Something Out of Nothing

Good morning everyone and happy 4th for the USA.

Yesterday evening I took the hit on the trading charts resistance at 130.02 and just took profit this morning at the charts support 128.90

If you are looking for me to post my live account then that will not happen.. I do not trade demos.

I thank you for your comments and appreciated it very much. One of the Elite traders I had trained lives in the Philippines and he is doing very well with his trading.

Today's ranging marks are:

Resistance -- 132.00
Support -- 127.11
Daily PP -- 129.38

For the last 3 months we have been in a ranging mode between high of 131.50 and Low of 127.06 -- According to this ranging mode we could be bouncing between the High/Low for the next few months as the Monthly progresses in the slider to either turn for the short - or continue for the long.

Wow. I hope that someday Philippines will have more than one Elite Trader. Subscribed to this thread.

EURO/YEN is really a high profitable pair because of it's volatility but on the other hand one of the riskiest pair also. I hope and I have faith that I can still cope up with my losses and be one of those 5%. I keep on praying.

For now, I will follow your posts and will do my best to decipher and understand the strategy and continue to discipline my self and fight the inner greed with the help of God.

An eye-opener for me to get back on track. Made me realize and think back on the important things to remember when trading.

Thank you so much for starting this thread Sir Dove .. More pips to you

Hello Dana,

Good to see you are ok, and you found a solution for Accucharts.
Hope that all the other people are ok as well.

Don't know if you still remember me........... from one of your classes.
Unfortunately i could not continue with it ........ I hope Andrea finished it and became one of the Elite.
But i'm still very thankfull of the lessons I learned!! Still use it in my life and trading.

Take Care, and God Bless

PeterJ

It really amazes me when I read something on the FF about Rules for Trading; especially in becoming one of the Elite. And in reality; there is only one rule for trading in becoming one of the elite Creating a Trading Plan for each and every trade you make. That is the major rule when it comes to trading; along with other basic rules.

But first you must know the difference between Resistance, Support, and HOW Trends are formed between these two levels. And I am not talking about drawing lines on your charts to create these 3 objectives; but having a system that creates these objectives in a Paradox form that is absolute with indicators which are based upon one another and defined as one unit.

A Paradox Trend creates its own Support and Resistance along with its own Trend. It is a master piece filled with entries and exits off its support/resistance. And creating a trading plan based off Support and Resistance - within the Paradox Trend - will turn you into one of Elite.

A trading plan should cater for every eventuality.

Dont worry about where the prices are going. Worry about what you are going to do when they get there.

Think about what is being said here. Once you put your money down on a trade you cannot control the prices. So stop worrying about what could happen and concentrate on your trigger points (support/resistance) and what you will do when these points are violated. By doing this your trading stops being emotional now becomes very systematic and stress free.

Having a trading plan is one of the most important pieces of the puzzle in becoming a consistently profitable trader. Yet, for many traders, creating a trading plan can seem like something of a mystery or perhaps something that they will do eventually.

It is this lazy type of thinking that gets many traders into trouble and causes them to blow out trading accounts. Success in the markets is a function of discipline, and most people simply do not have enough self-discipline to determine if they are trading emotionally or objectively. This is where having a defined forex trading plan comes in; a trading plan will act as a guide which will keep you on the disciplined trading path.

One of the best ways to not let emotions influence your trading activities is to have a defined trading plan that describes in concrete terms what you will do in any given market scenario. Many traders do not attempt to have a trading plan because they arent really sure where to begin or how to write one. It really does not need to be extremely long or complicated to be effective. Essentially the point of a trading plan is to keep you honest with yourself because if you dont do it no one else is going to. And this is exactly the problem most traders have in the markets, there is no one to be accountable too if you lose all your money, except yourself. You arent trading for your boss or someone else, unless you are a prop trader, but most traders dont make it that far because they cannot even be accountable to themselves first.

To be accountable one must first have a greater understanding of support and resistance and learn to trade in the moment. You must learn to be objective and not subjective with the markets past. And having a trading plan is a step in being objective and is why - it is on top of the realm for any trader.

One of the great illusions that your analytical and fundamental traders have depends entirely upon the past. And my question is: What does the past has to do with the moment and beyond? The answer is; absolutely nothing. Even the economical announcements do not affect the trend. The trend will stay in no-matter what the numbers are.

On each and every trading day you have a brand new daily candle at 17:00 ET. And that daily candle is not at 12 midnight or any other time during the 24 hour period. It is set at 17:00 ET and that is with a period.

Everything prior to this new daily candle is obsolete. That includes the last 24 hours, the last 72 hours, the last week, and even the last year. You are now in the moment with a brand new Daily Candle. Why do you think that the prior days High, Low, and Closed is used for the new Daily Candle pivots? The answer is because you now have a new support and resistance for the next 24 hours; and anything that happened on the day, or any days prior, has no meaning what-so-ever.

At 17:00 you have a new daily candle which is in the moment for the next 24 hours and creating new objectives, new supports and resistances; and the greatest objective is on the Daily Trend Chart. And using these objectives takes you into profit each and every trade; each and every day.

One of the greatest criteria I teach anyone is the 40/40 rule. 40 pip stop and 40 pip profit at entry for each and every trade. This is the beginning of learning in how to make an A+ entry; learning how to use support and resistance too their full potential. By using the 40/40 rule you eventually learn how to make your entries from the bottom (support) and from the top (resistance). This does not come easy; but once you learn how use support and resistance then it becomes a plateau of seeing things in a different light.

Being objective vs. subjective has many meanings in life. But lets take these two words and use them in the realm of trading.

Objective:

A: based on facts rather than feelings or opinions: not influenced by feelings.

If each trader is honest with themselves will admit that influence from another trader, outside resources, and/or strictly by feelings are used when they enter or exit their trades? And when this happens you are being subjective from opinions; no-matter where the source of opinions comes from.

The word facts is totally based on truth. And what is truth in the market? It is whats happening in the market before the market even knows it.

Now did you get that? Before the Market even knows it. And the question is: How does this happen? It is done with wisdom of knowing the exact point of entry according with the TRUTH of support and resistance. And if you are subjective with opinions, feelings, and influences, then both the S/R is no longer an objective.

B: expressing or dealing with facts or conditions as perceived without distortion by personal feelings, prejudices, or interpretations.

Trading in the world of the Forex is so much more than being overwhelmed with interpretations, feelings, and prejudices? It is a world of freedom; provided you let it is what it IS. When you try to analyze what is happening you are then subjective and distorted from the condition of facts. And you must always remember; facts are truth and nothing can ever change the facts. It is the same as our own personal DNA. Your DNA is a fact of who you are.

C: limited to choices of fixed alternatives and reducing subjective factors to a minimum.

Fixed alternatives are the supreme of being objective. It is the total source of FOCUS. And you can never be focus if you have more than two trading timeframes of the same pair, trading multiple pairs, trading multiple trades and the list goes on with multiples. You have to make a choice of what pair you will trade and stay with that pair through the duration of your trading career. Trying to trade Multiple Pairs will only drag you into the gutter and keep you there. When you are surfing multiple pairs then you are subjective to all the negativity in which all pairs has to offer.

Subjective:

A: of, relating to, or characteristic of one that is a subject especially in lack of freedom of action or in submissiveness.

Not being submissive is the cardinal sin of a trader. Not being submissive is taking your garbage pit into a realm of negativity and waddle in it. All the factors in not being submissive is fear, lack of confidence, lack of wisdom, lack of patience, and mostly, the ability of not seeing beyond their own pride and ego. Being subjective is one who truly believes they can become great without being submissive. FLASH NEWS TRADERS no one is perfect.

B: characteristic of or belonging to reality as perceived rather than as independent of mind.

This relates to traders who need to belong; those who need recognition. These are traders who place another under their feet because their ego is being blown out of their butt. The character of ones mind is the threshold of their ability to decipher between impulses and reality. And one being subjective is also impulsive in life as a general rule. Independent of mind is following the initiative of submissiveness in learning. It is the very act of setting yourself free.

C: arising out of or identified by means of one's perception of one's own states and processes.

How you identify yourself is the way you live life; and it is the same with trading. If you perceive yourself as a loser then so be it. Your thought process is a fine line between the negativity and the positive side of your character. When you are in a state of subjectivity you are negative. When you are in a state of objectivity you are positive.

Perception of ones own state of mind as a trader is a process that takes time. It does not happen overnight. So time is an element that should never weighed the difference of you processing what is right for you.

D: lacking in reality or substance.

What is the reality for a becoming trader? The answer is simple:

You cannot become rich overnight. It takes years of training, dedication, and sacrifice to become on your own as a trader. It is an education as if you were in college and working for a masters degree. And most importantly; your education is not on a forum such as the FF. That is the reality. To become a trader you must face the fact that trading is a career and not a hobby.

The substances of becoming a trader are the correct tools for your education. Just as a plumber needs the correct tools; an electrician needs the correct tools; a surgical doctor needs the correct tools and etc. Time, dedication, and the right heart for the disappointments you will encounter in trying to reach a new career. If you are not seeking a new career then the Forex is not for you.

Being objective is taking something that "is" and turning which "is" into what "defines truth". And your reasoning is because of the way you think. You cannot take what "is" into anything else, because what "is" belongs to the fact of "truth". And if you stay within the fact of truth then you are being objective and new doors are being open into a realm of a thought process you had not experience in the past. Being objective is also being totally opened minded with what "IS". If you are not open minded then what "if" becomes a delusion.

Being bias means you are also subjective and not open minded with the truth. Being bias defines the difference between a winner and a loser. The biasness of ones mentality is also the conqueror of ones destruction leaving nothing in their wake. This is the main reason traders blows accounts after accounts and it makes no difference if you are Bull or a Bear.

You have to trade objectively and NEVER in a state of biasness. If you are bias then you will lose every dime you have.

There are rules of trading that must be followed. And if you break these rules you will fail. You must have a right attitude along with a mindset that knowledge and understanding is far greater than your own. The variables in the Forex are beyond your imagination so let no-one kid you that history repeat itself in this market because it does not. To trade this market you have to learn to trade in the moment. You have to learn patience, beyond patience; and focus, beyond focus. Without these virtues you will also fail. But most importantly you must get rid of your baggage. The number 1 criteria of being a failure are hanging onto baggage that has no meaning in this market.

What is the main ingredient for failure in this market?

The answer my friends are motives, intentions, and reasoning for wanting to be a trader in the first place with an illusion of getting rich (GREED). If your mind-set and attitude is on money alone then you will not make it and the reason is because trading is an art; in which can take years of learning.

Most traders get involved with the Forex through advertisement with seminars, webinars, and any other form of mass advertisement. The brokers knows once they get you hooked into this market with illusions of getting rich you are then like a junky and it becomes a habit and eventually you are constantly in withdraws. Throwing your hard earn money into a live account - and when you are margined out with no leverage you then throw more hard earned money into that live account like a junky because of the illusion you cannot break away from.

Sure the brokers have their disclaimer in fine print on their website.

But the traders that are hooked that disclaimer means nothing to them because they cannot let go of their illusion. And the biggest problem with this disclaimer there are no broker that can teach the art of trading; or even attempt too. They depend on Forums and other sources that have members like you, with no experience in teaching the true art of trading. 90% or more of those traders on forums are losers. They can sell you wolf tickets and do a very job of it in how great they are. But once they get caught in their lies they are off and running and you never hear from them again. Time and time again I have seen that illusion because I too was once there. But I will say this - you can become very wealthy in this market provided you learn the rules of trading including money management, control of emotions, and other factors in the art of trading.

Of all the traders in the world there are only 5% that makes it in this market and they are called the Elite. The reason is because each and every one of the 5 per-centers are technical traders. They trade in the moment. Your analytical and fundamental traders live in the past trying to predict the future calling shots only because they think or predict what is about to happen and if they get lucky, which they do now and then, is only 20% right. And what is really amazing is that 90% of these analytical traders have not ever traded a live account.

To become one of the Elite you have to be open-minded and teachable and set your mind in becoming a prop trader without illusions. What you have learned in the past has nothing to do with the art of trading. And I will state this very clearly: Price Action has got nothing to do with trading. It is all about Support, Resistance and Trends. Once you have learned this basic rule you then had set your destiny into the right direction of becoming a forex trader.

Hello Dove,
It's good to see you here and I hope everything is well. I am glad that you are came back.
Sir, how to get the right knowledge, the art of trading ?

Thank you, Tusco

The greatest achievement in life is being creative in whatever you do. And it begins by stepping out of your comfort zone. By doing this you see things that no-one else is able to see. Staying in your box you are a prisoner and locked away in a state of being derided by others who have no concept of creativity.

When you are in the box you lack the ability to release your own imagination. You are locked in with others thought processes, their biasness, their lack and ability of seeing beyond their own ego and pride. You are actually locked in with anothers concept and ideas that derive outside of your own imagination.

When you begin a journey of creativity you then release yourself in stepping out of that box and finding your own journey and not that of someone elses.

Through the many years of training others; that was the one criteria that no-one could ever conceive: stepping out of their comfort zone and learning to be creative. To be creative is an art that flows from the heart (your spirt). It is a concept of seeing things outside of what is consider standard within the realm of ideas. So what is standard? It is a concept created by others and depended upon pride and ego. Standard is the way of life for most people and that is why they live within their own little box.

And it is no less with the art of trading. It is seeing what is happening before the market sees it. It is the same as an artist painting a master piece from the creativity of his imagination before his first stroke on the canvas. Seeing the outcome in the moment before it even happens. It is in the moment that all creativity is happening; even on your trading charts.

Most traders fail because they have no concept outside of their comfort zone. It is an animosity to do so. All their negative emotions arise if they even think of stepping out of their box. For most traders the Forex is like a video game filled with What if.

The right knowledge is what IS and not what if. If you read all the post on this forum you will find any post containing what if, why you do this or that, what would you do if this happens, you are wrong so try this, when do you think this will happen or that will happen, will considerably outweigh any post containing What is. As I had mention above what is contains the fact of truth. What if is the aftermath of the moment.

The right knowledge comes after wisdom knowing the difference between what is and what if.

Hey Dana, Good to see you again. Hope all is well.

Hello Dove,

Thank you for your answer, interesting and enigmatic at the same time,but full of truth.

Tusco

Why the FRB is driving EURUSD lower?

The FX market is dominating the headlines at the moment, EUR/USD has fallen more than 6% since the start of this month and is nearly 25% lower since peaking at 1.40 in May last year. The pace of the decline has been stunning: since the last Non-Farm Payrolls report on 6th March, EUR/USD has fallen nearly 400 pips. So the question is why?

To understand the reason why you must first understand why the euro was ever created in the first place; especially with the dollar being dominance of the world currency? And the answer is One World Currency.

The FRB has been planning one world currency since their beginning of the 1930s. Their plan was with the euro being established within the European Countries. It was more of a test to see if it could be done. The euro has had its moments and that is for sure. But what the FRB did not anticipate was the outcome of the Q4.

What is driving the EUR lower?

Central banks: the Federal Reserve and the ECB have been taken opposite monetary policy stances in recent months, with the ECB embarking on QE, while the Federal Reserve is contemplating a rate rise later this year. This has contributed to the spread between German and US 10-yr bond yields falling to a 26 year low. Since yields can determine a currencys strength, record low European yields is a major factor driving the EUR lower.

The dollar: its not just the EUR that has been hammered by the buck, the USD has outperformed all but one (CHF) of its G10 peers, and has also made large gains against some emerging market currencies this year, including the Brazilian real, Turkish lira and Czech Koruna. Some believe that we are at the start of a major dollar uptrend. (And by the way the Swizz franc is the only world currency that is still backed by gold).

Economic and sovereign concerns: the currency bloc is still suffering from the effects of the sovereign debt crisis, some Eurozone countries are still burdened with debt and growth is not yet strong enough to alleviate this situation. Greek default risk remains high and will come back into focus in June when its bailout is due to expire.

How low can the EUR go?

After such a sharp decline, is the EUR likely to fall any further? Some have argued that the EUR may have fallen far enough and we may see a EUR recovery before we see parity. We weigh up the case for a further EUR decline below.

Why the EUR could fall:

The Federal Reserve: if, at its meeting on 18th March, it points to a rate hike potentially as early as June, the risk is that the market raises its expectations for US interest rates for the rest of the year, further weighing on the German US yield spread and depressing the single currency.

Draghi pulls an Abe: The Japanese PM will be remembered for his Abenomics programmed, designed to weaken the yen and boost domestic growth. Since the start of Abenomics in late 2012, the JPY has declined nearly 60% vs. the USD. While the ECB President may not be as outspoken about wanting a weaker currency as PM Abe, he has done nothing to talk the EUR higher in recent weeks. Based on the success of Abenomics, the EUR could have much further to fall over the coming years.

The importance of parity:

This is worth considering. Parity is an extremely important psychological level in EUR/USD that we expect the market to respect. While the EUR may have been in free fall for most of this year, if we reach parity in EUR/USD then we could see one of three things happen:

1, The EUR bounces off this important level as the market considers the downside has reached its limit. This could happen if the Fed is less hawkish than the market expects on 18th March.

2, The EUR crashes through this level and make fresh Euro-era lows. This may happen if the Fed ditches the term patience in regards to the timing of its first rate hike for 5 years and points to further rate hikes past June.

3, EUR/USD hovers around this level and trades sideways as the market makes up its mind what to do next. This could happen if the next Fed statement does not give a clear guide to the future path of US interest rates.

Technical View: Repeat of Q4 Price Action Could Take EURUSD Down to Parity

On a technical basis, there is no doubt that the bears have the upper hand in EUR/USD. The pair has consistently put in lower lows and lower highs since peaking at 1.40 back in May of last year, and any momentary pauses in the pair have eventually resolved to the downside, most recently in November/December and in February. In fact, the Q4 pause may provide a useful template for where EUR/USD could head next.

Back in Q4 of last year, EUR/USD

1) had fallen over 1,000 pips in three months to a new multi-year low
2) before stabilizing in the 300-pip range between 1.23 and 1.26 for six weeks
3) then dropped through support at the bottom of the range
4) accompanied by a turn lower in the MACD indicator
5) and continued to sell off for nearly 1,200 pips before finding a modicum of support near 1.1200.

Interestingly, EUR/USDs movement over the last two months has closely mirrored Q4s price action. As of the start of February, EUR/USD

1) had fallen over 1,000 pips in three months to a new multi-year low
2) before stabilizing in the 300-pip range between 1.12 and 1.15 for five weeks
3) then dropped through support at the bottom of the range
4) accompanied by a turn lower in the MACD indicator
5) and proceeded to sell off about 700 pips to a low of 1.05 thus far.

If we do see EUR/USDs current selloff match the 1,200 pip drop through late-December and January, it would take this pair almost perfectly down to key psychological support at parity before finding its next level of support.

Of course, this type of technical analysis (fractals) is not infallible, and there is also another support level to watch between here and parity. Using an average of the original pre-euro European currencies, the synthetic euro found significant support at 1.0400 both in June 1989 and August 1997, leading to multi-year rallies. With desperate bulls looking for any level to make a stand, that historical precedent could provide a possible rallying point.

There is also an important difference between the situations now compared to the one in Q4. Unlike last time, bears cannot reasonably pin their hopes on the announcement of a massive new easing program by the European Central Bank; after all, the central bank has already instituted its QE program and shows no signs of expanding it further in the near term, though fears of a potential Grexit scenario could provide a similar bearish catalyst as we move into Q2.

Interestingly, the markets positioning is no more extreme than it was in Q4: according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Trader data, futures speculators are net short EUR/USD to the tune of 224,000 contracts, essentially unchanged from 215,000-contact short position when EUR/USD broke its last consolidation range back in December 2014. The lack of truly extreme bearish sentiment (we reached a peak of 252k net short in early February) suggests that EUR/USD could continue to fall before reaching a capitulation bottom.

If Parity Breaks, Where Could EUR/USD Head Next?

After such a sharp decline in EUR/USD in recent days, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that this pair could drop below parity for the first time since 2002. In order to prepare for that possibility, we have to zoom all the way out to a monthly chart. Beyond psychological support at 1.00, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2000-2008 rally comes in at .9900, strengthening the likelihood of support emerging in the 0.9900-1.0000 corridor. On the other hand, if EUR/USD manages to break through .9900 later this year, there is no compelling case for technical support to emerge until minor previous-resistance-turned support around at 9500.

Any way you slice it, EUR/USD parity will be a massive long-term technical level to watch as we move through this year giving back the dollar its power.

Well - it is playing out the scenarios as stated above. I trade the E/J and came just short of the resistance and entered for the short at 131.72 and set target for profit at the E/J Daily Pivot for just over 300 pips.

i like this thread. quite, focus, and make things out of nothing. i have faith in Your system based on Lord Jesus wisdom, in the midst of darkness i try to encourage myself since two days ago that it is possible to earn from forex, and You have shown the way, although i still confused with the system. thanks a lot Mr. Dana.