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Trading systems are pretty over-rated

  • #21
  • Jul 3, 2013 6:26am Jul 3, 2013 6:26am
Quoting oztrader79
{quote} Hey deltatrade, how about you stop being an arrogant arsehole who is so intent on proclaiming his own opinion and look at what the real point of the orginal post was? it was quite simple, he was asserting that to be successful one doesn't need complicated systems and the like, which is something beginners often search for and waste their time on. Instead, you get hung up on his ROI figures. I apologise delta, because as I have been told before and yet here I am doing it again, don't feed the trolls!

first of all mind the language. second the begginers are on to something. you cannot make a trading system unless you saw them all. you cannot choose a style unless you saw them all.you have to be a specialist in this field and how on earth are you going to be a specialist unless you know a lot of stuff? on this forum succes is a rare thing because it's very hard to find something that works. choose any trading system in the trading systems forum and i will show you that it does not work.
  • #22
  • Jul 3, 2013 6:52am Jul 3, 2013 6:52am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} first of all mind the language. second the begginers are on to something. you cannot make a trading system unless you saw them all. you cannot choose a style unless you saw them all.you have to be a specialist in this field and how on earth are you going to be a specialist unless you know a lot of stuff? on this forum succes is a rare thing because it's very hard to find something that works. choose any trading system in the trading systems forum and i will show you that it does not work.
No apologies for the language, you arrogance to the OP deserved it for not listening to his intention but going off on your own tangent.


completely disagree with your view above. You do not need to know everything to be good at something, and more often than not people overcomplicate things that can be simple. They confuse the essential for the peripheral. There are plenty of market analysts who know "everything" but if you look at the calls they make on where currency will go, more often than not they are not more accurate than anybody else.

edit: you cannot show me any system does not work, why? because unless you know the MM that lies behind it your analysis is meaningless. Many people trade the same system, some successfully and others not. why? it comes back to proper MM.
  • #23
  • Jul 3, 2013 6:59am Jul 3, 2013 6:59am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} in forex for a trader that can make 40 trades per month and a very low 1% risk 10% is a low target. it's basic math. most of the hedge funds suck . i will never put my money in a hedge fund.
Delta, hedgefunds deal with big money - if you have $50 000 000 as investor - would you prefer to tremble day and night how they got invested or you will compound them year after year with 4 - 4.5%. At some point he absolute amount matters. Or can you swallow like 3-4% loss in series of bad trades (like 2 million dollars) - until you get "good trade"?!
  • #24
  • Jul 3, 2013 7:05am Jul 3, 2013 7:05am
Quoting oztrader79
{quote} No apologies for the language, you arrogance to the OP deserved it for not listening to his intention but going off on your own tangent. completely disagree with your view above. You do not need to know everything to be good at something, and more often than not people overcomplicate things that can be simple. They confuse the essential for the peripheral. There are plenty of market analysts who know "everything" but if you look at the calls they make on where currency will go, more often than not they are not more accurate than anybody...
you don't say. so you know what you need to be succesful? highly doubt it.

Quoting michaelpelly
edit: you cannot show me any system does not work, why? because unless you know the MM that lies behind it your analysis is meaningless.
i cannot show you because you have a very low iq. get it?
  • #25
  • Jul 3, 2013 7:07am Jul 3, 2013 7:07am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} Delta, hedgefunds deal with big money - if you have $50 000 000 as investor - would you prefer to tremble day and night how they got invested or you will compound them year after year with 4 - 4.5%. At some point he absolute amount matters. Or can you swallow like 3-4% loss in series of bad trades (like 2 million dollars) - until you get "good trade"?!
hedge funds suck at trading. 4-5% is not guaranteeed. in fact the further away you are on the positive side something like 40-50% anually the less likely you are going to lose.
  • #26
  • Jul 3, 2013 7:20am Jul 3, 2013 7:20am
Quoting deltatrade
{quote} you don't say. so you know what you need to be succesful? highly doubt it. {quote} i cannot show you because you have a very low iq. get it?
There we go with the arrogance again, confirming my original analysis that you are indeed an arsehole.
  • #27
  • Jul 3, 2013 9:43am Jul 3, 2013 9:43am
I think there are a few things to consider. Systematic trading can be profitable, but I think that the most important part of it is MM. I would go as far as saying that if you take a simple system and add good money management to suit the system you will be able to create a profitable system. This owuld be much more effective on the longer term trades than on the short term ones due to market noise, algos, shocks, repatriation and other things that you cannot account or adjust for in time. Has anyone tried coming up with money management techniques for simple systems to see if you they can turn an average system which sometimes makes money, into a system which is consistantly making money?
  • #28
  • Jul 3, 2013 10:29am Jul 3, 2013 10:29am
Quoting michaelpelly
Hi folks, it is my opinion that trading systems are something pretty overrated and sometimes even dangerous. I have 2 empiric proofs to my small observation - one is my experience, the other is the "news factor". In other words - I do not think tricky systems and technical will make you rich! I'm trading from almost 3 years - initially I was like all others - trying to "solve" the market, learn all technical indicators and trading systems, try to find my "tricky" way, etc., etc. Despite all this - my trading was mediocre - sometimes win,...

So your sweet spots are determined how?
  • #29
  • Jul 3, 2013 4:58pm Jul 3, 2013 4:58pm
@OP I agree. No market is systematic and applying a technical or set approach is accepting a known failure when the market evolves.

What macro moves are you watching? Low Aud? Look at the Nzd/Usd weekly chart and trendline the lows on 12/11, 6/12, and present.
  • #30
  • Jul 3, 2013 10:09pm Jul 3, 2013 10:09pm
So far I'm trading the cable only. Trying to keep the strategy as simple and price oriented as possible. Basically place order at 100 pips behind the price direction - if it kicks - monitor it closely and quickly secure it with zero profit SL (if goes about 20 pips positive) - if it falls back and kick SL - no harm done, wait price to settle a bit and re-apply the order at same spot - works fine so far. The only requirement is a big move had to happened previous 2-3 weeks and price to show hesitation to continue the direction.
  • #31
  • Jul 4, 2013 3:59am Jul 4, 2013 3:59am
Quoting michaelpelly
So far I'm trading the cable only. Trying to keep the strategy as simple and price oriented as possible. Basically place order at 100 pips behind the price direction - if it kicks - monitor it closely and quickly secure it with zero profit SL (if goes about 20 pips positive) - if it falls back and kick SL - no harm done, wait price to settle a bit and re-apply the order at same spot - works fine so far. The only requirement is a big move had to happened previous 2-3 weeks and price to show hesitation to continue the direction.
Why not watch more pairs? Have you maybe considered to place a double opposite order instead of a hard SL?
  • #32
  • Jul 5, 2013 3:08am Jul 5, 2013 3:08am
Well, I prefer to work with a single market - like GBP/USD.

I'm trying to avoid "hesitating" strategy - put orders in both directions - easy to catch the "against the tide" mode, not pretty...

So far I figured-out that patience and prudence are the only 2 really working systems and indicators .
  • #33
  • Last Post: Jan 9, 2014 12:49pm Jan 9, 2014 12:49pm
As the little brother of Mr. Pelly let me add something for the trading systems. None of them works - unless for their creator. People just fail in FOREX, not because of the trading system, they fail because they are people and they let emotions cloud their judgement. When it comes to money we are very emotionally. No one can come to me here and tell me I use this indicator and it made me very rich - that is total crap, these toys to see the future are working only in people imagination. What is needed to succeed in the market is infinite patience, positive mind set and strict control over the loses. Let me just recommend for you people to follow successful people and read about them like G.Soros, D.Trumph ... etc. There are great books about Soros and his trading advices, people just need to read them and think about it. Just remember this very well - If someone knows how to predict the market. Are you sure he will come to you and tell you how to do it? Or he will just open account and make shit loads of money ?
One more thing to add as well, FOREX is not easy and it doesn't suit every kind of people. Only the one that have passion for the markets succeed, they do it because they love it and don't think all the time about money. You may be super genius in normal live and a great engineer and again fail in FOREX.
Mainly and most important quality you need to own in order to succeed is good old COMMON SENSE.
Kind regards to everybody
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