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  • #481
  • Jun 12, 2013 10:17pm Jun 12, 2013 10:17pm
Quoting mypipbull
USD/CHF - Short Update
Downtrend continues....now threatening 0.92. It that gives way then 0.90 should be easily tested. Stop lowered as marked. {image}
We pretty much closed on 0.92 yesterday (depending on the chart time stamp) we did sneak below but clawed back....to 0.92. All still looks good for the bears.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130612_USDCHF_D.png Size: 12 KB
  • #482
  • Jun 13, 2013 9:20pm Jun 13, 2013 9:20pm
AUD/JPY - Long Orders

This trade looks like value to me. I have a number of reasons why I like the long side here.

1) Bullish COT Conditions
2) At major Weekly previous resistance level 89-90 (perhaps becoming support?)
3) Weekly CCI Oversold
4) Daily CCI Oversold with Bullish Divergence
5) Today printed a Bullish Pinbar that was also an outside day

This trade is very much against the current trend so is pretty speculative. However, the above reasons present an opportunity for at least a bounce if not full reversal.


Long orders as follows: L@9267 SL@8885
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #483
  • Jun 20, 2013 9:21pm Jun 20, 2013 9:21pm
I got punished for early entries on the following:

S&P500 - Long
AUD/USD - Long
EUR/AUD - Short

As a result 1R Losses on all these.
  • #484
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:08pm Jun 20, 2013 10:08pm
Quoting mypipbull
AUD/JPY - Long Orders ............
Orders were cancelled
  • #485
  • Jun 22, 2013 9:58pm Jun 22, 2013 9:58pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} A new swing high made today. Stop moved up to below Bar3 (@1.5475) {image}
Position closed for a small win.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #486
  • Jun 22, 2013 10:01pm Jun 22, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} We pretty much closed on 0.92 yesterday (depending on the chart time stamp) we did sneak below but clawed back....to 0.92. All still looks good for the bears. {image}
Just hanging in there at the moment......lots of Dollar strength last week......this shorts days are numbered I think.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #487
  • Jun 24, 2013 10:18pm Jun 24, 2013 10:18pm
USD/CHF
Short reversal pinbar today. Stop lowered to 0.94.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20130625_USDCHF_D.png Size: 11 KB
  • #488
  • Jun 24, 2013 10:51pm Jun 24, 2013 10:51pm

EUR/USD

From a COT point of view the Index has triggered a Bear warning. The net position as of 18th June is still tracking along in the direction of the current trend, however the last 3 bearish days were not included in the report so it's possible a new down trend may be panning out. Also given the size of the bars it adds a bit of weight to the reversal scenario. However, until the next report is published we have to follow recent price.



Technically, the Weekly and Daily still seem to be moving upward. This looks like a nice pullback and now continuation pin. I do have a bit of concern at the strength and depth of the pullback but there are always doubts in this business. I do see a bit of a demand area present in the 1.305 - 1.31 area as marked by the rectangle. There is also a 55% chance of an upclose on a Tuesday.



A break below the low will void this trade. A break above the High will have me long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #489
  • Jun 25, 2013 8:41pm Jun 25, 2013 8:41pm
Quoting mypipbull
EUR/USD......... A break below the low will void this trade. A break above the High will have me long.
Orders cancelled. Pretty bearish looking bar here. Its tempting to sell but would like to see a bit more of a move to the downside and then a few bars worth of a pullback to sell nearer the EMA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #490
  • Jun 26, 2013 6:28pm Jun 26, 2013 6:28pm
AUS Stock Index(s)

This trade has zero to do with the 'new-old' Prime Minister being re-appointed.
We all know the AUD and the associated stock market indexes have been hammered of late (All Ords and ASX200 + more)

However, I think we are at an area where we may have ground out a mid term bottom. The weekly chart show 4600 as being previous resistance that may be turning into support. It is also at the 50% FIB level of the most recent run up. On top of this we have a potential weekly hammer (pinbar) in the making.

On the Daily chart we can see bullish divergence on MACD (and other oscillators).

The uptrend is still NOT confirmed yet and we could still get another leg down but there are a few things pointing to a potential bottom. I would like to see a pullback here and then a bullish reversal bar above the recent swing low of 4600. This would get me long.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #491
  • Jun 26, 2013 8:48pm Jun 26, 2013 8:48pm
EUR/JPY - Short Orders
I am bearish this pair. The near term trend is down, we closed back below the EMA20 and then pulled back forming two consecutive shooting stars (pin bars) at:
1) A previous support level
2) A round number 130
3) EMA20

Although the shooting stars did not yield immediately there was indecision with the following two bars being dojis (or ranging bars). Last night we broke to the downside and closed strongly below the lows of the last four bars. This is the first bar with a decent sized body in a week and it is with the trend and my bias.

I am Short below Bar2 and Stop is above Bar1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #492
  • Jul 1, 2013 8:44pm Jul 1, 2013 8:44pm
Quoting mypipbull
EUR/JPY - Short Orders I am bearish this pair.
Orders were cancelled following the next day being an inside bar
  • #493
  • Jul 2, 2013 4:33am Jul 2, 2013 4:33am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Orders were cancelled following the next day being an inside bar
Hi Mike, I still like the look of this one .

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #494
  • Jul 2, 2013 10:22pm Jul 2, 2013 10:22pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Hi Mike, I still like the look of this one . {image}
Hey Stew.
Long time. Looks like its rallied a little more since your post. I agree with you however.
I am more bearish the EUR than bullish the JPY. I am liking the EUR/USD for a short now.
  • #495
  • Jul 2, 2013 10:23pm Jul 2, 2013 10:23pm
EUR/USD - Short Orders
I have been waiting for some kind of pullback to sell. This setup will have to do.
We have seen strong selling on this pair and attempts to recover have been short lived and have failed. Today we has an outside day with a strong close down. The close is below 1.3 which had been a bit of a barrier over the previous four days. It is a strong looking bear bar and since it has closed outside the recent range I feel it's a pretty good signal for a sell.
I am short on a break of the Bar2 Low with a stop above Bar1 High.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #496
  • Jul 2, 2013 10:24pm Jul 2, 2013 10:24pm
Gold - Short Orders
Just to state the obvious Gold has been in a pretty fierce downtrend and imo will be a pretty good buy at some stage. However, it has a lot to prove for bulls to get excited. This is a well established mature and volatile downtrend and taking shorts this late always make me thinking I am selling the bottom. That is why I wait for an A grade setup to sell. Yesterday flashed such a setup. We had a bearish Pin bar form after a test of a prior support level. I am taking the signal because everything is leaning in its favour:
1) Downtrend
2) Test or an obvious prior support level (becoming resistance?)
3) PA looks good.
This gives me enough confidence to place orders. I am short below the Bar1 Low with Stop above the Bar1 High.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #497
  • Jul 3, 2013 1:53am Jul 3, 2013 1:53am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Hey Stew. Long time. Looks like its rallied a little more since your post. I agree with you however. I am more bearish the EUR than bullish the JPY. I am liking the EUR/USD for a short now.
Yep think I'll wait for some momentum - I'm also reluctant to buy yen atm - Agree re EU.
  • #498
  • Jul 3, 2013 12:30pm Jul 3, 2013 12:30pm
Was looking to buy $ sell EU but saw this today - maybe I should be selling.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #499
  • Jul 3, 2013 5:04pm Jul 3, 2013 5:04pm
Quoting stewrigh
Was looking to buy $ sell EU but saw this today - maybe I should be selling. {image} {image}
The USD/CAD is one I have had a failed attempt at selling not so long ago. The writing seems to be on the wall here with that weekly shooting star in formation at resistance. The last 8 days have seen pretty range bound action so there could be a breakout somewhere......I like you prefer the downside but will let price show me the way.
Hope things are good with you.
Mike
  • #500
  • Jul 3, 2013 6:59pm Jul 3, 2013 6:59pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} The USD/CAD is one I have had a failed attempt at selling not so long ago. The writing seems to be on the wall here with that weekly shooting star in formation at resistance. The last 8 days have seen pretty range bound action so there could be a breakout somewhere......I like you prefer the downside but will let price show me the way. Hope things are good with you. Mike

Hi MPB selling usdcad is a trade I am deliberating on right now as I type. I was thinking that 10425 is a first target and further down if prices co-operate further and my reasons are
inability to blow past 10550 area clearly
bearish divergence on the daily 8h and 4h
'M' pattern forming

very tempting indeed...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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