip spread.

Btw, that is a tick chart. Probably much less than a minute. Ticks are trades.
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  • #7,544
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:49pm Jul 4, 2013 2:49pm
Any thoughts??? C'mon guys, I know I'm not the only one whose trading...

I really am not liking the price action, but my support level at 150.611 seems to be holding thus far. The 15M and 1H charts remain very ugly -- as well as the 4H and Daily. I just wanted to capture a small bounce before we sell off again, but now I'm wondering if that's asking for too much?
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  • #7,545
  • Jul 4, 2013 2:57pm Jul 4, 2013 2:57pm
I wouldn't stay on long G/J,
rather try to sell from local highs / daily highs and hold...

EDIT:
(but thats me, I don't have a big bank account for long G/J if you get me )

or

wait until monday, tomorrow could be a BIGGER sell for G/J
  • #7,546
  • Jul 4, 2013 3:12pm Jul 4, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting openyoureyes
I wouldn't stay on long G/J, rather try to sell from local highs / daily highs and hold... EDIT: (but thats me, I don't have a big bank account for long G/J if you get me ) or wait until monday, tomorrow could be a BIGGER sell for G/J
Thanks for your input. That seems like wise advice, and I think I will do that... I just want to see if we can break above this range first.
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  • #7,547
  • Jul 4, 2013 5:10pm Jul 4, 2013 5:10pm
I haven't read the last three pages, did you guys notice the decoupling yesterday between the GBP/JPY and it's brother's gbp/usd and usd/jpy... It's been glued to the usd/jpy....except for that one week-long period 2 months ago....where it mysteriously starts following the gbp/usd, instead. I make this recent decoupling to be a head fake for the NFP in the morning. I guess I'll be looking for a place to get a larger lot allocation long on the pair from hail.
Meaning a spike down equals a buy. If I was in Dallas...I'd would have to be watching from 2 in the morning till 4 or 5 am, is when the action gets wild and a chance of a spike. Wouldn't Hawai be the perfect time zone for trading the London Open....would that be 9 or 10 pm in Hawaii?.
  • #7,548
  • Jul 4, 2013 5:50pm Jul 4, 2013 5:50pm
Agree:
buy from daily low after the news,
try to sell from tops before news
  • #7,549
  • Edited 6:44pm Jul 4, 2013 5:59pm | Edited 6:44pm
Wow. The last two posts have provided me with a very, very interesting perspective that I've never had... because I always tend to dismiss the fundamentals.

I mentioned a headfake/fakeout in one of my earlier posts too. Are you guys suggesting then that tomorrow's NFP will be the trigger that allows us to break out of this range? If so, that means I should have a bias to the downside right now, NOT the upside. And that bias is most likely to change tomorrow. This would explain these nasty 1-minute candles I keep seeing.

PS: Notice how that 150.611 to 150.665 support zone held PERFECTLY. Still Bullish.
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  • #7,550
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:06pm Jul 4, 2013 7:06pm
Quoting smash1820
Wow. The last two posts have provided me with a very, very interesting perspective that I've never had... because I always tend to dismiss the fundamentals. I mentioned a headfake/fakeout in one of my earlier posts too. Are you guys suggesting then that tomorrow's NFP will be the trigger that allows us to break out of this range? If so, that means I should have a bias to the downside right now, NOT the upside. And that bias is most likely to change tomorrow. This would explain these nasty 1-minute candles I keep seeing. PS: Notice how that 150.611...

Without coming across as boring, I'll post this chart again. Notice the curved yellow line ... it has not been broken yet. Observe also, cough, vomit, the adherence to fib levels on the way up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh4.png Size: 76 KB
  • #7,551
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:13pm Jul 4, 2013 7:13pm
Haha, sorry bro. Maybe I'm just stupid, but I see lots of curved yellow lines. You'll have to be more specific than that. Especially if using a Daily chart.
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  • #7,552
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:27pm Jul 4, 2013 7:27pm
If I'm not mistaken, I think you're trying to say that a clear bullish trend has not fully developed yet, and we may still even be in a downtrend depending on your perspective (ie: time frame). However, we all have different styles of trading and I can tell you that I am an aggressive trader and I do not look for as much confirmation as most other traders. My philosophy is that the longer you wait for confirmation, the more of a delayed signal you are going to have, and therefore a worse entry. A trend has to start at some point (which is usually before the majority of traders know about it -- because if it were that obvious, we'd probably already be in a trend), and so basically I am saying that my style is usually to try to catch that earlier signal. And that seems to be the direct opposite of what you are saying.
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  • #7,553
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:27pm Jul 4, 2013 7:27pm
Quoting smash1820
Haha, sorry bro. Maybe I'm just stupid, but I see lots of curved yellow lines. You'll have to be more specific than that. Especially if using a Daily chart.

Yes, sorry about all the emas and such stuff. I normally post clean charts but this one was just easier to use. I referred to the yellow curved line that touched 147.1 and is rising. It's a 4 hr chart. FYI, it intersects with a similar weekly line that held it up at 137.8, 140.3 and 147.1.

I know it sounds like rubbish ... but it works. Usually to the pip.

Until that line breaks decisively, it remains potentially bullish, although I accept it may only be in a retracement right now.
  • #7,554
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:42pm Jul 4, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting Mpt
Yes, sorry about all the emas and such stuff. I normally post clean charts but this one was just easier to use. I referred to the yellow curved line that touched 147.1 and is rising. It's a 4 hr chart. FYI, it intersects with a similar weekly line that held it up at 137.8, 140.3 and 147.1. I know it sounds like rubbish ... but it works. Usually to the pip. Until that line breaks decisively, it remains potentially bullish, although I accept it may only be in a retracement right now.
I believe you. And thanks for the clarification. I do not dismiss anything as rubbish because I believe this is one of the most technical markets we've ever seen. If it works that well, perhaps you might want someone to automate for you???

I will also say that I've never seen any indicator like that. It looks very intriguing. From the time that I've been active on this thread, it seems like you are a very good trader, which is why I'm also surprised that you agree with me! I thought you would be ultra-bearish here but I guess it is not time for that yet.

I hope it doesn't bother you guys, but I am used to being the contrarian in the room.
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  • #7,555
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:52pm Jul 4, 2013 7:52pm
No, I'm a crap trader. I've just learnt to draw pretty lines on a computer screen.

I really don't know where it's going right now. I guess the best middle of the road answer is that if it gets back above about 151.3 (daily pivot area) and holds, it may well move up quickly. If it breaks its double bottom, well, you know the rest. But right now, my gut feel is up, for one last and potentially agressive move -
  • #7,556
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:00pm Jul 4, 2013 8:00pm
Quoting Mpt
No, I'm a crap trader. I've just learnt to draw pretty lines on a computer screen.
Hahaha. Don't say that though. If anyone should be saying that, it should be me. I don't even want to tell you the number of stupid and wreckless trades I've made, and how much money I've lost in the process. I still am not truly profitable yet... But, the key is to never give up. I feel like I am almost there. But you are definitely a step above me.

I will also say that, in my opinion, if the 4H stochastics breaks to the downside... whenever that may be... well, you will NOT want to be a buyer.
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  • #7,557
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:21pm Jul 4, 2013 8:21pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Hahaha. Don't say that though. If anyone should be saying that, it should be me. I don't even want to tell you the number of stupid and wreckless trades I've made, and how much money I've lost in the process. I still am not truly profitable yet... But, the key is to never give up. I feel like I am almost there. But you are definitely a step above me. I will also say that, in my opinion, if the 4H stochastics breaks to the downside... whenever that may be... well, you will NOT want to be a buyer.

It's good to be sceptical of others - following the herd in a thread like this can sometimes be not a great idea. It can get you into a lot of trouble. That's why i prefer to sit in the middle until it shows its direction. Above the daily pivot or below the bottom in this case. Every indicator I have here says down, struggling or undecided. So I wait.

But, you know, if lots of newcomers suddenly came on here and started calling for short, I would be more inclined to think bullish - that's just how it is sometimes. In fact most of the time. Quite often, right at the end of a trend you find everyone jumping on to grab some easy money - then it reverses. Sad but true.
  • #7,558
  • Edited 8:47pm Jul 4, 2013 8:37pm | Edited 8:47pm
BUY NOW if you haven't already. Last chance to buy. Just advice; please take with a grain of salt.
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  • #7,559
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:43pm Jul 4, 2013 8:43pm
Quoting Mpt
It's good to be sceptical of others - following the herd in a thread like this can sometimes be not a great idea. It can get you into a lot of trouble. That's why i prefer to sit in the middle until it shows its direction. Above the daily pivot or below the bottom in this case. Every indicator I have here says down, struggling or undecided. So I wait. But, you know, if lots of newcomers suddenly came on here and started calling for short, I would be more inclined to think bullish - that's just how it is sometimes. In fact most of the time. Quite...
Right you are, sir.
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  • #7,560
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:55pm Jul 4, 2013 8:55pm
Quoting smash1820
BUY NOW if you haven't already. Last chance to buy. Just advice; please take with a grain of salt.
I've taken your advice. I've sold the car, house and the dog and am all in long. Thanks for the tip.
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