Do you believe moving average systems work? | Page 12 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Simple Moving Average Vs. Moving Average? 8 replies

Other peoples trading systems won't work for you 22 replies

Does Moving average actually act as moving S/R ?? 20 replies

Are the best systems also the systems that fail most spectacularly? 55 replies

Systems, Systems and Systems... 1 reply

Attachments: Do you believe moving average systems work?
Exit Attachments

Do you believe moving average systems work?

  • #221
  • Jul 1, 2013 2:23pm Jul 1, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting pemully
for us trend surfers,the markets continue to reward us. I wonder who are on the other side of our trades lol!
Trend surfing with moving average crosses works great until the inevitable consolidation period where all your gains turn into losses and your pocket catches on fire.

Quoting tandh
There are some basic points with moving averages that do work because big money watches them. Like the 200 sma on indices. Many, for example, consider a bear market over once the daily price has returned over the 200 sma. As the 50 sma and 200 sma crosses are closely watched.
Big money is definitely watching, but they're not the ones who are putting their money on the line when price hits a moving average - that's you, the retail trader. Let me explain a little better - if the crowd effect for all these "tools" that inexperienced speculators use really worked profitably long term, then the crowd would be making money. Do you really believe that's true? Who do you think is losing, Goldman Sachs?

I guess I could smother some of you with the answers to trading profitably and you'd still never get it. Which is what makes me so confident that there will always be someone out there to buy high and sell low in order to fill my orders.
  • #222
  • Jul 1, 2013 2:45pm Jul 1, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Trend surfing with moving average crosses works great until the inevitable consolidation period where all your gains turn into losses and your pocket catches on fire. {quote} Big money is definitely watching, but they're not the ones who are putting their money on the line when price hits a moving average - that's you, the retail trader. Let me explain a little better - if the crowd effect for all these "tools" that inexperienced speculators use really worked profitably long term, then the crowd would be making money. Do you really believe...

Yes everything is only self for-filling due to the crowd effect, but the same way as Pro's use it to make money out of us, we can use it to make money out of each other.

Kanzler, I can't remember what trading method is your religion, if you don't want us to take your opinion seriously, then why not give us some hints as to how it's really done.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #223
  • Jul 1, 2013 2:55pm Jul 1, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Yes everything is only self for-filling due to the crowd effect, but the same way as Pro's use it to make money out of us, we can use it to make money out of each other. Kanzler, I can't remember what trading method is your religion, if you don't want us to take your opinion seriously, then why not give us some hints as to how it's really done.
In order to profit from the markets, you must take money from someone else by fooling them into buying higher and selling lower than you. There's no way around that basic dynamic as money simply isn't generated out of thin air in the markets, it's being transferred out of someone's account into someone else's. So the point I made in my last post stands....if all the retail traders here are making money, do you really think that's coming out of Goldman Sachs' pockets? Hardly.

My own trading strategy has to do with order flow and identifying where institutions are placing orders on the chart based on specific past price action characteristics...understanding the nature of the auction market and how price actually moves is a fundamental thing you're going to need to understand in order to progress. I guess long story short, I just hitch a ride on bigger coattails.
  • #224
  • Jul 1, 2013 3:07pm Jul 1, 2013 3:07pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} In order to profit from the markets, you must take money from someone else by fooling them into buying higher and selling lower than you. There's no way around that basic dynamic as money simply isn't generated out of thin air in the markets, it's being transferred out of someone's account into someone else's. So the point I made in my last post stands....if all the retail traders here are making money, do you really think that's coming out of Goldman Sachs' pockets? Hardly. My own trading strategy has to do with order flow and identifying...
Kinda, the person who bought your profitable sell order at what you claim is the top, might still hold over the down run and get to profit, as he's just working on a different TF / Method to you, it's not quite that cut and dry, but in principal YES, money like mass isn't created it's merely transfered around.

If you allow for EVERY Goldman type out there, is making huge money and paying out huge bonus's and massive costs to support those traders, then they aren't taking money off each other, or they'd go bankrupt, they are taking it from Retail / US, millions of us, trying our best giving away $50 here, some rich idiots jump in and lose 100K to never try again, they really like this and try to encourage larger players.

Small players keep going and going, cause we can afford to and can't afford to stop really, they want quiters or people that'll lose for ever consistently.

Fair enough on your method, I'd like to know more detail ofcourse about how you view order flow and how you identify these positions ( If it's Candle Stick related I will laugh at you HUGELY ), it's got to be something much smarter than MA's!!

We are all, just trying to join the big boys and take them for a ride, it's just not easy.

And just when you think you've found a repeatable pattern, so does the rest of retail, Goldmans profits take a blip, they spot they've been rumbled, flip how there trading and retail which all thinks they've cracked it, very quickly losers there gains and more, fallen for this trap time and time again.

Work out what there doing before everyone else, trade it hard, then stop as soon as possible as retail catches on and they flip it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #225
  • Jul 1, 2013 3:27pm Jul 1, 2013 3:27pm
I'll send you a private message...it's pretty simple and I'm certain in your experience you've come across it before, but it's certainly not candlestick patterns.
  • #226
  • Jul 1, 2013 3:42pm Jul 1, 2013 3:42pm
Quoting Kanzler
I'll send you a private message...it's pretty simple and I'm certain in your experience you've come across it before, but it's certainly not candlestick patterns.
Yep, read understood, it's how GDR Trades so I'm willing to Vouch for you and accept your not a BS loser like 99% around here, you understand why I require proof before I trust anyone on here really.

I'm not very good at holding and waiting, so I need a higher win rate, 75%+ win rate area but I'm likely making 75% of my risk per trade currently.

I need a method I can trade via a Nexus 7 at clients, which doesn't easily support drawing lines and can pick up and get an hour or 2 trading here and there.


I think / hope I'm nearly there, it's not just MA's, live supply and demand mainly, rather than historic areas.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #227
  • Jul 1, 2013 3:47pm Jul 1, 2013 3:47pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Yep, read understood, it's how GDR Trades so I'm willing to Vouch for you and accept your not a BS loser like 99% around here, you understand why I require proof before I trust anyone on here really. I'm not very good at holding and waiting, so I need a higher win rate, 75%+ win rate area but I'm likely making 75% of my risk per trade currently. I need a method I can trade via a Nexus 7 at clients, which doesn't easily support drawing lines and can pick up and get an hour or 2 trading here and there. I think / hope I'm nearly there, it's...
Thanks for the vouch, I didn't expect that. And yes I certainly do, when I was still looking for my edge evidence was important. Lots of crapola floating around pushed by salespeople who've never tasted a dollar of trading profit in their lives. Anyway now you know, best wishes on getting to your final destination. Quite honestly I don't believe you need to trade that frequently as part of the luxury of this business is being able to do what you want in your free time and not having to spend it working, but that's just my personal view and has nothing to do with what works and what doesn't.
  • #228
  • Jul 1, 2013 3:51pm Jul 1, 2013 3:51pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Thanks for the vouch, I didn't expect that. And yes I certainly do, when I was still looking for my edge evidence was important. Lots of crapola floating around pushed by salespeople who've never tasted a dollar of trading profit in their lives. Anyway now you know, best wishes on getting to your final destination. Quite honestly I don't believe you need to trade that frequently as part of the luxury of this business is being able to do what you want in your free time and not having to spend it working, but that's just my personal...

I'm a fair man!

As long as your not reading Candle Stick patterns like there tea leaves

Maybe later, when I've got a 100K+ account, but with a $200 account, even with adding some when method is approved maybe $1000 account, I need to make 3% many many times per day, to get to the 100K+ account status in the first place.

Sucks being Skint, easy to make money if you already have it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #229
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:08pm Jul 1, 2013 4:08pm
I try to use MAs for trend identification purpose and also for entry. They work only in trending markets but they still work in choppy markets as good support and resistance points. Here is a snapshot of cable. You can understand what I have to say.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 116 KB
  • #230
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:10pm Jul 1, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I'm a fair man! As long as your not reading Candle Stick patterns like there tea leaves Maybe later, when I've got a 100K+ account, but with a $200 account, even with adding some when method is approved maybe $1000 account, I need to make 3% many many times per day, to get to the 100K+ account status in the first place. Sucks being Skint, easy to make money if you already have it.
Agreed. But sometimes I'm grateful that I don't have a lot of money, because I'm certain I could have squandered it while I was learning. There's always an upside to things, and once you understand how to trade profitably the value of knowing that you have the ability to compound your way to a good lifestyle is an amazing feeling. Seeing it actually grow as proof of your ability is even better.
  • #231
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:14pm Jul 1, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Agreed. But sometimes I'm grateful that I don't have a lot of money, because I'm certain I could have squandered it while I was learning. There's always an upside to things, and once you understand how to trade profitably the value of knowing that you have the ability to compound your way to a good lifestyle is an amazing feeling. Seeing it actually grow as proof of your ability is even better.

Mate was trading in and out of Telewest making a few £100 a time, but with a 100K+ account, it went against him and eventually delisted, he lost 106K I think it was, be happy you didn't do that.

What did you start with, when you'd cracked it ??

And remember, your way isn't the only way, may not work for others!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #232
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:25pm Jul 1, 2013 4:25pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Mate was trading in and out of Telewest making a few £100 a time, but with a 100K+ account, it went against him and eventually delisted, he lost 106K I think it was, be happy you didn't do that. What did you start with, when you'd cracked it ?? And remember, your way isn't the only way, may not work for others!!
I only lost a couple hundred during my learning process and learned quickly after my first bust to use demo. I thought I'd figured it out with fib confluence back then hah. The current account I'm building on is based on another $100 principle...will probably just grow it as it is as even that should compound to my 50k target in a few years. That will be quite the accomplishment for me to be proud of.
  • #233
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:32pm Jul 1, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I only lost a couple hundred during my learning process and learned quickly after my first bust to use demo. I thought I'd figured it out with fib confluence back then hah. The current account I'm building on is based on another $100 principle...will probably just grow it as it is as even that should compound to my 50k target in a few years. That will be quite the accomplishment for me to be proud of.

Demo doesn't work for me, I can rock the Demo big time no, fear, emotions, greed!! so paying to learn has been my way.

$100 in to 50K, another poor person I guess, much the same plan as I'm on, but $1000 into $10000 in 6months is my current plan, compounding rocks thankfully.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #234
  • Jul 1, 2013 4:36pm Jul 1, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Demo doesn't work for me, I can rock the Demo big time no, fear, emotions, greed!! so paying to learn has been my way. $100 in to 50K, another poor person I guess, much the same plan as I'm on, but $1000 into $10000 in 6months is my current plan, compounding rocks thankfully.
Having a job and just doing set it and forget it orders has worked wonders for managing those issues. Too busy to sabotage my trades lol. Anyway my account is growing nicely with low risk trades and just seeing the equity curve nice and smoothly grow is more important to me than the actual numbers at the moment, as the payoff comes with consistency and patience. If it takes me 10 years to reach the lifestyle I want I'll be happy accepting that...retiring in my early 30s is much better than most people have it.
  • #235
  • Jul 1, 2013 5:46pm Jul 1, 2013 5:46pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Having a job and just doing set it and forget it orders has worked wonders for managing those issues. Too busy to sabotage my trades lol. Anyway my account is growing nicely with low risk trades and just seeing the equity curve nice and smoothly grow is more important to me than the actual numbers at the moment, as the payoff comes with consistency and patience. If it takes me 10 years to reach the lifestyle I want I'll be happy accepting that...retiring in my early 30s is much better than most people have it.
That's why I'm a bit more distant, more set and forget, not as as you I'd bet, but stops me over thinking and panic selling for 4pips, I'm getting 30 - 40 average these days.

Retiring early 30's, young git, I had that same plan, nearly did it aswell, self sabotoge is a bitch dude, atleast I never cock block myself

42 here, like to be full time trader end of the year area, and retired as Forex won't last for ever by 50 area.

But we shall see!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #236
  • Jul 1, 2013 7:02pm Jul 1, 2013 7:02pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} That's why I'm a bit more distant, more set and forget, not as as you I'd bet, but stops me over thinking and panic selling for 4pips, I'm getting 30 - 40 average these days. Retiring early 30's, young git, I had that same plan, nearly did it aswell, self sabotoge is a bitch dude, atleast I never cock block myself 42 here, like to be full time trader end of the year area, and retired as Forex won't last for ever by 50 area. But we shall see!!
Yeah I figured out early on that I have little interest in living the average paycheck lifestyle....I don't care to be rich but I do care to live life on my terms not a boss'. Also see way too many people who got screwed over by relying on retirement packages from companies or social security, scary stuff to be old and broke. Want to avoid that at all costs...
  • #237
  • Jul 1, 2013 7:44pm Jul 1, 2013 7:44pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Trend surfing with moving average crosses works great until the inevitable consolidation period where all your gains turn into losses and your pocket catches on fire. {quote} Big money is definitely watching, but they're not the ones who are putting their money on the line when price hits a moving average - that's you, the retail trader. Let me explain a little better - if the crowd effect for all these "tools" that inexperienced speculators use really worked profitably long term, then the crowd would be making money. Do you really believe...
Dear Kanzler with all respect to you views I have to strongly disagree with you here when you say buying high and selling low doesn't work in Forex. I have to say the whole retail thing that we keep hearing here and there and the fact that retailers buy at the top etc ... has nothing to do with reality of the market , in actual fact bankers , hedge funds and professional traders do lose money and go bankrupt too. Have you read about jesse livermore, orNicholas Leeson and Barings bank, what about Lehman Brothers and lots of others. In summary there is never right or wrong in the market and what you think dont work is so because it didnt work for you , on the other hand what you think works is only because it worked for you , retail , professionals or even banks it doesn't matter
at the end of the day what kills anybody in trading is emotions and that will kill a big bank too as it always did
  • #238
  • Jul 1, 2013 8:12pm Jul 1, 2013 8:12pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} Dear Kanzler with all respect to you views I have to strongly disagree with you here when you say buying high and selling low doesn't work in Forex. I have to say the whole retail thing that we keep hearing here and there and the fact that retailers buy at the top etc ... has nothing to do with reality of the market , in actual fact bankers , hedge funds and professional traders do lose money and go bankrupt too. Have you read about jesse livermore, orNicholas Leeson and Barings bank, what about Lehman Brothers and lots of others. In summary...
Well the perfect way is, you buy on the way up near the bottom and you sell on the way down, near the top, it's rarely that easy.


I understand how he trades, it's the other way to beat the markets, there are only 2 ways MA based and Supply and Demand, I trade both really, but not historic supply and demand, just dynamic for both as lazy.

Even Pro's get emotional and greedy and blow huge accounts at times, but it's rare compared to retail trades, like 10Million of us blew $100 ( discluding Comm's the broker took ) last year, the numbers are just stupid.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #239
  • Jul 1, 2013 8:36pm Jul 1, 2013 8:36pm
@shahroor Is there a reason you seem to have stopped your system development?
  • #240
  • Jul 2, 2013 12:49am Jul 2, 2013 12:49am
Quoting shahroor
{quote} Dear Kanzler with all respect to you views I have to strongly disagree with you here when you say buying high and selling low doesn't work in Forex. I have to say the whole retail thing that we keep hearing here and there and the fact that retailers buy at the top etc ... has nothing to do with reality of the market , in actual fact bankers , hedge funds and professional traders do lose money and go bankrupt too. Have you read about jesse livermore, orNicholas Leeson and Barings bank, what about Lehman Brothers and lots of others. In summary...
shahroor, buying high and selling low implies high risk and low reward. This is absolutely foolish - would you buy a big brand name television set you want when it's on sale or when the price is marked up? And if you wanted to re-sell that item for a flip, you certainly wouldn't be buying it when it's marked up!! Why is it different when we buy securities on the market?

Bankers, hedge funds and "professional traders" like you saw at UBS who go bankrupt do so because of poor practices such as high risk activities like martingale gambling and overleveraging a position on a single market, such as Greek bonds or the 2008 housing market. Really these cases have little to do with successful trading strategies unless you want to argue that any successful trading strategy is simply going to "stop working" some day and essentially call it all a gamble. If I believed that were the case, why bother trading at all?

Some things simply don't work. It's that way for a logical reason...regression to the mean for a pure moving average system should be an obvious one - backtest it on any system and you will find yourself a heavy loser due to fees. Blaming it on emotion is a way to place a scapegoat to mask the actual problem - a trading method that is simply unprofitable. You can have all the patience and discipline in the world to execute your plan but if your plan is to flip a coin it's not going to help you in the slightest, no matter how much you want to believe it will.
0 traders viewing now