Dislikedfor reversal drop has to stop first. we need to see a few green bars on weekly then retest of the bottom. once it is checked for reliability that would confirm downtrend is over. so it should take a few months.Ignored
- #60,003
- Jul 3, 2013 10:23am Jul 3, 2013 10:23am
- Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Nil Desperandum | 389 Posts
Two price levels to be respected. . . . easy money!
When I say easy money of course we all know there is no such thing. . at least not for us normal people.
Anyway I notice that there is a lot of waffle and not much analysis on this thread of late, so here are a few charts to to brighten up the place.
AUD/USD weekly --- I know this time frame is way of scale for some people ( I was going to start from monthly as it does clarify a few things) but a good place to start.
The Fib retracement covers the entire price range for AUD/USD over the past 15 or more years. The crosses represent levels which had been used by traders attempting to project the fib to speculate on future price tops. As it can be seen the 0.925 top fits the whole charts price action together very nicely, almost uncanny isn't it and certainly not coincidence. So the two levels I mentioned above now jump out as 0.9585 ( 23.6% fib ) and 0.8673 ( 38.2% fib) or there abouts.
AUD/USD Daily
Now the range (for the time being) is established, the daily chart shows what can happen when such a significant level is hit. The first test and fade yields a 1000pip rally, second test and fade another 1000pips. Market took the level seriously. Third test leads to break but on the 4h chart it can be seen there were plenty more opportunities to squeeze some money from it.
AUD/USD 4h
Finally the 23.6% fib breaks on the third test (no surprise, demand would be mostly absorbed from the first two tests). However the level is hit 5 times during the process, each tap yielding a 100pip+ bounce. This time scale is 1-5 days, more in line with the majority of posters on this thread I am guessing.
Where is next! Well I would bet my Grannies false teeth that the 38.2% fib will not be ignored, if price gets there that is.
The question how will you be speculating with your hard earned sovereigns. . . .?
VP
When I say easy money of course we all know there is no such thing. . at least not for us normal people.
Anyway I notice that there is a lot of waffle and not much analysis on this thread of late, so here are a few charts to to brighten up the place.
AUD/USD weekly --- I know this time frame is way of scale for some people ( I was going to start from monthly as it does clarify a few things) but a good place to start.
The Fib retracement covers the entire price range for AUD/USD over the past 15 or more years. The crosses represent levels which had been used by traders attempting to project the fib to speculate on future price tops. As it can be seen the 0.925 top fits the whole charts price action together very nicely, almost uncanny isn't it and certainly not coincidence. So the two levels I mentioned above now jump out as 0.9585 ( 23.6% fib ) and 0.8673 ( 38.2% fib) or there abouts.
AUD/USD Daily
Now the range (for the time being) is established, the daily chart shows what can happen when such a significant level is hit. The first test and fade yields a 1000pip rally, second test and fade another 1000pips. Market took the level seriously. Third test leads to break but on the 4h chart it can be seen there were plenty more opportunities to squeeze some money from it.
AUD/USD 4h
Finally the 23.6% fib breaks on the third test (no surprise, demand would be mostly absorbed from the first two tests). However the level is hit 5 times during the process, each tap yielding a 100pip+ bounce. This time scale is 1-5 days, more in line with the majority of posters on this thread I am guessing.
Where is next! Well I would bet my Grannies false teeth that the 38.2% fib will not be ignored, if price gets there that is.
The question how will you be speculating with your hard earned sovereigns. . . .?
VP
Nil desperandum
- #60,006
- Jul 3, 2013 10:45am Jul 3, 2013 10:45am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,392 Posts | Online Now
Two price levels to be respected. . . . easy money! When I say easy money of course we all know there is no such thing. . at least not for us normal people. Anyway I notice that there is a lot of waffle and not much analysis on this thread of late, so here are a few charts to to brighten up the place. AUD/USD weekly --- I know this time frame is way of scale for some people ( I was going to start from monthly as it does clarify a few things) but a good place to start. {image} The Fib retracement covers the entire price range for AUD/USD over the...
- #60,018
- Jul 3, 2013 6:17pm Jul 3, 2013 6:17pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
{quote} I don't understand what you mean by north. You referring that smart money is moving to the north pole?
As Above, So Below
- #60,019
- Jul 3, 2013 6:17pm Jul 3, 2013 6:17pm
- | Joined Feb 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,365 Posts
bullshit, smart money is going only north
Hoping to touch stop point of 1B or so position
- #60,020
- Jul 3, 2013 7:20pm Jul 3, 2013 7:20pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
Best buy limit order I've ever had...
should fall to 9090... maybe 9080.. then i think it will find big buyers
just look at the weekly chart....
AUDUSD 1hr
should fall to 9090... maybe 9080.. then i think it will find big buyers
just look at the weekly chart....
AUDUSD 1hr
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.