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  • #7,521
  • Jul 3, 2013 4:24am Jul 3, 2013 4:24am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Cause from where I'm looking, it just retested the broken rising channel and was rejected at about 152. It may well try again and succeed?? Although it's still back inside the channel.
Yes still in the channel but above the previous upper TL channel and 50 fib.

I'm in on the longs anyway. What will happen will happen.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,522
  • Jul 3, 2013 11:15am Jul 3, 2013 11:15am
4hr gonna close above the channel?? I hope so got 152.85 as my target to top out today.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,523
  • Jul 3, 2013 11:22am Jul 3, 2013 11:22am
Actually took out my longs here at 152.8. Loaded up on the pullback (however far it may or may not drop) around 152.3

I reckon the next run up will take us into 153 if it doesn't get touched today already.
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,524
  • Edited 7:11pm Jul 3, 2013 6:58pm | Edited 7:11pm
The lack of momentum is quite something.

With the deeper than anticipated correction a few hours ago, it really showed that it wants to go down.

Whether its now in the last corrective move of the final move up, or whether it already completed at 152.99 is unclear. Or if it only falls back a little more and holds at maybe the the daily pivot area around 152.2, it may have difficulty even getting past its own double top.

Otherwise, even 153.4 might be an obstacle.

A drop now below 152 would probably signal that it has finished.
  • #7,525
  • Jul 3, 2013 7:42pm Jul 3, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting Mpt
The lack of momentum is quite something. With the deeper than anticipated correction a few hours ago, it really showed that it wants to go down. Whether its now in the last corrective move of the final move up, or whether it already completed at 152.99 is unclear. Or if it only falls back a little more and holds at maybe the the daily pivot area around 152.2, it may have difficulty even getting past its own double top. Otherwise, even 153.4 might be an obstacle. A drop now below 152 would probably signal that it has finished.
I took out my shorts at the DP and am back long now. If it does go below 152 with a clear close then I can probably also see it dropping further otherwise it's been a fairly steady ride up so far.

A close in 153 today (Thursday) would be nice. My eyes are on 153.9 as next resistance if it continues north
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,526
  • Jul 4, 2013 1:37am Jul 4, 2013 1:37am
wow did i just miss some news?
massive spike down
  • #7,527
  • Jul 4, 2013 3:20am Jul 4, 2013 3:20am
Quoting flash4
wow did i just miss some news? massive spike down
No, just a big retracement. Next time gj hits resistance it will fall like a rock...if rocks can move???!!!
  • #7,528
  • Jul 4, 2013 4:22am Jul 4, 2013 4:22am
Hey dudes

Was hoping for a pullback to the 50 last night before I closed out my shorts but didn't think it would get there soon but now we are there

Looking for this to hold touch the 61.8 sometime today.

Don't trade news but big news is coming out soon which could send it there. Or not.

151.7 is what i'm looking at. If that breaks and holds then I would re-think my current long positions for the rest of the week.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,529
  • Edited 5:56am Jul 4, 2013 5:36am | Edited 5:56am
It may not be that bearish

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  • #7,530
  • Jul 4, 2013 6:04am Jul 4, 2013 6:04am
Quoting Mpt
It may not be that bearish {image}
wrong
  • #7,531
  • Jul 4, 2013 6:07am Jul 4, 2013 6:07am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} wrong
Ha ha what a move down! Done me up like a kipper!
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,532
  • Jul 4, 2013 6:12am Jul 4, 2013 6:12am
If S3 gets taken out and the lower TL of the channel then it's back to 23.6 IMO. So far the 38.2 is holding up but for how long?

I'm staying out of this for the moment, need a clearer picture of the close
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  • #7,533
  • Jul 4, 2013 6:27am Jul 4, 2013 6:27am
Quoting EatPIPs
If S3 gets taken out and the lower TL of the channel then it's back to 23.6 IMO. So far the 38.2 is holding up but for how long? I'm staying out of this for the moment, need a clearer picture of the close {image}
Correction in the uptrend
  • #7,534
  • Jul 4, 2013 6:35am Jul 4, 2013 6:35am
The rising wedge just got bigger
  • #7,535
  • Jul 4, 2013 6:38am Jul 4, 2013 6:38am
That has held beautifully so far.

Was this the big pullback that we been waiting for? I think so

Unless it breaks and shoots me again
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  • #7,536
  • Edited 8:26am Jul 4, 2013 6:58am | Edited 8:26am
Next time the support may not hold ... or resistance may break

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Sorry about showing all the squiggly lines.
  • #7,537
  • Jul 4, 2013 11:56am Jul 4, 2013 11:56am
f*ing break already!!!
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  • #7,538
  • Edited 12:19pm Jul 4, 2013 12:07pm | Edited 12:19pm
Both bulls and bears can make money here... but as of now, I am biased to the upside. Targeting 152 but I won't be surprised if we don't make it all the way there. Perhaps this would be a good time to use a trailing stop.

Then again, If GJ starts to test 150.611, that would be ultra ultra bearish, but I don't think that is going to happen.
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  • #7,539
  • Jul 4, 2013 12:34pm Jul 4, 2013 12:34pm
Quoting smash1820
Both bulls and bears can make money here... but as of now, I am biased to the upside. Targeting 152 but I won't be surprised if we don't make it all the way there. Perhaps this would be a good time to use a trailing stop. Then again, If GJ starts to test 150.611, that would be ultra ultra bearish, but I don't think that is going to happen.
I'd be very careful when using a TS on this pair. Unless your not heavily in profit and don't know the finish line. This is one of the only pairs that needs a lot of space to breathe.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #7,540
  • Jul 4, 2013 1:08pm Jul 4, 2013 1:08pm
Quoting EatPIPs
I'd be very careful when using a TS on this pair. Unless your not heavily in profit and don't know the finish line. This is one of the only pairs that needs a lot of space to breathe.
I agree with you. I almost never use trailing stops, but I figured this might be one of the few times where it is appropriate. In my opinion, GBP/JPY is THE most volatile pair (which is why I trade it exclusively now), and you do need to give it lots of breathing room.

But like you said, I just opened this long position as I missed out on that nasty selloff while I was sleeping ... and I don't know how far this thing is going to run. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I always thought the point of trailing stops was to help you protect your profits. Right now, I don't have any profit because this position is still new and using a TS is like having a flexible or dynamic stop loss that changes with the market.

Granted, you have to be right with your analysis and as of now, the 15m chart became a little more ugly, so if this thing doesn't break in the next couple of hours I'll be forced to get out of it.
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