Slow and steady using patience and discipline !

Hi there...

Started the Slow and Steady but lost the plot somewhat.

I want to more structured, disciplined and patient. I hope you can too (be more patient that is... ).

Below is a description of the idea of trading I believe can (and has) work(ed) for me. I will be trading a real live demo acc using only the trades posted on here. This will be a real test of making money. Doubling in month? Nope. I'm hoping for 10%, but any positive outcome will be good.

I will begin with $50,000 balance which I think is reasonable. Will be using FXCM as they allow the trailing stops.

This will be my basis....rules to follow.

Various price action/indicators/trend lines etc on longer time frames (daily/4h) showing a good probability move (what I believe to be better than even chances) will lead me to open a trade. Stop will be determined based on time frame and previous support/resistance. From the stop amount (in pips), and max risk (2% of capital), I will work out lot size based on $/pip for whatever is being traded. Limits will be set which will most likely be way ahead of stops (in terms of number of pips). Stops will be moved to break even as soon as the belief exists that noise won't stop me out unnecessarilly. Trailing stops may also be used once stop moved to b/e.

Main risks are a lack of patience (i.e. waiting for the right trade), and of course lack of discipline - i.e. not following the rules...and the most typical one would be moving stops further away thus letting losses grow.

Will also try to avoid big news spikes.

Wish me luck....! I will keep a list of running balances/trades which I'll post every so often.

There will be no trade taken not on the forum, and no trade on the forum not taken. I hope to keep this going for months and then years if it works. Will be moving to a real acc somewhere in between.

Cheers
John

Good luck mate !

audusd


nice setup being created for a short trade...

AUD JPY


Another nice setup...coming back to a confluence of support/resistance...

blue downward TL that go broke and might now be supportive
red countertrend line that might be supportive
50% fib that might be supportive.

turnaround on shorter time frame would see me go long here....

Whatever we use to trade..the bottom line often will be - how much can I make? How many pips? What % of my capital can I make a month? etc etc.

I'm going to give my answer to these based on the way I believe this trading works...


I'm hoping to make 10% a month. Pips are irrelevant, as lot size changes depending on stop amount. Smaller the stop amount in pips, the larger the lot size. Risk remains the same - 2% per trade max.

I am expecting profits to be about twice the size of losses, so on average profits will make 4% of capital. So using the standard 2% loss and 4% profit, with probability being more than even, you can use a variety of combinations.....

1 win will cover 2 losses for b/e. A win/loss combination will net 2%, so 5 wins and 5 losses a month will net 10%. 3 wins with no losses over 10%. and so on....

A fixed 10% will not be good to try and stick to, but its a ball park goal. It might be a good bit more, or less.

But I believe this to be a reasonably safe, slow and steady method.

With 100,000 dollar acc, that makes on average 10k a month. Most of us could live off that. Double the capital, double the income.

Of course smaller acc's can be left to grow...10% a month compounded will multiply an acc by about 30x in 3 years. So 10k could become 300k ! And by then you can be making 30k a month.

Nice pipe dreams these are, but I think fairly on the conservative side when one sees/reads other threads/ideas out there.

I believe its infinitely possible. Its just the discipline.

Cheers
John

eurcad

if it drops below the green line and pops back up it'll hit a confluence (thanks JH) of resistance/support - bounce down from there would make a fair short trade...

Do not begin this experiment until september. July and August are range-bound, prone to chaotic volatitily and trendline-perforation. If I was you I would not trade real money until September.


J.H.

Hi Mosaic,
Congratulation ,
Please post your analysis charts for us, newbies , to study .
We newbie are rooting for you.

Hi J,

I'll compromise !! Will post charts and ideas, but not trade till Sept...

Thanks for the advice.

John

Hi again NIFX,

sorry for the delay in getting back here. Been working somewhat.

I have decided to take WTB's advice (which no doubt is excellent advice...he is somewhat of a pro). But I will post some charts and ideas...not necessarily daily, but hopefully often.

Thanks for the roots

John

two charts...first is daily with daily channel forming.

Also 38% fib reached from previous big drop

4 hour trendline.

if broken down, with close below blue line, and the confluence of the channel top and the fib, one might consider a short trade ...

Notice the confluence with the purple line also? Is that 100 MA?

wow...this really does look good.

look at the confluence of the fib, strong uptrend, and previous strong resistance level.

bounce off of here and through current downward 4 hr countertrend could make for a really good long trade...

Hi Renasdad,

the orange one is the 100 SMA, the purple is the 62 EMA - I have a thing for fibs ...but yep...good spot...adds to the tale

update on this...did break down.

Opened* short and moved to b/e..stopped out.

Opened short no 2 at 1.2383...moved stop to b/e....now 20 odd pips up

* trades are very small test trades. Not part of original 'plan'. That will wait till sept...

If it pops above the pink countertrend line and then down to the rectangle of super confluence and back up (and it was Sept) I would bet the farm on a long trade. - well maybe 2.1% of the capital rather than 2 % ....

Am starting to put in pivots to guide me too...

S1 for usdchf is 1.2342, so once it bounced there I closed the short - 34 pip profit. Now back up to 1.2365-ish....would be interested to see where it goes

mmm...the yellow metal is on an awesome looking 4 hour downtrend....and seems to have bounced down off it...

short trade taken 575.40 (stop 5 dollars away)

Gold update

Stopped out (in theory...won't tell you what I really did !!! )

But in retrospect, other than not honouring my stop for those of you who couldn't work it out !!!, I should probably have respected the pink countertrend line a little more !!