Looking good!
- #22
- Jun 21, 2013 1:04pm Jun 21, 2013 1:04pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Looking good!
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #23
- Edited 11:30am Jun 28, 2013 5:54am | Edited 11:30am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Well, it's the last trading day of June so here are my results as of today, June 28 2013.
Profit at my last trading cycle (trade #60 of June 26) was 4.2% which is a good result taking into account that this profit was diluted as I added 5K more capital to my account during this month.
I have also updated my EA which is now in version 1.18. it earns less but it's also far more secure than previous versions. My maximum drawdowns experienced during my back tests from 2008 to today range from 38% to 47% where previous versions were giving me results between 40 to 60% So it's a good improvement but I think that there is still room to improve this and I have constantly new ideas coming to my mind, so certainly new versions will come. My focus being to PRESERVE CAPITAL as I trade real money, not just demo for fun.
All time return at last trading cycle : 4.2 %
Tested Months : 2/60
Maximum Drawdown seen this month : -6.0%
Here is a snapshot of todays explorer.
Next report, end of July, just before holidays
Profit at my last trading cycle (trade #60 of June 26) was 4.2% which is a good result taking into account that this profit was diluted as I added 5K more capital to my account during this month.
I have also updated my EA which is now in version 1.18. it earns less but it's also far more secure than previous versions. My maximum drawdowns experienced during my back tests from 2008 to today range from 38% to 47% where previous versions were giving me results between 40 to 60% So it's a good improvement but I think that there is still room to improve this and I have constantly new ideas coming to my mind, so certainly new versions will come. My focus being to PRESERVE CAPITAL as I trade real money, not just demo for fun.
All time return at last trading cycle : 4.2 %
Tested Months : 2/60
Maximum Drawdown seen this month : -6.0%
Here is a snapshot of todays explorer.
Next report, end of July, just before holidays
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #26
- Jul 1, 2013 6:36pm Jul 1, 2013 6:36pm
- Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Loving Nature* | 3,985 Posts
hey broo how are you doing!! how are your loved pyramids!?!!
the secret in this strategy is to martingale changing and adjusting TP to => Breakeven.
the other secret is that, as opposite to casinos, forex is not like a casino, where RED can appear 20 times in a row...
..here the sharpest movement has the needed retracement on his way...experience gives you that!
Broooo, letīs code our baby???
For starting Iīm leading with only the situation when price goes agains us, like this:
imagine long side:
when pending order buy limit (price below the open position) is triggered, the TP of open position drop X pips, being equal to the TP of the fresh pending triggered.(in this case the 2 positions be with same TP)
AND SO ON...
If other peding buy limit below these 2 itīs triggered, the TP of the 2 previous open positions drop X pips, in order to be equal to the TP of new triggered position (in this case the 3 positions be with same TP)
when any TP is triggered, all the pendings are cancelled
I donīt use SL, so you donīt have to bother with that!
you can see the effor of development here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post6789182
and after we will treat the situation when price goes from start on our direction and hit TP, and we have to have related orders to reentry again imagine, 50 pips below from previous relative high, this on long side only!!
we are together, we have on hands a powerfull machin, letīs tune it!!!!
the secret in this strategy is to martingale changing and adjusting TP to => Breakeven.
the other secret is that, as opposite to casinos, forex is not like a casino, where RED can appear 20 times in a row...
..here the sharpest movement has the needed retracement on his way...experience gives you that!
Broooo, letīs code our baby???
For starting Iīm leading with only the situation when price goes agains us, like this:
imagine long side:
when pending order buy limit (price below the open position) is triggered, the TP of open position drop X pips, being equal to the TP of the fresh pending triggered.(in this case the 2 positions be with same TP)
AND SO ON...
If other peding buy limit below these 2 itīs triggered, the TP of the 2 previous open positions drop X pips, in order to be equal to the TP of new triggered position (in this case the 3 positions be with same TP)
when any TP is triggered, all the pendings are cancelled
I donīt use SL, so you donīt have to bother with that!
you can see the effor of development here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post6789182
and after we will treat the situation when price goes from start on our direction and hit TP, and we have to have related orders to reentry again imagine, 50 pips below from previous relative high, this on long side only!!
we are together, we have on hands a powerfull machin, letīs tune it!!!!
- #27
- Edited 2:34am Jul 2, 2013 2:17am | Edited 2:34am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Mathematically, martingale is a 100% guaranteed win strategy..........given enough time and infinite funds. Putting doubling-down into context, there's the rice/chessboard analogy: {quote} It's interesting to note that casinos have two zeros on their roulette wheels to skew the stats in their favour and give them an edge.
0.06, 0.12, 0.24, 0.48, 0.96, 1.84, 3.68
I would have needed 3.68 lots to recover and gain my 0.06 initial trade.
Now, here are the lots of a real example from my explorer dating from june 20 to june 26 2013. That cycle took exactly as in the previous example 7 trades to conclude :
0.06, 0.10, 0.16, 0.13, 0.27, 0.51, 0.81
I call this a cycle because not all trades are forcibly losers but the cycle terminates only when the initial target gain (or more) is achieved. And this is in fact the same goal that a martingale has !
To verify, adding all the gains and losses of the entire cycle I end with a net gain. Here is the calculation :
-34.20 - 48.96 + 30.40 - 114.34 - 199.80 - 259.88 + 695.90 = 69.12
It's interesting to see that first, not all trades double, but only one (0.13 => 0.27) and second, finally it took me 0.81 lots to recover which is 4 times less than in the standard example.
How could that be possible
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #29
- Jul 3, 2013 1:44am Jul 3, 2013 1:44am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #31
- Jul 3, 2013 9:58am Jul 3, 2013 9:58am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
{quote} Hi Fiat, according to your grains theory, starting with 0.06 lots, a string of 6 consecutive losses should have gone this way : 0.06, 0.12, 0.24, 0.48, 0.96, 1.84, 3.68 I would have needed 3.68 lots to recover and gain my 0.06 initial trade. Now, here are the lots of a real example from my explorer dating from june 20 to june 26 2013. That cycle took exactly as in the previous example 7 trades to conclude : 0.06, 0.10, 0.16, 0.13, 0.27, 0.51, 0.81 I call this a cycle because not all trades are forcibly losers but the cycle terminates only...
Hi thnx for sharing you insight in martingale I got some few questions what is your Take profit ? I belive your using Labouchčre system its says there you got to set your TAke profit before you trade can you show us some chart where you place your trade and where your take your profit pls
- #33
- Jul 3, 2013 2:27pm Jul 3, 2013 2:27pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #35
- Jul 24, 2013 1:44am Jul 24, 2013 1:44am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #36
- Edited 4:53am Jul 26, 2013 1:36am | Edited 4:53am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
It’s time for me to report the trading of July.
It has been an energy consuming month, the EA has gone from version 1.18 to version 1.26 ! Everytime I’m obsessed by reducing the risk and now I have been able to reduce the maximal drawdown to 25%. It’s a good improvement but still have a couple of ideas to test after holidays. A bit tired now.
I have also made two great discoveries while observing the EA trading during this month. These observations allowed me to make some manual trades with calculated risk and without needing to chose the direction of the trade as it was given by the EA itself.
The first one that I will call “Regulation” serves to regulate the lot size at each new trading step. I noticed that when I experience a string of losses, very often the losing trades are profitable right from the start, sometimes 20 or even 40 pips before they turn negative. This is why I think to take some profit starting from steps 7 or 8 when the lot size is approximately 10 times or more the size of first trade. This system adds 2 to 3 extra trades to the cycle giving the system more chances to exit with a profit, thus reducing a bit the risk of ruin.
My second discovery has helped me to boost the performance this month to levels that I didn’t think of at the beginig of the month. I discovered that, just before the NFP announcement while having a winning position and wondering if the NFP would ruin my position. So I stopped the EA and took an extra trade almost the same size of my current winning one (the one taken automatically by the EA) and only risking some pips of that winning trade. It’s the trade from july 5 2013 14:12 in trade explorer.
I was 32 pips positive and if the NFP had gone against me, I would have been stopped out and the overall outcome would have been 10 pips profit from the initial trade, that is to say: +32 pips of initial trade - 10 pips of initial trade -10 pips of additional trade = 12 pips overall profit. This result is in any case better that if I had let the EA run by itself as it takes longer to reverse a position. It would certainly have exited the trade with some losses before entering a new one in the opposite direction. So as you see, this trade that I will call the “NEWS” trade is a great bonus at almost no risk if all conditions are met. Finally, the NFP was on my side and I made a great profit from that extra trade and from the original one off course.
This month results are very good thanks to those manual trades and because I took a bit too much risk also. I did that because I was ahead of what the EA would have given me but now I need to cool down a bit, focus again on capital preservation, lower the risk and concentrate on consistency instead of big returns. Next two weeks will be holidays for me so I will stay away from the markets. Beach, sun and sea will help me to come back to earth and start fresh in mid august.
All time return at last trading cycle : 33.3 %
Tested Months : 3/60
Maximum Drawdown seen this month : ~ -10%
It has been an energy consuming month, the EA has gone from version 1.18 to version 1.26 ! Everytime I’m obsessed by reducing the risk and now I have been able to reduce the maximal drawdown to 25%. It’s a good improvement but still have a couple of ideas to test after holidays. A bit tired now.
I have also made two great discoveries while observing the EA trading during this month. These observations allowed me to make some manual trades with calculated risk and without needing to chose the direction of the trade as it was given by the EA itself.
The first one that I will call “Regulation” serves to regulate the lot size at each new trading step. I noticed that when I experience a string of losses, very often the losing trades are profitable right from the start, sometimes 20 or even 40 pips before they turn negative. This is why I think to take some profit starting from steps 7 or 8 when the lot size is approximately 10 times or more the size of first trade. This system adds 2 to 3 extra trades to the cycle giving the system more chances to exit with a profit, thus reducing a bit the risk of ruin.
My second discovery has helped me to boost the performance this month to levels that I didn’t think of at the beginig of the month. I discovered that, just before the NFP announcement while having a winning position and wondering if the NFP would ruin my position. So I stopped the EA and took an extra trade almost the same size of my current winning one (the one taken automatically by the EA) and only risking some pips of that winning trade. It’s the trade from july 5 2013 14:12 in trade explorer.
I was 32 pips positive and if the NFP had gone against me, I would have been stopped out and the overall outcome would have been 10 pips profit from the initial trade, that is to say: +32 pips of initial trade - 10 pips of initial trade -10 pips of additional trade = 12 pips overall profit. This result is in any case better that if I had let the EA run by itself as it takes longer to reverse a position. It would certainly have exited the trade with some losses before entering a new one in the opposite direction. So as you see, this trade that I will call the “NEWS” trade is a great bonus at almost no risk if all conditions are met. Finally, the NFP was on my side and I made a great profit from that extra trade and from the original one off course.
This month results are very good thanks to those manual trades and because I took a bit too much risk also. I did that because I was ahead of what the EA would have given me but now I need to cool down a bit, focus again on capital preservation, lower the risk and concentrate on consistency instead of big returns. Next two weeks will be holidays for me so I will stay away from the markets. Beach, sun and sea will help me to come back to earth and start fresh in mid august.
All time return at last trading cycle : 33.3 %
Tested Months : 3/60
Maximum Drawdown seen this month : ~ -10%
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #37
- Aug 6, 2013 9:45am Aug 6, 2013 9:45am
- Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Loving Nature* | 3,985 Posts
Itīs working great!! I love to see you with huge negative pips corresponds to huge gains!!! thatīs martingale concept as its best!!works like a glove on forex!!
donīt mix many styles, you have already found the profitable one!
donīt mix many styles, you have already found the profitable one!
It’s time for me to report the trading of July. It has been an energy consuming month, the EA has gone from version 1.18 to version 1.26 ! Everytime I’m obsessed by reducing the risk and now I have been able to reduce the maximal drawdown to 25%. It’s a good improvement but still have a couple of ideas to test after holidays. A bit tired now. I have also made two great discoveries while observing the EA trading during this month. These observations allowed me to make some manual trades with calculated risk and without needing to chose the direction...
- #38
- Aug 7, 2013 10:56am Aug 7, 2013 10:56am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #39
- Aug 7, 2013 11:54am Aug 7, 2013 11:54am
- Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Loving Nature* | 3,985 Posts
Hi Xandi, Nothing to say about the EA, It's my head who's not working well. Nothing went good during holidays, dispute with girlfriend, holidays shortened by 1 week, and here I am in Switzerland under the rain and gambling with my profits which I have erased plus 50% of my start capital as a bonus for me being stupid and making vengeance trades to recover my losses. But now I have enough, I have turned on the EA again and will let it run itself, just monitoring it like I did the during the first 3 months and see how it goes. I saw that you started...
no worries bro, thatīs life, girls come & go...itīs good we manipulate the hanger in our life...pass your eyes on Dalai Lama...read also sidharta, and let life returns all the sunshine to you!!!! all the best bro!
- #40
- Aug 7, 2013 12:07pm Aug 7, 2013 12:07pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time