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Do you believe moving average systems work?

  • #181
  • Jun 30, 2013 1:56pm Jun 30, 2013 1:56pm
MAs work. You probably haven't figured out how to use them properly
  • #182
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:18pm Jun 30, 2013 2:18pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} This is no longer a "system" and uses some external judgment based on something other than moving averages. As a result it is objectively worthless. Your case study of the "turtles" proves absolutely nothing, except that at some point in time a group of traders got lucky and rode the late 1990s/early 2000s bull market. Lots of people made money during that time, just not all of them compounded their gains. Using moving averages by themselves as signals will return a negative value over time as reversion to the mean occurs. Continue thinking...

MA's or whatever should always be a tool, using a MA to see longer trend to me is better than randomly guessing, or atleast highlight when I'm counter trend so don't be greedy, using a MA with an envelope gives me a good stab at the markets effective range.

But it's a METHOD, not a automatic system, I played with EA's for ages, I do not believe a none discretionary automated system will work long term, the lack of profitable EA's around kinda proves this point.

MA's and Envelopes on the TF's I've tested them on, M1 and M5, although not great, off well some merit, I see ZERO merit in CandleStick patterns, RSI's, MACD's ( 2 MA's and there difference ) and all the rest of the crappola.

I'll take some merit over Hocus Pocus, I did toy with the idea of going Naked recently, but only got 5 lines on my chart, close enough.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #183
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:22pm Jun 30, 2013 2:22pm
Moving averages are just a piece of the puzzle; they are not the be-all / end-all solution.
  • #184
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:48pm Jun 30, 2013 2:48pm
Hi guys, hope you have a good week. We seem to be getting a bit hostile in here, I guess if it doesn't appeal to you get out and stay out, simples, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #185
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:54pm Jun 30, 2013 2:54pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} MA's or whatever should always be a tool, using a MA to see longer trend to me is better than randomly guessing, or atleast highlight when I'm counter trend so don't be greedy, using a MA with an envelope gives me a good stab at the markets effective range. But it's a METHOD, not a automatic system, I played with EA's for ages, I do not believe a none discretionary automated system will work long term, the lack of profitable EA's around kinda proves this point. MA's and Envelopes on the TF's I've tested them on, M1 and M5, although not great,...
Turveyd,

Candlesticks give clues about past price action, although the majority of them are unimportant in my trading and the few I do take note of are only to confirm that I was right about my prediction and must be in a very specific place. In particular, rejection candles such as pins and engulfs. Just my two cents, I don't want to give it all away here especially with such vile users lurking who by no means deserve success.

Quoting billytt
Hi guys, hope you have a good week. We seem to be getting a bit hostile in here, I guess if it doesn't appeal to you get out and stay out, simples, be good
The thread title invites discussion on moving averages, which is going to introduce conflicting opinions.
  • #186
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:55pm Jun 30, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} It says a lot that your hit rate is as good as one by a 9 year old girl. Did you read my post at the top of this page as to why that's going to be the case? You can put your head in the sand and enjoy your lucky run but it won't stop reality from hitting your account like a slab of concrete.
I think you are missing the point, I trade price action and open range with proper money. But like I say my girl put me onto something . I will show anyone and everyone how I trade but if /when I get a losing trade I will not say how I trade to correct it. that's why I have a high hit rate.
another thing my girl said was when I questioned her about a pair ranging/consolidating she simply said ,DONT TRADE IT THEN except for the first losing trade which cannot be helped. have a good week trading
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #187
  • Jun 30, 2013 3:06pm Jun 30, 2013 3:06pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Turveyd, Candlesticks give clues about past price action, although the majority of them are unimportant in my trading and the few I do take note of are only to confirm that I was right about my prediction and must be in a very specific place. In particular, rejection candles such as pins and engulfs. Just my two cents, I don't want to give it all away here especially with such vile users lurking who by no means deserve success. {quote} The thread title invites discussion on moving averages, which is going to introduce conflicting opinions....
If you slide the Open and Close time around then the candles will look different, there practically randomly formed, you need to look at multiple candles to spot supply / demand why I prefer Lower TF's, even then no guarantee direction will reverse, but got to play the odds smartly, get in a low as possible to maximise your profit and reduce the odds on the SL being hit / use a lower SL.

Opinions are good, hopefully we'll all learn something from 1 another.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #188
  • Jun 30, 2013 3:07pm Jun 30, 2013 3:07pm
MA's are a must for me. They give a great indication on support and resistance levels, trend directions etc..

However, as a sole indicator of entry/exit not so much lol.
  • #189
  • Jun 30, 2013 3:07pm Jun 30, 2013 3:07pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} I think you are missing the point, I trade price action and open range with proper money. But like I say my girl put me onto something . I will show anyone and everyone how I trade but if /when I get a losing trade I will not say how I trade to correct it. that's why I have a high hit rate. another thing my girl said was when I questioned her about a pair ranging/consolidating she simply said ,DONT TRADE IT THEN except for the first losing trade which cannot be helped. have a good week trading

Then, when do you start trading after it's started Trending again I presume, which means you have to miss the start of that then no guarantee it won't start again.


9 year olds have a way of keeping it simple, to me it's about keeping it simple, anything over complicated will burn you out!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #190
  • Jun 30, 2013 3:17pm Jun 30, 2013 3:17pm
TURVEYD,,,, hi bud you ok. I keep it simple I am always saying that, been saying it for years. as you know I visit these sites A to look for new trading ideas and B to collect information. The method I am trying out with MA is ,,, IF I hit 30 pips I will get out, it doesn't matter if a new trend starts and moves hundreds of pips or if I get in after one has started. my main trading is der der open range breakout and ib (price action).
At one time I was after making hundreds and hundreds of pips but I do not do that now, normal trading I hit 10 then compound for 10 and one last compound for another 10. I trade oil also but that's different, be good. I see the e/j is being cheeky lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #191
  • Jun 30, 2013 4:45pm Jun 30, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting billytt
TURVEYD,,,, hi bud you ok. I keep it simple I am always saying that, been saying it for years. as you know I visit these sites A to look for new trading ideas and B to collect information. The method I am trying out with MA is ,,, IF I hit 30 pips I will get out, it doesn't matter if a new trend starts and moves hundreds of pips or if I get in after one has started. my main trading is der der open range breakout and ib (price action). At one time I was after making hundreds and hundreds of pips but I do not do that now, normal trading I hit 10 then...
just watched topgear and it was good so i'm good, sadly back to work


I tried Oil, all slow and boring, then next tick it's moved 5bil pips, and your 20 SL is actually 5bil and your account is GONE awesome.

No set exit, I generally take the first stall / turn against me as i'm a wuss, for strong trend days plan is to hold, but they rarely look that way at the time so as of yet, not actually happened or it's cause a trade hit and I forget to check it and many hours / days have passed by
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #192
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:07pm Jun 30, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} just watched topgear and it was good so i'm good, sadly back to work I tried Oil, all slow and boring, then next tick it's moved 5bil pips, and your 20 SL is actually 5bil and your account is GONE awesome. No set exit, I generally take the first stall / turn against me as i'm a wuss, for strong trend days plan is to hold, but they rarely look that way at the time so as of yet, not actually happened or it's cause a trade hit and I forget to check it and many hours / days have passed by
That's what I like about you bud, you are honest.. I know as much as a dead badger regarding how the markets work and who is who but I set triggers and trade lol. Your right bout oil it hasn't been too good for ages but when it goes it is stupid, I had my pc tracking us oil waiting for spikes but the guy who programmed my ea is sailing around the world (for last couple of months) and I have a slight problem with it so I have to do it manually lol, luckily for me nothing has happened so hopefully he will return soon, unless he did a runner , be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #193
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:12pm Jun 30, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} That's what I like about you bud, you are honest.. I know as much as a dead badger regarding how the markets work and who is who but I set triggers and trade lol. Your right bout oil it hasn't been too good for ages but when it goes it is stupid, I had my pc tracking us oil waiting for spikes but the guy who programmed my ea is sailing around the world (for last couple of months) and I have a slight problem with it so I have to do it manually lol, luckily for me nothing has happened so hopefully he will return soon, unless he did a runner...

I'm a marmite guy, 1/2 the people like me cause I'm honest and the other 1/2 hate me cause I'm honest, HUMANS!! especially WOMAN!!

If you watch Topgear just and what James May went through on his sailing trip, where the weather was not freezing, then you'd never want to go sailing ever.

Good never, just never get caught
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #194
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:12pm Jun 30, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting Eurusdd
MAs work. You probably haven't figured out how to use them properly
your statement is very true my friend
  • #195
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:14pm Jun 30, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting Troikaone1
Moving averages are just a piece of the puzzle; they are not the be-all / end-all solution.
I really like your way of thinking
  • #196
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:15pm Jun 30, 2013 5:15pm
I appreciate the different views here which brings diversity and creativity but lets keep it friendly too
No one is right or wrong again and everyone has his own view based on his experiences
  • #197
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:16pm Jun 30, 2013 5:16pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I'm a marmite guy, 1/2 the people like me cause I'm honest and the other 1/2 hate me cause I'm honest, HUMANS!! especially WOMAN!! If you watch Topgear just and what James May went through on his sailing trip, where the weather was not freezing, then you'd never want to go sailing ever. Good never, just never get caught
I been out on boat today, I don't watch top gear as I cannot stand that tosser j Clarkson, I have met r Hammond he is ok and that's that lol, e/j is like watching paint dry so I guess something will happen lol, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #198
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:18pm Jun 30, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting shahroor
I appreciate the different views here which brings diversity and creativity but lets keep it friendly too No one is right or wrong again and everyone has his own view based on his experiences
lol, you are right but like G Orwell wrote some people in here are more right than others (on the same lines ) lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #199
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:20pm Jun 30, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} lol, you are right but like G Orwell wrote some people in here are more right than others (on the same lines ) lol
lol
  • #200
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:34pm Jun 30, 2013 5:34pm
nothing happened regarding the chart I posted on Friday, it looked like e/j was dropping for me to enter a trade, BUT like I said it was near Friday close so that was a no no. right now the e/j is about to break an outside bar on the hour so this is good for the price action guys. I am not trading just watching ,playing my blues harp and having a beer
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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