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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #25,901
  • Jun 26, 2013 7:39am Jun 26, 2013 7:39am
Quoting xiaoxin
EU: bears in the control. PA moving towards my target. {image} I closed all trades except one mini lot. {image} This is the power of 4 Hour Strategy. I love it. I began to know how to hold my trade lots. Many thanks to Phillip Nel and trademin's help.
hey! that 's a very nice play, clean and supportive to all of us! congrat!
Yvon
  • #25,902
  • Edited 10:37pm Jun 26, 2013 7:44am | Edited 10:37pm
eurusd: price did hit 61.8% Fib retracement...there is a small fight to pull back up ...maybe another possibility to short again, will see...

EDIT: pair broke below Fib 61.8% (89sma)---the fight to pull back, rapid, just the time to get orders filled, profit already-price staying on 8 ema on the 4 hrs chart, fast lane...
EDIT: from the 4hrs chart: got out profit from the last pull back to the 8 ema: nice profit.
Yvon
  • #25,903
  • Edited 10:31am Jun 26, 2013 10:12am | Edited 10:31am
Patience pays.
Finally, it's coming to my target!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 99 KB


Green pips to ALL!
  • #25,904
  • Edited 3:07am Jun 27, 2013 2:45am | Edited 3:07am
Well... it was a nice day yesterday for the EURUSD traders....I believe

Yesterday (at 18:00 europe-time) there also was a MACD signal for a countertrade.
I thought...will I take it untill the ema8?! Well I didn't took it because the SL-area was +/-40pips and TP was arround 25pips (R:R was bad)


What's the next expectation as we follow the rules?

-price broke sma89 and a short test to the sma89(?) (few days ago)
-price broke sma200

following the rules...price tends to test the sma200 before following his path to the south.

Well am I correct with the interpretation of the rules in this market.....?! Or are the rules not mentioning the sma200 in this situation?!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,905
  • Jul 1, 2013 2:53pm Jul 1, 2013 2:53pm
Last days I was backtesting the last month (juni 2013) EUR/USD

I tried to follow the rules and made a nice pdf of it (well it's a huge one) I tried to follow the way Phill was do it one time in the Exercise

Just trying to put the rules...but without the 1 Houtr charts entries....


We had in total:

MACD gives 37 timas a signal

With 12 Tradeble signals

With 11 profit trades

With 1 lost trade

Total possible pips were in my way of decision arround 450 pips



Well it wasn't bad...If we can put this in real and take the same decissions...everything goes fine...the last month!!
Well take the same decissions....that's the problem

I wanted to finish this doc before my Holiday. For now I go to Iceland for a vacation and try to having fun there and let the EUR/USD for what it is Hopefully there isn't an eruption during my stay at Iceland...and the financial markets are still there when I'm back ....then......but only then....I can go on with the learning cylce...:nerd:

All of you good luck....and till laters!!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Juni2013.pdf   3.4 MB | 480 downloads
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,906
  • Edited 9:24am Jul 2, 2013 12:09am | Edited 9:24am
just got into a trade in AUDUSD-short, already a free ride...

got out with few pips gains. should have got more pips there but that's ok. considering the first target as the bottom of consolidation is ok.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h1-oanda-corporation-short-9204.png Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h4-oanda-corporation-4h.png Size: 157 KB
Yvon
  • #25,907
  • Jul 2, 2013 12:24am Jul 2, 2013 12:24am
Quoting HappyMe
Last days I was backtesting the last month (juni 2013) EUR/USD I tried to follow the rules and made a nice pdf of it (well it's a huge one) I tried to follow the way Phill was do it one time in the ExerciseJust trying to put the rules...but without the 1 Houtr charts entries.... We had in total: MACD gives 37 timas a signal With 12 Tradeble signals With 11 profit trades With 1 lost trade Total possible pips were in my way of decision arround 450 pips Well it wasn't bad...If we can put this in real and take the same decissions...everything goes fine...the...

Have a nice vacation, enjoy!
Yvon
  • #25,908
  • Jul 2, 2013 4:57am Jul 2, 2013 4:57am
Quoting HappyMe
Last days I was backtesting the last month (juni 2013) EUR/USD I tried to follow the rules and made a nice pdf of it (well it's a huge one) I tried to follow the way Phill was do it one time in the ExerciseJust trying to put the rules...but without the 1 Houtr charts entries.... We had in total: MACD gives 37 timas a signal With 12 Tradeble signals With 11 profit trades With 1 lost trade Total possible pips were in my way of decision arround 450 pips Well it wasn't bad...If we can put this in real and take the same decissions...everything goes fine...the...

Hi, Thanks for posting this. Went through the whole PDF file and must say I learned from it.
  • #25,909
  • Jul 2, 2013 8:14am Jul 2, 2013 8:14am
I find the Break of Zero and Zero Bounce trend most difficult to detect and trade. Many a times I thought it was happening but it did not so ended up losing the trade. The same applies for the EURUSD chart I have posted here. It isn't clear at the beginning of the very last candle if the price was going to break through the zero MACD line. Can anyone enlighten me with this issue? And tell me how you would have traded it and make some pips? Appreciate.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 34 KB
  • #25,910
  • Edited 10:07am Jul 2, 2013 9:09am | Edited 10:07am
Quoting Fuiyong
I find the Break of Zero and Zero Bounce trend most difficult to detect and trade. Many a times I thought it was happening but it did not so ended up losing the trade. The same applies for the EURUSD chart I have posted here. It isn't clear at the beginning of the very last candle if the price was going to break through the zero MACD line. Can anyone enlighten me with this issue? And tell me how you would have traded it and make some pips? Appreciate. {image}
My view:

The history of the trend is down and then there is a consolidation. So selling at the top of consolidation is ok.- this is a good point beside the rules.

second: selling when candle shows a tail pushing price down gets a favorable point also.

Considering the most significant move done by the pair was from 1.2847 to 1.3490. The pair now is in process of a retracement back to 1.2847. If we use FIB on it then the retracement is below (or knocking at the door of) 61.8%. So that level is now a resistance which shows a favorable point also for a possible down move.

Now let's see what the 1 hr chart shows:

the macd shows a Head and shoulders, which represent another point favorable to the downside direction.

There is already 4 points favourable to the downside which is very good signs of indication of the pair.

But the divergence of macd in the 4 hrs chart means that the pair could not necessary keep going down, this is a important factor in the decision process.
EDIT: I didn't see the divergence in HS on the 1 hr chart which is also pointing down, just draw a neckline...

hoping it is helpful,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h1-oanda-corporation-reason2.png Size: 174 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-oanda-corporation-reasons.png Size: 182 KB
Yvon
  • #25,911
  • Edited 4:09pm Jul 2, 2013 1:23pm | Edited 4:09pm
EURUSD:
Again, surprise, like the pair wanted to return at the bottom!---and made a move away on the 1 hr chart...
Involve in a short position on the move away(1 hr chart) 1.3009 out 1.2980
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: move away on the 1 hr.png Size: 266 KB
Yvon
  • #25,912
  • Edited 4:08pm Jul 2, 2013 1:50pm | Edited 4:08pm
When the price makes a Hs on the macd, then pull back again,(and move away) sometime there is a big move…
eurusd chart (1 hr)

The projection from the neck line to the highest price is about 56 pips or so.- it has been reached---I grabbed closed to 30 pips up to now.- ok for me.

comments are welcome,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h1-oanda-corporation-i-loke-those-moves.png Size: 158 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: PROJECTION REACHED.png Size: 284 KB
Yvon
  • #25,913
  • Jul 2, 2013 9:24pm Jul 2, 2013 9:24pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} My view: The history of the trend is down and then there is a consolidation. So selling at the top of consolidation is ok.- this is a good point beside the rules. second: selling when candle shows a tail pushing price down gets a favorable point also. Considering the most significant move done by the pair was from 1.2847 to 1.3490. The pair now is in process of a retracement back to 1.2847. If we use FIB on it then the retracement is below (or knocking at the door of) 61.8%. So that level is now a resistance which shows a favorable point...
Thank you Trademin for you reply. Yes that helps.
  • #25,914
  • Jul 2, 2013 10:13pm Jul 2, 2013 10:13pm
Quoting Fuiyong
{quote} Thank you Trademin for you reply. Yes that helps.
You are welcome Fuiyong.
Yvon
  • #25,915
  • Jul 3, 2013 5:29am Jul 3, 2013 5:29am
Traded EURUSD for Sell today. It was making a nice 45+ pips (observed in the last two bar). Then price decided to reverse and chart shows price almost about to touch the entry price. This is so frustrating and has happened many time and in the end I made no pip because price decided to reverse all the way to the entry price (after adjusted SL at entry level. Can some one tell me what to do to tackle this issue? Appreciate.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 34 KB
  • #25,916
  • Edited 8:44am Jul 3, 2013 8:21am | Edited 8:44am
Quoting Fuiyong
Traded EURUSD for Sell today. It was making a nice 45+ pips (observed in the last two bar). Then price decided to reverse and chart shows price almost about to touch the entry price. This is so frustrating and has happened many time and in the end I made no pip because price decided to reverse all the way to the entry price (after adjusted SL at entry level. Can some one tell me what to do to tackle this issue? Appreciate. {image}
Hi Fuiyong,
My view:


As you can see examples of consolidations are shown. Sometimes they will reach the same "range" when the pair breaks out from a consolidation. The formation that you showed initially( post 25915) is called "train station" or "oops!" by some other people…many by other names…So it price breaks out from a consolidation, "anticipation" is that pair could cover the same rage as the consolidation, which happens in this case.

maybe by showing chart with closes only, we can see better...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-oanda-corporation-thousand-words3.png Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-oanda-corporation-thousand-words (1).png Size: 63 KB
Yvon
  • #25,917
  • Edited 8:43am Jul 4, 2013 7:59am | Edited 8:43am
beautiful move down in EURUSD!
could there be some more pips to go down- took partial profit.
(from 1.2988 to 1.2896,)

projection from HS could be 130 pips down if neck line is broken, will see....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-oanda-corporation-took-it-late-but-ok.png Size: 60 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-oanda-corporation-projection-130-pips-down-aprox.png Size: 51 KB
Yvon
  • #25,918
  • Jul 4, 2013 11:12am Jul 4, 2013 11:12am
Hi I’ve got another “where to place Stoploss question” . I’ve been reading through the thread and this question has come up numerous times.

So here’s what I was thinking: Let’s suppose there is an important price number (00 or 50) or S/R line or TL and we place a “mental” stoploss say 10 pips above this level (suppose we are selling) and a real stoploss say of 300 pips in case of an emergency (earthquake, terror, computer crashes ect ect...). Suppose there is also no important news coming out. Suppose the price then goes against, we don’t close the trade unless the candle closes above our “mental” stoploss. This way “they” won’t get our stops. Has anyone tried this before? Please let me know. I’m still very new here.
  • #25,919
  • Jul 4, 2013 10:01pm Jul 4, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} Hi Fuiyong, My view: As you can see examples of consolidations are shown. Sometimes they will reach the same "range" when the pair breaks out from a consolidation. The formation that you showed initially( post 25915) is called "train station" or "oops!" by some other people…many by other names…So it price breaks out from a consolidation, "anticipation" is that pair could cover the same rage as the consolidation, which happens in this case. maybe by showing chart with closes only, we can see better... {image} {image}
Hi Thanks for your reply, again. Ok, I will to try to understand and apply it in my trading. Am going through it again to digest your explanation will post you questions later if need so. Thanks again.
  • #25,920
  • Jul 4, 2013 10:39pm Jul 4, 2013 10:39pm
Quoting Fuiyong
{quote} Hi Thanks for your reply, again. Ok, I will to try to understand and apply it in my trading. Am going through it again to digest your explanation will post you questions later if need so. Thanks again.
You are welcome Fuiyong.
Yvon
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